RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #62 (Pau Gasol)

[Doctor MJ]

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
WintaSoldier1
ZeppelinPage

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Chauncey Billups


Pau Gasol


Dikembe Mutombo


Robert Parish


Willis Reed


As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet

[Joao Saraiva]

Vote Billups

I simply loved his game. He was a master controlling tempo. He was a good enough playmaker, mr big shot, and in my mind he took a lot of times the correct option on offense.

He used his size to post up smaller defenders, could create space for his own 3 or midrange shot, and was a good PG on defense.

Honestly I don't find many flaws in his game, and his impact was definitely felt as he kept the Pistons an offensive threat and made the Nuggets take a huge lip once he got there.

The 04 finals were a thing of beauty as he was a master dismantling the Lakers, I'd like to highlight that has the highest point of his career. Wish they had won 05, taking down two dinasties would have been epic but unfortunately Robert Horry happened.

Alternate Pau Gasol

Nomination Ben Wallace

[Joao Saraiva]

Very happy to see Billups on the poll along with Pau Gasol. Feel a bit sorry for Mutombo but I'm still higher on Parish and Ben Wallace before him.

[AEnigma]

VOTE: Dikembe Mutombo
Alternate: Pau Gasol
NOMINATE: Elvin Hayes
AltNom: Vince Carter (prefer Paul George but not going to tie myself to two names with shaky to no support)

Reed has the best peak (“weak MVP” where everyone else peaks more at like decent all-NBA), but the length of his prime and career is too much to overlook. Probably okay with him in the top 75, but still too early for me.

Billups has a solid peak/prime but I only give him nine truly relevant years. Dikembe has ten to eleven (depending on how you feel about his rookie season), and I would still probably side with his 1994 over 2006/08 Billups.

Again would welcome a more committed comparison of Parish and Pau, although currently I am leaning toward Pau for having a more complementary skillset, shouldering a larger share of minutes in the postseason, and playing in a better and more competitive league. I give both a meaningful career length of roughly 17 seasons, with similar quality peaks.

I stand by Hayes as the most significant player yet to be admitted.

[trelos6]

Vote: Dikembe Mutombo

I have Dikembe as the 7th best defender of all time, and 5th amongst centers. His defensive value was phenomenal, and that puts him above the other centers on the board. Also had a few seasons where he was a good rim finisher. If Thurmond just got in, I think it’s most def arguable that Mutombo was a better defensive player for career value.

Alt: Robert Parish

All hail the chief.

Nomination: Ben Wallace

Ben is my 4th best defensive center of all time, and 6th best defensive player overall. He is negative on offense, so it's a testament to his fantastic defense that he should be rated in the 60's. He has the 2nd best single season defensive peak, IMO.

Alt. Nom: Rasheed Wallace

Ball don’t lie.

[penbeast0]

Vote: Chauncey Billups: Had a slow start to his career, never a big assist guy. But, like Walt Frazier, he ran a very good balanced offense, was a highly efficient scorer at decent volumes, and stepped up in the NBA finals. Not Frazier on defense but well above average defensively as a PG.

Alt Vote: Pau Gasol: I feel like his overall game and longevity are enough of an edge over Willis Reed to push him here. His titles with the Lakers, who had Kobe but otherwise were unimpressive (never a big fan of Odom or Bynum) and his versatility (successful at both PF and C, unlike Reed whose team underperformed when they tried him next to Bellamy) are also plusses.


Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. The most 1st team All-Defense awards, best player on two Nugget teams that had the best record in the NBA (though both came up short in the playoffs), great efficiency without being just an inside scorer, excellent passer, decent offensive rebounder, defensively good at blocking out rather than getting the board, good shot blocker for a forward, good steals, could play up to the 5 or down to the 2, limited minutes because of a physical condition but probably the greatest glue guy in the history of the NBA.

Alt Nomination Adrian Dantley -- like Gervin, his case is pure scoring but the statistics are so shiny. High volume, super efficient scorer; hard to believe a team couldn't be built to take advantage of this incredible ability.

[trex_8063]

Induction Vote: Pau Gasol (sigh.....again)

*mostly-durable 18-year career (ALL 18 years at least fair/useful/playable), peaking as an All-NBA level player;
**was probably at least a borderline or fringe All-Star level player (like at least top 25-30 in the league) for literally 15 seasons;
***was Robin on 2 title teams (3-4 contenders);
****is 32nd all-time in career rs WS (tied for 43rd all-time in playoffs), and 30th since 1973 in rs VORP (38th in playoffs).....

The only guys ahead of him in rs WS are Dan Issel (weaker era [some in ABA], and notably weak defensive guy), and the guy I'm nominating [Robert Parish]. And there are only six guys not yet inducted ahead of him in playoff WS (one of them is Robert Horry, fwiw; another is Horace Grant, and another is Al Horford......three guys for whom I think most would agree have no case above Pau).
The ONLY guy ahead of him in VORP [since 1973]---barely, by just 0.4---is Vince Carter. There are only four guys not yet inducted ahead of him in career playoff VORP (and again, one of them is Robert Horry; another is Horford).

McHale's inducted at #48, iirc, though I have a hard time making the case [to myself] for McHale > Pau, given Pau's superior passing, turnover economy, rebounding, and meaningful longevity (all occurring in what is likely a marginally better league, too). Similar individual accolades and team accomplishments to McHale, as well. McHale suffers the same lower-than-expected impact signals, fwiw.
I hope Pau doesn't have long to wait to be inducted. Seems a head-scratcher that the above resume should potentially pushed out of the top 60 (particularly with an Olympic/international career to potentially function as tie-breaker consideration???).


Though likely the worst defensive player on the ballot, he's fairly clearly the best offensive player here (as discussed in the #60 thread), with the best longevity of anyone except Parish.

In very broad/crude breakdowns, I rank the candidates as follows....

Offensively: Billups > Pau > Reed > Parish >> Mutombo
Defensively: Mutombo >>> Reed > Parish > Billups/Pau (hard to say, since comparing a PG and a C)
Longevity: Parish > Pau > Billups >/= Mutombo >>>> Reed


Alternate vote: Robert Parish
Substantial-seeming defensive imprint early in his career; blossomed into a solid scorer, upped his output [with NO relevent loss in efficiency] to fill the gap in '89 [no Bird] more than Kevin McHale did (and at the age of 35).

He played more rs games than anyone in this game's history, and did so with a career PER of 19.2, .154 WS/48, +1.5 BPM, and a +9 net rating. Honestly, think about that a moment.

For purposes of any potential run-off, I rank them Gasol > Parish > Billups > Mutombo > Reed.



Nomination: Elvin Hayes
Another guy with sizable defensive imprint, decent longevity, and scored an awful lot of points (even if it was mostly on poor(ish) efficiency). Hard to argue against his relevance to the game's history at this stage of the list.


Alt. Nomination: (holds nose) Allen Iverson??
It's crowded by this point on my list; would also seriously consider switching to Bob Cousy, Damian Lillard, Vince Carter, or TMac, depending upon prevailing winds.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Y’all are committed lol

[HeartBreakKid]

My vote is for Dikembe Mutumbo – I think his impact signals are quite alarming (in a good way). It’s quite interesting watching the Nuggets make their legendary run and seeing the anchor that Mutumbo was for that. Hes also interesting in the “defense doesn’t matter as much as offense” debates because he played alongside peak Iverson as an older man, and often was better than him in the post season during their big run. Anyway, versus the field, it seems like Mutumbo is not only a top ten defender of all time, but in serious consideration for top 5. Even if he was mediocre on offense, that’s more than enough to put him over some other guys.



My alternate vote is for Willis Reed – It’s between him and Alonzo for some of the last elite two way, 1st option type of bigs. I’m not actually sure if he’s better than Alonzo, but I felt like I’ve underrated him in the past and I may be overcompensating for it.


The others

Robert Parish - I don't think he's a top 100 guy. If I can hear an argument for him that isn't based on longevity that could be interesting, but it doesn't seem like he is "good enough" for my criteria.

Chauncey Billups - I like him a lot, very underrated playmaker - kind of unfairly branded as a glorified 3 and D guy. I don't think he's at the level of Gasol/Reed/Mutumbo though, too much size impact down low.

Pau Gasol – Pau is incredibly well rounded and has heroics, but I think he gets a bit too much credit for being a “2nd guy”. I think there are a lot of 1st guys who are stereotyped of not being able to play well with other stars, and I don’t really buy it. I don’t care much for longevity either, and we can’t take into account international play, so Gasol doesn’t rank that high compared to the players available. I think Thurmond's defense might be enough of an outlier for me to take them over Pau for example. Isiah was able to anchor elite offenses due to his ability to facilitate and score at a high level. I think DPOY caliber defense is really hard to beat, and an offensive oriented center going up against an all time great PG is equally hard.





My nomination for Cliff Hagan - I feel this is a consistent pick with my lack of importance on longevity.



Cliff Hagan has some real playoff heroics and is perhaps the biggest catalyst to the Hawks only title. He has a couple of years where he is the playoff hero. He never quite plays at that level for the rest of his career, but he is still good scorer for his era, just not eyepopping like 58 and to a lesser extent 59.

I think most of the players after him typically more regular season guys (at least the guys who are going to be getting votes soon). I'm going to favor someone who had a 05 Manu like run here.

My alternate nomination is for Bill Walton

[Samurai]

Vote for #62: Willis Reed. MVP, two-time Finals MVP, and five-time All NBA team member (one first team, four second teams). While not a shot blocker, he was still and otherwise excellent defender (All NBA Defensive First Team in 1970). Finished in the top 20 in points/game six times and in rebounds/game seven times. His primary drawback is a lack of longevity and in that regards, I think he may be a victim of his era; with better training and medical/surgical knowledge, he could have had better longevity.

Alternate vote: Robert Parish. Elite longevity with more RS games played than anyone in NBA/ABA history. Solid scorer with 17 consecutive years having double digits in points/game. Solid defender with 9 seasons in the top 20 in DRtg, leading the league once. Solid rebounder, leading the league in rebound % once and 16 seasons in the top 20. All in all, just a really solid player who gave Father Time a good run for his money.

Nomination: Bobby Jones. Yes I have reservations about his lack of longevity and durability. But I'm pretty sure that I would take Jones and his reduced minutes over Draymond if I were drafting a team, so seeing Green get selected convinced me to consider him. Gotta admit that there is bias here since Jones is one of my favorite players of all time. Despite averaging less than 30 minutes/game during his NBA career, he still has ten All Defensive First Team awards and one Second Team selection (in his second to last season averaging only 20 minutes/game). He was nicknamed The Secretary of Defense for good reason. He didn't shoot much but he was highly efficient, leading the league in FG% three times and finishing in the top 20 in TS% nine times. But as good as he was at playing basketball, how he conducted himself may have been even more admirable. He was always a gentleman with honor; he didn't drink, smoke or use profanity, always raised his hand when called for a foul - even telling a ref who mistakenly called a foul on a teammate that he was the one who actually committed the foul, even though that was his fifth foul! When teammates tried to show him ways to "cheat" by grabbing an opponent's jersey or committing a foul when the ref wasn't looking, he adamantly refused to do so. He would reply "if I have to play defense by holding on, that's when I quit." Teammate Dr J described Jones as "a player who's totally selfless, who runs like a deer, jumps like a gazelle, plays with his head and heart each night, and then walks away from the court as if nothing happened." And former teammate Charles Barkley said "if everyone in the world was like Bobby Jones, the world wouldn't have any problems."

Alternate nomination: Sam Jones. Not at all sure on this one. Ten rings but some will take that with a grain of salt for being Russell's teammate. Three-time All NBA Second Team (cursed by playing guard at the same time that Oscar and West were in their primes) and had three top ten finishes in MVP voting. Seven top twenty finishes in both points/game and TS% indicates that he was not only a scoring threat but an efficient shooter as well. I don't have a good feel on how good he was on defense; he had 9 top twenty finishes in DWS but Russell was obviously the primary driver of the team's excellent defense and KC Jones typically drew the assignment of defending the opposing team's primary backcourt scorer. One of the greatest bank shot artists of all-time; he was banking in shots before Tim Duncan was even born.

[trex_8063]

Reed vs Gasol
I'm going to start with a comparison on offense; and the super-short summary is: I would be comfortably rating Gasol the better offensive player among the two of them.


As scorers, it’s very close, imo.

Low-post scoring is probably a small edge to Gasol. Neither is a McHale-like savant down there, though Pau is a bit more savvy in terms of using pumps and step-thrus (“up and unders”) or similar. They’re otherwise both fairly vanilla there (lot of basic jump-hooks, etc). Pau probably worked in the post more (more his wheelhouse of scoring).
Very similar FT-shooters (especially if curving toward league norms [eras]), though I believe Reed is the better mid-range shooter. It was certainly more his "bread-n-butter": taking LOTS of catch-n-shoots, face-up jumpers out of the triple threat, or sporadic fadeaways or off of one-dribble moves toward the basket. And he was somehow scoring significantly above league avg TS% while taking so many mid-range shots.

In my limited sample of game-tracking [<7 games, fwiw], he hit 49.3% [33 of 67] from between 10-23' (which constituted nearly 57% of his FG attempts, btw). He was money from 10-16', fwiw, though his accuracy beyond 16' suffers; and was at least semi-respectable in the 3-10' range, too (nearly 43%, which is okay considering these are always heavily contested shots).

I was hedging toward Reed as perhaps a marginally better scorer, initially. But then I noted Pau peaked at higher pts/100 rates [even era-adjusted] as the focal point of the offense, and did so while maintaining rTS% comparable to what prime Reed was doing in a more “ensemble” scoring role.

Some would argue Reed's lower scoring rate is because the Holzman system spread the ball around, taking away some of Reed’s shots. No doubt this is true, yet this also meant his shots were more “selective” [or “good”], resulting in improved efficiency.
However, his peak year [by far] in rTS% is +7.11% in '69.
Pau edges him here, too, peaking at +7.27% rTS [substantially higher in raw TS%, fwiw] in his own favourable situation (in triangle next to Kobe).
Career and prime rTS% are very comparable (though again: with Pau on slightly higher scoring rates, even era-adjusted).

But being stubborn about being pushed off my original pre-supposition, I thought: Reed was more playoff resilient, right?
Meh, maybe not........for I looked it up and actually [on average]: he suffers MORE decline in efficiency than Pau did in the post-season.

So I’m not sure my initial inclination was actually correct at all. I think Pau Gasol is probably the marginally better scorer.


And then Pau is a substantially better passer than Reed.

Reed [to my eye] didn’t do a lot besides kick it back out for a reboot if he wasn’t going to shoot. Might find an open man out of a rare double-team, or sometimes he’d kick to an open man, or otherwise hit someone on a basic ball-reversal or similar, or perhaps even an outlet pass. But he just wasn’t a notable half-court passer at all, is what I’m saying. Pau could actually find cutters, or make other more “sophisticated” passes in the half-court, and fwiw has a career avg of 5.0 ast/100 (has FIVE seasons >6.0; whereas Reed doesn't have ANY seasons even as high as 3.0/100).

Ball-control: Pau might be the best of the bunch here, too.
Reed, based on my limited sample of game logs (~6.85 games worth [8 different games (mostly playoffs), but some are partials]) has a mTOV% of 9.38%.

Pau’s rs figure is 8.58% (and it gets marginally better [lower] in his playoff sample).
Comparing across era’s gets a bit dicey, though I’ve got absolutely NOTHING to suggest Reed was better in terms of ball control......or offensive rebounding, fwiw, which likely also leans in Pau's favour.

So I’m left with the conclusion that Pau is comfortably the best offensive player between the two (and perhaps not even overly close)



Defensively, the relationship is flipped: Pau’s clearly the weaker defender between the two, although I think his weakness there has been overstated by some, for instance zeroing in on a horrible defensive on/off one year [a year he was tasked with being the offensive 1st option, fwiw] where his near-exclusive sub was Bo Outlaw: a remarkable per-minute defensive PF/C (one of the best of his generation, on a per-minute basis). Pau's DRAPM's have never been profoundly bad (and sporadically were even very modest positives).

Reed was a solid pnr defender (at least for the era), attentive in a rotational sense (again, at least relative to era), perhaps solid(ish) as a post-defender, provides a little rim protection, boxes out well (though arguably still a somewhat weak rebounding C). He's merely good (perhaps even "very good", at his best) defensively; not great.

Reed might get some points for leadership/enforcer intangibles, fwiw.

So in terms of peak, I'd probably be willing to give Reed the benefit of the doubt; but anyone suggesting the gap [over Gasol] is huge is flat kidding themselves, imo.
Which brings us to some consideration of what they realistically contribute over the course of their full careers.


I know some of you don’t care about this [longevity, or any related argument]……criteria/philosophy differences. This is pretty relevant, however [imo]; I just don't see how we can fully get around it.
From a purely practical (“championship odds”) standpoint, in a vacuum (no guarantees of what kind of support you’d get to put around him, or even which era or league-parity environment, league-size environment you’re talking about)........Is Willis Reed better than Pau by enough of a margin that you’d take his 5-year prime stretch [‘67-’71] (because his prime really is that short) over the 10-year span of ‘03-’12 for Pau?

Does anyone honestly think he’s THAT much better, that those 5 years give you a better title shot (in a vacuum) than a decade of Pau?
For me, that’s beyond a hard sell. It’s a flat no [and obviously so] to me.

And then there are still the other non-prime years.......
Are the other five non-prime years of Reed (TWO of which he barely plays, because of injury) worth more than the EIGHT other non-prime years of Pau (multiple of which are at borderline All-Star level)? Almost assuredly not.


Anyway, I hate that this boiled down to a matter of philosophy/criteria, but I guess that’s often going to be the case. The longevity of quality just ends up winning out (and so obviously) for me.

Reed is a peculiar case to my sensibilities, tbh. Is it just that he "ticks more boxes" people like to see ticked? Like the 2 FMVP's (at least one of which is fairly obviously not deserved [above Walt Frazier])? Or the MVP award?
Their respective career values otherwise just don't seem overly close. That's my 2c on it anyway.

[iggymcfrack]

Vote: Pau Gasol
47th all time in points, 29th all-time in rebounds, 32nd all-time in both WS and VORP. Playoff riser who showed the ability to get it done as both a #1 and a #2.

Alternate: Willis Reed
MVP caliber player who got it done in the playoffs for rings. His longevity issues were actually caused by him dedicating himself to the team and prioritizing a championship over future health.

Nominate: Vince Carter
Tremendous total career value as he’s 29th all-time in VORP, easily the best of any player left. Very underrated prime too. From age 23-29, he had a playoff VORP of 7.2 which would rank 7th all-time if it was a career number trailing only Jordan, Jokic, LeBron, Kawhi, Giannis, and Magic.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Does anyone honestly think he’s THAT much better, that those 5 years give you a better title shot (in a vacuum) than a decade of Pau?
For me, that’s beyond a hard sell. It’s a flat no [and obviously so] to me.

And then there are still the other non-prime years.......
Are the other five non-prime years of Reed (TWO of which he barely plays, because of injury) worth more than the EIGHT other non-prime years of Pau (multiple of which are at borderline All-Star level)? Almost assuredly not.


Anyway, I hate that this boiled down to a matter of philosophy/criteria, but I guess that’s often going to be the case. The longevity of quality just ends up winning out (and so obviously) for me.

Reed is a peculiar case to my sensibilities, tbh. Is it just that he "ticks more boxes" people like to see ticked? Like the 2 FMVP's (at least one of which is fairly obviously not deserved [above Walt Frazier])? Or the MVP award?
Their respective career values otherwise just don't seem overly close. That's my 2c on it anyway.

Vote: Pau Gasol
47th all time in points, 29th all-time in rebounds, 32nd all-time in both WS and VORP. Playoff riser who showed the ability to get it done as both a #1 and a #2.

In reference to trex's underline question, I don't think it's necessarily an easy sell, but I think you can certainly make the argument, yes. The reason is, I think I disagree with Iggy's underlined point - I don't think Pau DID "get it done" as a #1. Assuming "as a #1" is referring to his Memphis years.

Setting aside the pre-trade portion of 07-08, Gasol was in Memphis for six full seasons. Here are the team's records and SRS for those six seasons:

01-02: 23-59, -6.74
02-03: 28-54, -2.60
03-04: 50-32, 2.95
04-05: 45-37, 2.63
05-06: 49-33, 3.74
06-07: 22-60, -4.44

So they're in the cellar the first two years, then they have three significantly better years where they make the playoffs and lose in the first round, and then they go back to the cellar for 06-07.

So first off, just on the surface, they never got out of the first round with Pau as the #1. But it's not just that. Those three years they made the playoffs? Those were the three years Shane Battier was on the team. You look at the team's rel ORtgs and rel DRtgs, they were clearly winning on the defensive end(remember with these ratings, positive is good for offense, negative is good for defense):

2003-04: rel ORtg(+1.9), rel DRtg(-0.7)
2004-05: rel ORtg(-0.6), rel DRtg(-3.2)
2005-06: rel ORtg(-0.3), rel DRtg(-4.6)

and Battier was the anchor there. All three seasons they played together, Battier had a higher RS on/off:

2003-04 - Battier(+3.8), Gasol(-1.3)
2004-05 - Battier(+10.8), Gasol(+2.9)
2005-06 - Battier(+9.2), Gasol((+4.9)

Battier also had a higher RS+PO RAPM two out of three years.

Now, it's also true that Gasol had a higher PO on/off all three seasons, but my point is really about what made those teams good enough to make the playoffs in the first place.

Pau's box numbers look good in all three seasons, but there is sufficient impact data to suggest that Battier may have been more responsible for the relative success the team had in those three seasons than Gasol.

Now, with regards to Reed...it's true that the Knicks didn't get great until Frazier and Holzman arrived. But look at the team's records and SRS from 68-69 to 73-74:

1969: 54-28, 5.48
1970: 60-22, 8.42
1971: 52-30, 5.05
1972: 48-34, 2.28
1973: 57-25, 6.07
1974: 49-33, 2.42

Look especially at the SRS. Those two years where it's significantly lower than the other four seasons, 72 and 74? Those are the seasons where Reed barely played(11 games in 72 and 19 games in 74). Is that just a coincidence?

There is unfortunately less data from back then from which to determine how important Reed was vs Frazier(or others) to those teams, so it's tough. But I do think the data shows that Gasol wasn't great as a #1 in Memphis. To be fair, the Knicks weren't very good with Reed(and Bellamy) before Frazier arrived either. So perhaps we're looking at two guys who were more effective as ceiling-raisers than floor-raisers. They were both great in that respect, but the Knicks' SRS drops coinciding with Reed being out plus my feeling that Reed was a two-way player in a way that Gasol was not, leads to me to lean towards Reed again here.

Note that I don't think this is a home-run argument or anything(and you can certainly argue well in the other direction, as trex has), but I think it's a valid one at least.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote 1 - Willis Reed
Vote 2 - Robert Parish
Nomination 1 - Sam Jones
Nomination 2 - Elvin Hayes

On their way to the championship in 1970, Wllis helped the Knicks knock off two of the most dominant centers of all time in Wilt and Kareem. Undersized for a center at 6’9”, his brute strength and good defensive instincts were still able to deter them. He also had a great outside shot for a big man, which was very effective against Wilt in his later years. He would again get the best of Wilt in '73 when the Knicks took down the Lakers in the finals.

I don’t have a problem with questioning his 2 finals MVPs relative to Clyde’s level of play in those series. However, I don’t doubt that Reed was a player whose impact went beyond the box score, and I’d say that’s what voters were recognizing when selecting him as finals MVP in both seasons. This was best exemplified in the famous moment when reed came through the tunnel in game 7 of the '70 finals:

Watch on YouTube

As the Lakers were warming up, they froze as they saw Willis coming onto the court (he had previously missed game 6 with a torn muscle in his thigh, and no one expected him to play). He hit his first 2 jumpers, and the rest was history. Dramatic narrative? Of course, but Clyde himself said they wouldn’t have had the confidence to go out there and perform like they did without their captain leading the way. When you have the talent to back it up as willis did, that makes a difference.

He was certainly deserving of winning regular season MVP in 1970, leading the Knicks to a 60-22 record and the #1 ranked SRS in the league. He put together season averages of 21.7 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 2 APG, 50.7 FG, 75.6% FT, 55.2% TS, +4.1 rTS.

From '69-'73, reed would anchor a Knicks defense that ranked in the top 3rd of the league for 4 seasons:

'69 - 4th
'70 - 1st
'71 - 2nd
'73 - 4th

The season after reed retired, the Knicks dropped to 11th (of 18) in DRtg. Yes, I'm aware there are other factors in the high DRtgs given the overall strength of the rosters, and this drop off the season he retired included other roster subtractions. Even still, his impact on that end of the floor was clear, as was the ability to lead a group of players to what’s often considered one of the best stretches of “team play” in NBA history.

[trex_8063]

Thank you for the thoughtful reply. Going to respond to just a couple points.....

In reference to trex's underline question, I don't think it's necessarily an easy sell, but I think you can certainly make the argument, yes. The reason is, I think I disagree with Iggy's underlined point - I don't think Pau DID "get it done" as a #1. Assuming "as a #1" is referring to his Memphis years.

Setting aside the pre-trade portion of 07-08, Gasol was in Memphis for six full seasons. Here are the team's records and SRS for those six seasons:

01-02: 23-59, -6.74
02-03: 28-54, -2.60
03-04: 50-32, 2.95
04-05: 45-37, 2.63
05-06: 49-33, 3.74
06-07: 22-60, -4.44

So they're in the cellar the first two years, then they have three significantly better years where they make the playoffs and lose in the first round, and then they go back to the cellar for 06-07.

Okay.
Now let's do the same for Willis Reed (to see how he did as 1st option before Frazier came into his prime, as this was only vaguely alluded to [but not shown] in your post, which instead used only the years to paint Reed in the best possible light).....

'65: 31-49, -3.26 SRS
'66: 30-50, -2.31 SRS (was only 3rd-option on offense that year)
'67: 36-45, -2.74 SRS
'68: 43-39, +1.78 SRS (rookie Walt Frazier here)

Is ^^this looking like he did any better than Gasol in Memphis?
It's not like he didn't have some decent(ish) players in these years (Dick Barnett, Walt Bellamy, and Dick Van Arsdale from '66 onward, Red Holzman as coach beginning ~third of the way through '68 season).

So first off, just on the surface, they never got out of the first round with Pau as the #1.

Ditto Willis Reed prior to Frazier/Holzman; except Reed only got into the PS twice (one of those because EIGHT of 10 teams made the playoffs in '67).

But it's not just that. Those three years they made the playoffs? Those were the three years Shane Battier was on the team.

They were the years Barnett, Bellamy, DVA were on the team with Reed (plus rookie Frazier and Holzman in the second one).

You look at the team's rel ORtgs and rel DRtgs, they were clearly winning on the defensive end(remember with these ratings, positive is good for offense, negative is good for defense):

2003-04: rel ORtg(+1.9), rel DRtg(-0.7)
2004-05: rel ORtg(-0.6), rel DRtg(-3.2)
2005-06: rel ORtg(-0.3), rel DRtg(-4.6)

and Battier was the anchor there. All three seasons they played together, Battier had a higher RS on/off:

2003-04 - Battier(+3.8), Gasol(-1.3)
2004-05 - Battier(+10.8), Gasol(+2.9)
2005-06 - Battier(+9.2), Gasol((+4.9)

Battier also had a higher RS+PO RAPM two out of three years.

I might note that the '14 and '22 Golden State Warriors were both notably better on defense than on offense. And in '14, Steph Curry's on/off was +15.2, while Klay's was +15.6 and Iggy's was +18.0. So was Iggy the true engine of that team's success?

But anyway.....
Who was the notable offensive help Gasol had in Memphis? Mike Miller? James Posey in one weird outlier year in '04? Jason Williams (fun to watch, but not exactly a prize). These definitely are not barn-burner offensive names, and those really are the best ones I can mention.

Meanwhile, look at the notable defensive help Battier had (good defenders, guys who were getting playing time on any NBA franchise at all because of their defense [mostly, at least].....
'04: James Posey, Bo Outlaw, Stromile Swift, Bonzi Wells
'05: Bonzi Wells, Brian Cardinal, Stromile Swift, James Posey
'06: Eddie Jones (at 34 years old, he'd faded to average on offense)
(not sure if Lorenzen Wright or Jake Tsakalidis could be called a decent defenders, but they also were around)


So.......it's kinda no wonder they were better defensively, no?
Especially considering no one is arguing Gasol is an ideal or awesome 1st-option offensive player (nor is it necessary out here at #62). There AREN'T a ton of those guys left at this stage, and most have flash in the pan sized careers and/or are notably awful defensive players [e.g. Damian Lillard].

Gasol was a capable(ish) 1st-option, and was an AWESOME, near-ideal 2nd-option [on a contender] offensive player.......and he was that really consistently for a really long time (prime lasting a solid decade at least; 18-years of usefulness in the NBA [all in a very competitive era]). That's his case.

Now, with regards to Reed...it's true that the Knicks didn't get great until Frazier and Holzman arrived. But look at the team's records and SRS from 68-69 to 73-74:

1969: 54-28, 5.48
1970: 60-22, 8.42
1971: 52-30, 5.05
1972: 48-34, 2.28
1973: 57-25, 6.07
1974: 49-33, 2.42

Look especially at the SRS. Those two years where it's significantly lower than the other four seasons, 72 and 74? Those are the seasons where Reed barely played(11 games in 72 and 19 games in 74). Is that just a coincidence?

And he was probably the second-best player for most of those teams [at least in the playoffs], despite the MVP and such.

Let's look at Pau's teams where he had great help [and was the 2nd-best player]:

'08: 57-25, +7.34 SRS (trip to Finals)
'09: 65-17, +7.11 SRS (NBA title)
'10: 57-25, +4.78 SRS (NBA title)
'11: 57-25, +6.01 SRS (lost 2nd round to eventual champion)

......also noting they were 42-40 (+0.24 SRS) in '07 without him; then 28-15 (on pace for 53-54 wins) before he arrived in '08, 29-10 (on pace for 61 wins) after he arrived.


Anyway, just by way of counterpoint.

[LA Bird]

Vote: Pau Gasol
Nom: Elvin Hayes

Edit: Added votes

Defensively, the relationship is flipped: Pau’s clearly the weaker defender between the two, although I think his weakness there has been overstated by some, for instance zeroing in on a horrible defensive on/off one year [a year he was tasked with being the offensive 1st option, fwiw] where his near-exclusive sub was Bo Outlaw: a remarkable per-minute defensive PF/C (one of the best of his generation, on a per-minute basis). Pau's DRAPM's have never been profoundly bad (and sporadically were even very modest positives).

Assuming this is following from our discussion back in thread #55, I should point out I posted a 3 year defensive on/off over 04-06 while it is actually you who zeroed in on the one year where Gasol had a good backup in Outlaw as justification for his on/offs. Interestingly, you didn't mention the year where Gasol had an awful replacement in rookie Hakim Warrick, who is literally the worst player ever in multiple RAPM datasets. If we look at that year alone instead,

2006 Grizzlies DRtg
With Battier, No Gasol: 92.5
With Battier, With Gasol: 101.0
No Battier, No Gasol: 104.9
No Battier, With Gasol: 106.3

That's still a +8.5 and +1.4 DRtg on/off from Gasol with and without Battier. When Battier was traded the next season, Gasol had a team worst +5.0 DRtg on/off on the worst defense in the entire league. Then in 2009 and 2010, the Lakers had the #1 defense both seasons without Gasol but fell by around 4 points with him on court. That's too many years of him having poor defensive on/offs to be excused by one season with Bo Outlaw as his backup.

With that being said, I do agree with your overall point regarding Gasol > Reed and that Gasol vs McHale shouldn't be this far apart. But then again, I was already pushing back against McHale going top 50 back then because of his lack of separation with Nance but that kind of fell on deaf ears...

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Thank you for the thoughtful reply. Going to respond to just a couple points.....

In reference to trex's underline question, I don't think it's necessarily an easy sell, but I think you can certainly make the argument, yes. The reason is, I think I disagree with Iggy's underlined point - I don't think Pau DID "get it done" as a #1. Assuming "as a #1" is referring to his Memphis years.

Setting aside the pre-trade portion of 07-08, Gasol was in Memphis for six full seasons. Here are the team's records and SRS for those six seasons:

01-02: 23-59, -6.74
02-03: 28-54, -2.60
03-04: 50-32, 2.95
04-05: 45-37, 2.63
05-06: 49-33, 3.74
06-07: 22-60, -4.44

So they're in the cellar the first two years, then they have three significantly better years where they make the playoffs and lose in the first round, and then they go back to the cellar for 06-07.

Okay.
Now let's do the same for Willis Reed (to see how he did as 1st option before Frazier came into his prime, as this was only vaguely alluded to [but not shown] in your post, which instead used only the years to paint Reed in the best possible light).....

'65: 31-49, -3.26 SRS
'66: 30-50, -2.31 SRS (was only 3rd-option on offense that year)
'67: 36-45, -2.74 SRS
'68: 43-39, +1.78 SRS (rookie Walt Frazier here)

Is ^^this looking like he did any better than Gasol in Memphis?
It's not like he didn't have some decent(ish) players in these years (Dick Barnett, Walt Bellamy, and Dick Van Arsdale from '66 onward, Red Holzman as coach beginning ~third of the way through '68 season).

So first off, just on the surface, they never got out of the first round with Pau as the #1.

Ditto Willis Reed prior to Frazier/Holzman; except Reed only got into the PS twice (one of those because EIGHT of 10 teams made the playoffs in '67).

But it's not just that. Those three years they made the playoffs? Those were the three years Shane Battier was on the team.

They were the years Barnett, Bellamy, DVA were on the team with Reed (plus rookie Frazier and Holzman in the second one).

I did concede the fact that the Knicks didn't look very good before Frazier and Holzman arrived, I just didn't go into the detail that you did.

I would say this though with regards to those pre 68-69 Knicks teams - there may be a question of how well utilized Reed was in those years when he was playing at PF next to Bellamy. Bill Simmons felt strongly enough about it to describe Reed as having "wasted two years playing forward to accommodate the likes of Walt Bellamy". And Simmons got the number wrong - it was three years, not two. Reed was at C in his rookie year before Bellamy was acquired and the Knicks weren't very good then, but perhaps the he and/or the team would've developed quicker without Bellamy. Would the Knicks have gotten better sooner if Reed had been at C the whole time? No way to know. Just a question to raise.

You look at the team's rel ORtgs and rel DRtgs, they were clearly winning on the defensive end(remember with these ratings, positive is good for offense, negative is good for defense):

2003-04: rel ORtg(+1.9), rel DRtg(-0.7)
2004-05: rel ORtg(-0.6), rel DRtg(-3.2)
2005-06: rel ORtg(-0.3), rel DRtg(-4.6)

and Battier was the anchor there. All three seasons they played together, Battier had a higher RS on/off:

2003-04 - Battier(+3.8), Gasol(-1.3)
2004-05 - Battier(+10.8), Gasol(+2.9)
2005-06 - Battier(+9.2), Gasol((+4.9)

Battier also had a higher RS+PO RAPM two out of three years.

I might note that the '14 and '22 Golden State Warriors were both notably better on defense than on offense. And in '14, Steph Curry's on/off was +15.2, while Klay's was +15.6 and Iggy's was +18.0. So was Iggy the true engine of that team's success?

Point taken, but isn't it a rule of them with impact metrics that the wider a period of time you're looking at, the less noise? It's a sample of three consecutive years in which Battier is topping Gasol in those metrics more often than not, in the regular season at least.

But anyway.....
Who was the notable offensive help Gasol had in Memphis? Mike Miller? James Posey in one weird outlier year in '04? Jason Williams (fun to watch, but not exactly a prize). These definitely are not barn-burner offensive names, and those really are the best ones I can mention.

Meanwhile, look at the notable defensive help Battier had (good defenders, guys who were getting playing time on any NBA franchise at all because of their defense [mostly, at least].....
'04: James Posey, Bo Outlaw, Stromile Swift, Bonzi Wells
'05: Bonzi Wells, Brian Cardinal, Stromile Swift, James Posey
'06: Eddie Jones (at 34 years old, he'd faded to average on offense)
(not sure if Lorenzen Wright or Jake Tsakalidis could be called a decent defenders, but they also were around)


So.......it's kinda no wonder they were better defensively, no?
Especially considering no one is arguing Gasol is an ideal or awesome 1st-option offensive player (nor is it necessary out here at #62). There AREN'T a ton of those guys left at this stage, and most have flash in the pan sized careers and/or are notably awful defensive players [e.g. Damian Lillard].

Gasol was a capable(ish) 1st-option, and was an AWESOME, near-ideal 2nd-option [on a contender] offensive player.......and he was that really consistently for a really long time (prime lasting a solid decade at least; 18-years of usefulness in the NBA [all in a very competitive era]). That's his case.

You're kind of making my point. Those Grizzlies teams were better defensively than offensively, and the numbers seem to show that Gasol wasn't much of a factor in said defense.

Now, with regards to Reed...it's true that the Knicks didn't get great until Frazier and Holzman arrived. But look at the team's records and SRS from 68-69 to 73-74:

1969: 54-28, 5.48
1970: 60-22, 8.42
1971: 52-30, 5.05
1972: 48-34, 2.28
1973: 57-25, 6.07
1974: 49-33, 2.42

Look especially at the SRS. Those two years where it's significantly lower than the other four seasons, 72 and 74? Those are the seasons where Reed barely played(11 games in 72 and 19 games in 74). Is that just a coincidence?

And he was probably the second-best player for most of those teams [at least in the playoffs], despite the MVP and such.

Let's look at Pau's teams where he had great help [and was the 2nd-best player]:

'08: 57-25, +7.34 SRS (trip to Finals)
'09: 65-17, +7.11 SRS (NBA title)
'10: 57-25, +4.78 SRS (NBA title)
'11: 57-25, +6.01 SRS (lost 2nd round to eventual champion)

......also noting they were 42-40 (+0.24 SRS) in '07 without him; then 28-15 (on pace for 53-54 wins) before he arrived in '08, 29-10 (on pace for 61 wins) after he arrived.


Anyway, just by way of counterpoint.

Yeah, it's hard to argue against the Lakers' team performance with Gasol in those years, even if his individual RAPM is in sort of good-but-not-great territory:

08: 3.82
09: 4.00
10: 3.21
11: 3.50

(Also...the Lakers couldn't have been 29-10 with Gasol in 07-08...he only played 27 games with the Lakers that year. They went 22-5. Which is on pace for 67 wins, so even better. But they were also on a soft patch of schedule if you look at the teams they were playing. Anyway, your point stands.)

I think my conclusion is the same - that they're both great ceiling raisers and that neither really have a measurable history of very effective floor-raising.

I think if you weigh longevity heavily, you have to go with Gasol. But if you value peak - particularly two-way peak - then I think you go with Reed.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Induction Vote #1: Willis Reed

Induction Vote #2: Pau Gasol

I'm still going with Reed because I can't shake the notion that he had the highest peak of these five, particularly if you care about two-way peak. And that 1970 title run carries some weight. He was going up against Unseld, Kareem, and Wilt, and in 16 games(I'm not counting the last two games of the Finals where he was hurt), he averaged 25.9ppg and 15.3rpg on 50.8% TS(which, while certainly lower than his RS 55.2%, is still just .3 below league average). Also, in 1969, even though the Knicks lost the series, he put up 24/13.5 on 56.4% TS against Russell. And he was playing at that level for four years.

I'm not super confident on this, but that's where my gut is.

Nomination Vote #1: Cliff Hagan

Hagan looks like the highest peak of the players currently up for nomination, and he had a hell of a playoff run when the Hawks won the 58 title.

[OhayoKD]

Vote

1. Pau Gasol
-> Strong #2 on two title teams
-> Solid #1 on a decent team
-> Versatile player who could pass, defend, and score well

2. Willis Reed
-
Nomination: Gobert

A more mobile more offensively gifted variant of Deke who has arguably been the most essential component on various playoff teams. Facing better talent with a spaced out floor has hurt him in a relative sense but if with stay-at-home defensive specialists as front-runners, the modern era's premium "stay at home" defensive specialist probably warrants some consideration.

Alternate Nomination: Walton

[Doctor MJ]

Induction Vote 1: Willis Reed
Induction Vote 2: Pau Gasol

People continue to make arguments against Reed that leave me re-considering...but none of the other candidates stand out the same way to me. I feel like Reed was the best player of the Nominees, and while you can knock his identity, you can't deny that he was a part of something really significant.

Of the other candidates, Gasol is the guy who next stands out the most for on this front, and I definitely see a case for him over Reed...but I don't think he was good prime v prime.



Nomination Vote 1: Cliff Hagan
Nomination Vote 2: Bobby Jones

Well I said I'd be careful about championing more super-oldtimers, but with Hagan getting support I can leave them hanging. The truth is that I do think Hagan stands out significantly compared to the other old timers left. The way he was dominant in the playoffs really impresses.

For the second vote, siding with Bobby among the major candidates. I do find the Parish arguments to be pretty compelling too, but Bobby really stands out to me.