Should we try to keep our 1st rd pick in 2024

[ConSarnit]

How I see it.

25% of keeping our pick
50% of giving a top10 pick
25% of making the play in

I’d probably have the play in odds lower, Normally I would agree but we will be fighting for the 10th spot against teams that won’t tank (BKN doesn’t have their pick, CHI and ATL are dumb like us and won’t tank). That means we’ll actually have to win games down the stretch and that’s not looking promising with this team. I’d say play-in is probably closer to 15%, though I can’t rule out us “defaulting” into the playoffs. Going 21-21 to finish the season could get us the 10th seed, so maybe you are correct at 25%.

I actually think CHI and ATL are catchable, depending on what they do before the deadline. BKN having some chemistry issues too apparently with Cam Thomas not being happy there (he's actually someone I might look to target in trade if BKN had interest in Siakam)

ATL is catchable. They could be smart enough to shut it down.

Chicago is really dumb and has made all of their recent moves in a desperate bid for the 8th seed. If history is any indicator they won't pack it in at any point.

Brooklyn owes their unprotected 1st to Houston. They have no reason to stop trying so they'll probably hang around until the very end (though whatever issues they are currently having might kill them off anyways)

[PushDaRock]

10th is still very much in play, maybe even 9th, and while I don't care so much about making the play-in, it means there's 5-6 teams worse than us in the conference, with 3 teams in the West almost guaranteed to be worse than us regardless. Maybe 4 if the Warriors implode.

So our pick could be somwhere between 7-11th pick, barring some lottery luck. It's basically guaranteed to convey unless we win a top 3 lottery spot. Might as well just try and win as many games and convey the pick this year. It's a steep price to pay, but it's already a sunk cost. Get it over with.

Furthermore, regardless of how deep this draft is or whatever, keeping the pick this year just continues to hamper our ability to trade picks in the future, killing our flexibility. For example, some teams might trade 2 picks for Siakam, but because of Stepien rule, they can't. If we had control of our pick, we could give them one of ours or offer a swap to facilitate the deal, or do something like that in a 3-way deal.

I get the suspicion we are absolutely screwed either way. We can’t catch the dregs of the league, especially now that MEM has lost Morant for the season. So that’s 6 teams worse than us.

What about the play-in? Well, the worst play-in team usually wins 40 games. We’d have to go 25–17 (.600 winning %) to get to 40 wins. Does anyone think this team can play at a .600 pace for any extended period of time?

It really is one of the bleakest seasons in memory. Can’t be bad enough to lock in a high pick and not good enough to even make the play-in. No playoff games to watch, no draft to look forward to. As close to a wasted season as you can get. Sort of hate this team right now.

It's basically a dumpster fire. How the Siakam situation gets handled will make or break this season and the foreseeable future.

[SpezNc]

Siakam is traded
We now have currently 3 picks (low 1st to early 2nd) in this draft
We are still most likely to finish between 6 to 9. Most likely #7 or #8
Depending on future move, it’s possible that next year we are in similar situation

After O.G trade 2/3 of posters wanted us to transferred the pick

Do you opinion has change now that Siakam is gone and the fact we are below .350% since O.G trade?

I have seen Will Lou asking if Spur would upgrade the protections or trade us back the pick for something else. I don’t think it’s realistic . Spur would have no incentive to do that. That pick just skyrocketed in value despite being a low draft.

Would you be OK to remove all protections in exchange of a pair of 2nd rounder or whatever compensation in draft pick you deem fit.

You would lose any chance to get a top6 pick this year but you will be certain to hold your 2025 pick instead. For SA, you guaranteed a high lottery pick this year.

Obviously you may look foolish if Spurs win the Lottery if our pick.

[Clutch0z24]

I am greedy....I want to keep both picks....I know it would be a rough 2 years of Raptors basketball ....But i really believe if Masai somehow got back to back top 6 Picks we draft at least 1 Barnes level of player in at least 1 of the drafts....Then i think we have a real chance at being a team like the Thunder are right now....Barnes coming into his own while a bunch of elite prospects around him grow with him...

OKC even with Shai before he became what he is now needed a team to run with...As soon as he started to become great he got Chet/Williams to join him and now its all gravy for them....

I would take 2 years of losing if it means having a decade of winning.

[SpezNc]

I am greedy....I want to keep both picks....I know it would be a rough 2 years of Raptors basketball ....But i really believe if Masai somehow got back to back top 6 Picks we draft at least 1 Barnes level of player in at least 1 of the drafts....Then i think we have a real chance at being a team like the Thunder are right now....Barnes coming into his own while a bunch of elite prospects around him grow with him...

OKC even with Shai before he became what he is now needed a team to run with...As soon as he started to become great he got Chet/Williams to join him and now its all gravy for them....

I would take 2 years of losing if it means having a decade of winning.

Same. I don’t believe in engineering 5 years of being bad. But so far both last year and this year we planned being good. We just didn’t win.

It’s okay to engineer at least one bad year (end of this season plus next year)

I know many are against that but reality is we need high draft pick

I don’t believe in a losing culture of losing for a decade and being in a constant rebuilding mode.

But I do believe in patience and draft capital accumulation. At least for one or two seasons.