Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Man, it’s getting bad. Worse than I thought.

Herro is the middle of bad stretch BUT -

It's not all on him. He's being over-used, due to lack of a legit guard playing with him.

Since Lowry is giving you NOTHING offensively, Herro is forced to try and make something happen - and sadly he's just not a high level creator. He need to be more of a play finisher, and less of a initiator.

That can only happen if we play him next to a guard that can really create an advantage and take usage off of Herro.

Lowry and Rich ain't it.

That’s also how Herro wants to play though, he said before the season he’s one of the best offensive players in the league and will one day possibly be the best. He’s said he’s on Traes level, Luka’s level etc. in the past. Dude thinks he’s far better than he is, he’s always been a ball stopper regardless of who’s been next to him, we just continue to excuse it

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Those of you that have been watching games, has Jovic made his case to continue starting or is it still precarious? Has he been effective?

He’s been a bright spot and people won’t want to hear this but you’re not winning a championship this season with Jovic as your starting 4. Would love to get an upgrade there and use Jovic in a bench role

[AirP.]

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Man, it’s getting bad. Worse than I thought.

Herro is the middle of bad stretch BUT -

It's not all on him. He's being over-used, due to lack of a legit guard playing with him.

Since Lowry is giving you NOTHING offensively, Herro is forced to try and make something happen - and sadly he's just not a high level creator. He need to be more of a play finisher, and less of a initiator.

That can only happen if we play him next to a guard that can really create an advantage and take usage off of Herro.

Lowry and Rich ain't it.

Agree with this. Limit Herro to more pin down/curls, catch and shoot and more off ball stuff. We’re way too reliant to give it to him late in the clock and hope he can create something. Even when he is getting to the paint, he’s not finishing well so far this year. Not sure if that’s residue from the ankle injury and him being wary of it, or he’s just off.

A legit PG that can create looks for him would do wonders.

Herro is selecting when he shoots which is usually early in the shot clock vs letting the offense run and try to generate good looks.
My guess is that to most his shots just look "cleaner" vs the offense Miami runs even though they're not overall efficient shots. Just looking for his stats in January he's taking around 45% of his shots with MORE than 15 seconds left on the shot clock, now if we go with 7 or more seconds on the shot, we're now at 86% of his shots with 7 or more seconds with around 14% of his shots with less then 7 seconds left.

Herro has one of the lower TS% on the team yet that seems ignored. It's one thing to be a dominate scorer stopping the ball or just taking the shots you want to stay in your offensive rhythm, but Herro isn't that. Right now, only Cain, Hampton and Martin have lower TS% than Herro and then couple that with over 17% of his shots are taken after he dribbles the ball 7 or more times, that's not going to lead to a lot of team success.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Those of you that have been watching games, has Jovic made his case to continue starting or is it still precarious? Has he been effective?

He’s been a bright spot and people won’t want to hear this but you’re not winning a championship this season with Jovic as your starting 4. Would love to get an upgrade there and use Jovic in a bench role

I'm kinda with you on this. We need a veteran swiss army in that 4 spot who won't make crucial mistakes in the playoffs. A PJ Tucker type that blends in with the starting unit.

[MettaWorldPanda]

And don't tell me it's Haywood Highsmith either. It's crazy how some people fall in love with the biggest jags on this team when they play a little defense.

[IceColdCubano]

Those of you that have been watching games, has Jovic made his case to continue starting or is it still precarious? Has he been effective?

He’s been a bright spot and people won’t want to hear this but you’re not winning a championship this season with Jovic as your starting 4. Would love to get an upgrade there and use Jovic in a bench role

Agreed you could see what could be, the flashes shown are there but spotty. We need a legit defender/rebounder at that spot and somebody thats going to hit the 3ball when screening for the rest of the team. Jovic is 1 year at best 2 years at worse from giving us the type of efficiency that we need as a championship contender. Running him during the season may be great for his future growth, but we need to perhaps move him to bench when we find something a bit more solid as a starter to close the season. You build habits in the season, that perhaps you don't want to be stuck having to put him in such pressured situation heading into the playoffs.

[greg4012]

It says the Mavs want Pj Washington (strange considering they have a similar player in Grant Williams) can the Heat pull of a trade in a 3 way to get Rozier and Kleber (elite defender) who can play both PF/C but is injury prone. Kleber and Bam give you 48mins of elite defense and Maxi can chip in with 3's as well and fits well with anyone at PF or C.

"elite" doing a lot of work here when it comes to Kleber. But, I like the idea.

[AirP.]

BTW, here's a reason Atlanta is moving Murray.
* Murray went rogue which is why Atlanta is trying to move him immediately. (from 3ammy3uck3ts's post below).

Either Murray is doing his whole thing or Trae and his attitude is who Atlanta has decided to build around and with that it seems he and Murray aren't a good match, if it's the 1st reason Miami shouldn't consider him, if it's the second that's fine and Atlanta deserve what they get with Trae. I'm thinking it's the 2nd reason though.

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

And don't tell me it's Haywood Highsmith either. It's crazy how some people fall in love with the biggest jags on this team when they play a little defense.

12-5 in games Haywood starts, majority of them without Herro. Thats a 58 win pace, im just saying!!

[IceColdCubano]

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A real good read on why our offense sucks so bad: see snippet of the article below.

Butler: 38% at the rim, 50% from mid-range, 12% from 3
Adebayo: 35% at the rim, 64% from mid-range, 2% from 3
Herro: 12% at the rim, 47% from mid-range, 41% from 3
Unless the Heat make major changes to their shot chart in the second half of the season, you can forget about another run to the Finals.

Even last season, when the Heat still weren’t a good rim-pressure team, they attempted a greater amount of their shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Their improbable playoff run was fueled by shooting 38% from 3, the highest clip for a Finals team since the Kevin Durant-and-Steph Curry Warriors. It’s unrealistic to expect to catch lightning in a bottle like that again.

Teams need to tilt their offense in one direction or the other – shots at the basket or from beyond the arc. The middle ground is no-man’s land.

Is it a matter of revamping the offense and prioritizing more efficient areas of the court? Hard to say, but none of this will come as news to Erik Spoelstra. There’s a reason he stresses getting up 40 3-pointers a game (even if the Heat rarely do).

This is a personnel problem. The Heat don’t have anyone who gets to the basket for more than five field-goal attempts per game. Adebayo has become reliant on the foul-line jumper and Butler, at 34, can’t be tasked with that kind of workload at this stage of his career.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

If we land a Murray or Rozier there needs to be a hierarchy change, some tough decisions need to be made. We need an addition at the 4 I believe, a Swiss army vet that can hit the 3 and defend as MWP said but I think it would be best to move Herro to the 6 man role again and start either Duncan or Caleb at the 2. With Murray I probably start Duncan, with Rozier I start Caleb. Everything will flow much better like that in my opinion but it’s also something that likely wouldn’t be considered unless we’re struggling after the trade

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[RexBoyWonder]

If we land a Murray or Rozier there needs to be a hierarchy change, some tough decisions need to be made. We need an addition at the 4 I believe, a Swiss army vet that can hit the 3 and defend as MWP said but I think it would be best to move Herro to the 6 man role again and start either Duncan or Caleb at the 2. With Murray I probably start Duncan, with Rozier I start Caleb. Everything will flow much better like that in my opinion but it’s also something that likely wouldn’t be considered unless we’re struggling after the trade

Rozier
Herro
Jimmy
Jovic
Bam

If Jovic gets into rhythm from 3, JJJ could replace Herro in the starting 5.

PS - Bouyea and Williams from Skyforce are looking good, and god damn they can drive to the rim better then anyone on this team besides Jimmy.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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A real good read on why our offense sucks so bad: see snippet of the article below.

Butler: 38% at the rim, 50% from mid-range, 12% from 3
Adebayo: 35% at the rim, 64% from mid-range, 2% from 3
Herro: 12% at the rim, 47% from mid-range, 41% from 3
Unless the Heat make major changes to their shot chart in the second half of the season, you can forget about another run to the Finals.

Even last season, when the Heat still weren’t a good rim-pressure team, they attempted a greater amount of their shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Their improbable playoff run was fueled by shooting 38% from 3, the highest clip for a Finals team since the Kevin Durant-and-Steph Curry Warriors. It’s unrealistic to expect to catch lightning in a bottle like that again.

Teams need to tilt their offense in one direction or the other – shots at the basket or from beyond the arc. The middle ground is no-man’s land.

Is it a matter of revamping the offense and prioritizing more efficient areas of the court? Hard to say, but none of this will come as news to Erik Spoelstra. There’s a reason he stresses getting up 40 3-pointers a game (even if the Heat rarely do).

This is a personnel problem. The Heat don’t have anyone who gets to the basket for more than five field-goal attempts per game. Adebayo has become reliant on the foul-line jumper and Butler, at 34, can’t be tasked with that kind of workload at this stage of his career.

We’ve been preaching it for years. We need someone who can provide rim pressure from the guard position. It will open up so much

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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A real good read on why our offense sucks so bad: see snippet of the article below.

Butler: 38% at the rim, 50% from mid-range, 12% from 3
Adebayo: 35% at the rim, 64% from mid-range, 2% from 3
Herro: 12% at the rim, 47% from mid-range, 41% from 3
Unless the Heat make major changes to their shot chart in the second half of the season, you can forget about another run to the Finals.

Even last season, when the Heat still weren’t a good rim-pressure team, they attempted a greater amount of their shots from 3-point range in the regular season. Their improbable playoff run was fueled by shooting 38% from 3, the highest clip for a Finals team since the Kevin Durant-and-Steph Curry Warriors. It’s unrealistic to expect to catch lightning in a bottle like that again.

Teams need to tilt their offense in one direction or the other – shots at the basket or from beyond the arc. The middle ground is no-man’s land.

Is it a matter of revamping the offense and prioritizing more efficient areas of the court? Hard to say, but none of this will come as news to Erik Spoelstra. There’s a reason he stresses getting up 40 3-pointers a game (even if the Heat rarely do).

This is a personnel problem. The Heat don’t have anyone who gets to the basket for more than five field-goal attempts per game. Adebayo has become reliant on the foul-line jumper and Butler, at 34, can’t be tasked with that kind of workload at this stage of his career.

I’ll take it a step further:

Offensive rating with Herro this year: 111.3, would be 6th worst in the league

Offensive rating without Herro this year: 119.9, 4th best in the league

That’s pretty glaring for a guy who’s missed just under half of our games this season

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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UD has spoken! Makes me think everyone else is aware as well, players included

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

BTW, here's a reason Atlanta is moving Murray.

Either Murray is doing his whole thing or Trae and his attitude is who Atlanta has decided to build around and with that it seems he and Murray aren't a good match, if it's the 1st reason Miami shouldn't consider him, if it's the second that's fine and Atlanta deserve what they get with Trae. I'm thinking it's the 2nd reason though.

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[ZoStrong]

Part of the reason Sexton is high on my wish list is because he fits the 2 timelines.

He's 24, so young enough to play next Jovic/JJJ/Bam long term but he's expirenced enough to help maximize Jimmy's window as well.

He's an aggressive efficient scorer that plays hard. That's good enough. His below average passing isn't a big deal next to our great passers.

Aggressive? Efficient? Scorer? Below average at passing? His name makes so much sense

[IceColdCubano]

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Dejounte Murray and Herro cannot co-exist together on this team, seen him and Trey not work out in Atlanta I would feel like Miami would either use Herro to go for Murray and something else, or use Herro to go get a PF of note and strength the front court and get Murray with Lowry. A package of Herro, Jovic + 2 FRP's should get us some premier talent where ever available. Id throw that at Cleveland and see if they would be willing to let go of Donovan Mitchell.