The Washington Commanders Thread

[DCZards]

Johnson seems like the one. Quinn is plan B. And I hate to say it but I’m guessing Morris is a Rooney rule interview.

I like all three though.

Raheem Morris is a highly regarded defensive coordinator and leader. He doesn’t need the Rooney rule to deserve or earn an interview.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Johnson seems like the one. Quinn is plan B. And I hate to say it but I’m guessing Morris is a Rooney rule interview.

I like all three though.

Raheem Morris is a highly regarded defensive coordinator and leader. He doesn’t need the Rooney rule to deserve or earn an interview.

I totally agree. It’s just that reports have been leaking since before Rivera was fired that the Commodes were in big on Johnson.

[pancakes3]

Caleb Williams, yuck. He's Bryce Young.

I don’t see it. Incredible arm talent, sublime pocket presence.

‘cakes, how do you rank the QBs in the draft from say 1-5?

I think it's very different things to:
- rank the qb's relative to each other
- rank the qb's relative to qb's in the league right now (as is, or to them as rookies)
- rank the qb's based on how they're projected to turn out

Right now? Yeah, Caleb is the best prospect based on the mix of talent, age, and upside. I think the mocks get it mostly right with the top 5 being Caleb, Maye, Bo Nix, Penix, and JJ McCarthy. I don't think Jayden Daniels is very exciting. If I had to draft a qb, I'd take Maye or McCarthy based on age.

Relative to other qb's in years past? None of them look to me to be as good as the really good qb prospects of the past 5 years like Trevor Lawrence. I think all these guys are just a stack of Mac Jones's and Zach Wilsons.

I agree that Caleb has incredible arm talent, but I don't know about his pocket presence - he seems to roll out instead of resetting the pocket more than he should but doesn't really have the legs to do it like Lamar or the size to do it like Josh Allen. His size is especially concerning because if you're 6'1, you need to be in the pocket for longevity purposes, but also if you're short, you need to be able to throw over 6'5 linemen, so it's a catch-22. The college game plays with wider splits because the defense isn't as skilled, which allows you to have wider passing lanes but playing with a tighter pocket is going to narrow Caleb's viewing window, making him less effective, and more liable to roll out, which shrinks the playbook/play options, which makes him less effective in the League than in college. Also as far as intangibles go, he doesn't seem to be a very tough mentally and doesn't shrug off bad throws (short term) or losing streaks (longer term) very well.

And also looking forward, I think next year, Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck, and Cameron Ward are going to show out and prove to be very good draft prospects in their own right - better on average than this (overhyped) class. Shedeur Sanders is also an interesting prospect - his numbers ain't bad.

[WashWiz54]

The more I think about it, the more I am thinking Bobby Slowik is going to end up being the hire.

- I strongly believe we are drafting a QB. He just did a great job with CJ Stroud.
- He worked with Adam Peters in SF under a very successful regime
- Even though different ownership, he has history here
- He is a young, exciting, and an offensive minded hire

I honestly would be perfectly fine with it so long we bring in an experienced HC as an advisor/coordinator to help with the growing pains that will inevitably come.

Peters-Slowik-Williams/Maye. That is a combination that could really energize and rejuvenate a fan base that sure needs a shot in the arm.

[TGW]

If Caleb Williams doesn't pan out, that's a massive miss by most experts in the NFL.

Read on Twitter

[gambitx777]

If Caleb Williams doesn't pan out, that's a massive miss by most experts in the NFL.

Read on Twitter

Bro they said that **** about try lance? Where is he. They said that **** about RGIII. What happened to him? Remember how good they said Haskins was gonna be. Remember how every one loved Tim Tebow? How did mark Sanchez work out? There are busts every single year by guys who were the next Lamar the next Brady the next Big Ben. Williams has the hype train but he just doesn't pass the gut check for me.

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[TGW]

If Caleb Williams doesn't pan out, that's a massive miss by most experts in the NFL.

Read on Twitter

Bro they said that **** about try lance? Where is he. They said that **** about RGIII. What happened to him? Remember how good they said Haskins was gonna be. Remember how every one loved Tim Tebow? How did mark Sanchez work out? There are busts every single year by guys who were the next Lamar the next Brady the next Big Ben. Williams has the hype train but he just doesn't pass the gut check for me.

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This is false. They did not come close to saying these things about anyone you just mentioned.

Mark Sanchez? C'mon dude you're reaching. Even the NFL.com Draft commentary didn't belive that, and they try and make all the players look good:

Sanchez surprised many, including coach Pete Carroll, with his decision to leave after serving as the starting quarterback of the Trojans for just one season. It's hard to find fault with his production. He was first-team All-Pac-10 in completing 65.8 percnt of his passes for 3,207 yards, 34 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions and led USC to a surprisingly easy victory over Penn State in the Rose Bowl. His effort against Penn State (28 of 35 passing for 413 passing yards, four TDs) and a weak senior class of quarterbacks created the momentum to catapult Sanchez into first-round conversation. Teams considering Sanchez that early do so at their own risk. He has less than the equivalent of a full NFL season as a starter. Regardless of how impressive he was at times for USC, this small sample size might not be enough to convince NFL teams he's worth millions as a pillar of their franchise. Had an arm span of 33 1/2 inches and a hand span of 10 1/2 inches at the combine.

Same with Lance. Tepid at best scouting report:

One-year starter who dazzled in 2019. Lance is mature for his age, but will be just 20 years old at the time of the 2021 NFL Draft. He's a rare dual-threat quarterback in that he's tasked with setting his own protections and reading the full field. Coaches rave about his football IQ and film work. They believe he will come into the league more football savvy than most of the quarterbacks in this draft. Tape shows very average arm strength but velocity should improve with better lower-body drive. While his recognition of coverage danger is a plus, he's currently more of a "yellow light" quarterback who needs to find a "green light" risk-taking mentality to become a playmaking talent in the NFL. An offensive coordinator willing to blend his run/pass talent with a play-action attack could get the most out of Lance, who should become a good NFL starter.

RG3 got hurt. Before he was injured, he was a phenom. So you're wrong 100%. None of those players were considered generational talents. Bringing up Tebow is laughable. There's a difference between a guy getting first round consideration because of potential like a Lance or RG3, and a player that is given a "generational talent" label.

[pancakes3]

[boomer football] CJ stroud is lucky he's got laremy tunsil at LT [/boomer]

[gambitx777]

If Caleb Williams doesn't pan out, that's a massive miss by most experts in the NFL.

Read on Twitter

Bro they said that **** about try lance? Where is he. They said that **** about RGIII. What happened to him? Remember how good they said Haskins was gonna be. Remember how every one loved Tim Tebow? How did mark Sanchez work out? There are busts every single year by guys who were the next Lamar the next Brady the next Big Ben. Williams has the hype train but he just doesn't pass the gut check for me.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

This is false. They did not come close to saying these things about anyone you just mentioned.

Mark Sanchez? C'mon dude you're reaching. Even the NFL.com Draft commentary didn't belive that, and they try and make all the players look good:

Sanchez surprised many, including coach Pete Carroll, with his decision to leave after serving as the starting quarterback of the Trojans for just one season. It's hard to find fault with his production. He was first-team All-Pac-10 in completing 65.8 percnt of his passes for 3,207 yards, 34 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions and led USC to a surprisingly easy victory over Penn State in the Rose Bowl. His effort against Penn State (28 of 35 passing for 413 passing yards, four TDs) and a weak senior class of quarterbacks created the momentum to catapult Sanchez into first-round conversation. Teams considering Sanchez that early do so at their own risk. He has less than the equivalent of a full NFL season as a starter. Regardless of how impressive he was at times for USC, this small sample size might not be enough to convince NFL teams he's worth millions as a pillar of their franchise. Had an arm span of 33 1/2 inches and a hand span of 10 1/2 inches at the combine.

Same with Lance. Tepid at best scouting report:

One-year starter who dazzled in 2019. Lance is mature for his age, but will be just 20 years old at the time of the 2021 NFL Draft. He's a rare dual-threat quarterback in that he's tasked with setting his own protections and reading the full field. Coaches rave about his football IQ and film work. They believe he will come into the league more football savvy than most of the quarterbacks in this draft. Tape shows very average arm strength but velocity should improve with better lower-body drive. While his recognition of coverage danger is a plus, he's currently more of a "yellow light" quarterback who needs to find a "green light" risk-taking mentality to become a playmaking talent in the NFL. An offensive coordinator willing to blend his run/pass talent with a play-action attack could get the most out of Lance, who should become a good NFL starter.

RG3 got hurt. Before he was injured, he was a phenom. So you're wrong 100%. None of those players were considered generational talents. Bringing up Tebow is laughable. There's a difference between a guy getting first round consideration because of potential like a Lance or RG3, and a player that is given a "generational talent" label.

I remember when everyone thought Ryan leaf was the next goat. I remember what they said about all those guys I listed you can pull out some of the detractor talks but I remember. The fact he got hurt doesn't change the RGIII busted when everyone knew he had injury concerns before hand.

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[pancakes3]

First round picks:
Bryce Young 1 overall
CJ Stround 2 overall
Anthony Richardson 4 overall
Kenny Pickett 20 overall
Trevor Lawrence 1 overall
Zach Wilson 2 overall
Trey Lance 3 overall
Justin Fields 11 overall
Mac Jones 15 overall
Joe Burrow 1 overall
Tua 5 overall
Herbert 6 overall
Jordan Love 26 overall
Kyler Murray 1 overall
Daniel Jones 6 overall
Haskins 15 overall
Baker 1 overall
Darnold 3 overall
Josh Allen 7 overal
Josh Rosen 10 overall
Lamar Jackson 32 overall
Trubisky 2 overall
Mahomes 10 overall
Deshaun Watson 12 overall

Looking at guys that went top 5, Caleb being measured against: Bryce, CJ, Richardson, TLaw, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Kyler, Daniel Jones, Baker, Darnold, Trubisky.

And out of these guys who were hyped up, It's Bryce, TLaw, Burrow, and Baker that were viewed as can't-miss prospects.

The other guys were looked as needing tweaks to get to where they need to get to - if they could put it together, if they could maximize their physical tools, if they weren't just a product of their respective college systems.

I think Caleb is closer to that second group than he is to that first. There are lots of legitimate talking heads that talk about how long he holds the ball, his height, etc. as possible weaknesses. I don't think he's a consensus can't-miss guy. And even the can't-miss guys sometimes miss.

[Benjammin]

Fwiw, I don't recall most experts rooting
touting Baker as this can't miss type prospect. At all. Questions about his size and attitude.

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[Wizardspride]

I was looking at the Super Bowl winning and losing QBs of the last 40 years or so and my takeaway is simply this:

Other than a few outliers (Tom Brady, Joe Montana etc) Super Bowl participating QBs are overwhelmingly first rounders and in many cases drafted in the top 10....top 6 actually.

This whole "trade down for picks and draft a QB later" idea sounds nice but if you actually have Super Bowl aspirations, trading down isn't where you normally find your QB.

[gambitx777]

First round picks:
Bryce Young 1 overall
CJ Stround 2 overall
Anthony Richardson 4 overall
Kenny Pickett 20 overall
Trevor Lawrence 1 overall
Zach Wilson 2 overall
Trey Lance 3 overall
Justin Fields 11 overall
Mac Jones 15 overall
Joe Burrow 1 overall
Tua 5 overall
Herbert 6 overall
Jordan Love 26 overall
Kyler Murray 1 overall
Daniel Jones 6 overall
Haskins 15 overall
Baker 1 overall
Darnold 3 overall
Josh Allen 7 overal
Josh Rosen 10 overall
Lamar Jackson 32 overall
Trubisky 2 overall
Mahomes 10 overall
Deshaun Watson 12 overall

Looking at guys that went top 5, Caleb being measured against: Bryce, CJ, Richardson, TLaw, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Kyler, Daniel Jones, Baker, Darnold, Trubisky.

And out of these guys who were hyped up, It's Bryce, TLaw, Burrow, and Baker that were viewed as can't-miss prospects.

The other guys were looked as needing tweaks to get to where they need to get to - if they could put it together, if they could maximize their physical tools, if they weren't just a product of their respective college systems.

I think Caleb is closer to that second group than he is to that first. There are lots of legitimate talking heads that talk about how long he holds the ball, his height, etc. as possible weaknesses. I don't think he's a consensus can't-miss guy. And even the can't-miss guys sometimes miss.

He holds the ball for ages. He doesn't have good size or a good frame and that tricky off plan **** often gets wrecked when faced with more experienced and athletic defenders. He's being compared to those generational guys but he ain't them. He also has a ton of questions about his heart and character. I'm passing hard with a smile on my face and hoping the bears do something dumb and trade Justin Fields.

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[gambitx777]

I was looking at the Super Bowl winning and losing QBs of the last 40 years or so and my takeaway is simply this:

Other than a few outliers (Tom Brady, Joe Montana etc) Super Bowl participating QBs are overwhelmingly first rounders and in many cases drafted in the top 10....top 6 actually.

This whole "trade down for picks and draft a QB later" idea sounds nice but if you actually have Super Bowl aspirations, trading down isn't where you normally find your QB.

Let's break this open shall we.

You changed it up and said top six then you're excluding Patrick mahomes who was picked at 10. which when a lot of us are talking about trading back that's what we mean trading back to 3-6-8-ect so using this as an argument for not trading back I null and void.
But let's stick with your top 6 theme here

Let's go back to 1980.
13 or 30% of the super bowl winners were top 6 picks, if you got to top ten that ups the number to about 16 or 38%. Many of these being repeating guys. So really it's like 8-9 dudes.
Plunket, sims, Aiken, young , elway, manning, manning, mahomes, Stafford.
That's top ten if you wanna go top 6 remove sims and mohones.

Let's increase this to first rounders in general.
That adds 4 names to the list taking it to 20 total and 12 individuals
Flaco, Big Ben, Doug Williams and Jim McMahon.
That's 48 percent.

Infact of the 3 Washington wins since 1980. The 3 QBs, none were top6, none were top ten and only 1 was a first rounder at 17 and the other two were a 4th and 6th.
Doug Williams, Mark Raypien and Joe Theisman.

I also did the losers
Since 1980
14 times the looser was a top ten pick. With 12 dudes, John elway lost a bunch.
Let's kick that to first round.
That kicks to about 19. Jim Kelly lost more than John elway did lol.

So the numbers don't support what you said at all. It's about half no matter which way you cut it.

So what's best for the team. This team neeeeeeeeds a lot and winning QB aren't only found in the first couple picks.

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[Wizardspride]

I was looking at the Super Bowl winning and losing QBs of the last 40 years or so and my takeaway is simply this:

Other than a few outliers (Tom Brady, Joe Montana etc) Super Bowl participating QBs are overwhelmingly first rounders and in many cases drafted in the top 10....top 6 actually.

This whole "trade down for picks and draft a QB later" idea sounds nice but if you actually have Super Bowl aspirations, trading down isn't where you normally find your QB.

Let's break this open shall we.

You changed it up and said top six then you're excluding Patrick mahomes who was picked at 10. which when a lot of us are talking about trading back that's what we mean trading back to 3-6-8-ect so using this as an argument for not trading back I null and void.
But let's stick with your top 6 theme here

Let's go back to 1980.
13 or 30% of the super bowl winners were top 6 picks, if you got to top ten that ups the number to about 16 or 38%. Many of these being repeating guys. So really it's like 8-9 dudes.
Plunket, sims, Aiken, young , elway, manning, manning, mahomes, Stafford.
That's top ten if you wanna go top 6 remove sims and mohones.

Let's increase this to first rounders in general.
That adds 4 names to the list taking it to 20 total and 12 individuals
Flaco, Big Ben, Doug Williams and Jim McMahon.
That's 48 percent.

Infact of the 3 Washington wins since 1980. The 3 QBs, none were top6, none were top ten and only 1 was a first rounder at 17 and the other two were a 4th and 6th.
Doug Williams, Mark Raypien and Joe Theisman.

I also did the losers
Since 1980
14 times the looser was a top ten pick. With 12 dudes, John elway lost a bunch.
Let's kick that to first round.
That kicks to about 19. Jim Kelly lost more than John elway did lol.

So the numbers don't support what you said at all. It's about half no matter which way you cut it.

So what's best for the team. This team neeeeeeeeds a lot and winning QB aren't only found in the first couple picks.

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The numbers actually do support my premise.

You're just focusing on my top 6-10 comment and not the overall point of Super Bowl participating QBs being first round picks for the most part.

But with that being, you clarified you were talking about trading down a few spots.....so I rest.


Fwiw, I do understand what you're saying about trading down.

I think the disconnect between us lies in how much we value the QBs at the top of this draft.

You're not particularly impressed with them,

Personally, I think Williams, Maye, Daniels are going to be elite QBs eventually.

They aren't perfect prospects but I think there's a big drop off after the top 3 QBs in this draft.

[pancakes3]

anecdata + analysis coming out my butt, but Caleb just told People magazine that he would like to play for the Dolphins, Niners, Raiders, and Falcons. No mention of the Bears, and no mention of his hometown team. Comes off as naive and/or entitled. And straight up disrespectful to Tua, Purdy, Aiden, and Ridder (well, maybe not Ridder, dude stinks)

https://www.si.com/nfl/falcons/news/usc-qb-caleb-williams-draft-atlanta-falcons-cool-trade-chicago-bears-justin-fields

[Wizardspride]

anecdata + analysis coming out my butt, but Caleb just told People magazine that he would like to play for the Dolphins, Niners, Raiders, and Falcons. No mention of the Bears, and no mention of his hometown team. Comes off as naive and/or entitled. And straight up disrespectful to Tua, Purdy, Aiden, and Ridder (well, maybe not Ridder, dude stinks)

https://www.si.com/nfl/falcons/news/usc-qb-caleb-williams-draft-atlanta-falcons-cool-trade-chicago-bears-justin-fields

To be fair, those comments were from a year ago.

Honestly, it seems to me as if he just rattled off some random teams.

[Benjammin]

^^^Are we really doing this? That interview with People Magazine, that bastion of sports knowledge, was literally a year ago.

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

?t=WFBDPiQY6HeD7SKEnUTylw&s=19

[gambitx777]

I was looking at the Super Bowl winning and losing QBs of the last 40 years or so and my takeaway is simply this:

Other than a few outliers (Tom Brady, Joe Montana etc) Super Bowl participating QBs are overwhelmingly first rounders and in many cases drafted in the top 10....top 6 actually.

This whole "trade down for picks and draft a QB later" idea sounds nice but if you actually have Super Bowl aspirations, trading down isn't where you normally find your QB.

Let's break this open shall we.

You changed it up and said top six then you're excluding Patrick mahomes who was picked at 10. which when a lot of us are talking about trading back that's what we mean trading back to 3-6-8-ect so using this as an argument for not trading back I null and void.
But let's stick with your top 6 theme here

Let's go back to 1980.
13 or 30% of the super bowl winners were top 6 picks, if you got to top ten that ups the number to about 16 or 38%. Many of these being repeating guys. So really it's like 8-9 dudes.
Plunket, sims, Aiken, young , elway, manning, manning, mahomes, Stafford.
That's top ten if you wanna go top 6 remove sims and mohones.

Let's increase this to first rounders in general.
That adds 4 names to the list taking it to 20 total and 12 individuals
Flaco, Big Ben, Doug Williams and Jim McMahon.
That's 48 percent.

Infact of the 3 Washington wins since 1980. The 3 QBs, none were top6, none were top ten and only 1 was a first rounder at 17 and the other two were a 4th and 6th.
Doug Williams, Mark Raypien and Joe Theisman.

I also did the losers
Since 1980
14 times the looser was a top ten pick. With 12 dudes, John elway lost a bunch.
Let's kick that to first round.
That kicks to about 19. Jim Kelly lost more than John elway did lol.

So the numbers don't support what you said at all. It's about half no matter which way you cut it.

So what's best for the team. This team neeeeeeeeds a lot and winning QB aren't only found in the first couple picks.

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The numbers actually do support my premise.

You're just focusing on my top 6-10 comment and not the overall point of Super Bowl participating QBs being first round picks for the most part.

But with that being, you clarified you were talking about trading down a few spots.....so I rest.


Fwiw, I do understand what you're saying about trading down.

I think the disconnect between us lies in how much we value the QBs at the top of this draft.

You're not particularly impressed with them,

Personally, I think Williams, Maye, Daniels are going to be elite QBs eventually.

They aren't perfect prospects but I think there's a big drop off after the top 3 QBs in this draft.

Well I actually like Daniels. I just don't like him in the top 3. I think he's worth about 10th-20th. I like JJ but a first round picks for him is steep. I love Joe Milton in the 7th every stat he has was better than will Levi's and he was talked about as a top ten pick before slipping to the second. So that's huge value.

I look at drafting more as value for what you get than just what you get.

Like I don't like Kaleb Williams but there is a point where even I would have to draft him for value. Maye is meh he's ok but I'd prefer the value pick of trying to get Daniels at say 8 9 or 10. And getting the draft capital from that trade back than just taking Maye at 2.

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