basketballwacko2 wrote:
Not a flaw way to look at it at all. I'm not a professional basketball scout but I had Green as a #1 pick. He was a great player a few years ago but now he's a jerk who I would have traded 2-3 yrs ago and not resigned to his new contract. I had Brunson rated much higher than Holiday who I had as a 2nd round talent. Same for TJ Leaf who I said at the time was a late 2nd at best, I wanted Collins or OG, I saw no need for Goga and have no doubt I would have picked a better player. I'll admit that I never heard of Gobert before draft day, but then again I'm not a professional Scout.
For a guy who does this stuff for Sh*t's and giggle's I've been right more than I've been wrong. I practically predicted the PG trade to OKC if there was a search function I could find the post I made back then when I suggested Victor and Sabonis plus a #1 for PG. I called the Turner R/E perfectly right before it happened when 9 out of 10 posters were saying trade him to LA with Buddy for Westy and a distant pick. And I'm just a retired KIck boxer who might have been punched in the head one time too many. That and my IU degree in Economics, and 2 yrs of law school but who's counting.
I don't doubt your knowledge at all. And i'm sure you've hit on some players and missed on others. Just like other people who have a slight interest in the draft process. But it's much easier to write it in a forum setting with nothing to lose then it is with the cameras on you and every pick going under a microscope.
The way you should look at it is based on probability. Once you get out of picks like 16, the historical data shows players have like a 5% chance of being a star, 15% chance of being decent. The Pacers DID do a poor job drafting, im not here to tell you they did a great job, but the odds were not in their favor and they didnt beat the odds on any of the picks. If thats player or lack of player development or a combination of both.
You can be mad all you want and slam your fist on your desk, but its not the right way of looking at it. Like i said, if it was as easy as you said, drafts would have much higher success rate with late selections like Draymond or Brunson going much earlier.
Link-
https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm