2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Doctor MJ]

So far this year, would you rather have SGA, Haliburton, or Doncic for their performance to date?

SGA by a large margin.

[Doctor MJ]

So far this year, would you rather have SGA, Haliburton, or Doncic for their performance to date?

I have SGA competing with Jokic for having the best season to date (Embiid is right with them if we disregard the missed games), so it's him. I have Haliburton ahead of Luka but I'm open to hearing arguments on that one. Projecting into the playoffs, it would be a debate between SGA and Luka with a strong argument for Luka but that's obviously an entirely different question.

Yeah, to me the MVP is between SGA & Jokic. Embiid may have a chance if he doesn't miss more time and the other guys become injury prone.

Though Hali's offense is quite interesting and I'll be watching more in the future.

[Doctor MJ]

The 76ers have played almost 1000 minutes without Embiid and have a 118.7 ORtg in that time period, why don't you go look at what's happening in that significant amount of time?

I was curious so I did :

Embiid has been off the court for 920 minutes, 480 of them being the 10 games that he missed. Maxey played in 9 of them, culminating 351 out of the 443 extra minutes that he played over Embiid. In this stretch, they are 3-7 with an average ORtg of 114 and Maxey's ORtg in those games is 105.

Meaning that in the 440 remaining minutes without Embiid (31 games in which he played), the 76ers have an ORtg of around 122/123, with Maxey playing in less than a hundred of those minutes.

I might be missing something as I haven't dug deeper in those 31 games in which he played, but that doesn't seem enough to back up the claim that Maxey is the 76ers true offensive Mvp (Maxey's scoring efficiency is also much worse without Embiid on the floor).

To note: Embiid sat eleven 4th quarters already (132 minutes) because the 76ers were blowing their opponent out. Now, I don't know what their offensive rating is during those 4th quarters, but I suspect that it is quite high and not very meaningful minutes anyway.

Also, with Embiid drawing fouls at an absurd rate and putting the opposing centers in foul trouble, it seems to make sense to me that the team's offensive rating is much higher without him on the floor in the games he played vs the games that he missed completely (+ those minutes are against bench line-ups vs whole game).

Some great digging Orin!

The point that makes me furrow my brow the most is the aspect pertaining to Embiid sitting out the 4th in blowouts - which is certainly true, but it's an odd wrinkle pertaining to Maxey's +/- data being ignored in the 4th quarter on the grounds that the game is already over. It's hardly normal for guys teams to continue further blowing out opponents in the 4th quarter after they are resting their star.

If we break down Maxey's +/- numbers quarter-by-quarter this year, here's what we get:

1st: +28
2nd: +116
3rd: +105
4th: +111

And, just because it seems obviously informative for comparison, here are Embiid's numbers:

1st: +76
2nd: +81
3rd: +119
4th: -9

Looking at Embiid, it absolutely aligns with the idea that he's not playing 4th quarters because of blowouts.

But looking at Maxey, the weird thing is the 1st quarter, not the 4th. I think both are worth further study, but I'll acknowledge a reluctance to literally dismiss Maxey's continued +/- stat in the 4th because he's NOT playing with Embiid in those minutes.

In terms of the 1st quarter, part of what's going on here is star staggering.

If we look at a sample game flow 1/20 Phi@Cha, we see:
Embiid plays all of the 1st & 3rd quarters, and then skips the first 6 minutes of the 2nd & 4th.
Maxey by contrast takes a 3 minute breather in the 1st & 3rd quarter, and and then plays pretty much the entire 2nd & 4th quarters.

Season-wide,
Embiid plays way more 1st & 3rd quarter minutes than 2nd (or 4th).
Maxey plays more 2nd quarter minutes than any other quarter (followed by 3rd, 1st & 4th).

So I'd say what we're seeing is a situation where Embiid is sitting most of his 4th quarter minutes not because it's a blowout, but because he's being rested just like is done in the 2nd quarter. From there, the decision is made whether they need to bring him back in for the last 6 or so minutes or not. And since the team is doing so well in 4th quarters without Embiid, that makes it all the easier to not bring Embiid back in.

Regarding your points about how they've done in games with literally no Embiid, and the idea that Embiid's foul drawing might make things way easier for Maxey even while Embiid rests, these simply good points to bring to the fore - especially the second because I'd love to see more analysis done on this more generally (I'd like to see stats on this league-wide, though I'm not sure the best way to try to quantify it).

I will point out something in the other direction though that I call OnWins (along with OnWin%). As in, the number of games where the team had a positive +/- with you out there (generally with a 24 MPG threshold). Obviously there's a lot of noise in this, but I think it's worth being aware of generally, and I also think it's something that where a player like Embiid should really show up if Maxey's really only able to do his think in games where Embiid weakens the opponent.

I'm going to list out major players - guys I consider to be clear cut all-stars and above - who are atop the OnWin leaderboard for the year right now, along with their OnWin% (percentage of games they played enough minutes where they had positive +/-).

Jokic 34 out of 41 (82.9%)
SGA 30 out of 39 (76.9%)
Maxey 29 out of 40 (72.5%)
Gobert 28 out of 41 (68.3%)
George 28 out of 37 (75.7%)
Tatum 27 out of 39 (69.2%)
Edwards 27 out of 38 (71.1%)
Kawhi 26 out of 37 (70.3%)
Giannis 26 out of 39 (66.7%)
Embiid 22 out of 31 (71.0%)
Fox 22 out of 35 (62.9%)
Haliburton 22 out of 33 (66.7%)
LeBron 21 out of 38 (55.3%)

And just to show the OnWin% order neatly before discussing further

Jokic 82.9%
SGA 76.9%
George 75.7%
Maxey 72.5%
Edwards 71.1%
Embiid 71.0%
Tatum 69.2%
Gobert 68.3%
Giannis 66.7%
Haliburton 66.7%
Fox 62.9%
LeBron 55.3%

Well so, no, we really don't see Embiid being way more of an outlier than Maxey, so the mystery remains. Perhaps more granular analysis would show something that could back up a thesis that Maxey is more "+/- impactful" than Embiid in games they don't play, but this is due to a weird asynchronous impact of Embiid's foul drawing, but I can't point to anything yet.

[Heej]

Hot take: Embiid has the highest growth rate in NBA history in regards to skill/IQ development. There's no reason for someone as raw as him to have picked up bball at 15 and become this good at his size. His brain literally is built different as far as whatever it is that helps him refine and retain fine motor skills

[The-Power]

Has anyone ever been as efficient as Embiid on from 10ft out to the 3pt line? He shoots 51% from 10-16ft and 53% from 16ft-3P, and together that accounts for 42% of all his FGA, i.e., the volume is obscene for today's era as well. And those numbers do not yet take into account the Spurs game! I'm sure those numbers have been rivaled in the past (e.g., by Dirk a couple times) but we still have to account for how frequently Embiid is fouled on shots from this area (which also helps him shoot less tightly contested shots in general because defenders are afraid of being called for a foul) and his elite FT%. Once we factor that in, Embiid has to be the most efficient midrange player ever, no?

I'll have to be honest in one point, though. I made a conscious effort to enjoy greatness more. During the GSW era, it was at times hard for me to do that because great players were rivals and threats, so I often could not just lean back and enjoy. Now that the GSW era is over and my general perspective has changed a bit also, I try to watch great players do great things with more joy and make an effort to catch their games. But I just can't with the 76ers and Embiid. The foul-baiting and the cheap fouls that are constantly called in his favor simply turn me off. And that's a pity because Embiid is such a marvelous player who I would like to be able to enjoy watching.

But that's my perspective and it obviously doesn't matter. 76ers fans will rightfully count their lucky stars to have Embiid on the team, and Embiid will go down as an all-time great especially if he has a dominant and healthy postseason run in him, for which he should have plenty of time still. And that's all that should matter to those who are fans of the 76ers and/or Embiid.

[ChartFiction]

Has anyone ever been as efficient as Embiid on from 10ft out to the 3pt line? He shoots 51% from 10-16ft and 53% from 16ft-3P, and together that accounts for 42% of all his FGA, i.e., the volume is obscene for today's era as well. And those numbers do not yet take into account the Spurs game! I'm sure those numbers have been rivaled in the past (e.g., by Dirk a couple times) but we still have to account for how frequently Embiid is fouled on shots from this area (which also helps him shoot less tightly contested shots in general because defenders are afraid of being called for a foul) and his elite FT%. Once we factor that in, Embiid has to be the most efficient midrange player ever, no?

I'll have to be honest in one point, though. I made a conscious effort to enjoy greatness more. During the GSW era, it was at times hard for me to do that because great players were rivals and threats, so I often could not just lean back and enjoy. Now that the GSW era is over and my general perspective has changed a bit also, I try to watch great players do great things with more joy and make an effort to catch their games. But I just can't with the 76ers and Embiid. The foul-baiting and the cheap fouls that are constantly called in his favor simply turn me off. And that's a pity because Embiid is such a marvelous player who I would like to be able to enjoy watching.

But that's my perspective and it obviously doesn't matter. 76ers fans will rightfully count their lucky stars to have Embiid on the team, and Embiid will go down as an all-time great especially if he has a dominant and healthy postseason run in him, for which he should have plenty of time still. And that's all that should matter to those who are fans of the 76ers and/or Embiid.

SGA is shooting better from midrange this season and Durant has had similar seasons as of late.

But yeah, 50%+ from 10ft+ on decent volume enters a midrange efficiency tier that is hardly ever reached by even great shooters.

[Peregrine01]

I’m just not really moved by huge regular season scoring outbursts anymore. When you combine a bad team and a soft whistle and a scorer as talented as Embiid who exploits both and is intent on putting up monster numbers, you’re bound to get nights like these.

[The-Power]

SGA is shooting better from midrange this season and Durant has had similar seasons as of late.

But yeah, 50%+ from 10ft+ on decent volume enters a midrange efficiency tier that is hardly ever reached by even great shooters.

SGA is more efficient but on lower volume. Durant has Embiid beat on volume and shooting percentages for a couple seasons, but I'm not sure either has been more efficient once you take into account shooting fouls. I would love to see Embiid's efficiency when we factor in shooting fouls on 2pt jumpers but not sure that's readily accessible.

[The-Power]

I’m just not really moved by huge regular season scoring outbursts anymore. When you combine a bad team and a soft whistle and a scorer as talented as Embiid who exploits both and is intent on putting up monster numbers, you’re bound to get nights like these.

They are still incredible rare, though. So even factoring in all these circumstances, it's pretty impressive what he has done or else we would see those kind of scoring outbursts a lot more often.

[Peregrine01]

I’m just not really moved by huge regular season scoring outbursts anymore. When you combine a bad team and a soft whistle and a scorer as talented as Embiid who exploits both and is intent on putting up monster numbers, you’re bound to get nights like these.

They are still incredible rare, though. So even factoring in all these circumstances, it's pretty impressive what he has done or else we would see those kind of scoring outbursts a lot more often.

The way the game is officiated now I’d be surprised if we DON’T get a 70 point game every season now.

[WestGOAT]

I’m just not really moved by huge regular season scoring outbursts anymore. When you combine a bad team and a soft whistle and a scorer as talented as Embiid who exploits both and is intent on putting up monster numbers, you’re bound to get nights like these.

Call me a hater or whatever, but statlines against bottom-feeders of this season, like the Spurs, Wizards, Pistons, Hornets, the injury-riddled Grizzlies, especially in this era, should be taken with a pinch of salt. These teams don't belong in the NBA.

Honestly, for example, pretty sure not many non-Portland people care or even remember that Dame put up 70+ points (I had to look it up) against the Rockets last year?

[Texas Chuck]

Embiid took Doc's comments personally....

[AEnigma]

I’m just not really moved by huge regular season scoring outbursts anymore. When you combine a bad team and a soft whistle and a scorer as talented as Embiid who exploits both and is intent on putting up monster numbers, you’re bound to get nights like these.

Call me a hater or whatever, but statlines against bottom-feeders of this season, like the Spurs, Wizards, Pistons, Hornets, the injury-riddled Grizzlies, especially in this era, should be taken with a pinch of salt. These teams don't belong in the NBA.

Honestly, for example, pretty sure not many non-Portland people care or even remember that Dame put up 70+ points (I had to look it up) against the Rockets last year?

I had a longer comment typed before the classic RealGM webpage crash.

Most historically notable scoring performances have either occurred against a bad team or involved several overtimes:

Kobe’s 81 and 65 were both against bottom five teams. Skywalker’s 73 was against a Lanier-less Pistons team. David Robinson’s 71 was against a bad Clippers team while he was blatantly chasing the scoring title. And the early 1960s Knicks allowed 71 to Baylor, 73 to Wilt… and of course that 100 to Wilt. Then on the other side, Jordan’s three career high outputs all featured at least one overtime. Wilt’s 78 was a triple overtime game. Mitchell’s 71, overtime game.

That is part of why the most legendary scoring game to me is Kobe’s 62 in three quarters against a Mavericks team that would go to the Finals that season. And people remember that game — just not as much as when he scored 82.

[falcolombardi]

Hot take: Embiid has the highest growth rate in NBA history in regards to skill/IQ development. There's no reason for someone as raw as him to have picked up bball at 15 and become this good at his size. His brain literally is built different as far as whatever it is that helps him refine and retain fine motor skills

He was surprisingly refined by the time he was at kansas, then came out of 2 years injured alrrady having a star level polish on his offensive game as a nba rookie and has developed one of the most complete scoring games of any big ever now

I dont even think his game is or should be reliant in a soft whistle and actually suspect the mental aspect of hunting for free throws does more damage to him than help in the playoffs

Like there is no actual physical or game reason a pkayer with his physical and skillset tools should struggle in the playoffs (huge, quick, monster touch at midrange, can back down smaller bigs easily, too quick for bigger centers)

[eminence]

Big scoring night. Shoulda been 64 and the W for KAT.

[70sFan]

I’m just not really moved by huge regular season scoring outbursts anymore. When you combine a bad team and a soft whistle and a scorer as talented as Embiid who exploits both and is intent on putting up monster numbers, you’re bound to get nights like these.

Call me a hater or whatever, but statlines against bottom-feeders of this season, like the Spurs, Wizards, Pistons, Hornets, the injury-riddled Grizzlies, especially in this era, should be taken with a pinch of salt. These teams don't belong in the NBA.

Honestly, for example, pretty sure not many non-Portland people care or even remember that Dame put up 70+ points (I had to look it up) against the Rockets last year?

I had a longer comment typed before the classic RealGM webpage crash.

Most historically notable scoring performances have either occurred against a bad team or involved several overtimes:

Kobe’s 81 and 65 were both against bottom five teams. Skywalker’s 73 was against a Lanier-less Pistons team. David Robinson’s 71 was against a bad Clippers team while he was blatantly chasing the scoring title. And the early 1960s Knicks allowed 71 to Baylor, 73 to Wilt… and of course that 100 to Wilt. Then on the other side, Jordan’s three career high outputs all featured at least one overtime. Wilt’s 78 was a triple overtime game. Mitchell’s 71, overtime game.

That is part of why the most legendary scoring game to me is Kobe’s 62 in three quarters against a Mavericks team that would go to the Finals that season. And people remember that game — just not as much as when he scored 82.

I get the point, though Wilt also had another two 70+ points games against quality opponents:

1. 72 points against the Lakers on 03.11.1962 (no OT, finals team)
2. 70 points against the Nationals on 10.03.1963 (no OT, playoff team)

[sp6r=underrated]

I think all of us have players we wonder about in the pace and space era which is as big of a change since anything post-Shot Clock.

The player I'm most curious about right now is Pau. He was very valuable in his era but I could see him being substantially more valuable now given the revival of the center as passing position model.

[falcolombardi]

I think all of us have players we wonder about in the pace and space era which is as big of a change since anything post-Shot Clock.

The player I'm most curious about right now is Pau. He was very valuable in his era but I could see him being substantially more valuable now given the revival of the center as passing position model.

On the flipside of it, post up play outside the outliers at it and non mobile centers who are not elite rim protectors have lost value too

There are other tradeoffs but i dont see pau as much better than like, currente domantas sabonis (admittedly still an all star level player)

[Special_Puppy]

I think all of us have players we wonder about in the pace and space era which is as big of a change since anything post-Shot Clock.

The player I'm most curious about right now is Pau. He was very valuable in his era but I could see him being substantially more valuable now given the revival of the center as passing position model.

How good would Hakeem be in today's era? Would he still be able to get maintain most of his enormous defensive value? Would he be able to get close to the offensive impact of Embiid et al?

[sp6r=underrated]

I think all of us have players we wonder about in the pace and space era which is as big of a change since anything post-Shot Clock.

The player I'm most curious about right now is Pau. He was very valuable in his era but I could see him being substantially more valuable now given the revival of the center as passing position model.

How good would Hakeem be in today's era? Would he still be able to get maintain most of his enormous defensive value? Would he be able to get close to the offensive impact of Embiid et al?

I don't see any world in which Hakeem could get the offensive value of Embiid. He was neither the shooter or foul drawer that Embiid was. And his passing was weaker as well.

That isn't a knock on Hakeem BTW just a credit to how good Joel is.