San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight

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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#21 » by Colbinii » Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:41 pm

jarryd3107 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
jarryd3107 wrote:
Poole is a 24 year old who was playing close to elite basketball when he signed his extension, there were stretches of the nba finals when he was the best player on the floor. He then got assaulted in the workplace and hasn’t been right since. Teams with young rosters, strong culture and cap space can do a lot worse than taking a chance on him.

Poole is far from the worst player in the league.


He is definitely the most negative player in the NBA, given his efficiency/usage.


By what metric? In the East he’s 34th worst in PER (with 14 players worse than him with similar minutes) and he’s 15th worst in TS%. Even his usage rate (25%) is second on the wizards and not even top 50 in the NBA.

I think it’s fair to say he’s not having a great year but he is far from the worst/most negative player in the NBA.


He ranks 2nd to last in WS and BPM he ranks 2nd to last.

You are right, he is second worst. The worst player in the NBA this year is Scoot Henderson. Poole is 2nd worst.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#22 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:43 pm

Lucky Once wrote:I don't think Wizards fans are trying to say that Deni (and Kispert) hold the value of (2) firsts and relief from Jordan Poole's contract. I think that most of us just believe it strategically wouldn't make sense for Washington to bother using assets to get off Poole, due to his massive negative value. From a value perspective, it's unlikely Avdija or Kispert could be replaced with those 24 and 25 firsts. Both are still improving and locked into relatively team friendly deals at least through next season, at which point Kispert will become a RFA. There is no rush to move either if the goal is just extending the window of that asset.



If Washington had young potential stars in place, sure. Keep Deni and his good contract to be one of the vets who helps guide them forward and is still young enough to be a key cog when the team is good. But the team doesn't have that, and they don't have cap space to lure a good veteran or trade assets, other than their own picks which they shouldn't be dealing. So the Deni contract is just going to be wasted on a team going nowhere. And he's not so special of a player that you worry about losing him. So I see zero justification for punting this much value just because we like the kid.

Opportunities like this never actually come so if it did, Washington would have to jump on it IRL. It's about not diluting their value by attaching Poole. It's about they aren't worth much if any more than the picks on their own, and you get to dump Poole for nothing? Yeah, you have to. And Washington would if this was offered.

I know its hard because we love the guys we draft and develop. But very very few players spend a 3rd contract with one team.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#23 » by pcbothwel » Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:14 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:Sorry but if in return for Deni you got to dump Poole and got 2 1st round picks you could never work as an executive again if you turned that down. The Deni values have gotten way out of hand. He's a good role player on a really bad team. He's not a good role on a championship team so you want to hold on to him. If someone wants to give you crazy value, you take crazy value.

Spurs would never consider this. I think 2 firsts for Deni is too much as is, much less saying sure we'll eat the giant mistake of Poole. Wizards gave the Warriors a get of jail free card, no other team is going to repeat that for them.

Just not close here.


Interesting. Here is a great comparison. Thoughts.
Player A: 23 y/o, SF/PF, 5/60M
Per36: 16 / 8 / 5 / 1.7 (BLKS+STLS) - 2:1 AST:TOV; TS: 60%

Player B: 22 y/o, SF/PF, 2/12M
Per36: 22 / 6 / 4 / 1.7 (BLKS+STLS) - 2:1 AST:TOV; TS: 57%

Both players are the same age (9 months apart) and average the same BLKS/STLS.
Both players are regarded as good high IQ defenders that play a point forward type role

Player A gets more rebounds (Offensive & Defensive) and more assist at a slightly better ratio.
Player A is owed more money, but clearly has a better contract.

Player B scores more points, but at a lower efficiency. It takes him 5.5 more FGA and 1.5 FTA to score 6 more points (50% TS).

Spoiler:
Player A is Deni
Player B is Franz Wagner
What is Franz worth, knowing you will be paying him 40-45M/Year while Deni is making 13M/year
Oh...and Franz plays ~60% of his minutes with Paolo and Suggs, while Deni plays 60% of his minutes with Kuzma and Poole
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#24 » by jayjaysee » Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:20 pm

I think the Toronto pick being involved sways this in favor of Washington?

If we were just talking two random picks, sure Washington can tank and hope to draft well.. But the Toronto pick will very likely be a top 10 pick in one of next two drafts.. Mix that with Bilal and the next two Washington firsts and Washington could have a strong young core..
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#25 » by penbeast0 » Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:28 pm

Colbinii wrote:
jarryd3107 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
He is definitely the most negative player in the NBA, given his efficiency/usage.


By what metric? In the East he’s 34th worst in PER (with 14 players worse than him with similar minutes) and he’s 15th worst in TS%. Even his usage rate (25%) is second on the wizards and not even top 50 in the NBA.

I think it’s fair to say he’s not having a great year but he is far from the worst/most negative player in the NBA.


He ranks 2nd to last in WS and BPM he ranks 2nd to last.

You are right, he is second worst. The worst player in the NBA this year is Scoot Henderson. Poole is 2nd worst.


Haven't seen a lot of Scoot this year, but is he in the neighborhood of Poole bad defensively? That wasn't his rep and Poole has been worse defensively than offensively if anything. That and of course he is this year's Shaqtin the Fool MVP leader right now.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#26 » by wemby » Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:44 pm

So the Spurs take on Poole who's been horrendous and is one of the worst contracts in the league, AND they give up two very promising picks for a non shooting 4 (they have one in Sochan) and a shooter (they have that in McDermott)?
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#27 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:47 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Spoiler:
Texas Chuck wrote:Sorry but if in return for Deni you got to dump Poole and got 2 1st round picks you could never work as an executive again if you turned that down. The Deni values have gotten way out of hand. He's a good role player on a really bad team. He's not a good role on a championship team so you want to hold on to him. If someone wants to give you crazy value, you take crazy value.

Spurs would never consider this. I think 2 firsts for Deni is too much as is, much less saying sure we'll eat the giant mistake of Poole. Wizards gave the Warriors a get of jail free card, no other team is going to repeat that for them.

Just not close here.


Interesting. Here is a great comparison. Thoughts.
Player A: 23 y/o, SF/PF, 5/60M
Per36: 16 / 8 / 5 / 1.7 (BLKS+STLS) - 2:1 AST:TOV; TS: 60%

Player B: 22 y/o, SF/PF, 2/12M
Per36: 22 / 6 / 4 / 1.7 (BLKS+STLS) - 2:1 AST:TOV; TS: 57%

Both players are the same age (9 months apart) and average the same BLKS/STLS.
Both players are regarded as good high IQ defenders that play a point forward type role

Player A gets more rebounds (Offensive & Defensive) and more assist at a slightly better ratio.
Player A is owed more money, but clearly has a better contract.

Player B scores more points, but at a lower efficiency. It takes him 5.5 more FGA and 1.5 FTA to score 6 more points (50% TS).

[spoiler]Player A is Deni
Player B is Franz Wagner
What is Franz worth, knowing you will be paying him 40-45M/Year while Deni is making 13M/year
Oh...and Franz plays ~60% of his minutes with Paolo and Suggs, while Deni plays 60% of his minutes with Kuzma and Poole
[/spoiler]


I'm sorry where did I bring up Wagner's value? In fact if you read non-Wizards threads you would actually see me expressing real concerns about he and Banchero being the best players on a contender and that I strongly believe Orlando is still looking for their best player.

And right now he's absolutely not on target for $45M/year. But also so not relevant to this deal. Trying to find comps to justify turning down a ton of value is a fun exercise maybe? But feels not super pertinent here also.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#28 » by Lucky Once » Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:42 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:If Washington had young potential stars in place, sure. Keep Deni and his good contract to be one of the vets who helps guide them forward and is still young enough to be a key cog when the team is good. But the team doesn't have that, and they don't have cap space to lure a good veteran or trade assets, other than their own picks which they shouldn't be dealing. So the Deni contract is just going to be wasted on a team going nowhere. And he's not so special of a player that you worry about losing him. So I see zero justification for punting this much value just because we like the kid.

Opportunities like this never actually come so if it did, Washington would have to jump on it IRL. It's about not diluting their value by attaching Poole. It's about they aren't worth much if any more than the picks on their own, and you get to dump Poole for nothing? Yeah, you have to. And Washington would if this was offered.

I know its hard because we love the guys we draft and develop. But very very few players spend a 3rd contract with one team.


I guess I still disagree and it has nothing to do with loving a player the team drafted. I'd honestly be happy for any of these guys to get out of this dumpster fire. Deni in particular I think could have a lot of success as a glue guy on a good team.

I don't see it as whether Deni, or Kispert, are part of the veteran core moving forward. By the time this team is ready to compete, they probably won't be in Washington. I see them both as assets that are not likely to decline in value this season. In fact, they both appear to be improving so that value could potentially increase, particularly as Deni's contract declines and becomes a lower % of the cap.

The team is not going to lure a good veteran that is going to become part of the core moving forward without a massive overpay. At that point we're talking about a negative value when the goal (or even option) is not to win now. The team does have cap space to take on bad contracts. Even with Jordan Poole they are only at 126m next season, with plenty of room below the tax. Landry Shamet's 11m is a team option. In future years they have significantly more cap space to work with. They also have over 30m in various TPE's that can be utilized. There are plenty of avenues to accept bad contracts for assets without first giving up assets.

The Wizards would love to add draft picks. Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert are absolutely available, but Washington is in no rush to make a move. They are going to be patient and keep a (unreasonably) high asking price. They are likely to believe they can do better in separate trades by not attaching Poole's contract and eating that themselves. He is a massive negative on the court but is not preventing them from making other moves. Paying assets to unload a contract just to create the possibility of acquiring assets by taking on bad contracts is nonsensical.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#29 » by Frichuela » Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:46 pm

Lucky Once wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:If Washington had young potential stars in place, sure. Keep Deni and his good contract to be one of the vets who helps guide them forward and is still young enough to be a key cog when the team is good. But the team doesn't have that, and they don't have cap space to lure a good veteran or trade assets, other than their own picks which they shouldn't be dealing. So the Deni contract is just going to be wasted on a team going nowhere. And he's not so special of a player that you worry about losing him. So I see zero justification for punting this much value just because we like the kid.

Opportunities like this never actually come so if it did, Washington would have to jump on it IRL. It's about not diluting their value by attaching Poole. It's about they aren't worth much if any more than the picks on their own, and you get to dump Poole for nothing? Yeah, you have to. And Washington would if this was offered.

I know its hard because we love the guys we draft and develop. But very very few players spend a 3rd contract with one team.


I guess I still disagree and it has nothing to do with loving a player the team drafted. I'd honestly be happy for any of these guys to get out of this dumpster fire. Deni in particular I think could have a lot of success as a glue guy on a good team.

I don't see it as whether Deni, or Kispert, are part of the veteran core moving forward. By the time this team is ready to compete, they probably won't be in Washington. I see them both as assets that are not likely to decline in value this season. In fact, they both appear to be improving so that value could potentially increase, particularly as Deni's contract declines and becomes a lower % of the cap.

The team is not going to lure a good veteran that is going to become part of the core moving forward without a massive overpay. At that point we're talking about a negative value when the goal (or even option) is not to win now. The team does have cap space to take on bad contracts. Even with Jordan Poole they are only at 126m next season, with plenty of room below the tax. Landry Shamet's 11m is a team option. In future years they have significantly more cap space to work with. They also have over 30m in various TPE's that can be utilized. There are plenty of avenues to accept bad contracts for assets without first giving up assets.

The Wizards would love to add draft picks. Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert are absolutely available, but Washington is in no rush to make a move. They are going to be patient and keep a (unreasonably) high asking price. They are likely to believe they can do better in separate trades by not attaching Poole's contract and eating that themselves. He is a massive negative on the court but is not preventing them from making other moves. Paying assets to unload a contract just to create the possibility of acquiring assets by taking on bad contracts is nonsensical.


This. Well said. WAS can afford to be patient with Poole, there is no rush.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#30 » by Colbinii » Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:53 pm

The time to move on from Poole is when he is directly affecting a key-cornerstone's development or hurting a team trying to win.

Golden State moved on from him when they decided to take Draymond Green's on-court production and proven track-record over Jordan Poole's talent but inability to play within a system and inability to keep his ego in check.

Right now, Washington sucks. They have a nice prospect in Coulibaly and Deni/Kispert are nice pieces but only Deni has the playmaking arsenal to truly make a leap in the near future to an actual star-type player.

Unfortunately they are on the hook for Poole for $96 Million over the next 3 years, but there is no need to spend any sort of assets, including Deni/Kispert, to get off of that contract.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#31 » by jbk1234 » Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:01 pm

The picks alone are fair value for Deni and Kispert (I have Kispert at multiple seconds).

That aside, all the folks who are insisting that really bad teams, who are just beginning rebuilds, should surrender significant value in order to get off of bad contracts because getting off those contracts is worth more than what they're paying are just wrong. It doesn't happen. Those players might eventually get bought out, but teams starting at zero don't attach, or assign, significant value to dump them as it makes no sense for them to do so.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#32 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:09 pm

jbk1234 wrote:The picks alone are fair value for Deni and Kispert (I have Kispert at multiple seconds).

That aside, all the folks who are insisting that really bad teams, who are just beginning rebuilds, should surrender significant value in order to get off of bad contracts because getting off those contracts is worth more than what they're paying are just wrong. It doesn't happen. Those players might eventually get bought out, but teams starting at zero don't attach, or assign, significant value to dump them as it makes no sense for them to do so.


Except that I'm literally not saying that lol. I'm saying the picks are the value for the players and the Poole dump is free.

I might be wrong, but please please at least let me be wrong for my own posts and not ones you just invent whole cloth. :lol: Goodness knows I'm wrong enough on my own merits. I don't need anyone helping me be wrong by totaling changing what I'm saying into something else. Why do that?
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#33 » by wemby » Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:14 pm

jbk1234 wrote:The picks alone are fair value for Deni and Kispert (I have Kispert at multiple seconds).

Toronto's pick right now is more likely to convey than not with no 7 being the most likely spot, and it's top 6 protected for the next 2 drafts in case it doesn't convey in '24. The Hawks right now are a bottom 10 team, and may be worse next year in a better draft with an unprotected pick. So both those picks are likely lottery and NEITHER of those guys (Avdija & Kispert) is worth a lottery pick from a struggling teams like the Raptors or Hawks. It's just ridiculous.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#34 » by hugepatsfan » Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:17 pm

I like Deni, but I can't imagine anyone likes him more than 2 1sts and over $100M in salary savings lol
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#35 » by drosestruts » Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:32 pm

Windhorst says the front office has a mandate to acquire more first-round picks.

This trade nets them two, likely lottery, first round picks And gets them off a long-term deal in Poole.

If you're the Wizards this is "mission accomplished"

If you're the Spurs you're adding two good young forwards, and an underperforming expensive, albiet still young, player who was recently a key bench piece for a championship team. You still have al your own picks, plus the 2025 Chicago pick over the next 2 years.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#36 » by jbk1234 » Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:45 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:The picks alone are fair value for Deni and Kispert (I have Kispert at multiple seconds).

That aside, all the folks who are insisting that really bad teams, who are just beginning rebuilds, should surrender significant value in order to get off of bad contracts because getting off those contracts is worth more than what they're paying are just wrong. It doesn't happen. Those players might eventually get bought out, but teams starting at zero don't attach, or assign, significant value to dump them as it makes no sense for them to do so.


Except that I'm literally not saying that lol. I'm saying the picks are the value for the players and the Poole dump is free.

I might be wrong, but please please at least let me be wrong for my own posts and not ones you just invent whole cloth. :lol: Goodness knows I'm wrong enough on my own merits. I don't need anyone helping me be wrong by totaling changing what I'm saying into something else. Why do that?


You're not the only one posting in this thread. Seriously, read some of these responses. No bad lottery team is ever attaching multiple firsts to get off a contract. They'll buy the player out and eat the cap space first. If the inclusion of Poole is a deal breaker from the Spurs perspective, and it should be, then people should say that.

Also, I think the GM would never work in the NBA again if he turned the offer down was over the top. Even if the value is objectively great in a vacuum, teams have goals that don't necessarily coincide with winning trades on value alone. Getting off of Poole's deal is not going be a priority. Collecting young talent and picks will be.

If the Wizards are higher on Deni than they should be, it might be because they've sucked at drafting for a decade. If you don't have confidence in your front office or scouting department, then you should A) fix that, and B) maybe not trade the one guy you hit on until it's fixed.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#37 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Jan 26, 2024 7:03 pm

jbk1234 wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:The picks alone are fair value for Deni and Kispert (I have Kispert at multiple seconds).

That aside, all the folks who are insisting that really bad teams, who are just beginning rebuilds, should surrender significant value in order to get off of bad contracts because getting off those contracts is worth more than what they're paying are just wrong. It doesn't happen. Those players might eventually get bought out, but teams starting at zero don't attach, or assign, significant value to dump them as it makes no sense for them to do so.


Except that I'm literally not saying that lol. I'm saying the picks are the value for the players and the Poole dump is free.

I might be wrong, but please please at least let me be wrong for my own posts and not ones you just invent whole cloth. :lol: Goodness knows I'm wrong enough on my own merits. I don't need anyone helping me be wrong by totaling changing what I'm saying into something else. Why do that?


You're not the only one posting in this thread. Seriously, read some of these responses. No bad lottery team is ever attaching multiple firsts to get off a contract. They'll buy the player out and eat the cap space first. If the inclusion of Poole is a deal breaker from the Spurs perspective, and it should be, then people should say that.

Also, I think the GM would never work in the NBA again if he turned the offer down was over the top. Even if the value is objectively great in a vacuum, teams have goals that don't necessarily coincide with winning trades on value alone. Getting off of Poole's deal is not going be a priority. Collecting young talent and picks will be.

If the Wizards are higher on Deni than they should be, it might be because they've sucked at drafting for a decade. If you don't have confidence in your front office or scouting department, then you should A) fix that, and B) maybe not trade the one guy you hit on until it's fixed.


I've read the thread. And not a single poster has remotely suggested that what bad teams should do is add a bunch of value to dump a bad contract. And nobody has said it about Poole and Washington specifically.

I am the poster most insistent that Washington should do this and your comments seemed in direct response to that except again for you creating a narrative that is not itt.

So again I ask, why? What is gained from creating an argument to knock it down?
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#38 » by jbk1234 » Fri Jan 26, 2024 7:12 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
Except that I'm literally not saying that lol. I'm saying the picks are the value for the players and the Poole dump is free.

I might be wrong, but please please at least let me be wrong for my own posts and not ones you just invent whole cloth. :lol: Goodness knows I'm wrong enough on my own merits. I don't need anyone helping me be wrong by totaling changing what I'm saying into something else. Why do that?


You're not the only one posting in this thread. Seriously, read some of these responses. No bad lottery team is ever attaching multiple firsts to get off a contract. They'll buy the player out and eat the cap space first. If the inclusion of Poole is a deal breaker from the Spurs perspective, and it should be, then people should say that.

Also, I think the GM would never work in the NBA again if he turned the offer down was over the top. Even if the value is objectively great in a vacuum, teams have goals that don't necessarily coincide with winning trades on value alone. Getting off of Poole's deal is not going be a priority. Collecting young talent and picks will be.

If the Wizards are higher on Deni than they should be, it might be because they've sucked at drafting for a decade. If you don't have confidence in your front office or scouting department, then you should A) fix that, and B) maybe not trade the one guy you hit on until it's fixed.


I've read the thread. And not a single poster has remotely suggested that what bad teams should do is add a bunch of value to dump a bad contract. And nobody has said it about Poole and Washington specifically.

I am the poster most insistent that Washington should do this and your comments seemed in direct response to that except again for you creating a narrative that is not itt.

So again I ask, why? What is gained from creating an argument to knock it down?


The 6th post in this thread literally suggests just that. You wrote what you wrote about the Wizards GM never working in the NBA again. I created nothing. People can read for themselves. I'm done arguing about it.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#39 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Jan 26, 2024 7:26 pm

You know post 6 isn't a serious post though..... But yeah we should be done having to say don't create strawmen.
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Re: San Antonio & Washington: The District Sleeps Alone Tonight 

Post#40 » by wemby » Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:23 am

drosestruts wrote:If you're the Spurs you're adding two good young forwards, and an underperforming expensive, albiet still young, player who was recently a key bench piece for a championship team. You still have al your own picks, plus the 2025 Chicago pick over the next 2 years.

Spurs don't need okayish forwards the like of which they already have, what they need is a legit future 2nd star alongside Wemby, and this diminishes their chances of landing one. Spurs take a long laugh and then hang up the phone.

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