2024 NBA Draft Thread

[FarBeyondDriven]

Sarr is averaging 9/4 in Australia, shoots 29% from 3 and barely 60% from the line, has more TOs than assists and more fouls than blocks.

i think we like the idea of Sarr more than the reality at this point. if you think he's on par with Mobes as a prospect more power to you, but just don't get offended or shocked if no one agrees with this right now.

who is offended or shocked? I don't think it's apples to apples since the game overseas is completely different. All I do when making that comparison is see that both are around 7'1" with similar length and athleticism. Both show a nice shooting touch as prospects. Both move extremely well as help defenders and meeting drivers at the rim with the ability to block shots. Both have the ability to switch and defend the perimeter. Both are alley oop and pick and pop threats off the PnR. Both lack bulk to go up against more traditional centers. I dunno man, they're just ridiculously similar in almost every way. So if you liked Mobley, and I'm sure you all did, not liking Sarr seems kinda suspect and agenda driven.

Evan Mobley is a career 23% shooter from three and only 68% from FT. Mobley barely has a 1:1 assist to TO ratio and also has more PF than blocks.

Mobley totaled 79 assists to 74 TOs at USC and 95 blocks to 58 fouls. The numbers are completely flipped for Sarr right now that you can't even really compare and I dont know where you are getting your numbers for Mobley from

again we all like Sarr's raw ability and movement skills at his size but it's clear he's not there yet on the court, and to compare him to Mobley who had a monster freshmen in college is nonsense. i don't think Sarr would be anywhere near as good as what Mobley was on USC right now, but we'll never know.

my bad. I was looking at his numbers as a pro where he has way more PF to blocks.

I think if Mobley played in college he'd have similar numbers as Mobley did at USC. That's why it's not apples to apples. Completely different leagues and competition level. In a vacuum if you showed a scout each player's measurements and highlights from their very best game I believe scouts would come away believing they're nearly identical prospects. The only difference I see between them is that Mobley had the ESPN marketing machine behind him due to playing college and the uniqueness of playing with his brother and much higher visibility as a result.

It's also not fair to use his averages in the NBL against him since he didn't play a lot of minutes. You've used PER 36 in the past to defend players so...His PER 36 is 19-9-2 with 2.5 blocks which are very similar to Mobley's PER 36 at USC (can't find PER 36 but his PER 40 are 19-10-3 with 3.4 blocks) with both shooting 30% from three

[FarBeyondDriven]

Mobley was largely viewed as a hyper intelligent guy which is super important for defense. Jalen Duren's physical tools are as good as Mobley's, but Duren is one of the worst defenders in the NBA because he has no clue (which could change as he gets older).

Sarr's BBIQ hasn't been that highly praised in comparison

where are you getting this from? BBIQ is one of his very easily recognizable pluses imo

Sarr has also put tons of work into his jumpshot which makes him a much worse shooting prospect than Mobley was because Sarr has gone out of his way to show that he can't shoot and will probably never learn how to shoot (like how the Thompsons last year were basically guaranteed non-shooters because they had tried so hard to learn and had failed completely).

none of this makes any sense to me. You're comparing an 18 y/o to 20 y/o and assuming Mobley didn' also work his butt off on his shot but failed as well?


Sarr is Ayton with like 80% of his talent which is like... Okay I guess.

if you say so

Sarr's positional value sucks so I have him like 8th or 9th. You can get a good center really easily and he's pretty risky as his motor isn't great.

first I've heard of this. where did you pull this from? Based on what?

[clyde21]

who is offended or shocked? I don't think it's apples to apples since the game overseas is completely different. All I do when making that comparison is see that both are around 7'1" with similar length and athleticism. Both show a nice shooting touch as prospects. Both move extremely well as help defenders and meeting drivers at the rim with the ability to block shots. Both have the ability to switch and defend the perimeter. Both are alley oop and pick and pop threats off the PnR. Both lack bulk to go up against more traditional centers. I dunno man, they're just ridiculously similar in almost every way. So if you liked Mobley, and I'm sure you all did, not liking Sarr seems kinda suspect and agenda driven.

Evan Mobley is a career 23% shooter from three and only 68% from FT. Mobley barely has a 1:1 assist to TO ratio and also has more PF than blocks.

Mobley totaled 79 assists to 74 TOs at USC and 95 blocks to 58 fouls. The numbers are completely flipped for Sarr right now that you can't even really compare and I dont know where you are getting your numbers for Mobley from

again we all like Sarr's raw ability and movement skills at his size but it's clear he's not there yet on the court, and to compare him to Mobley who had a monster freshmen in college is nonsense. i don't think Sarr would be anywhere near as good as what Mobley was on USC right now, but we'll never know.

my bad. I was looking at his numbers as a pro where he has way more PF to blocks.

I think if Mobley played in college he'd have similar numbers as Mobley did at USC. That's why it's not apples to apples. Completely different leagues and competition level. In a vacuum if you showed a scout each player's measurements and highlights from their very best game I believe scouts would come away believing they're nearly identical prospects. The only difference I see between them is that Mobley had the ESPN marketing machine behind him due to playing college and the uniqueness of playing with his brother and much higher visibility as a result.

It's also not fair to use his averages in the NBL against him since he didn't play a lot of minutes. You've used PER 36 in the past to defend players so...His PER 36 is 19-9-2 with 2.5 blocks which are very similar to Mobley's PER 36 at USC (can't find PER 36 but his PER 40 are 19-10-3 with 3.4 blocks) with both shooting 30% from three

that's fine - but where is the evidence that we should hold Sarr in the same light as Mobley as prospects? "If he played at USC he'd be just as good" isnt good enough.

[Hal14]

Mobley was largely viewed as a hyper intelligent guy which is super important for defense. Jalen Duren's physical tools are as good as Mobley's, but Duren is one of the worst defenders in the NBA because he has no clue (which could change as he gets older).

Sarr's BBIQ hasn't been that highly praised in comparison.

Sarr has also put tons of work into his jumpshot which makes him a much worse shooting prospect than Mobley was because Sarr has gone out of his way to show that he can't shoot and will probably never learn how to shoot (like how the Thompsons last year were basically guaranteed non-shooters because they had tried so hard to learn and had failed completely).

Sarr is Ayton with like 80% of his talent which is like... Okay I guess.

Sarr's positional value sucks so I have him like 8th or 9th. You can get a good center really easily and he's pretty risky as his motor isn't great.

This entire post is hilarious..so much wrong with it, so much that makes no sense.

The most laughable part is the bold part lol.

Mobley was hyper intelligent and Sarr is not..says who? Sarr's BBIQ isn't highly praised..by who? Why not make your own evaluations?

8th or 9th? Sarr has a strong case for being just as good (if not better) as a prospect than Mobley.

These stats include the 2 games vs G League ignite and they don't include the monster game he had last night:


upload image

No improvement with Sarr's jumper? The kid is 18 yrs old! 21% from 3 in 21-22 at OTE. Then 27% for OTE in 22-23. THEN 28% at FIBA last summer, and then 31% so far this season so that's 4% higher this season than it was last season - despite going WAY up in competition level. That's improvement. Steady improvement, and he is still only 18 and hasn't even got to the NBA yet where they have better coaches and skills trainers.

And volume is a key indicator of shooting projection. Sarr's volume is 5x higher than Mobley's was when Mobley was at USC (5 3PA/40 mins compared to 1). Sarr also had a higher 3 FG%, despite being about a year younger and facing better competition.

If I re-run these numbers with last night's game, Sarr will look even better. And he's still getting better, at age 18 so the games he still has left to play this season he will continue to show improvement to raise his draft stock even more.

Concerns about Sarr's motor? Are you kidding me? Have you ever seen him play? His motor is crazy high. He had a good motor for 2 years at OTE, good motor at FIBA and good motor for Perth.

What is this garbage nonsense about Sarr is a 18 and won't get any better at shooting? Derrick White has made tremendous improvement as a shooter at age 28 and 29. Grant Williams made a leap as a shooter at age 24. Scottie Barnes made a big leap this season as a shooter at age 22.

Guys keep developing and getting better until they're 26 - sometimes even older (like in derrick white's case).

Why? Because these guys continue to work on their craft everyday and have access to the best coaches and trainers in the world - the ones who coach/train NBA players.

BTW, Sarr went 6/6 from the line last night and is up to 67.6% FT, including the 2 games vs Ignite..not the 64% that you're going on about.

And non one is projecting Sarr to be an elite shooter. But if he can be at least a respectable shooter in the NBA, that gives him more value as a player. He certainly has a chance to be a better shooter than Mobley..and Mobley as it is would likely go number 1 in the 2024 draft.

Lastly, FT% is an indicator but it's not the end all be all metric for shooting projection. Jokic shot 65% FT in his pre-draft season. Santi Aldama shot 68%. Al Horford shot 64%. Marc Gasol shot 64%, Jaylen Brown shot 65%, Scottie Barnes 62%, Demar Derozan 64%, Brandon Ingram 68%, Zach Lavine 69% FT, I could go on...

[HadAnEffectHere]

Sarr has also put tons of work into his jumpshot which makes him a much worse shooting prospect than Mobley was

Yeah?

If you try and try and try and try and try and try at something and it... just never works out.

I'm guessing you're literally never going to be able to do it due to some mental block or coordination problem that cannot be overcome.

This is the main reason I was so low on the Thompsons last year. They had worked so hard on their jumpshots and were absolutely terrible still with zero improvement. Sarr has had no improvement at any point in his jumper either.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I'm sorry but "he's gone from 27% to 28% to 31% from three while sticking at around 65% from the line" is just really sad as an argument.

This is like Ausar Thompson truthers from last year who seized on him shooting 35% from three for two weeks.

Sarr has the upside of a mediocre starting center which is probably the most replaceable type of guy in the NBA.

There was hope for Mobley's jumpshot (it hasn't panned out and he's not very valuable because of that), there is very little hope for Sarr's jumpshot.

[Hal14]

Updated to include stats from Sarr's game last night (also includes the 2 Perth vs Ignite games)

[HadAnEffectHere]

I really like to compare mostly offensive statistics of two players that are not good offensively and their entire thing is defensive impact.

Mobley offensively is pretty close to the worst starting PF in the NBA.

[Hal14]

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And oh by the way, Sarr is averaging more blocks per 40 mins than Mobley did at USC..despite Sarr being about a year younger and in a tougher league.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I'm not sure how many times I need to rephrase this, but like 30-60% of the hype for Mobley was about how smart he was.

Jalen Duren has the tools to be the best defender in the NBA, averaged more rebounds per 36 than Mobley, averaged more steals per 36 than Mobley, and averaged the same amount of blocks per 36 as Mobley in college.

Duren went 13th because he sucked at defense in college whereas Mobley went 3rd because he was one of the best defensive prospects of all time.

This has largely panned out in the NBA, where Mobley is a top 10-20 defender in the NBA whereas Duren is absolutely terrible at defense.

So stats+tools don't really say a lot for Mobley here, it was mostly BBIQ and coordination hype.

Mobley has been a disappointment in the NBA because is bad offensively because the jumpshot never came around to be clear.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I'm not sure how many times I need to rephrase this, but like 30-60% of the hype for Mobley was about how smart he was.

Jalen Duren has the tools to be the best defender in the NBA, averaged more rebounds per 36 than Mobley, averaged more steals per 36 than Mobley, and averaged the same amount of blocks per 36 as Mobley in college.

Duren went 13th because he sucked at defense in college whereas Mobley went 3rd because he was one of the best defensive prospects of all time.

This has largely panned out in the NBA, where Mobley is a top 10-20 defender in the NBA whereas Duren is absolutely terrible at defense.

So stats+tools don't really say a lot for Mobley here, it was mostly BBIQ and coordination hype.

Mobley has been a disappointment in the NBA because is bad offensively because the jumpshot never came around to be clear.

you're over-selling the BBIQ a bit. He was considered a top prospect because he is a legit 7 footer with great length and decent athleticism that had the potential to block shots down low and defend the perimeter on switches while potentially being able to pick and pop and hit open corner threes. Teams saw how effective JJJ was and Mobley was in that mold of a player. It was based on potential because you had to believe his jumper would come around and he'd pack on muscle and improve his feet with his perimeter defense. Unfortunately for the Cavs, almost nothing has gone the way they hoped. The feet still seem slow when defending the perimeter, he hasn't put on much if any muscle and his shot hasn't improved at all. But that doesn't change what he was as a prospect nor is it a death sentence since he's got time to improve. And as is he's still a well above average starter, just not quite the elite player most thought he'd be.

Duren is a 6'9" old-school center built like a truck. He succeeded in college because he was a superior athlete and physical specimen. He went late lottery because he was undersized and couldn't shoot. His struggles in the NBA were very kinda predictable. It was a pretty weak center class that year which is why he even went in the lottery. BBIQ isn't really the reason he's struggling so much as he's just not really a center and he doesn't have the skills to play the power forward position. But because he's still a great athlete and physical specimen he can't help but get boards and easy baskets due to usage.

Mobley being great is part of the reason many believed the 2021 class was great. Now that we're a few years into it and Cade is piloting one of the worst teams in NBA history and Green and Mobley are overhyped, the class is only still even decent is because Sengun and Johnson, taken much later, are saving it. So it's another reason why you shouldn't judge draft classes by the supposed top tier talent at the top because more often than not, those guys are overhyped and overrated and it's guys taken later that dictate a draft class' strength. Which is why I push back on people so much with the 2024 class since nobody has separated themselves as a supposed consensus top tier guy and that is seemingly how they rank classes.

I think we can all see there's no elite Wembanyama, Zion, AD, KD type guy but imho there are numerous Franz type prospects and to me that prevents it from being weak. Whether it's good or great remains to be seen but I'm very confident it's not weak. There will be a lot of posters completely exposed if this turns out to be an average, good or great draft class after vehemently claiming it's weak a full year before the college season and sticking with that story despite so much more information we now have.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I really like to compare mostly offensive statistics of two players that are not good offensively and their entire thing is defensive impact.

Mobley offensively is pretty close to the worst starting PF in the NBA.

I was never too high on him, liked him, didn't love him or think he was AD lite like some were saying. That said, it's a little unfair since he's played next to Allen and spacing for him has not been optimal. I won't write off his chances of being great until I see him play the 5 with Allen out. If you look at the times Allen missed games in 22/23 Mobley played some of the best ball in his career.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Mobley totaled 79 assists to 74 TOs at USC and 95 blocks to 58 fouls. The numbers are completely flipped for Sarr right now that you can't even really compare and I dont know where you are getting your numbers for Mobley from

again we all like Sarr's raw ability and movement skills at his size but it's clear he's not there yet on the court, and to compare him to Mobley who had a monster freshmen in college is nonsense. i don't think Sarr would be anywhere near as good as what Mobley was on USC right now, but we'll never know.

my bad. I was looking at his numbers as a pro where he has way more PF to blocks.

I think if Mobley played in college he'd have similar numbers as Mobley did at USC. That's why it's not apples to apples. Completely different leagues and competition level. In a vacuum if you showed a scout each player's measurements and highlights from their very best game I believe scouts would come away believing they're nearly identical prospects. The only difference I see between them is that Mobley had the ESPN marketing machine behind him due to playing college and the uniqueness of playing with his brother and much higher visibility as a result.

It's also not fair to use his averages in the NBL against him since he didn't play a lot of minutes. You've used PER 36 in the past to defend players so...His PER 36 is 19-9-2 with 2.5 blocks which are very similar to Mobley's PER 36 at USC (can't find PER 36 but his PER 40 are 19-10-3 with 3.4 blocks) with both shooting 30% from three

that's fine - but where is the evidence that we should hold Sarr in the same light as Mobley as prospects? "If he played at USC he'd be just as good" isnt good enough.

the fact that he has almost identical size, athleticism and skill set and similar PER numbers isn't evidence? I mean, what else do you need? Where's your evidence that we should NOT hold him in the same light as Mobley?

[HadAnEffectHere]

"Mobley was drafted high because of JJJ" is both completely wrong and so baffling weird that I'm really confused.

JJJ's first two years were good, but not special, but his third year saw him miss nearly the entire regular season before coming back to guard Rudy Gobert in the postseason. He was humiliated by Gobert, giving up 17 PPG on 78% shooting.

Scouts did not look at JJJ's third season and go "we have to draft Evan Mobley now"

There's a reason why JJJ's contract is so weirdly small right now, it's because his third year was a disaster.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I think Bronny James will end up having the worst stats of any guard taken in the first round in NBA history?

Justin Edwards was benched and got 9 minutes tonight, he has no shot of being drafted, has to transfer. Probably surpasses Brandon Boston and Skal as the worst preseason bust ever.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I'm starting to believe there's a very good chance that many of the OAD talents are going to be forced to return due to lack of usage and production. It doesn't matter if you have the most NBA potential if they're not playing you, your tape isn't impressive and scouts aren't convinced. Who are the for sure OADs? Collier, Walter and Williams are the only ones I'm pretty certain about. It would not surprise me at all if most of the following returned:

Dillingham
Sheppard
Foster
McCain
Stojakovic
Furphy
Mara
Ivisic
Bradshaw
Mgbako
Wagner
Carrington
Castle
Missi
Edwards
James

This would be disastrous for this draft class' strength.

[FarBeyondDriven]

"Mobley was drafted high because of JJJ" is both completely wrong and so baffling weird that I'm really confused.

JJJ's first two years were good, but not special, but his third year saw him miss nearly the entire regular season before coming back to guard Rudy Gobert in the postseason. He was humiliated by Gobert, giving up 17 PPG on 78% shooting.

Scouts did not look at JJJ's third season and go "we have to draft Evan Mobley now"

There's a reason why JJJ's contract is so weirdly small right now, it's because his third year was a disaster.

I love how you're inventing quotes. That's not how it works. When you quote someone you have to quote what they actually said. Otherwise, it's disingenous and weakens your followup argument. I said "Teams saw how effective JJJ was and Mobley was in that mold of a player" referencing how Mobley looked like he'd bring all the things to the table (shot blocking, spreading the floor, defending the perimeter, as a long 4/5) as JJJ had been.

The Grizzlies rewarded him with a 4 year $105 million contract after that "disastrous" third year when he was still just 22 y/o I'd hardly consider that "weirdly small" He's the Grizzlies 2nd highest paid player making $27 million. He's going to make bank when his next deal is due. Don't you worry too much about poor JJJ

imagine blaming 21 y/o JJJ for that series loss btw. You do realize Valanciunas was the Grizzlies center not JJJ right? Why are you blaming JJJ for Gobert? Anyhoo, that veteran Jazz team was low-key loaded and that was an extremely young Grizzlies team and despite the difference in experience they actually played them relatively tough and JJJ played decent.

With that nonsense out of the way, every G.M. hopes when they're drafting a 4/5 that they can block shots, defend the perimeter and do enough shooting to keep the paint unclogged like the JJJ and ADs of the world.

[babyjax13]

Where would you rank this year's top 10 (whoever you have there) to whoever you had say ... top 15 last year? Just pulling from my big board last season:


1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Brandon Miller
4. Amen Thompson
5. Alexandre Sarr
6. Matas Buzelis
7. Anthony Black
8. Cam Whitmore
9. Ausur Thompson
10. Keyonte George
11. Jarace Walker
12. Cason Wallace
13. Nikola Topic
14. Cody Williams
15. Ja'Kobe Walter
16. Taylor Hendricks
17. Ron Holland
18. Kobe Bufkin
19. Stephon Castle
20. Dariq Whitehead
21. Bilal Coulibaly
22. Kyle Filipowski
23. Zaccharie Rissacher
24. Isaiah Collier
25. Grady Dick [tbh probably have Saluan ahead of him, too]

[Chuck Everett]

If I'm Kyle Filipowski, I burn the tape from that Clemson game. He was horrendous. I just don't know how he's going to defend NBA gigs with his metrics and the way he plays. He's got a lot of work to do.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I would be pretty shocked if Castle went in the first round and I'm convinced all of his hype is just internet people obsessed about his hypothetical archetype.

He's unathletic, can't dribble, and can't shoot... There's nothing here.

He's smart and 6'6"... That's literally his entire list of positives.

If I had to come up with a comparison, it would be post back injury Ben Simmons but smaller and worse at dribbling.