Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[Duke4life831]

CJ has a place on this team but not in the manner Green is choosing to use him. When he starts treating CJ like Jonas, this team might have a chance.

This is the answer right here. Overall Im not too upset over the loss last night because BOS is a top tier team, especially when Tatum plays like he did.

But ya this will continue to be the issue that underlines this team. BI and Zion both have good games, and its not even like CJ had a bad game. But CJ leads the team in minutes last night. While Jonas was having an impactful game and barely hits 20 minutes.

Willie seems so stuck on this being a big 3. Again CJ wasnt bad last night, but the adjustment that shouldve been made was seeing Jonas was being impactful and make the adjustments to get him back on the court.

BI/Zion are the two top guys. Youre going to have to ride or die with them with this team, just how it is. CJ shouldnt be in that group, CJ shouldnt be a ride or die guy for Willie. Like you said, treat him like Jonas. If one is more impactful than the other on that night, you ride with that one.

Again losing by 6 at BOS isnt anything to be up in arms about. But ya that little issue is still there.

[Whole Truth]

CJ has a place on this team but not in the manner Green is choosing to use him. When he starts treating CJ like Jonas, this team might have a chance.

This is the answer right here. Overall Im not too upset over the loss last night because BOS is a top tier team, especially when Tatum plays like he did.

But ya this will continue to be the issue that underlines this team. BI and Zion both have good games, and its not even like CJ had a bad game. But CJ leads the team in minutes last night. While Jonas was having an impactful game and barely hits 20 minutes.

Willie seems so stuck on this being a big 3. Again CJ wasnt bad last night, but the adjustment that shouldve been made was seeing Jonas was being impactful and make the adjustments to get him back on the court.

BI/Zion are the two top guys. Youre going to have to ride or die with them with this team, just how it is. CJ shouldnt be in that group, CJ shouldnt be a ride or die guy for Willie. Like you said, treat him like Jonas. If one is more impactful than the other on that night, you ride with that one.

Again losing by 6 at BOS isnt anything to be up in arms about. But ya that little issue is still there.

Boston's ATO was to get Tatum switched onto CJ. They hunted that matchup. You surprised Tatum played great ?

Dallas Kyrie/Hardaway 83 / 9 / 9
vs
CJ 23 & 4 on 17 shots tied for most taken


Suns - Booker 52 / 5 / 4
vs
CJ 13 & 4 on 13 shots, 2nd most taken


OKC - SGA leading scorer 31 / 5 / 6
vs
CJ 12 & 6 on 15 shots, team high -20, most taken


Bucks - Dame 26 / 6 / 9
vs
CJ 7 / 1 / 4 on 7 shots team high -30,


Boston - Tatum 28 / 10 / 10
vs
CJ 16 / 2 / 2 on 14 shots, 3rd most taken

The same principle is happening in these games that I'm alluding to with the Clippers matchups. CJ on the court allows Boston to play Jonas off the court defensively where he has a post advantage +6, that's why Green sat him for the 4th Q. He was worried Horford would stretch him. Jonas an offensive big man in these situations is getting less touches as a result of CJ being in the top 3 of shot attempts against these guard heavy teams. Where NO's could attack a weakness they choose to attack a strength with CJ & have come up woefully short. In some demoralizing losses.

For me it's not so much about the loss as much as how Green is viewing the overall situation. This is Casey & Derozan all over again for me. It's a tired & bad movie. I've seen enough of Jonas career to know if Green went Jonas & no CJ 4th Q, they probably win this game.

It was good to see Green start Jonas 3rd Q but the failure was in starting CJ who was being hunted with him. Jonas, Zion & CJ is too much of a liability to not be efficient in offensive touches & that's what happened a couple bad shots, a couple weak TO's = 8-2 run & Jonas pulled for Nance. Who faired no better despite ZIon getting hot. When Nance was subbed, NO's after regaining an 8pt lead were down 1. It wasn't until CJ was subbed 3:30 did NO's manage to build back an 8pt lead to eventually close the Q up 6.

[Whole Truth]

Someone posted Daniels & Herb were a -22 as a pairing.

I would like to know where that stat is from. Basketball reference has them as +3.8 in (422mins).

The best 2 man pairing NO's have is Zion & Daniels, +10.8 in (437mins)

2 man pairings of the starting units core

Zion + Daniels = 437 mins +10.8
Zion + Jonas = 648 mins +5.2
Zion + BI = 719 mins +1.4
Zion + Herb = 798 mins -.07
Zion + CJ = 642 mins -.08

BI + Jonas = 836 mins +2.3
BI + Daniels = 523 mins +2.1
BI + Jones = 981 mins +1.8
BI + Zion = 719 mins +1.4
BI + CJ = 676 mins +1.0

Herb + Jonas = 836 mins +4.1
Herb + Daniels = 422 mins +3.8
Herb + BI = 981 mins +1.8
Herb + CJ = 793 mins + .03
Herb + Zion = 798 mins -.07

Note Jonas & Daniels are at the top of all 3 of the cores 2 man pairings. Note who's at the bottom. Zion is at his best with Daniels, Herb & BI both paired with Jonas.

Zion - Daniels = 422 mins +10.8
Zion + CJ = 642 mins -.08

Zion - Jonas - Daniels = 200 mins +18.5
Zion - Jonas - CJ = 420 mins -0.2

Zion - Jonas - BI - Daniels = 142 mins +21.3
Zion - Jonas - BI - CJ = 334 mins -0.4

Zion - Jonas - BI - Herb - Daniels = 89 mins +20.2
Zion - Jonas - BI - Herb - CJ = 306 mins -1.6

[Whole Truth]

As the small 3 game sample size with Nance over Jonas has grown. So has the disparity of ball pressure over rim protection.

Jonas - Zion - BI - Herb - Daniels ball pressure = (89.37 mins) +20

Jonas - Zion - BI - Herb - CJ current rotation = (306 mins) -1.6

CJ - ZIon - BI - Herb - Nance rim protection = (50 mins) -8.4


Factor in, Nance & CJ are both shooting 45% from 3, CJ on 9 APG volume. Herb has had an uptick in 3pt efficiency touching 40% on 3 APG, with BI capable of being a threat... yet that lineup with spacing is a negative 8 in 50 mins to a lineup playing 4 on 5 offensively with Daniels & Jonas.

Here's where it gets tricky

How much does Allen improve what Nance does defensively to sacrifice his 45% spacing for better rim protection & rebounding ?. How much does Allen improve Jonas 3 level scoring efficiency, rebounding & 38% spacing ?. Where having Nance in for defense, he punishes a team for leaving him open every other shot & now, teams won't have to bother with a big man that doesn't even take 3's more less make them, when their plan is to zone Zion ?

Why bother trade Adams ?

How much is Murray a defensive downgrade from Daniels elite ball pressure to consider his 38% 3pt shooting on volume a net gain over Daniels elite perimeter defense ? Murray led the league in steals last yr but he can't stay in front his man like Daniels can, which is the key to his +22 rating & +10 rating paired with ZIon.

[Whole Truth]

JB used to coach Jonas in Memphis before becoming the Cavs head coach. He was why Jonas was extended after being traded by the Raptors to Memphis as an expiring filler to their then trade interest Delon Wright in the Gasol trade. Memphis ended up in the offseason drafting Ja, letting Delon go as a result & kept the expiring Jonas. Made the PO's in short order without 3J. Better believe JB knows what he's getting with Jonas & Daniels ..

Jonas, Dyson & a first for 2yrs of Allen because of CJ ?.

LMAO.

They wanted Herb, didn't they ? lol. Reason they put out news Allen is no longer available to the news Herb is not.

In 2yrs when NO's will be facing the extensions of Allen, BI & CJ. Cavs will have Daniels elite defense on rookie scale & control with a pick to wipe their ass with.

[Whole Truth]

It wouldn't shock me to see Cavs extend Jonas neither.

Like I said. Reason Utah blew up their roster is because Gobert's non shooting, elite rim defense, was exposed in the PO's. Same way Knicks booted Cavs first round. Same reason Wolves will be a regular season paper tiger.

The worth of Jonas 15m cost control contract, professionalism & matchup dominance, is for the versatility of roster. If ya only had a clue. You're trading what gives this team it's versatility so you can make CJ apart of a big 3 & will find out the hard way, when facing all 3 of Allen, BI & CJ's extensions with nothing to show for it. Sad part is, it's the same reason you're not using it to it's full potential running CJ in all guard matchups. See my post above where NO's were trounced by guard play.

Sit down & really ask yourself. If Allen is as good as you think he is, why would Cavs entertain trading such a good player in his prime & don't tell me the soft big man who's best in weakside defense is the reason.

The reason is Allen is an overpaid rim runner with no range & Cavs are taking front to his upcoming extension, will get an elite wing on rookie scale, who if he finds his shot, will make this trade look good. For the Cavs & ya can see why they wanted the sure thing in Herb.

[Whole Truth]

As mentioned. If you give Jonas 30 mins & more than 9 shots a game, he would average 20+ 10+ 2+ on good efficiency but where his real worth is, is in his value contract & professionalism. He compacts his 15 10 2 into an efficient 26 mins for 15m, with no fuss or complaints & low usage. Which is where this team gets it's versatility & matchup dominance, when paired with a 26min small ball centre

It comes down to recognition, usage & compliment of skill.

Good job tonight. Casey would have never made this adjustment ..

There's several PO teams in the West, weak in the middle, Jonas can do this to ...

[Whole Truth]

I wasn't going to but I can't resist.

NO's started the 4th Q 15-2. Houston didn't score their first 2pts till the 5:35 mark...

Dat rim protection at work ..

As I've alluded to. Offensive efficiency plays into defensive efficiency. What happened 4th Q is Houston had no answer for Jonas. This game, quarter, is why Jonas has been apart of 3 different teams to make top 5 in defense as an offensive C. Effort, efficiency & rebounding.

Note... the game got uncomfortably close when the guards started hunting their shots & missing. After going 15-2 playing through Jonas. Houston closed the half 26-20. Houston put up 18 pts in a 4 min span off of poor shot selection & TO's to make the game uncomfortable.

[Whole Truth]

Pelicans without ZIon -

(125-116) W vs Pistons - Jonas 23 / 13 / 5
(121-120) L vs Wolves - Jonas 26 / 11 / 3 / 3, no Nance, CJ, Murphy, Jose, away B2B Zion rest game
(110-105) L vs Utah - BI 26 / 8 / 1, no Nance, CJ, Murphy, Jose, 3rd game in 4 nights in mile high.
(142-122) W vs Washington - Jonas 16 / 18 / 3
(123-104) W vs Cavs - Murphy 28 / 4 / 1
(133-100) W vs Sacramento - CJ 30 / 7 / 4, Jonas 15 / 12, in 20 mins
(118-108) W vs Mavs - Hawkins 34 / 5 / 4, Jonas 14 / 12 / 7 who's gravity Hawkins played off of.
(107-83) L vs OKC - Jonas 14 / 9, starter best -7 in the blow out
(110-109) W vs Houston - Jonas 25 / 14 / 2

Team is 6-3 without ZIon & should have been 7-2 if Green would have just rode Jonas offense 4th Q vs Wolves in the away B2B 1 pt loss, instead of turning to Zeller for defense. The 2 other losses in these 9 games. Pels were also missing CJ, Murphy, Nance & Jose, so basically they're 6-1 with just Zion out, in large part due to Jonas. The 2 other losses they were missing 4 additional rotation players in 2 away B2B's one being 3 games in 4 nights in Utah for a scheduled loss, reason for sitting Zion. They lost that game by 2 possessions.

Carrying a team when needed at 15m, there's no value here, trade him.

People are right about fit but it's not Jonas & Zion who have the highest 2 man pairing of the starting 5, with +5. It's the defensive fit of Jonas & Zion with CJ, with Daniels they're +18. The starting unit needs one more defender outside of Herb, You can replace anyone of the 4 options in matchups & get a well balanced lineup but with ZIon being the franchise, BI his robin & Herb needed for defense. Jonas or CJ are expected to be subbed based in matchups, teams strengths & weaknesses. See my Clippers reference to Jonas being effective against them in a large sample size but run off the court defensively, when CJ is playing. In part because his touches go down with the efficiency of the tough shots taken from the guards against a good guard/wing defense.

[Whole Truth]

Jose played a great game & the praise is deserved but what about Daniels ?

Wemby had 14pts at the half & Daniels held him to 2pts 2nd half. He changed the game when Pelicans were down to start the 2nd & down 12 late 3rd. Are we going to act like Daniels didn't change this game defensively?

Pels went from not being able to get stops to shutting down Wemby because of Daniels.

That was a tall ask literally & figuratively, Daniels answered.

[Whole Truth]

I want to like this close game but it would be hard to pretend the Spurs didn't choke. They got 4 offensive boards in one possession & bricked all their open looks. They missed FT's & bunnies ...

Like that Green is riding the hot hand though ..

[Whole Truth]

Atlanta beat the Suns 129 - 120

Young, 42 mins, was the leading scorer with 32 but was a -1

Capela 11 / 10, was a starter high -14 in 20 minutes

Murray, 39 mins, was an abysmal 1-8 from 3 but a starter high +10. (22 / 8 / 5)

Okongwu off the bench got more minutes than Capela because he was the defensive catalyst, +23 in 27 mins, 9 pt win. (15 / 7 '/ 1 / 2) 7-8 from the field, 1-1 from 3. As I've been saying in my trade proposals. Okongwu's switch ability, perimeter defense & ability to hit an open 3, with potential for improvement, not factoring his team friendly contract & control, is a better trade target than Allen.

Not to replace Jonas post play or Nance either but to add his 27 mins as a compliment, small ball 5 option. Which will give this team it's versatility in matchups & style of play.

- Jonas post offense, physicality to wear & dominate certain matchups.
- Nance as a small ball option, has better 3pt range as of now if the team needs to stretch the floor.
- Okongwu is a better perimeter defender & rebounder than Nance, with potential for range.

39m C/PF rotation around ZIon. 4m less than CJ's 35m max for 3 quality rotation players where this team will get it's versatility in play come PO's.

Jonas C (18m), Okongwu backup C (8m), Nance backup PF/C (11m) > Allen C (20m), Nance backup PF/C (11m)

A 6m difference for more versatility & quality depth at the PF/C rotation. Not factoring Allen only has 2yrs control to Okongwu's team friendly with 5yrs control & Nance's ability to stay healthy.

[Whole Truth]

I knew Daniels impacted the game last night but I hadn't checked the box score to realize he was +20 in the 1pt win.

After last night, the 2 efficient big men who struggle to defend in space -

Zion + Daniels ball pressure = (452mins) +12.2
Jonas + Daniels ball pressure = (539mins) +6.7

ZIon + CJ spacing = (672mins) +0.6
Jonas + CJ spacing = (748min) +2.1

What these numbers playing 4 on 5 offensively with Daniels shows is that Ball pressure is a greater need than rim protection & or spacing where Zion is concerned. If your intent is to build around Zion, the **** can you have Daniels in trade where he's the best pairing with Zion, undeveloped ? lol. This not even factoring the cost & control factor of a team facing cap issues.

Jonas court value lost to expiring value, Daniels cheap complimentary ball pressure lost for rim protection & you can toss in a pick for fun. You got lucky Cavs decided to stick with Allen but wouldn't it be fun to be stuck having to extend all 3 of Allen, BI & CJ in 2yrs with nothing to show for it.

Okongwu > Allen, from fit to cap.

Guess what Okongwu can do better than Allen besides hit an open 3 ? close out, switch & pressure the ball

[Whole Truth]

Murray was +4, 0-6 from 3 for a bad shooting night from range in another win. 19 / 5 / 7 on poor efficiency. His assist rate is climbing but the 3pt % has dipped to 36% over the last 2.

Okongwu - 22 / 16 / 2 in 36 mins, team high +9 off the bench. 8-12 shooting, (2-4) from 3.

[Whole Truth]

What's funny, is in trying to showcase Murray & Okongwu for possible trade, Atlanta has won their last 4 games. Which include LA, Suns & GS. Okongwu has gone from 20 mins 4 FGA's (11 & 4) after thought, to putting up (22 & 16) in 35 mins, difference maker.

[Whole Truth]

I like the Mikal Bridges rumored target better than Murray but were talking cost & availability.

It would be hard to beat a Houston rebuilding offer of Green & their own picks back for draft control. So NO's might be offering up someone like BI for the better fitting piece.

It would add the 2nd defender to Herb to help balance the team defensively, it would address BI's large extension & It would add another 3pt shooter or should I say willing 3pt shooter to Herb & CJ.

Jonas / Claxton - Nance
Zion / Nance
Bridges / Murphy
Herb / Hawkins - Jose
CJ / Daniels - Jose

If this is at all possible I'd try & flip Claxton for Okongwu's contract & control.

[Whole Truth]

Nets aren't going anywhere anytime soon & Bridges is set to expire in 25/26. They'd be smart to deal him for a young controlled player & picks before he loses that extra yr of control.

BI for Bridges just means they'll need to spend more money to extend. Pels would have to find a 3rd team that would give a good young player they can attach value to in order to entice.

My assumption with the Houston pick package is they're not high on Green as the centre piece. It would be hard to beat the value of regaining control of their draft if they decide to pivot into a rebuild by trading Bridges before he expires. Except Houston is not going to give the young player Nets would want.

I like where your head is at with this target.

[Whole Truth]

Too bad the game wasn't closer. Wanted to see BI pick up the 50 piece. Great game from him

This is twice now with the game a bit out of reach he started taking 3's with confidence, last game like this I think it was the Utah blow out he went 7-7 if my memory serves me correct. Both times most his attempts came with the game already out of reach. "A cushion to alleviate pressure of a miss".

Which means there's a lack of confidence & reluctance in close games. "A fear that he might miss when they need a bucket".

Basketball is a game of confidence. This is why the best shooters have short memories, they always feel, think the next one is going in. Notice Steph's personality, he's cocky AF.

Twice now with both games out of reach, BI was actually hunting the 3pt shot having fun, as it wasn't a pressure situation., he was fire with the game already out of reach. In games like this, he shows, he's one of the better 3pt shooters on the team with his length. Could you imagine if BI started a game like this where he's actively hunting his 3pt shot.. It would be pretty hard to wall off Zion, with Herb also near 40% on 3 APG & CJ shooting better than 45 on 9 APG volume.

BI has to get over that mental block. Problem is, as I've been talking about offensive efficiency playing into defensive efficiency... there's a "mental pressure" to score when you're having trouble getting stops & the other team is scoring efficiently. "what if I miss".

If he would play with this confidence from start to finish it will do more than just open up his own game. Starting to understand his "preference" for the mid range...

He just needs to get comfortable with the idea..

[Whole Truth]

Okongwu 23, recently signed to 4yrs/61m extension -

8m 2023/24
14m 2024/25
15m 2025/26
16m 2026/27
16m 2027/28
UFA 2028/29

The following stats for Okongwu are in part from my boy Jam on the Hawks board.

Shooting % by shot

Layups (54-89) 60.7%
Hook shot (10-20) 50%
Tip shot (11-19) 57.9%
Dunks (41-47) 87.2%
Alleys (29-31) 93.5%

(130 -179), at the rim 72.6% --------------------- Allen 176-240 at the rim 73.3%
(37-68), 3-10' 54% -------------------- Allen 74-132 3-10' 56%
3pt shot (20-58) 34.5% (13-36) 36% on the road ---------------------- Allen (0-1) 0%

3rd in roll efficiency out of PNR 1.40 - 85 possessions, JV is currently 9th 1.342 - 114 possessions. Only Turner is higher as a roll man than JV with more than 100 possessions.

4th in blocks 2.8 - 100 possessions

Contested 38.7% at the rim when on court, opponents shot 48.4%

99th% post defense

Okongwu has led the Hawks the last 3 seasons in 4th Q net rating. This season he leads the Hawks again with a +6.4.

In their last 4 matchups Okongwu has held Giannis to 20pts on (6-18) shooting, 2 TO's with 3 blocked shots.

My favorite was Jam pointing out Bam was averaging 8.9 & 2.2 when Heat replaced Whiteside with him in 2018/19.

Trade targets -

Okongwu 23yrs / Allen 26 yrs
Okongwu 15m / Allen 20m
Okongwu 4yrs control / Allen 2yrs control
Okongwu 34% from 3 / Allen 0%
Okongwu > perimeter switch defender / Allen > rim protector

The only thing Allen has on Okongwu 6'8", is height but it's the tradeoff for Okongwu's speed, mobility & switch ability.

Trade cost = Okongwu bench player ready to start, Allen former Allstar starter

[Whole Truth]

Raptors have a rumor on their board that Bucks might trade - Portis & Connaughton, 35th pick for Brown.

On the Bucks board a construction worker claims Portis halted all work on his build.


Bucks trade - (Connaughton, Portis, 35) for (Brown)

Raptors trade - (Brown) for (Hunter, Bucks 35)

Atlanta trade - (Hunter, Murray, Okongwu) for (CJ, Portis, Connaughton, NO's 24, Bucks 27)

NO's trade - (CJ, NO's 24, NO's 27) for (Murray, Okongwu)