New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024)

Moderators: penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063

DraymondGold
Senior
Posts: 590
And1: 763
Joined: May 19, 2022

New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#1 » by DraymondGold » Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:47 pm

~New Career RAPM~

I just saw this post (https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/1aextmx/new_lifetime_rapm_rankings_1997_includes_playoffs/), which mentioned Engelmann has shared some new career RAPM! :D

Full data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bg8KxzagN7D0O16EmUO9_kCyXwthEUjKywlrWPQUQt8/edit#gid=0

OG tweet:
Read on Twitter


RAPM is RS + PS
"Please note
- the possession parser hasn't yet been fully debugged
- 'season' is the only adjustment
- it's missing rubber-band and age adjustments, both of which would heavily infl. e.g. Jordan's rating"
This is especially exciting, since neither of the traditional RAPM sources (Goldstein or Engelmann) have published RAPM for the recent seasons.

Some notable ranks in Total RAPM:
Spoiler:
1. Nikola Jokic +9.7
2. LeBron James +9.3
3. Chris Paul +9
4. Kevin Garnett +8.6
5. Draymond Green +8.3
6. Paul George +8
7. Jayson Tatum +7.9
8. Stephen Curry +7.8
9. Tim Duncan +7.7
10. Joel Embiid +7.6
11. Manu Ginobili +7.5
12. John Stockton +7.5
13. Shaquille O'Neal +7.2
14. Michael Jordan +7.1
15. Damian Lillard +7
16. Kevin Durant +6.9
17. Dirk Nowitzki +6.9
18. Jrue Holiday +6.6
19. Kawhi Leonard +6.5
20. Jeff Hornacek +6.4
21. James Harden +6.3
...
25. Jimmy Butler +5.8
...
29. Rudy Gobert +5.8
...
33. Alex Caruso +5.5
34. Ja Morant +5.5
...
36. Karl-Anthony Towns +5.5
37. Dikembe Mutombo +5.5
38. Giannis Antetokounmpo +5.4
...
40. Alonzo Mourning +5.4
41. David Robinson +5.4
42. Reggie Miller +5.3
...
47. Steve Nash +5.2
...
52. Jason Kidd +5.0
...
60. Ben Wallace +4.8
...
64. Ray Allen +4.6
...
87. Anthony Davis +4.3
...
89. Tracy McGrady +4.2
...
95. Luka Doncic +4.1
...
106. Kyrie Irving +3.9
107. Dwyane Wade +3.9
...
112. Kobe Bryant +3.8
...
134. Dwight Howard + 3.5
...
154. Charles Barkley +3.2
...
167. Scottie Pippen +3.1
...
224. Karl Malone +2.6
...
257. Klay Thompson +2.4
...
428. Patrick Ewing +1.6
429. Hakeem Olajuwon +1.6

Some notable ranks in Offensive RAPM:
Spoiler:
1. Nikola Jokic +7.5
2. Stephen Curry +7.3
3. Damian Lillard +7.3
4. James Harden +6.6
5. LeBron James +6.5
6. Karl-Anthony Towns +6.2
7. Chris Paul +5.9
8. Kevin Durant +5.7
9. Dirk Nowitzki +5.6
10. Trae Young +5.5
11. John Stockton +5.3
12. Michael Jordan +5.2
13. Jayson Tatum +5.1
14. Steve Nash +5.1
15. Ray Allen +5
16. Devin Booker +5
17. Ja Morant +4.9
18. Kyrie Irving +4.9
19. Manu Ginobili +4.8
20. Luka Doncic +4.8
21. Kobe Bryant +4.8
22. Kawhi Leonard +4.7
23. Shaquille O'Neal +4.6
...
27. Reggie Miller +4.5
...
36 Tracy McGrady +4.2
37. Charles Barkley +4.1
38. Jrue Holiday +4.0
...
42. Dwyane Wade +3.8
...
50. Jimmy Butler +3.6
...
62. Paul George +3.4
...
83. Klay Thompson +3.2
...
86. Draymond Green +3.1
...
98. Joel Embiid +3.0
99. Giannis Antetokounmpo +3.0
...
139. Tim Duncan +2.6
...
173. Kevin Garnett +2.3
...
221. Anthony Davis +2.0

Some notable ranks in Defensive RAPM:
Spoiler:
1. Kevin Garnett -6.3
2. Dikembe Mutombo -6
3. Alex Caruso -5.4
4. Alonzo Mourning -5.4
5. Draymond Green -5.2
6. Tim Duncan -5.1
7. Rudy Gobert -5.1
8. Shawn Bradley -5.1
9. Ben Wallace -5
10. Paul George -4.6
11. Joel Embiid -4.6
12. Nene -4.5
13. David Robinson -4.4
14. Arvydas Sabonis -4.4
15. Andrew Bogut -4.4
16. Bo Outlaw -4.3
17. Rasheed Wallace -4.2
18. Jason Collins -4.2
19. Vlade Divac -4
20. Immanuel Quickley -3.9
21. Andre Roberson -3.8
22. Tony Allen -3.8
...
25. Yao Ming -3.6
26. Andre Iguodala -3.5
...
36. Chris Paul -3.1
...
40. Metta World Peace -3.1
...
54. Bam Adebayo -2.9
...
58. LeBron James -2.8
59. Jayson Tatum -2.8
...
65. Manu Ginobili -2.7
...
69. Patrick Ewing -2.7
70. Hakeem Olajuwon -2.7
...
72. Shaquille O'Neal -2.6
73. Jrue Holiday -2.6
74. Marc Gasol -2.6
...
83. Dwight Howard -2.5
...
87. Matisse Thybulle -2.5
88. Giannis Antetokounmpo -2.4
...
97. Anthony Davis -2.3
...
108. Nikola Jokic -2.2
109. John Stockton
...
111. Jimmy Butler -2.2
...
113. Jason Kidd -2.2
...
135. Andrei Kirilenko -2.0
...
140. Marcus Smart -2.0
...
159. Michael Jordan -1.9
...
168. Jaren Jackson Jr. -1.9
...
173. Kawhi Leonard -1.8
...
175. Chris Bosh -1.8
176. Jarrett Allen -1.8
...
286. Dirk Nowitzki
...
320. Kevin Durant -1.2
...
325. Scottie Pippen -1.2
...
1036. Dwyane Wade -0.1
...
2223. Kobe Bryant +1.0

Reminders: these are career RAPM numbers, so players with a different percentage of non-prime years will affect these rankings greatly. Players who are mid-prime now (no post-prime years yet) might be overrated, players who are missing prime years before 1997 might be underrated. This also treats the player as a single flat value over their career, so information on season to season changes (e.g. if a player is much better in prime, much worse in non-prime years) gets averaged out.

Some Random Observations:
-Jokic #1 makes some sense. Hyper-valuable player with strong peak, #1 in offense, somewhat surprisingly high defense, and no post-peak seasons to drag his average down.

-LeBron #2 also makes sense given how strong his impact is. GOAT-tier stuff from him considering how long he's been doing it. Offensively, he's just in the Top 5.

Offensive highlights:
-Curry 8th overall and 2nd offensively (just behind Jokic) is also pretty impressive, consistent with him being GOAT level offensively considering how many more non-peak years he has than Jokic.
-Chris Paul is 3rd overall and 7th offensively, continues to be loved by impact metrics.
-James Harden 4th offensively and 21st overall, solid.
-KAT at 6th offensively is a bit surprising.
-Durant 8th offensively but 16th overall, and Dirk just behind at 9th offensively and 17th overall.
-Nash at #14th offensively and #47th overall, seems a bit low compared to his reputation here.

Defensive highlights:
-Garnett's defense is #1, enough to boost him to #4 overall. Impact metrics alway love him, but seeing his defense that far above the crowd even with his non-prime years is a bit new for me. His offense is proportionally lower at #173, keeping him from looking best overall in this new stat.
-Old Mutombo is #2 defensively, with some separation after. I wonder if I've been underrating his defense.
-Caruso a bit surprising at #3 defensively, and Paul George at number 10 defensively... the top defenders are obviously dominated by big men, but a few perimeter players do sneak in. Andre Roberson, Tony Allen, and Iguodala are some of the other top perimeter defenders, though they're a tier down between #20–#30. Some of these players are lower-minute defensive specialists, but Paul George specifically is pretty high minutes player. I wonder if his defensive reputation compared to the other recent defensive wings underrates him.
-Draymond Green (5th overall, 5th defensively), continues to be loved by impact metrics.
-Duncan is 6th defensively and 9th overall. Great stuff. A bit below Garnett (as often is the case in impact metrics), but unlike some of the guys I mention below, both Garnett and Duncan don't seem to have their career value cratered that much by their post-prime years (note for DocMJ: Manu is 11th overall, so he's right behind Duncan, and supports your argument that he's underrated)
-Gobert, Ben Wallace, and old Robinson are all also in the top 15, as expected

-Some surprisingly lower ranks:
-Kawhi Leonard at #19 overall and #22 offensively is still pretty good, but a defensive rank of 173 is way lower than his reputation.
-Giannis Antetokounmpo at 38th overall is definitely lower than expected, particularly since his impact metrics in 19/20 were so good and we're also mid peak/prime for him too. Both his defense and offense are out of the top 50.
-Anthony Davis and Luka Doncic at 88th and 95th overall are also a bit low. Doncic's reputation of having worse plus/minus numbers continues.
-Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant are out of the top 100 overall. Wow! Kobe's 22nd offensively, right in line with some of the other Top 20 overall players, Wade's a bit worse at 42nd offensively. It's their defense that's disappointing... Wade's neutral and Kobe's a negative defender. One wonders how much non-prime years are lowering their ranking here. Kobe's reputation as having slightly worse impact metrics continues. For the Kobe fans: Kobe has an unusual number of non-prime games in his career (e.g. 266 RS games pre-age 22 when Wade was drafted, 325 RS games at age 32+ in 2011–2016, 50 + 22 PS games in those age ranges, for 663 total. For comparison, Wade has 0 games pre-age 22, 389 games after age 32+ in 2014–2019 RS, 45 PS games in those age ranges, for 434 total. Based on this, and considering their overall rank is right near each other, there is an argument that Kobe might end up looking better than Wade in say ~10 year prime RAPM, though neither are probably valuable enough in RAPM to crack the top tier based on how low their total career is).

Older players: These are the guys with a major portion of their career missing (pre-1997).
-Jordan 14th overall, and 12th offensively is GOAT-tier stuff, considering ~40% of his sample comes from his Wizards years at age 38–39, and there were nagging injuries in the 1998 regular season. His defense is 159, which is definitely isn't high, but at the same time it's right around the level of Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kawhi, Jarrett Allen, so not exactly terrible.
-Shaq 13 overall is a touch town from the other modern bigs in Duncan/Garnett, but we're missing 93–96 which includes several prime years. His offense at #23 is strong but not quite as high as expected, but his defense is better than his reputation at 72.
-Old Stockton (12 overall) >> Old Malone (224 overall)
-Old Ewing and old Hakeem are disappointing, both out of the Top 400 overall (69th/70th defensively), at least compared to old Mutombo and Mourning and Barkley and Robinson.

Other Current players: these are some other guys for whom we only have young/prime seasons. We might expect their ranks to drop over time if they're mid-peak now and haven't had any post-prime seasons to drag them down.
-Tatum at 7th overall is obviously great, propped up by being Top 15 offensively
-Embiid 10th overall is also great. He seems much more valuable defensively.
User avatar
eminence
RealGM
Posts: 16,846
And1: 11,683
Joined: Mar 07, 2015

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#2 » by eminence » Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:01 pm

Aww, he didn't include his CIs this go around :(
I bought a boat.
KembaWalker
RealGM
Posts: 11,919
And1: 13,545
Joined: Dec 22, 2011
 

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#3 » by KembaWalker » Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:33 pm

Michael Kidd Gilchrist was hella underrated
Image
User avatar
Ryoga Hibiki
RealGM
Posts: 12,411
And1: 7,625
Joined: Nov 14, 2001
Location: Warszawa now, but from Northern Italy

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#4 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:45 pm

Old stockton was a monster per minute, actually.
Слава Украине!
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,021
And1: 21,978
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#5 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:56 pm

Always good to see this data!
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
clearlynotjesse
Sophomore
Posts: 180
And1: 141
Joined: Sep 09, 2012

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#6 » by clearlynotjesse » Wed Jan 31, 2024 11:19 pm

I'm a Nash spin master so it's actually a positive that he still ranks top 50 despite being not that good for like 40% of his career.
10 nash/09 daniels
05 ginobili
06 battier/12 iguodala
08 kg/11 dirk
07 duncan
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,021
And1: 21,978
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#7 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 1, 2024 5:47 am

DraymondGold wrote:Some Random Observations:
-Jokic #1 makes some sense. Hyper-valuable player with strong peak, #1 in offense, somewhat surprisingly high defense, and no post-peak seasons to drag his average down.

-LeBron #2 also makes sense given how strong his impact is. GOAT-tier stuff from him considering how long he's been doing it. Offensively, he's just in the Top 5.


So taking this section by section:

-While it's true that we haven't seen the tail end of Jokic's career and this may drag him down, it's important to remember that in general older players fair better than younger players in +/-. The reason why Jokic looks so good here is because he was amazingly impactful right from the jump to a degree we haven't seen from any other player in the +/- era.

-LeBron is certainly the gold standard.

DraymondGold wrote:Offensive highlights:
-Curry 8th overall and 2nd offensively (just behind Jokic) is also pretty impressive, consistent with him being GOAT level offensively considering how many more non-peak years he has than Jokic.
-Chris Paul is 3rd overall and 7th offensively, continues to be loved by impact metrics.
-James Harden 4th offensively and 21st overall, solid.
-KAT at 6th offensively is a bit surprising.
-Durant 8th offensively but 16th overall, and Dirk just behind at 9th offensively and 17th overall.
-Nash at #14th offensively and #47th overall, seems a bit low compared to his reputation here.


-Paul has a similar thing going with Jokic where they excel at adding impact to any given possession with smart decisions.

-KAT I think is likely to be now, and continue to be, on a downward trajectory in ORAPM and probably overall RAPM too.

- Main thing with Nash is that he wasn't used maximally for much of his career. His offensive RAPM in the Phoenix years is outlier.
- Curry, Durant, Harden, as you say, solid.

DraymondGold wrote:Defensive highlights:
-Garnett's defense is #1, enough to boost him to #4 overall. Impact metrics alway love him, but seeing his defense that far above the crowd even with his non-prime years is a bit new for me. His offense is proportionally lower at #173, keeping him from looking best overall in this new stat.
-Old Mutombo is #2 defensively, with some separation after. I wonder if I've been underrating his defense.
-Caruso a bit surprising at #3 defensively, and Paul George at number 10 defensively... the top defenders are obviously dominated by big men, but a few perimeter players do sneak in. Andre Roberson, Tony Allen, and Iguodala are some of the other top perimeter defenders, though they're a tier down between #20–#30. Some of these players are lower-minute defensive specialists, but Paul George specifically is pretty high minutes player. I wonder if his defensive reputation compared to the other recent defensive wings underrates him.
-Draymond Green (5th overall, 5th defensively), continues to be loved by impact metrics.
-Duncan is 6th defensively and 9th overall. Great stuff. A bit below Garnett (as often is the case in impact metrics), but unlike some of the guys I mention below, both Garnett and Duncan don't seem to have their career value cratered that much by their post-prime years (note for DocMJ: Manu is 11th overall, so he's right behind Duncan, and supports your argument that he's underrated)
-Gobert, Ben Wallace, and old Robinson are all also in the top 15, as expected


-The thing about Garnett and "non-prime years" that's so scarry is that these is his DRAPM without him being fully utilized ever in his prime. Had the NBA removed illegal defense sooner and a team decided to play Thibs-style from the beginning, he would tower over his contemporaries all the more. Truly a player ahead of his time that the basketball world didn't know what to do with despite recognizing his revolutionary nature.

-Mutombo warrants the shout out, but I feel a need to also shoutout his fellow Hoya Zo who ranks nearly as high here. It's crazy that these guys were on a college team together.

-With Caruso the thing that drives me nuts as an analyst is us not seeing him for more minutes. Is he incapable of playing more with this impact...or not?

-George and the other non-bigs. Yeah, I do think we tend to overstate how big the gap is between defensive bigs and mediums in the 3-point age. Obviously you'd always love your arms to stretch to be as long as a bigs, but team defenses need serious horizontal game in the modern NBA.

-Yup, Draymond's a stud.
-Duncan looks great for a non-Garnett! :)

-I appreciate the Manu shout out. I do want to emphasize that the thing I was always bolder on was not the idea that Ginobili was more valuable than Duncan...but that his offense was more valuable than Duncan's. This might seem like a petty thing to emphasize, but it's significant because of the way people tend to slot people in as #1's, #2's, etc. No, it's not a given that the Spurs would have been better had they based their offense around Ginoblii more than Duncan, we simply know that Ginobili was more valuable on offense than Duncan in an offense catering to Duncan. And that's no small thing.

-Gobert, Ben, Robinson, yup, solid.

DraymondGold wrote:-Some surprisingly lower ranks:
-Kawhi Leonard at #19 overall and #22 offensively is still pretty good, but a defensive rank of 173 is way lower than his reputation.
-Giannis Antetokounmpo at 38th overall is definitely lower than expected, particularly since his impact metrics in 19/20 were so good and we're also mid peak/prime for him too. Both his defense and offense are out of the top 50.
-Anthony Davis and Luka Doncic at 88th and 95th overall are also a bit low. Doncic's reputation of having worse plus/minus numbers continues.
-Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant are out of the top 100 overall. Wow! Kobe's 22nd offensively, right in line with some of the other Top 20 overall players, Wade's a bit worse at 42nd offensively. It's their defense that's disappointing... Wade's neutral and Kobe's a negative defender. One wonders how much non-prime years are lowering their ranking here. Kobe's reputation as having slightly worse impact metrics continues. For the Kobe fans: Kobe has an unusual number of non-prime games in his career (e.g. 266 RS games pre-age 22 when Wade was drafted, 325 RS games at age 32+ in 2011–2016, 50 + 22 PS games in those age ranges, for 663 total. For comparison, Wade has 0 games pre-age 22, 389 games after age 32+ in 2014–2019 RS, 45 PS games in those age ranges, for 434 total. Based on this, and considering their overall rank is right near each other, there is an argument that Kobe might end up looking better than Wade in say ~10 year prime RAPM, though neither are probably valuable enough in RAPM to crack the top tier based on how low their total career is).


-The way I tend to think about Kawhi, is that he's an extreme example of an individual sportsman playing a team game. Kawhi's combination of iso scoring and man defense might be the greatest we've ever seen, but when it comes to the team dynamics, he's limited, and surprisingly, this might actually be a bigger limitation on defense than on offense. Because on offense, his individual threat with the ball warps the defense to make team play easier. By contrast, since the offense dictates play, they can effectively quarantine the dude.

-Yeah, Giannis is weird in this family of stats. I don't know if I've ever seen a player become THE dominant player in the league both by consensus and +/- stats, and then really just lose the latter while not becoming a fundamentally worse player, and in fact further rounding out his game. Holistically, I tend to cut Giannis slack here because he did enough to prove his capabilities, and I don't think he's failed his team by changing his approach, but I do tend to get in fights when it comes to MVP debates nowadays when people just want to ignore the fact the data isn't what it used to be.

-AD's interesting. I think the fundamental issue here is that the way AD really stands out is the way he seems to be a match up nightmare to so many teams come playoff time. You can argue that's a fluke, but I don't actually think it is. I think there's something about playing in these series that lets AD really focus his talents.

-Doncic, honestly, this is going to sound damning with feint praise, but making the Top 100 on this list, and doing so having to rely on your own shoulders as the foundation for your team's context, is a pretty significant accomplishment by general standards. Doing so while still being under 25 in a sport where heady players can peak at 30+? All the more so.

-Wade & Kobe. It's clear that the nastiest thing haunting these guys is their non-prime, and so whatever happened in that time, their prime performance would definitely be higher. It's worth noting how much their non-prime hurts them compared to someone like Duncan, but we should acknowledge that's a phenomenon distinct from the level of prime.

DraymondGold wrote:Older players: These are the guys with a major portion of their career missing (pre-1997).
-Jordan 14th overall, and 12th offensively is GOAT-tier stuff, considering ~40% of his sample comes from his Wizards years at age 38–39, and there were nagging injuries in the 1998 regular season. His defense is 159, which is definitely isn't high, but at the same time it's right around the level of Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kawhi, Jarrett Allen, so not exactly terrible.
-Shaq 13 overall is a touch town from the other modern bigs in Duncan/Garnett, but we're missing 93–96 which includes several prime years. His offense at #23 is strong but not quite as high as expected, but his defense is better than his reputation at 72.
-Old Stockton (12 overall) >> Old Malone (224 overall)
-Old Ewing and old Hakeem are disappointing, both out of the Top 400 overall (69th/70th defensively), at least compared to old Mutombo and Mourning and Barkley and Robinson.


-Jordan's +/- data in the 2nd 3-peat really, really impress me because I always felt that those years were far from his very best. I figured it likely that Jordan had massive +/- numbers at his best, but I kinda thought we'd see something lesser in the last couple years there. Nope, resolute in his domination that one. (Sigh, and other things that really held him back in Washington.)

-Shaq's earlier years are a very interesting thing to consider because of teammates Penny & Grant. Their data doesn't look that great here, but they would look a lot different if we were regressing on those same years. I'm not sure if Shaq's numbers here would see a decisive shift upward.

-Re: O(S >>M) True if focused on effective value-add, but I think it's worth noting how much more the team was relying on the M rather than the S.

-Old 1984/1985 Draft guys who played for a Really Long Time look worse than Guys Drafted Later or Retiring Sooner. I'm afraid this is exactly what I'd expect given that we're starting with data from 1997.

DraymondGold wrote:Other Current players: these are some other guys for whom we only have young/prime seasons. We might expect their ranks to drop over time if they're mid-peak now and haven't had any post-prime seasons to drag them down.
-Tatum at 7th overall is obviously great, propped up by being Top 15 offensively
-Embiid 10th overall is also great. He seems much more valuable defensively.


-So first I'll say that Embiid looking that great just seems right. The man's a monster out there.

-Tatum's placement though calls attention to something I feel like the analytical world hasn't really grappled with like it needs to with his career. That being with the exception of Jokic, Tatum might be the guy who jumped in with impact faster than anyone else in recent generations, and he's maintained elite standing as a matter of course with remarkable consistency. And this has happened while seeming to convince absolutely no one - and not me either - that he's truly a top tier MVP-type player. I think we've reached a point where we can't dismiss what we see as noise. Either there's something we're missing about Tatum, or there's something RAPM is missing about him (or both, of course), and wherever there's a gap in what's being accounted for, there's something for us to learn.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,021
And1: 21,978
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#8 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 1, 2024 6:10 am

Looking at the list, some salient data points to me:

-Look at Derrick White at 22. I think this guy is still quite underrated by most.

-Bow down to the Baron Davis at 26. Not a surprise if you've looked at this sort of data before, but the man was more effective than we realized at the time.

-And how 'bout Franz Wagner coming in at #27 with so few miles on his tires?

-Shout out Vlade Divac coming in at the 30th spot. I believe the only guys above him who came into the league as early as him are Jordan and the Jazzguardzz. Dude really seemed to have his game on lock.

-Immanuel Quickley at #35. Yup, we're really going to learn something about this dude, and this type of dude, in Toronto.

-And here's to Nene at #45. Candidate for greatest non-all-star career now that Conley's no longer eligible.

-It's both problematic and exhiliarating that we can actually see rookies in here in the middle of their rookie year. We should take this part of the data with a HUGE grain of salt, but it's fun to look at:

77. Chet Holmgren 3.5 -1.0 4.4
246. Dereck Lively 1.9 -0.6 2.5
688. Cason Wallace 0.6 -0.1 0.7
993. Victor Wembanyama -0.7 -0.9 0.2

(Note that most rookies are going to be negative here, including Brandon Miller and my Bruin Jaquez.)
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Ol Roy
Junior
Posts: 450
And1: 543
Joined: Dec 03, 2023

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#9 » by Ol Roy » Thu Feb 1, 2024 6:36 am

A couple of weeks ago I came across an older site that had plus-minus leaders for the 90s. It was linked here on RealGM.

I can't seem to find it. Any ideas?
DatAsh
Senior
Posts: 627
And1: 356
Joined: Sep 25, 2015

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#10 » by DatAsh » Thu Feb 1, 2024 8:45 am

Thoughts:

Lebron and KG looking like beasts as usual

Jokic looking like the beast I think he is. Does this guy have GOAT potential?

So most of Jordan's data is 2nd 3 peat and Wizards era? Am I reading that right? Personally, I've got 2nd 3 peat Jordan around prime Kobe lvl, and Wizards Jordan as a clear negative player, but if this data puts those datasets that high up, it makes me wonder just how good his prime is, and makes me wonder if I should rank him higher. I don't think he has the longevity to go above Lebron, but if his prime/peak is good enough, maybe over Russell/Kareem.

John Stockton: why does this guy always come out looking better than Karl Malone in impact data? Could we all be underrating just how great of an offensivve/defensive force Stockton was?

*Edit: I hadn't read any of the responses before I posted, but Doctor MJ brings up a lot more for me to think about
User avatar
Ryoga Hibiki
RealGM
Posts: 12,411
And1: 7,625
Joined: Nov 14, 2001
Location: Warszawa now, but from Northern Italy

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#11 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Thu Feb 1, 2024 9:52 am

Just a methodology question, how does the regression account for different years?
How is a possession in year 1 LeBron affecting his RAPM in year 21? Is it "assuming" he's the same player or there's some correction?
And is this some aggregated total as if it was one unique interval or like the weighted average of each year's RAPM?
Слава Украине!
User avatar
eminence
RealGM
Posts: 16,846
And1: 11,683
Joined: Mar 07, 2015

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#12 » by eminence » Thu Feb 1, 2024 11:34 am

DatAsh wrote:Thoughts:

Lebron and KG looking like beasts as usual

Jokic looking like the beast I think he is. Does this guy have GOAT potential?

So most of Jordan's data is 2nd 3 peat and Wizards era? Am I reading that right? Personally, I've got 2nd 3 peat Jordan around prime Kobe lvl, and Wizards Jordan as a clear negative player, but if this data puts those datasets that high up, it makes me wonder just how good his prime is, and makes me wonder if I should rank him higher. I don't think he has the longevity to go above Lebron, but if his prime/peak is good enough, maybe over Russell/Kareem.

John Stockton: why does this guy always come out looking better than Karl Malone in impact data? Could we all be underrating just how great of an offensivve/defensive force Stockton was?

*Edit: I hadn't read any of the responses before I posted, but Doctor MJ brings up a lot more for me to think about


About 40% of MJ's data is Wizards era. I'd probably grade his Wizards years as a decent level starter, though a bit of a difficult fit in some team settings (though I also think he likely could've played differently in more competitive settings).

From what I've seen his prime data is absolutely comparable to anyone.
I bought a boat.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,021
And1: 21,978
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#13 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:12 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Just a methodology question, how does the regression account for different years?
How is a possession in year 1 LeBron affecting his RAPM in year 21? Is it "assuming" he's the same player or there's some correction?
And is this some aggregated total as if it was one unique interval or like the weighted average of each year's RAPM?


My understanding is that whenever you're talking about a direct RAPM, the player is assumed to be the same in all samples where he shows up.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
User avatar
yoyoboy
RealGM
Posts: 15,866
And1: 19,073
Joined: Jan 29, 2015
     

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#14 » by yoyoboy » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:21 pm

Can someone please steal Caruso from Chicago already? Further confirmation of what a special defender he is at his position.
User avatar
Ryoga Hibiki
RealGM
Posts: 12,411
And1: 7,625
Joined: Nov 14, 2001
Location: Warszawa now, but from Northern Italy

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#15 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:35 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Just a methodology question, how does the regression account for different years?
How is a possession in year 1 LeBron affecting his RAPM in year 21? Is it "assuming" he's the same player or there's some correction?
And is this some aggregated total as if it was one unique interval or like the weighted average of each year's RAPM?


My understanding is that whenever you're talking about a direct RAPM, the player is assumed to be the same in all samples where he shows up.


wow, wondering what kind of distortions you have there, then.
For instance, how impacted has been Kawhi for having played so many minutes with post prima Timmeh and Manu.
Probably there should be a way to weight the yearly or even 2/3 year NPI RAPM into the full career RAPM.
I will look into the outliers to see if there's any pattern.
A guy like Wade who played with 4 years with post Prime Shaq wasn't helped, likely, and he also had four years with LeBron.
Слава Украине!
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,020
And1: 3,913
Joined: Jun 22, 2022
 

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#16 » by OhayoKD » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:41 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Just a methodology question, how does the regression account for different years?
How is a possession in year 1 LeBron affecting his RAPM in year 21? Is it "assuming" he's the same player or there's some correction?
And is this some aggregated total as if it was one unique interval or like the weighted average of each year's RAPM?


My understanding is that whenever you're talking about a direct RAPM, the player is assumed to be the same in all samples where he shows up.


wow, wondering what kind of distortions you have there, then.
For instance, how impacted has been Kawhi for having played so many minutes with post prima Timmeh and Manu.
Probably there should be a way to weight the yearly or even 2/3 year NPI RAPM into the full career RAPM.
I will look into the outliers to see if there's any pattern.
A guy like Wade who played with 4 years with post Prime Shaq wasn't helped, likely, and he also had four years with LeBron.

As for as uneven length goes, Lebron, Duncan, and Kobe are probably the big sufferers here. CP3 and KG too to a degree(though lower poss. post-prime helps mitigate to an extent).

Jokic is probably one of the bigger if not biggest beneficiaries but to be fair, embid and giannis should also benefit from this to a degree and he looks better than both(first sourced rapm set i've seen favor him over embid actually)
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
Special_Puppy
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,869
And1: 2,585
Joined: Sep 23, 2023

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#17 » by Special_Puppy » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:41 pm

DatAsh wrote:Thoughts:


So most of Jordan's data is 2nd 3 peat and Wizards era? Am I reading that right? Personally, I've got 2nd 3 peat Jordan around prime Kobe lvl, and Wizards Jordan as a clear negative player, but if this data puts those datasets that high up, it makes me wonder just how good his prime is, and makes me wonder if I should rank him higher. I don't think he has the longevity to go above Lebron, but if his prime/peak is good enough, maybe over Russell/Kareem.



*Edit: I hadn't read any of the responses before I posted, but Doctor MJ brings up a lot more for me to think about


OP posted a version with just 97-98 (2 Year RAPM is pretty noisy so be cautious), but Jordan was the impactful player in that timeframe which is amazing considering that these were "post-prime" years technically (Jordan was 33-34 years old). Can't imagine how much of a beast Jordan was during the first three-peat https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GkOZSq7W14lUSC6fBsdM-W9yydOFSle6q4awUoJne0g/edit#gid=0
User avatar
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,094
And1: 5,931
Joined: Jul 24, 2022
 

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#18 » by AEnigma » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:53 pm

Broadly speaking, players are less impactful as they age, but it is not a hard rule, and I think it is erroneous for people to look at high values in the late 1990s and assume that they therefore must be even higher earlier. Especially when you are specifically looking at years where an equally old Karl Malone was similarly top of the heap.

John Stockton did not peak in 2001, nor would his 1997-2001 values demand that we treat him as some Magic level player in his actual prime. 2008-12 Garnett was not on balance a better player than 2005-07 Garnett even though I am pretty sure that is what pure RAPM suggests. RAPM is a reflection of lineups, league, role… and the 1996-98 Bulls were a bigger outlier relative to their league than the 1991-93 Bulls were.
User avatar
eminence
RealGM
Posts: 16,846
And1: 11,683
Joined: Mar 07, 2015

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#19 » by eminence » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:56 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Just a methodology question, how does the regression account for different years?
How is a possession in year 1 LeBron affecting his RAPM in year 21? Is it "assuming" he's the same player or there's some correction?
And is this some aggregated total as if it was one unique interval or like the weighted average of each year's RAPM?


My understanding is that whenever you're talking about a direct RAPM, the player is assumed to be the same in all samples where he shows up.


I believe JE's line "- 'season' is the only adjustment" implies there is some sort of factor between individual player seasons, but I do not have any idea how large of driver it'd be.
I bought a boat.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,021
And1: 21,978
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: New Engelmann Career RAPM (1997–2024) 

Post#20 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 1, 2024 4:59 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Just a methodology question, how does the regression account for different years?
How is a possession in year 1 LeBron affecting his RAPM in year 21? Is it "assuming" he's the same player or there's some correction?
And is this some aggregated total as if it was one unique interval or like the weighted average of each year's RAPM?


My understanding is that whenever you're talking about a direct RAPM, the player is assumed to be the same in all samples where he shows up.


wow, wondering what kind of distortions you have there, then.
For instance, how impacted has been Kawhi for having played so many minutes with post prima Timmeh and Manu.
Probably there should be a way to weight the yearly or even 2/3 year NPI RAPM into the full career RAPM.
I will look into the outliers to see if there's any pattern.
A guy like Wade who played with 4 years with post Prime Shaq wasn't helped, likely, and he also had four years with LeBron.


In general these are only larger scale issues of the same issues that RAPM has in smaller sample size.

A player on a back-to-back is often a better player the first night compared to the second, but trying to account for this makes the stat less intuitive.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!

Return to Player Comparisons