Pacers Pick Tracking (Update: #19 officially)

[Bruin]

What happened to Hali? If he was playing to end the game the result might have been different.

I think he’s on a minute restriction. His injury doesn’t seem fully healed but he’s playing through it cause of All NBA. Pacers playing with fire allowing this

[sbsat]

What happened to Hali? If he was playing to end the game the result might have been different.

Hes on a severe minute restriction

[CazOnReal]

Pick is still looking middle of the pack

[Bruin]

Read on Twitter

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[WuTang_CMB]

Read on Twitter

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team helping him out so he gets the super max

[Tha Cynic]

Should be interesting to see players heading into the playoffs injured so they can get their money

[Zeno]

Read on Twitter

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team helping him out so he gets the super max

I wonder if there is a trade off here. Like if he was out two more weeks would he not have a minutes restriction but because he insists on playing on the restriction, he might be on it for a month or longer. This is not productive for the Pacers at all. It kind of reminds me of when Kawhi tried to play 2nd halfs only last year.

[LoveMyRaps]

Sucks the Pacers won those games against the 76ers & Suns.

[SpezNc]

Pacers pick now 18

With Miami, Orlando and Dallas not far behind

On the other end, N-O, Phoenix, Sacramento just better than Pacers

Next game between Sacramento and Pacers is an important game to lose for the Pacers

[SpezNc]

Pick is still looking middle of the pack

It’s never going to change.

We need to look at it half full instead of half empty IMO.

The glass will never be full

Still I prefer pick 18 over pick 24

[Purple+Black]

Pick is still looking middle of the pack

It’s never going to change.

We need to look at it half full instead of half empty IMO.

The glass will never be full

Still I prefer pick 18 over pick 24

I’m quite content with the 18th pick, if we consolidate and move up to grab a prospect our scouts are very high on, great. If not, then 18 is a spot you can often land a solid contributor with upside if you’ve done your due diligence and things play out in your favour.

[SpezNc]

Pick is still looking middle of the pack

It’s never going to change.

We need to look at it half full instead of half empty IMO.

The glass will never be full

Still I prefer pick 18 over pick 24

I’m quite content with the 18th pick, if we consolidate and move up to grab a prospect our scouts are very high on, great. If not, then 18 is a spot you can often land a solid contributor with upside if you’ve done your due diligence and things play out in your favour.

I could not agree more

[WaltFrazier]

What happened to Hali? If he was playing to end the game the result might have been different.

Hes on a severe minute restriction

Sat out 4th quarter 2 straight games now

[JB7]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=6Hx3ZCSHlysihvhqh0K3hw

team helping him out so he gets the super max

Is it a minimum of 20 mins he needs to play each game for it to count as a game, under the 65 game requirement?

[mdenny]

Pick is still looking middle of the pack

It’s never going to change.

We need to look at it half full instead of half empty IMO.

The glass will never be full

Still I prefer pick 18 over pick 24

I’m quite content with the 18th pick, if we consolidate and move up to grab a prospect our scouts are very high on, great. If not, then 18 is a spot you can often land a solid contributor with upside if you’ve done your due diligence and things play out in your favour.

When you say "often"....is that just a cliche or thing to say?

Here are the 18th overalls from the past 15 years (while knowing the jury is still out on the most recent ones):

Jamie Jaques Jr
Dalen Terry
Tre mann
Josh Green
Goga bitadze
Lonnie walker Jr
Tj leaf
Henry Ellison
Sam dekker
Tyler ennis
Shane Larkin
Terrence Jones
Chris singleton
Eric Bledsoe
Ty Lawson

How many of these players constitute "solid contributors"?

I find whenever one simply "looks" at draft history....it becomes more and more clear how much a crap shoot it is. There is a subset of fans that LOVE undrafted prospects and then HATE THEM MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE after the player turns 26 lol.

[Bruin]

It’s never going to change.

We need to look at it half full instead of half empty IMO.

The glass will never be full

Still I prefer pick 18 over pick 24

I’m quite content with the 18th pick, if we consolidate and move up to grab a prospect our scouts are very high on, great. If not, then 18 is a spot you can often land a solid contributor with upside if you’ve done your due diligence and things play out in your favour.

When you say "often"....is that just a cliche or thing to say?

Here are the 18th overalls from the past 15 years (while knowing the jury is still out on the most recent ones):

Jamie Jaques Jr
Dalen Terry
Tre mann
Josh Green
Goga bitadze
Lonnie walker Jr
Tj leaf
Henry Ellison
Sam dekker
Tyler ennis
Shane Larkin
Terrence Jones
Chris singleton
Eric Bledsoe
Ty Lawson

How many of these players constitute "solid contributors"?

I find whenever one simply "looks" at draft history....it becomes more and more clear how much a crap shoot it is. There is a subset of fans that LOVE undrafted prospects and then HATE THEM MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE after the player turns 26 lol.

I assume he means within that range, not specifically at 18.

But tbf, 7 out of 15 of those guys you listed are solid contributors. I’m counting Tre Mann since he’s still just 23 and has shown flashes that he can become a solid player in this league. Jury still out for him though.

Without Mann, 6 of those guys are starter or 6th man (Josh Green) caliber. If you can get that 40% of the time from the 18th pick, I’d say that’s quite solid.

[mdenny]

I’m quite content with the 18th pick, if we consolidate and move up to grab a prospect our scouts are very high on, great. If not, then 18 is a spot you can often land a solid contributor with upside if you’ve done your due diligence and things play out in your favour.

When you say "often"....is that just a cliche or thing to say?

Here are the 18th overalls from the past 15 years (while knowing the jury is still out on the most recent ones):

Jamie Jaques Jr
Dalen Terry
Tre mann
Josh Green
Goga bitadze
Lonnie walker Jr
Tj leaf
Henry Ellison
Sam dekker
Tyler ennis
Shane Larkin
Terrence Jones
Chris singleton
Eric Bledsoe
Ty Lawson

How many of these players constitute "solid contributors"?

I find whenever one simply "looks" at draft history....it becomes more and more clear how much a crap shoot it is. There is a subset of fans that LOVE undrafted prospects and then HATE THEM MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE after the player turns 26 lol.

I assume he means within that range, not specifically at 18.

But tbf, 7 out of 15 of those guys you listed are solid contributors. I’m counting Tre Mann since he’s still just 23 and has shown flashes that he can become a solid player in this league. Jury still out for him though.

Without Mann, 6 of those guys are starter or 6th man (Josh Green) caliber. If you can get that 40% of the time from the 18th pick, I’d say that’s quite solid.

I guess it depends on what one means as "solid contributors".

If you peg 7 of them as solid....how many would you peg as average contributors?

I mean...if we're looking at it like a binary (solid contributor vs non-nba player) then that's a different conversation. If someone contributes to an nba at any level....does that qualify as "solid" for the purposes of this discussion?

[Purple+Black]

It’s never going to change.

We need to look at it half full instead of half empty IMO.

The glass will never be full

Still I prefer pick 18 over pick 24

I’m quite content with the 18th pick, if we consolidate and move up to grab a prospect our scouts are very high on, great. If not, then 18 is a spot you can often land a solid contributor with upside if you’ve done your due diligence and things play out in your favour.

When you say "often"....is that just a cliche or thing to say?

Here are the 18th overalls from the past 15 years (while knowing the jury is still out on the most recent ones):

Jamie Jaques Jr
Dalen Terry
Tre mann
Josh Green
Goga bitadze
Lonnie walker Jr
Tj leaf
Henry Ellison
Sam dekker
Tyler ennis
Shane Larkin
Terrence Jones
Chris singleton
Eric Bledsoe
Ty Lawson

How many of these players constitute "solid contributors"?

I find whenever one simply "looks" at draft history....it becomes more and more clear how much a crap shoot it is. There is a subset of fans that LOVE undrafted prospects and then HATE THEM MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE after the player turns 26 lol.

I would say there are a handful of ‘solid contributors’ on that list. But I was referring to that range — draft scouting has been one of our strengths so I’d like to think our odds of finding contributors there are slightly higher than average.

In the past we’ve found OG, Pascal, Norm, Fred, Delon even later than 18. I’d like to argue we have one of the best track records in the league (over the past 10 years) in terms of return on picks made between 20-45.

With those odds, I like our position at 18, 28, 31. It goes without saying that if we also landed a top 5 pick on top of that, we would be in an exponentially better situation.

[mdenny]

I’m quite content with the 18th pick, if we consolidate and move up to grab a prospect our scouts are very high on, great. If not, then 18 is a spot you can often land a solid contributor with upside if you’ve done your due diligence and things play out in your favour.

When you say "often"....is that just a cliche or thing to say?

Here are the 18th overalls from the past 15 years (while knowing the jury is still out on the most recent ones):

Jamie Jaques Jr
Dalen Terry
Tre mann
Josh Green
Goga bitadze
Lonnie walker Jr
Tj leaf
Henry Ellison
Sam dekker
Tyler ennis
Shane Larkin
Terrence Jones
Chris singleton
Eric Bledsoe
Ty Lawson

How many of these players constitute "solid contributors"?

I find whenever one simply "looks" at draft history....it becomes more and more clear how much a crap shoot it is. There is a subset of fans that LOVE undrafted prospects and then HATE THEM MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE after the player turns 26 lol.

I assume he means within that range, not specifically at 18.

But tbf, 7 out of 15 of those guys you listed are solid contributors. I’m counting Tre Mann since he’s still just 23 and has shown flashes that he can become a solid player in this league. Jury still out for him though.

Without Mann, 6 of those guys are starter or 6th man (Josh Green) caliber. If you can get that 40% of the time from the 18th pick, I’d say that’s quite solid.

I guess it depends on what one means as "solid contributors".

If you peg 7 of them as solid....how many would you peg as average contributors?

I mean...if we're looking at it like a binary (solid contributor vs non-nba player) then that's a different conversation. If someone contributes to an nba at any level....does that qualify as "solid" for the purposes of this discussion?

I've done this type of thing quite a bit. The range remains consistent. There's nothing particularly unlucky about the 18th overall selection. It comes down to this: the expected outcome of draft picks is significantly lower than the percieved value of fans who advocate for tanking/pick accumulative strategies. And part of that is due to some version of logical fallacy similar to those who are impulsive and superstitious.

There's also a great deal of conflation between "expected outcome" and "best possible outcome".

Ie "just look at all these star players that a team COULD'VE had with their 18th pick (*lists every great player ever drafted after 18) Which is not completely distinct from saying "well you COULD have won the jackpot if you played the slot machine one more time".

[MiamiSPX]

When the playoff starts, the Pacers will go into it with the worst D of all 16 teams (this can be safely said with 35 games to go....they have the 28th ranked D last time I checked last week).

When was the last time that team went really far? I am genuinely asking, I don't know.