NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread)

[-Luke-]

With Embiid out, wouldn't this be a good time to restart the poll without him as an option?

[iggymcfrack]

You have been using +/- as a loop for impact as by your logic +/- should be high for MVP level players, and Luka's +/- is low so he is not an MVP level player. You also kept ignoring other posters' response regarding his team situation - great sub for him and weak/injured front court. Regardless, the question is - has Luka been a MVP level player?
2023 Luka no playoff, he was voted #8; KG 2005 no playoff, he was voted #11;
Previous years he had #4, #5, and #6 voting and consecutive 1st team all-nba. That's what people agree on, he is an mvp level player but there were better choices given other players individual and team performance. Kobe 2006 was #4 and LeBron was #5 and #4 in 2007 and 2008.

Uh, that's not a loop.

Strong MVP candidates have strong +/- indicators.
Luka does not have strong +/- indicators.
Therefore Luka is not a strong MVP candidate.

You can disagree with the initial rule, but there's nothing circular about those statements.

RE: ignoring team situation. I guess I haven't been clear enough here:

Concerns about Doncic's teammates not playing are concerns that make sense from a raw +/- perspective, but regressed +/- stats like RAPM don't get thrown off by them. There's really no reason to think that these concerns are throwing Doncic's data over the last 6 seasons off to the point that they would explain what we're seeing.

I tend to use raw +/- data in my posts rather than fancier stuff because I think it's more clear to more people what the data means, but I wouldn't be using it if it told a drastically different story than the fancy stuff.

Re: "has Luka been a MVP level player? Some voters said yes so he must be." I mean, those are just people's opinions. If it makes it feel better they agree with you, cool, but I have no more qualms about saying they're off-base than I do of saying you are.

To be clear though: I'm not saying that you shouldn't be allowed to talk about Luka here in this thread. It's just that since y'all are bringing up Luka, I feel compelled to point out the reasons why I don't see him in the same breath as the people in serious contention.

I dont think he is the strong MVP candidate because of the team record as of now nor think he has a real chance this year, but to say he is not mvp level player is just hate... at the end of the day, +/- is one of the many, like ppg, TS%, bpm and should not be the island to hang on as the last line defense

Luka's been in the league 6 years on a team where the roster's been in as much turmoil as any team in the league. He's played with vastly different teammates from year to year. And the common denominator is that every year the team's not much better with him on the floor than the bench. The best on/off he had was +4.9 last year.

By contrast, the worst on/off Giannis has had over the last 7 years was +6.7. Jokic's worst over the last 5 years was +6.2. Embiid's career worst is +5.0. LeBron has 2 seasons under +7.0 in the last 20.

This isn't some random fluke from a small sample. Practically the whole team has turned over in the course of the last 5 years and Luka still manages to put up worse on/off numbers than every other top superstar year in and year out. It's a huge sample at this point.

He's still a very good player that helps the team a lot, especially in the playoffs, but he has some serious deficiencies in his regular season game. He doesn't try very hard on defense and he holds the ball more than any other player in the league so it makes it hard for other guys to do stuff and get in a rhythm. He's much better at making stats than he is at helping his team win. He's just not quite in the same class as the true MVP candidates. He's closer to guys like Brunson and Mitchell than he is to SGA and Jokic. No shame in that, it's still very good company, just not as good as his fanboys would like.

[Bob8]

Uh, that's not a loop.

Strong MVP candidates have strong +/- indicators.
Luka does not have strong +/- indicators.
Therefore Luka is not a strong MVP candidate.

You can disagree with the initial rule, but there's nothing circular about those statements.

RE: ignoring team situation. I guess I haven't been clear enough here:

Concerns about Doncic's teammates not playing are concerns that make sense from a raw +/- perspective, but regressed +/- stats like RAPM don't get thrown off by them. There's really no reason to think that these concerns are throwing Doncic's data over the last 6 seasons off to the point that they would explain what we're seeing.

I tend to use raw +/- data in my posts rather than fancier stuff because I think it's more clear to more people what the data means, but I wouldn't be using it if it told a drastically different story than the fancy stuff.

Re: "has Luka been a MVP level player? Some voters said yes so he must be." I mean, those are just people's opinions. If it makes it feel better they agree with you, cool, but I have no more qualms about saying they're off-base than I do of saying you are.

To be clear though: I'm not saying that you shouldn't be allowed to talk about Luka here in this thread. It's just that since y'all are bringing up Luka, I feel compelled to point out the reasons why I don't see him in the same breath as the people in serious contention.

I dont think he is the strong MVP candidate because of the team record as of now nor think he has a real chance this year, but to say he is not mvp level player is just hate... at the end of the day, +/- is one of the many, like ppg, TS%, bpm and should not be the island to hang on as the last line defense

Luka's been in the league 6 years on a team where the roster's been in as much turmoil as any team in the league. He's played with vastly different teammates from year to year. And the common denominator is that every year the team's not much better with him on the floor than the bench. The best on/off he had was +4.9 last year.

By contrast, the worst on/off Giannis has had over the last 7 years was +6.7. Jokic's worst over the last 5 years was +6.2. Embiid's career worst is +5.0. LeBron has 2 seasons under +7.0 in the last 20.

This isn't some random fluke from a small sample. Practically the whole team has turned over in the course of the last 5 years and Luka still manages to put up worse on/off numbers than every other top superstar year in and year out. It's a huge sample at this point.

He's still a very good player that helps the team a lot, especially in the playoffs, but he has some serious deficiencies in his regular season game. He doesn't try very hard on defense and he holds the ball more than any other player in the league so it makes it hard for other guys to do stuff and get in a rhythm. He's much better at making stats than he is at helping his team win. He's just not quite in the same class as the true MVP candidates. He's closer to guys like Brunson and Mitchell than he is to SGA and Jokic. No shame in that, it's still very good company, just not as good as his fanboys would like.

I will ask you again, why SGA needed to wait 5 years to have good +/- numbers? Maybe very good starting lineup helps?

Why Siakam became +/- monster overnight after lending in Indiana?

How many superstars have as backup players like Brunson or Kyrie? For example, who's Jokic replacement? How would Jokic's on/off numbers look, if his replacement was for example Sabonis?

Yes Mavs changed roster in those 6 years, but not for the better, because they have lost Brunson for nothing and consequently had to trade for Kyrie, losing the most important defensive player and got always injured star. This year the most frequent starting lineup is, Luka/Green/DJJ/Grant/Lively. 3 normally bench players and a rookie. Please compare that to Bucks, Denver or Thunder. Do you really believe Giannis, SGA or Jokic could make this Mavs as contenders?

Who put Luka 4x in a row in first All Nba team? His fanboys? I'm sure we should trust your great analytical genius more. Oh wait, I don't see any kind of argument except ruling all +/-.

[1993Playoffs]

When I think of Luka (who is an incredible talent) I always go back to the Kobe quote when talking about Harden in 2019?

“You can’t win playing that way.”

That applies to Luka as well…

[Bob8]

When I think of Luka (who is an incredible talent) I always go back to the Kobe quote when talking about Harden in 2019?

“You can’t win playing that way.”

That applies to Luka as well…

With a small difference, Luka unlike Harden plays even better in playoffs. I remember how people were taking about MJ in early years, fantastic scorer, who is chucking to many shots and he can't win anything and suddenly everything changed when he has got Pippen&co. doing dirty work.

[1993Playoffs]

When I think of Luka (who is an incredible talent) I always go back to the Kobe quote when talking about Harden in 2019?

“You can’t win playing that way.”

That applies to Luka as well…

With a small difference, Luka unlike Harden plays even better in playoffs.

He does which is a feather in his cap, but his flaws are apparent

[Bob8]

When I think of Luka (who is an incredible talent) I always go back to the Kobe quote when talking about Harden in 2019?

“You can’t win playing that way.”

That applies to Luka as well…

With a small difference, Luka unlike Harden plays even better in playoffs.

He does which is a feather in his cap, but his flaws are apparent

Give him C like Shaq and we will see what happens.

It's just stupid to demand rings from 24 years old player with evidently not good enough roster. LeBron couldn't do it and MJ couldn't do it, before they got proper help. Maybe we should give few more years to Luka and Mavs before writing them off. What do you think?

[losmi]

I dont think he is the strong MVP candidate because of the team record as of now nor think he has a real chance this year, but to say he is not mvp level player is just hate... at the end of the day, +/- is one of the many, like ppg, TS%, bpm and should not be the island to hang on as the last line defense

Luka's been in the league 6 years on a team where the roster's been in as much turmoil as any team in the league. He's played with vastly different teammates from year to year. And the common denominator is that every year the team's not much better with him on the floor than the bench. The best on/off he had was +4.9 last year.

By contrast, the worst on/off Giannis has had over the last 7 years was +6.7. Jokic's worst over the last 5 years was +6.2. Embiid's career worst is +5.0. LeBron has 2 seasons under +7.0 in the last 20.

This isn't some random fluke from a small sample. Practically the whole team has turned over in the course of the last 5 years and Luka still manages to put up worse on/off numbers than every other top superstar year in and year out. It's a huge sample at this point.

He's still a very good player that helps the team a lot, especially in the playoffs, but he has some serious deficiencies in his regular season game. He doesn't try very hard on defense and he holds the ball more than any other player in the league so it makes it hard for other guys to do stuff and get in a rhythm. He's much better at making stats than he is at helping his team win. He's just not quite in the same class as the true MVP candidates. He's closer to guys like Brunson and Mitchell than he is to SGA and Jokic. No shame in that, it's still very good company, just not as good as his fanboys would like.

I will ask you again, why SGA needed to wait 5 years to have good +/- numbers? Maybe very good starting lineup helps?

Why Siakam became +/- monster overnight after lending in Indiana?

How many superstars have as backup players like Brunson or Kyrie? For example, who's Jokic replacement?

Yes Mavs changed roster in those 6 years, but not for the better, because they have lost Brunson for nothing and consequently had to trade for Kyrie, losing the most important defensive player. This year the most frequent starting lineup is, Luka/Green/DJJ/Grant/Lively. 3 normally bench players and a rookie. Please compare that to Bucks, Denver or Thunder. Do you really believe Giannis, SGA or Jokic could make this Mavs as contenders?

Who put Luka 4x in a row in first All Nba team? His fanboys? I'm sure we should trust your great analytical genius more. Oh wait, I don't see any kind of argument except ruling all +/-.

In 2021/22, the season he won his second MVP, Jokic had +/- +8.6 while playing with Morris, Barton, Gordon and Jeff Green in the starting lineup. That's a bench player, a non-nba player, an average starter, and a 35yo end-of-the-bench player.

[Mavrelous]

Luka's been in the league 6 years on a team where the roster's been in as much turmoil as any team in the league. He's played with vastly different teammates from year to year. And the common denominator is that every year the team's not much better with him on the floor than the bench. The best on/off he had was +4.9 last year.

By contrast, the worst on/off Giannis has had over the last 7 years was +6.7. Jokic's worst over the last 5 years was +6.2. Embiid's career worst is +5.0. LeBron has 2 seasons under +7.0 in the last 20.

This isn't some random fluke from a small sample. Practically the whole team has turned over in the course of the last 5 years and Luka still manages to put up worse on/off numbers than every other top superstar year in and year out. It's a huge sample at this point.

He's still a very good player that helps the team a lot, especially in the playoffs, but he has some serious deficiencies in his regular season game. He doesn't try very hard on defense and he holds the ball more than any other player in the league so it makes it hard for other guys to do stuff and get in a rhythm. He's much better at making stats than he is at helping his team win. He's just not quite in the same class as the true MVP candidates. He's closer to guys like Brunson and Mitchell than he is to SGA and Jokic. No shame in that, it's still very good company, just not as good as his fanboys would like.

I will ask you again, why SGA needed to wait 5 years to have good +/- numbers? Maybe very good starting lineup helps?

Why Siakam became +/- monster overnight after lending in Indiana?

How many superstars have as backup players like Brunson or Kyrie? For example, who's Jokic replacement?

Yes Mavs changed roster in those 6 years, but not for the better, because they have lost Brunson for nothing and consequently had to trade for Kyrie, losing the most important defensive player. This year the most frequent starting lineup is, Luka/Green/DJJ/Grant/Lively. 3 normally bench players and a rookie. Please compare that to Bucks, Denver or Thunder. Do you really believe Giannis, SGA or Jokic could make this Mavs as contenders?

Who put Luka 4x in a row in first All Nba team? His fanboys? I'm sure we should trust your great analytical genius more. Oh wait, I don't see any kind of argument except ruling all +/-.

In 2021/22, the season he won his second MVP, Jokic had +/- +8.6 while playing with Morris, Barton, Gordon and Jeff Green in the starting lineup. That's a bench player, a non-nba player, an average starter, and a 35yo end-of-the-bench player.

Jokic had no backup, Luka had Brunson as backup, the problem in DAL is the rest of the roster.

And Jokic is having GOAT level peak, he is the best player in the league, Luka is not better than Jokic, what Jokic did in 22, Luka failed to do in 23 and Curry failed to do in 21.
Luka's running mate in 20/21 was KP, -5 on/off player who could barely move after being rushed back from meniscus surgery, he had stretches playing with players I don't know how to pronounce their names because of injuries/COVID.
Yes we have 5.5 year sample, but these 5.5 years had a lot going on.

[losmi]

I will ask you again, why SGA needed to wait 5 years to have good +/- numbers? Maybe very good starting lineup helps?

Why Siakam became +/- monster overnight after lending in Indiana?

How many superstars have as backup players like Brunson or Kyrie? For example, who's Jokic replacement?

Yes Mavs changed roster in those 6 years, but not for the better, because they have lost Brunson for nothing and consequently had to trade for Kyrie, losing the most important defensive player. This year the most frequent starting lineup is, Luka/Green/DJJ/Grant/Lively. 3 normally bench players and a rookie. Please compare that to Bucks, Denver or Thunder. Do you really believe Giannis, SGA or Jokic could make this Mavs as contenders?

Who put Luka 4x in a row in first All Nba team? His fanboys? I'm sure we should trust your great analytical genius more. Oh wait, I don't see any kind of argument except ruling all +/-.

In 2021/22, the season he won his second MVP, Jokic had +/- +8.6 while playing with Morris, Barton, Gordon and Jeff Green in the starting lineup. That's a bench player, a non-nba player, an average starter, and a 35yo end-of-the-bench player.

Jokic had no backup, Luka had Brunson as backup, the problem in DAL is the rest of the roster.

And Jokic is having GOAT level peak, he is the best player in the league, Luka is not better than Jokic, what Jokic did in 22, Luka failed to do in 23 and Curry failed to do in 21.
Luka's running mate in 20/21 was KP, -5 on/off player who could barely move after being rushed back from meniscus surgery, he had stretches playing with players I don't know how to pronounce their names because of injuries/COVID.
Yes we have 5.5 year sample, but these 5.5 years had a lot going on.

+8.6 was his On, not On-Off, so I'm not sure if having a backup matters in that context.

[Wolfgang630]

If Jokic now takes this serious he can win MVP. Those guys on denver gotta tell him to start scoring 30+ a game.

[CD_41]

What I think is realistic for the remaining MVP race:
(Not what I think is necessarily fair!)

1. Jokic: He does not care and will probably still will the MVP if the Nuggets get at least the 3 seed
in the west and he keeps up his current stats.
2. SGA: If the Thunder manage to be at least 2 seeds better than the Nugget or will be the 1 seed in the west,
SGA will have a real shot at the MVP.
3. Luka and the Mavs will have to get at least to the 4th seed in the west for him to win,
which seems pretty unlikely with the emergence of the Clippers.
4. Giannis and the Bucks either need to get the 1 seed or the 2 seed in the east
with Giannis also going nuclear stats-wise.

[Ruma85]

Why can't Brunson be apart of this conversation, if they stay the course.

[losmi]

What I think is realistic for the remaining MVP race:
(Not what I think is necessarily fair!)

1. Jokic: He does not care and will probably still will the MVP if the Nuggets get at least the 3 seed
in the west and he keeps up his current stats.
2. SGA: If the Thunder manage to be at least 2 seeds better than the Nugget or will be the 1 seed in the west,
SGA will have a real shot at the MVP.
3. Luka and the Mavs will have to get at least to the 4th seed in the west for him to win,
which seems pretty unlikely with the emergence of the Clippers.
4. Giannis and the Bucks either need to get the 1 seed or the 2 seed in the east
with Giannis also going nuclear stats-wise.

Jokic will probably have to care because 1-4 in the West are pretty close. Last year, Nuggets basically secured 1st seed early, with a win over MEM on March 3rd.

Why do you think that SGA would need to be 2 seeds better?

[CD_41]

He could join the conversation, if..
1) NY was in business for the 2. seed + an improvement in stats.
2) NY could get the 1. seed and his stats would not dip.

Again, not what I think is fair, just what often needs to be reached in order to get the MVP.
Right now, I got him in the same tier as Haliburton, Mitchell and Tatum, with him and Tatum at the top. But there is definetly room to climb up the ladder or also climb down.

[CD_41]

What I think is realistic for the remaining MVP race:
(Not what I think is necessarily fair!)

1. Jokic: He does not care and will probably still will the MVP if the Nuggets get at least the 3 seed
in the west and he keeps up his current stats.
2. SGA: If the Thunder manage to be at least 2 seeds better than the Nugget or will be the 1 seed in the west,
SGA will have a real shot at the MVP.
3. Luka and the Mavs will have to get at least to the 4th seed in the west for him to win,
which seems pretty unlikely with the emergence of the Clippers.
4. Giannis and the Bucks either need to get the 1 seed or the 2 seed in the east
with Giannis also going nuclear stats-wise.

Jokic will probably have to care because 1-4 in the West are pretty close. Last year, Nuggets basically secured 1st seed early, with a win over MEM on March 3rd.

Why do you think that SGA would need to be 2 seeds better?

Just from a narrative/voter (not mine!) perspective:
If the Thunder finish 2nd and the Nuggets 3rd and their stats stay around the same, I think that the edge will go to Jokic. Since they both have crazy stats but Jokic is proven commodity, I think that SGA will have to create more space between him and Jokic.

He could do this by improving his stats, but they are already so good, that I don't know if that is realistic. Better team success though, is very realistic and could give him the edge.

[Wolfgang630]

Why can't Brunson be apart of this conversation, if they stay the course.

I have him around top 6 now.

[CD_41]

What I think is realistic for the remaining MVP race:
(Not what I think is necessarily fair!)

1. Jokic: He does not care and will probably still will the MVP if the Nuggets get at least the 3 seed
in the west and he keeps up his current stats.
2. SGA: If the Thunder manage to be at least 2 seeds better than the Nugget or will be the 1 seed in the west,
SGA will have a real shot at the MVP.
3. Luka and the Mavs will have to get at least to the 4th seed in the west for him to win,
which seems pretty unlikely with the emergence of the Clippers.
4. Giannis and the Bucks either need to get the 1 seed or the 2 seed in the east
with Giannis also going nuclear stats-wise.

Jokic will probably have to care because 1-4 in the West are pretty close. Last year, Nuggets basically secured 1st seed early, with a win over MEM on March 3rd.

Why do you think that SGA would need to be 2 seeds better?

I don't think he cares about the award that much, but could win it anyway, because he cares about the seeding as you said.

[CD_41]

Why can't Brunson be apart of this conversation, if they stay the course.

I have him around top 6 now.

Yeah, basically the same as me.
Also my post just centered around the top 4 guys.
But this was just an arbitrary cut-off on my part.
If we do a top 6 - he is in

Also I'm heavily rooting for the guy. Rarely is a player that likable as JB.

[QPR]

Why can't Brunson be apart of this conversation, if they stay the course.

To win outright or to be around the top five?

He's a great story but I'm not sure how he elevates above Jokic, SGA and Giannis.