Best Rookie Contract Player for Toronto's 2024 First

[Chinook]

I think it's pretty well explained by the title. But just to go into a bit more detail:

The Spurs have Toronto's 2024 first, which is top-six protected for three years before becoming seconds. Because of the way the lottery works nowadays, the Spurs are still about even odds to get the Raptors pick, and if the Memphis can wedge the Raptors out of that six spot, the chances move to solidly likely the Spurs get the pick. I fully expect the Spurs to keep the pick through the draft and not to make any "buying" trade this year.

However, let's say the Spurs did get spooked about the idea of having four or five firsts in 2025 and decide to try to cash in on the Toronto pick by getting an guaranteed young player on their roster rather than worrying about lottery balls. Would there be any takers? I feel like the Raptors pick has pretty good value considering the unlikelihood of Toronto being top-six three years in a row combined with the likelihood of them not being a great team for the next couple of years.

In terms of how I'd score offers, I would consider years left on rookie contract to be of almost equal importance as talent. By that I mean I'd be against the Spurs trading the Raptors pick for anyone on their last year unless that player was already very good, whereas a guy in his second year could still be more promise than production. I don't think position really matters, though the team should probably avoid most center prospects

[zimpy27]

Gradey Dick?

[Ell Curry]

Maybe Cason Wallace, because the Thunder could draft someone bigger (Sarr, Holland or Buzelis) and move say #12 for Alex Caruso to replace Wallace, but it's probably just easier for the Thunder to move one of their late lotto firsts and turn that into a solid PF, like going for Bobby Portis (Bucks get Caruso say, Bulls get a late lotto pick) or Naz Reid and Slo-Mo for #12 and a future first and say the Wolves get Brogdon and the Blazers get that future first and the Wolves take a guard to hopefully be ready in 2-3 years when Conley is totally done and Brogdon is getting there, and the Wolves have the summer to find a backup 3 and hope Leonard Miller can be the new backup 4.

[Monky15]

As part of some type of pick package for Ivey from the Pistons?
Spurs roll the dice on a young PG who is in an odd situation on a team that seemingly has a pgof in Cunningham.
Pistons de clutter their back court for future picks.

[babyjax13]

I think this is an impossible assignment, tbh. If you are moving a rookie contract for a pick it is bc they are not in your long term plans, so why would Toronto want them?

[DrModesty]

The point of lottery picks is to get guys who end up being good, so no one is going to trade the bird in the hand, especially when the bush doesn't look very promising.

You are probably talking about guys who don't really get much in the way of opportunity with their teams but have potential.

AJ Griffin, Ousmane Dieng. Maybe Moses Moody for a slightly more proven guy, but he is quite far in to his rookie deal. Maybe best case could be Dyson Daniels?

[BK_2020]

Jordan Walsh

[Texas Chuck]

I think this is an impossible assignment, tbh. If you are moving a rookie contract for a pick it is bc they are not in your long term plans, so why would Toronto want them?

San Antonio, not Toronto.

and I agree its hard to see a team giving up on their rookie for a nebulous pick and have the Spurs want to give up a likely lottery pick for the same guy. It's a tricky balance to find.

Especially since the OP wants 1st or 2nd year guys that a team is less likely to be giving up on versus a 3 or 4 year guy who might be pretty good, but already a team might know they can't or don't want to pay them their next contract.

And then finally this feels much more like a draft day trade. Then the Spurs are selling a specific pick and if a certain player is on the board a team might make the George Hill/pick that became Kawhi type deal.

[brackdan70]

Jordan Walsh

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

[AbC?]

Jordan Walsh

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

Is Walsh some kind of meme that I’m not familiar with? Why would he be worth potentially the 7th pick?

[Texas Chuck]

Jordan Walsh

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

Do you seriously think someone will give up that lightly protected of a pick for Walsh? That seems crazy optimistic for a 2nd round pick not playing at all.

[BK_2020]

Jordan Walsh

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

Is Walsh some kind of meme that I’m not familiar with? Why would he be worth potentially the 7th pick?

It's a Celtics board meme sorry. On our board Walsh is thought to be a cross between Lebron and Curry.

[tacos]

Gradey Dick?

From my observation the Raptors really love Dick... they have fought off everyone trying to trade for him

Also now that they have traded away most of their talent I expect them to join the rest of us tanking teams at the bottom of the barrel and for that pick to not convey

[brackdan70]

Jordan Walsh

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

Do you seriously think someone will give up that lightly protected of a pick for Walsh? That seems crazy optimistic for a 2nd round pick not playing at all.

I didn’t say that. Was more getting at what type of rookie a team might give up for this pick. Since it’s top 6 protected and turns into two seconds and Toronto is in the deconstruction process and currently in that 6th spot there seems to be a strong chance that it won’t convey

[brackdan70]

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

Is Walsh some kind of meme that I’m not familiar with? Why would he be worth potentially the 7th pick?

It's a Celtics board meme sorry. On our board Walsh is thought to be a cross between Lebron and Curry.

Curry and Rodman, but yeah lol. As for the pick it seems as likely to be 2 2nds as number 7. Toronto seems like they are clearly trying to make sure it doesn’t convey.

[brackdan70]

Jordan Walsh

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

Do you seriously think someone will give up that lightly protected of a pick for Walsh? That seems crazy optimistic for a 2nd round pick not playing at all.

And as for Walsh, yeah he is 2nd round pick in the G league but on a really team friendly contract. He has amazing potential and was considered a lottery talent coming out of HS. Spurs likely wouldn’t trade this pick for Walsh, but no team is going give up a rookie contract guy who is in the rotation and a part of the teams future for this pick. It needs to be a guy the team is not vested in…so it’s a tough deal to make.

[Texas Chuck]

That thought crossed my mind, but who in this draft that might be in the teens is more exciting than Walsh?

Seems like the type of player a team might trade for that pick though.

Do you seriously think someone will give up that lightly protected of a pick for Walsh? That seems crazy optimistic for a 2nd round pick not playing at all.

I didn’t say that. Was more getting at what type of rookie a team might give up for this pick. Since it’s top 6 protected and turns into two seconds and Toronto is in the deconstruction process and currently in that 6th spot there seems to be a strong chance that it won’t convey

BK walked it back--as he should. You seem to be doubling down almost and justifying it by claiming a pick that doesn't convey as 2nds for 3 years is likely just 2 2nds.

Not a chance in hell the Spurs would give that pick for Walsh or a player like him. I doubt they'd give 2 2nds for him much less a pick far more likely to be in the lottery than be 2 2nds.

Wild takes. I get we love our guys, but wish we didn't do this sort of over hyping. This is back when the Celtics got Moses Brown for nothing, he didn't play a minute, and lottery picks were being demanded because he was Artis Gilmore. Then the Celtics literally salary dumped his min contract. And shockingly the guy has been a fringe NBA player ever since.

[brackdan70]

Do you seriously think someone will give up that lightly protected of a pick for Walsh? That seems crazy optimistic for a 2nd round pick not playing at all.

I didn’t say that. Was more getting at what type of rookie a team might give up for this pick. Since it’s top 6 protected and turns into two seconds and Toronto is in the deconstruction process and currently in that 6th spot there seems to be a strong chance that it won’t convey

BK walked it back--as he should. You seem to be doubling down almost and justifying it by claiming a pick that doesn't convey as 2nds for 3 years is likely just 2 2nds.

Not a chance in hell the Spurs would give that pick for Walsh or a player like him. I doubt they'd give 2 2nds for him much less a pick far more likely to be in the lottery than be 2 2nds.

Wild takes. I get we love our guys, but wish we didn't do this sort of over hyping. This is back when the Celtics got Moses Brown for nothing, he didn't play a minute, and lottery picks were being demanded because he was Artis Gilmore. Then the Celtics literally salary dumped his min contract. And shockingly the guy has been a fringe NBA player ever since.

I think you are reading too much into what I am saying. I looking at it from what type of player a team would give up for that pick. Not about what the spurs want for the pick. Not talking about Walsh specifically. I said there is a strong chance that it doesn’t convey, based on the way Toronto is approaching things. I haven’t really delved deep into the% , but seems about 50/50. Am I way off there?

[Texas Chuck]

ITs top 6 for 3 years, its not just top 6 this year. No chance its 50/50 that Toronto doesn't finish outside the top 6 over the next 3 years.

[wemby]

Toronto's pick is very promising. The best that pick can convey is at 7th place, and right now it has a 54% chance of conveying. If not, it still has 2 more years, so it's not a one shot gamble. I think if it's traded it's more likely to be a draft night thing, where you already have the pick and some team already likes what's available and makes a pitch. Like say it comes at 7, and Risacher is available (big wing who can shoot), then if the Pistons took Sarr or someone like that, they could prefer to balance their roster by trading Ivey for Risacher. That's a kind of scenario where a movement like this would make sense. Not saying this would or should happen, personally I'm not a fan of Ivey and I'd rather make the pick or move it for a consolidated player, but it's the kind of scenario where I could see both the Spurs and a third team going for a trade along the proposed lines.

I think this is an impossible assignment, tbh. If you are moving a rookie contract for a pick it is bc they are not in your long term plans, so why would Toronto want them?

The Spurs own Toronto's 24 first round pick, that's what the OP is talking about. It'd have to be a player that is good enough to be worth of a lottery selection, but probably out of the rotation because there's a logjam or something along those lines.