2024 weak draft pick = ? In 2025 pick? Poll

[Rapsalot]

Thanks for giving your thoughts.
Basic question is 2024 has been called a weak draft & 2025 is said to be deeper?

With that said if we develop / but lose games this year and get top 5 draft pick what position do we have to get to next year to have us better than what we send to Spurs?

Ignore all other draft strategies like moving other 2024 picks for future ones say in 2025 or 26.

[KL78192020]

im genuinely curious outside of the top 2-3 guys next year who is miles ahead of guys in this years draft.

[720]

I don’t understand your question.

Are you asking what position in the draft we’ll be next year after this current one passes? Hopefully top 5.

[Thaddy]

The draft is good. That's just propaganda stemming from the parity. What makes a player better than the rest? Genetics?

Even if it's natural born genetics you would have a lot of these guys due to the sheer population of the world.

Back in the day if you took all the 7 footers in the world, you'd have another filter for who actually gets exposure.

Enter the internet. Getting exposure is easier than ever, and finding training is easier.

Anyone remember Better Basketball training videos?

[ImaBeatDatAzz]

I don’t understand your question.

Are you asking what position in the draft we’ll be next year after this current one passes? Hopefully top 5.

I think it’s because everyone is saying this draft is super weak, so the question is if we land the #5 pick this year and keep it, what’s the equivalence of it with next year’s draft? Maybe the #10-11 spot?

Still hard to answer cuz you never know

[Zeno]

I personally have no clue but from a few of the draft pods I’ve listened to, it is probably worth around the 15th pick in most drafts. Who knows if they are right about that.

[Purple+Black]

My best case scenario for us runs with us keeping the 5th or moving up the draft into the top 3 this year, followed up by a solid FA signing, drafting our rookies, and organic growth leading us into the play-in for next year. If we accomplish that, we keep a top 6 pick this year and convey only a 2025 mid-first to San Antonio. I think we would win out the Poeltl trade if everything falls in line

[Indeed]

The top 5 players on this 2024 draft has some holes, feel they are closer to 4 - 9 on a regular draft.

However 2025 class is unknown. But most likely better, and we can trade our future pick.

Meanwhile, do I believe we are tanking next year? Yes. Our half court offense is still very bad (if not worse), and we have people who get points, but not someone who can bailout or score on critical moment.

[wegotthabeet]

My best case scenario for us runs with us keeping the 5th or moving up the draft into the top 3 this year, followed up by a solid FA signing, drafting our rookies, and organic growth leading us into the play-in for next year. If we accomplish that, we keep a top 6 pick this year and convey only a 2025 mid-first to San Antonio. I think we would win out the Poeltl trade if everything falls in line

we keeping both the 2024 & 2025 picks.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Take away the top five, because nobody at this point stands out. We should know by this point who the best player is, as they stick out. They've been scouted since grade school in most cases. They aren't hiding. It's a mediocre draft at best.

2025 projects to be much deeper.

[Purple+Black]

My best case scenario for us runs with us keeping the 5th or moving up the draft into the top 3 this year, followed up by a solid FA signing, drafting our rookies, and organic growth leading us into the play-in for next year. If we accomplish that, we keep a top 6 pick this year and convey only a 2025 mid-first to San Antonio. I think we would win out the Poeltl trade if everything falls in line

we keeping both the 2024 & 2025 picks.

Doubt it, given our FO’s track record. Also, they will not want to cut deeply into Scottie’s time with us by going through a full prolonged rebuild starting in his 3rd season. That’s the impression I get.

We also aren’t as bad as some of the other tanking teams when fully healthy

[wegotthabeet]

My best case scenario for us runs with us keeping the 5th or moving up the draft into the top 3 this year, followed up by a solid FA signing, drafting our rookies, and organic growth leading us into the play-in for next year. If we accomplish that, we keep a top 6 pick this year and convey only a 2025 mid-first to San Antonio. I think we would win out the Poeltl trade if everything falls in line

we keeping both the 2024 & 2025 picks.

Doubt it, given our FO’s track record. Also, they will not want to cut deeply into Scottie’s time with us by going through a full prolonged rebuild starting in his 3rd season. That’s the impression I get.

We also aren’t as bad as some of the other tanking teams when fully healthy

seems to have worked well for OKC with SGA.

[Chandan]

Masai is going to come out looking like a genius when we give SA our 2027 second round pick.

[Johnny Bball]

Thanks for giving your thoughts.
Basic question is 2024 has been called a weak draft & 2025 is said to be deeper?

With that said if we develop / but lose games this year and get top 5 draft pick what position do we have to get to next year to have us better than what we send to Spurs?

Ignore all other draft strategies like moving other 2024 picks for future ones say in 2025 or 26.

The top 5-6 in this draft just do not stand out. There is no known/projected superstar. That does not mean that everyone else in the draft sucks proprtionally to them. Otherwise this draft looks to be about as deep in other talent as somewhere between 2022 and 2023. And pretty flat in talent where its a bit of a crap shoot.

There's still going to be good/decent choices left in the twenties, compared and similar to what you normally get in the twenties. I'm not certain that will extent past that to 31.

Nobody wants to give up a 2025 pick because so far the draft is supposed to be very deep. And have talent at the top. I think its unlikely any 24 picks get moved for 25 picks.

[RoteSchroder]

if you look at the top 3-6 hyped up prospects in past drafts, a lot of them turn out mediocre or busts

There are like 20 prospects in 2024 that I'd take over Scoot Henderson

[CazOnReal]

Way too early to say.

2025 isn't seen as a whole lot better and most scouts were not enthused by said class until Cooper Flagg reclassified. But at the same time, a lot of those "top 2025 prospects" are still in high school so who knows how they'll fare in a college setting, Flagg included.

I'll say this for 2025: 2024 is often compared to 2000's draft and when the best player in that draft was a random second rounder (Michael Redd), it is a testament to how weak this upcoming draft is expected to be. Granted, Redd and Kenyon Martin both had their careers hampered by injuries so who knows if they would have made more All-Star (or in Redd's case, All-NBA 3rd Team) appearances.

[aminiaturebuddha]

I think it's hard to compare to future drafts, but you can get a realistic idea by comparing to past drafts. And people have been saying it's a weaker draft because the top end doesn't compare to previous years, although it may have as much depth 1-60 (and why it still may be possible to get rotation players with late 1st round picks).

For instance, I don't think there's anyone in this year's draft that would have been chosen before the top 3 guys in 2023 (Wemby, Miller, Scoot). Same with the 2022 draft (Paolo, Chet, Smith Jr.), and maybe even no one who would have been picked before Keegan Murray or Jaden Ivey. In the 2021 draft, likely no one from this year would have been drafted before any of the top 4 (Cade, Green, Mobley, Barnes).

So if we take that as an "average", and if 2025 turns out to be an average draft class, the 5th pick this year could be about the same value as the 8th or 9th pick. But it's very tough to predict into the future like that, especially until we see the 2025 draft class with another year of development and see who separates themselves as top prospects.

[mdenny]

Are there any draft experts who've specifically broke down the nature of this weak draft?

I've only heard one guy specifically say that the 'WHOLE' draft is weak.

Has anyone said something like "it's just the top 10 that are weak relative to other classes"?

A man can hope lol.

[RoteSchroder]

Way too early to say.

2025 isn't seen as a whole lot better and most scouts were not enthused by said class until Cooper Flagg reclassified. But at the same time, a lot of those "top 2025 prospects" are still in high school so who knows how they'll fare in a college setting, Flagg included.

I'll say this for 2025: 2024 is often compared to 2000's draft and when the best player in that draft was a random second rounder (Michael Redd), it is a testament to how weak this upcoming draft is expected to be. Granted, Redd and Kenyon Martin both had their careers hampered by injuries so who knows if they would have made more All-Star (or in Redd's case, All-NBA 3rd Team) appearances.

I think it's more comparable to 2023 minus Wemby

I don't see any superstar prospects in the rest of the draft class. And after a little over half a season, a few rookies seem like high floor players, but it's still hard to tell whether any of them will ever become all-stars.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Are there any draft experts who've specifically broke down the nature of this weak draft?

I've only heard one guy specifically say that the 'WHOLE' draft is weak.

Has anyone said something like "it's just the top 10 that are weak relative to other classes"?

A man can hope lol.

Most of the podcasts that I've listened to that focus on the draft (No Ceilings, Game Theory, NBA Big Board, etc.) say some variation of "there are no sure star talents at the top, but decent depth, and 15-40 are kind of interchangeable". Make of that what you will.