Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[shrink]

I haven’t had the time to listen to many Dane Moore podcasts, so I may have missed something he said earlier, but I was surprised how he thought that back up PG was the third priority for a Wolves acquisition (behind three point shooting and movement scorer, if I recall). He acknowledged that a guy like Monte could help finish this regular season with home court advantage on the line, and reduce minutes on Mike Conley to keep him fresher for the playoffs. But he believes that Monte wouldn’t get playing time in the playoffs with an eight man rotation, and if Mike Conley went down, we were dead anyway. Maybe.

But what I think he is missing is that GM’s need to look at the longterm picture. What if we can’t bring back Mike Conley? What if he asks for a big number? What if he gets hurt, or what if he simply decides to retire? The Wolves would need a starting PG, and they have limited options:

1. Find someone on their current roster. If MIN had to choose between MacLaughlin, NAW, Clark or I suppose SloMo, the team would have perhaps the worst starting PG in the NBA.

2. Convert Ant to PG. He’s not ready, and I would say to reach his maximum development, he needs to stay at SG for now.

3. Draft a rookie with our late 1st. A rookie would undoubtedly be over their head as a starter.

4. Sign a free agent with the tax-payer MLE. A legitimate starter probably costs more than the MLE, plus it’s possible with the expensive extensions that MIN could be over the second apron anyway, and not get any exceptions other than vet min.

5. That leaves one option: break up the team with a trade. Regardless of how well MIN does this year, the Wolves would have to trade a key piece to get someone’s available starter. This isn’t a temporary problem either - we can’t spend our way out of it over the next few years. We are going to be too expensive, and not have the financial mechanisms for a long time.


Monte Morris helps us now, but we would also get his Bird rights for next year. Yes, he’s a below average starting PG, but he’s a borderline starter, and the other options if we lose Conley are all much much worse.

[Dewey]

Bogdan Bogdanovic .. TC needs to find a way to bring in another team to help move $$.

Move McDaniels? 10.9 - 2.7 - 1.3 in the season … meh!! Overrated

[Domejandro]

Even ignoring the serious concerns about Monte Morris returning to form this season, following the injury, I do think that people are underestimating the extent to which Tyus Jones is better. Much more reliable spot starter who was arguably the best backup Point-Guard in the NBA, last season. Having the most efficient season of his NBA career in Washington, despite the surrounding options being rough.

The obvious benefit of trading for Monte Morris instead that Minnesota would not have to trade Kyle Anderson to get him. Outside of that major consideration, Tyus is pretty clearly the better choice.

[Mamba4Goat]

Even ignoring the serious concerns about Monte Morris returning to form this season, following the injury, I do think that people are underestimating the extent to which Tyus Jones is better. Much more reliable spot starter who was arguably the best backup Point-Guard in the NBA, last season. Having the most efficient season of his NBA career in Washington, despite the surrounding options being rough.

The obvious benefit of trading for Monte Morris instead that Minnesota would not have to trade Kyle Anderson to get him. Outside of that major consideration, Tyus is pretty clearly the better choice.

Tyus is understandably better, however, as you mentioned it will cost Anderson and on top of that, it’ll most likely cost more assets and cost more to retain Tyus next year. I love Tyus but it’s hard to rationalize trading for him when Morris is available for much less and way more retainable.

[winforlose]

My brother sent this to me today. Not sure if this is true or when this happened. But if true and recent is a bad sign. Could change as the deadline approaches.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[jpatrick]

My brother sent this to me today. Not sure if this is true or when this happened. But if true and recent is a bad sign. Could change as the deadline approaches.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

The article has an update that says we did NOT offer four seconds but did make an offer. This signals to me Tyus may be the top trade target. Wonder if they’d try to do this without Anderson.

[Domejandro]

My brother sent this to me today. Not sure if this is true or when this happened. But if true and recent is a bad sign. Could change as the deadline approaches.

[snip]

NBACentral is a clickbait Twitter account that is linking to ActionNetwork (a gambling news/funnel website).

The article that they cite has since been updated with the following...

The Wizards' offer threshold continues to stay at a first-rounder. The Minnesota Timberwolves, two sources said, offered four second-rounders for Jones, but Washington held the line. (UPDATE: A source close to the situation says the Wolves did not offer four seconds, but did make an offer for Jones.)

So the source is very questionable and has immediately retracted its claim. If that ends up as the price, it wouldn't be the most shocking thing (with Kyle Anderson being sent to another team to eat two seconds of the cost), but the article is pretty rough.

[winforlose]

Again, I have no idea about credibility or accuracy. I just shared what I was sent. Sounds like good news that it was partially or near totally wrong.

[Guest84]

My brother sent this to me today. Not sure if this is true or when this happened. But if true and recent is a bad sign. Could change as the deadline approaches.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

The article has an update that says we did NOT offer four seconds but did make an offer. This signals to me Tyus may be the top trade target. Wonder if they’d try to do this without Anderson.

I saw this here:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/timberwolves-tried-trading-4-draft-picks-for-tyus-jones-but-wizards-said-no/ar-BB1hIZK4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=0864686c34c24c66bf89dddcca4d2a75&ei=16

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Tyus will be a great option. He play with Mike at Grizzlies and is a fantastic back up. It will help reduce TO a lot, will allow to reduce Mike min and get him ready for PO. I hope we make it. And if we have to give Slomo to make it happen, just do it.

[TimberKat]

Wizard can hold out for a 1st round pick but I don't see anyone offering that. Their own 2nd is as good as a 1st. They will wait until the deadline and if they don't trade him, they get nothing. So, I am not concerned. The better question is who are we bidding against and what's their best offer. Lakers and Philly to a lesser degree. There are two trade options out there: Morris, Jones. Lowry on the buyout.

[shrink]

The article has an update that says we did NOT offer four seconds but did make an offer. This signals to me Tyus may be the top trade target. Wonder if they’d try to do this without Anderson.

Good update because we only have three tradeable seconds.

2024 MEM 2nd
2025 UTA 2nd
2026 worse of IND, MIA, SA 2nd

We’ve traded all our own 2nds except 2029, but we can’t trade it. UTA gets it if they don’t get our 2029 1st, top 5 protected.

[shangrila]

Even ignoring the serious concerns about Monte Morris returning to form this season, following the injury, I do think that people are underestimating the extent to which Tyus Jones is better. Much more reliable spot starter who was arguably the best backup Point-Guard in the NBA, last season. Having the most efficient season of his NBA career in Washington, despite the surrounding options being rough.

The obvious benefit of trading for Monte Morris instead that Minnesota would not have to trade Kyle Anderson to get him. Outside of that major consideration, Tyus is pretty clearly the better choice.

Tyus is understandably better, however, as you mentioned it will cost Anderson and on top of that, it’ll most likely cost more assets and cost more to retain Tyus next year. I love Tyus but it’s hard to rationalize trading for him when Morris is available for much less and way more retainable.

Just to jump in here, there's ways to get Tyus without Anderson. But it's going to involve going into the tax this season.

I know most people here hate that idea but personally I don't see how this team can be kept together financially long term anyway. So if we can, let's go for it now and worry about the money later. We might not have a better chance with this current core.

[BlacJacMac]

Tyus will be a great option. He play with Mike at Grizzlies and is a fantastic back up. It will help reduce TO a lot, will allow to reduce Mike min and get him ready for PO. I hope we make it. And if we have to give Slomo to make it happen, just do it.

Tyus’ first year in Memphis was Conley’s first year in Utah.

[TimberKat]

The article has an update that says we did NOT offer four seconds but did make an offer. This signals to me Tyus may be the top trade target. Wonder if they’d try to do this without Anderson.

Good update because we only have three tradeable seconds.

2024 MEM 2nd
2025 UTA 2nd
2026 worse of IND, MIA, SA 2nd

We’ve traded all our own 2nds except 2029, but we can’t trade it. UTA gets it if they don’t get our 2029 1st, top 5 protected.

Isn't the 2024 2nd the better of MEM and WAS ( the team with the worse record)?

[shrink]

The article has an update that says we did NOT offer four seconds but did make an offer. This signals to me Tyus may be the top trade target. Wonder if they’d try to do this without Anderson.

Good update because we only have three tradeable seconds.

2024 MEM 2nd
2025 UTA 2nd
2026 worse of IND, MIA, SA 2nd

We’ve traded all our own 2nds except 2029, but we can’t trade it. UTA gets it if they don’t get our 2029 1st, top 5 protected.

Isn't the 2024 2nd the better of MEM and WAS ( the team with the worse record)?

You’re right, but WAS has only won 9 games this year and is selling off its talent. I don’t think MEM, with 18 wins, will be worse.

It’s sitting at #37 right now, if anyone is interested.

[winforlose]

So I have a blind spot in my trade knowledge surrounding cash. I know there is a set amount of non cap money one team can pay another for picks or players. I don’t know off hand how much that amount is. My question is whether we could find a team or two with extra seconds and buy one or two with non cap dollars and then use them towards our eventual move? Then again I am not sure who would be willing to sell future seconds for cash at the trade deadline?

[shrink]

So I have a blind spot in my trade knowledge surrounding cash. I know there is a set amount of non cap money one team can pay another for picks or players. I don’t know off hand how much that amount is. My question is whether we could find a team or two with extra seconds and buy one or two with non cap dollars and then use them towards our eventual move? Then again I am not sure who would be willing to sell future seconds for cash at the trade deadline?

The amount of cash a team can give and receive is up to $6,363,000.

I expect us to use cash in a trade of Wendell Moore Jr, helping pay next year’s salary for a team that can handle his tiny cap hit.

As for buying a pick, it happens and in the past, we would even see late firsts go for the full $3 mil in cash. Of course, trading a pick for cash always angers the fanbase, so we generally see it in a fast moving draft, but it can happen at the trade deadline. If you are looking for likely candidates, I’d look for teams that have too many picks for their roster size, and teams that are in smaller markets where a few million dollars means something to them. I’d also look for teams that have earlier picks, so a GM isn’t selling a team’s top asset. POR’s #39 or OKC’s #42 might fit those criteria. I like to use tankathon to keep track.

https://www.tankathon.com/power_rankings

[wolves_89]

A few thoughts on trading for Tyus.

First, I'd be much more confident in Jones production than Morris. Monte has played a grand total of 60 minutes this season with fairly awful production, while Jones has almost 1400 minutes of solid play.

Second, I've come to believe that replacing Anderson's role with Tyus and Brown would result in a moderate net gain on the court. There would be somewhat of a decline on the defensive end, but the increased shooting and playmaking are likely to result in a significantly larger improvement on offense. One of the biggest impacts could be in terms of turnovers due to the improved spacing (teams couldn't stack the paint to stop Ant and KAT as easily) and Jones great ass/to numbers.

Third, I think it's going to be critical to rest Mike a fair amount the rest of the way and having Tyus would make doing so far less painful. Tyus would also be incredible insurance in case Conley misses time in the playoffs (which at his age is fairly likely).

Fourth, as far as next season, adding Jones would give the Wolves two options to re-sign at PG and if the ownership is willing to spend the money I could see them bringing both back in 2024-25. We are going to be over the luxury tax line and probably the second apron, so going all in for a one season championship run would be a great way to kickoff the new ownership era.

[winforlose]

A few thoughts on trading for Tyus.

First, I'd be much more confident in Jones production than Morris. Monte has played a grand total of 60 minutes this season with fairly awful production, while Jones has almost 1400 minutes of solid play.

Second, I've come to believe that replacing Anderson's role with Tyus and Brown would result in a moderate net gain on the court. There would be somewhat of a decline on the defensive end, but the increased shooting and playmaking are likely to result in a significantly larger improvement on offense. One of the biggest impacts could be in terms of turnovers due to the improved spacing (teams couldn't stack the paint to stop Ant and KAT as easily) and Jones great ass/to numbers.

Third, I think it's going to be critical to rest Mike a fair amount the rest of the way and having Tyus would make doing so far less painful. Tyus would also be incredible insurance in case Conley misses time in the playoffs (which at his age is fairly likely).

Fourth, as far as next season, adding Jones would give the Wolves two options to re-sign at PG and if the ownership is willing to spend the money I could see them bringing both back in 2024-25. We are going to be over the luxury tax line and probably the second apron, so going all in for a one season championship run would be a great way to kickoff the new ownership era.

You forgot 5 and 6.

5. Tyus at 27 turning 28 is entering his prime. He is on the perfect timeline for Ant, Jaden, and Naz. As he learns their games the chemistry will only grow and the continuity will strengthen that chemistry.

6. Tyus isn’t just coming to the Wolves, he is coming home. Being the starting PG for the Timberwolves is very likely his dream. As long as we pay him fairly and treat him right, I don’t see him ever demanding out.