Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[jpatrick]

I’m coming around on Tyus, mostly because Conley is so important, and I’m becoming less confident he’s going to make it through the season playing on a full time basis. Tyus being Conley insurance is important.

I feel like if the deal is just Tyus on a rental, my guess is we will try to do it without moving Anderson. If Anderson is in the deal (probably going to a third team for value) along with Shake/Brown, I think we try to get Kispert and Tyus. That would take all our draft capital whereas I really think that Memphis/Wiz pick is probably enough for Tyus alone, as it’s basically a late first.

Tyus here longterm is interesting. Will he sign here if we sign Conley? What price? We could probably do his current contract but not more.

[winforlose]

I’m coming around on Tyus, mostly because Conley is so important, and I’m becoming less confident he’s going to make it through the season playing on a full time basis. Tyus being Conley insurance is important.

I feel like if the deal is just Tyus on a rental, my guess is we will try to do it without moving Anderson. If Anderson is in the deal (probably going to a third team for value) along with Shake/Brown, I think we try to get Kispert and Tyus. That would take all our draft capital whereas I really think that Memphis/Wiz pick is probably enough for Tyus alone, as it’s basically a late first.

Tyus here longterm is interesting. Will he sign here if we sign Conley? What price? We could probably do his current contract but not more.

I wouldn’t assume anything about the money side. You don’t know how profitable the team actually is. You don’t know how the projected value of a championship is in a market our size. Or how significant national exposure will further increase merch sales, or even how much national tv games will pay under a forthcoming media rights deal. People always say ownership is cheap in MN, but that ownership is gone. If the new ownership sees substantial profit by paying 80-100 in tax, then it makes sense they pay 80-100 in tax. The bird rights make it possible, the question is what number would Tyus demand?

[BlacJacMac]

I’m coming around on Tyus, mostly because Conley is so important, and I’m becoming less confident he’s going to make it through the season playing on a full time basis. Tyus being Conley insurance is important.

I feel like if the deal is just Tyus on a rental, my guess is we will try to do it without moving Anderson. If Anderson is in the deal (probably going to a third team for value) along with Shake/Brown, I think we try to get Kispert and Tyus. That would take all our draft capital whereas I really think that Memphis/Wiz pick is probably enough for Tyus alone, as it’s basically a late first.

Tyus here longterm is interesting. Will he sign here if we sign Conley? What price? We could probably do his current contract but not more.

Agreed.

I think if we trade for Tyus, we end up having to choose between Conley and Jones after the season. I don’t think it’s feasible to bring back both.

[wolves_89]

I’m coming around on Tyus, mostly because Conley is so important, and I’m becoming less confident he’s going to make it through the season playing on a full time basis. Tyus being Conley insurance is important.

I feel like if the deal is just Tyus on a rental, my guess is we will try to do it without moving Anderson. If Anderson is in the deal (probably going to a third team for value) along with Shake/Brown, I think we try to get Kispert and Tyus. That would take all our draft capital whereas I really think that Memphis/Wiz pick is probably enough for Tyus alone, as it’s basically a late first.

Tyus here longterm is interesting. Will he sign here if we sign Conley? What price? We could probably do his current contract but not more.

Agreed.

I think if we trade for Tyus, we end up having to choose between Conley and Jones after the season. I don’t think it’s feasible to bring back both.

The only issue with bringing both back next season would be ownerships willingness to spend money. If the team makes a deep playoff run this year, I could see both Conley and Jones being brough back for a title run (Conley likely on a 1 year deal). The way the roster is constructed there would be no problems (other than paying a decent sized luxury tax bill) navigating the 2nd apron for 2024-25.

Wolves fans have it ingrained into their psyche that the team will never spend big money, but I'm hopeful the new owners will agree to do it for at least one year if the team is playing at a contending level.

[winforlose]

So left field notion. I know I said I don’t think we trade Naz. But if we did, what about something like this

Wolves out: Naz, Kyle, Shake
Wolves in: Coby White, and Nikola Vucevic

Essentially this is two trades in one. Naz for White, and expirings of Kyle and Shake for Vuc. Vuc is bad money and on the decline, but he can still floor space and rebound. He can play with Rudy or KAT and his money can be moved as an expiring in two years which we will find useful if we are a top team and need to be able to bring in talent.

Coby White is having a strong year and could be our PG
of the future. It would suck to lose Naz, but Conley moves to the bench and fills that 6th man role.

The next move is to trade WMJ and cash for cap space, or throw WMJ into the bulls deal. After we sign a buyout replacement for Kyle. Next year Miller steps into that spot. We could also convert Garza or sign a second buyout as needed.

P.S money might get tight, but I think we could find a move or two (maybe TBJ,) that gets us under the tax, even with Mike’s bonus.

[BlacJacMac]

Maybe if we make the WCF both come back in a “co-starring” role. But I don’t think either wants to come off the bench at this point. Mike probably feels he has another year or two as the man (and he seems to still be salty about how he was minimized in Utah) and Tyus now has a big enough starting sample between MEM and WAS to believe he belongs as a starter.

I also put very little stock in selling athletes on “playing for their home team” as a major selling point. I think that is way more of a fan projection than a real thing.

[winforlose]

Maybe if we make the WCF both come back in a “co-starring” role. But I don’t think either wants to come off the bench at this point. Mike probably feels he has another year or two as the man (and he seems to still be salty about how he was minimized in Utah) and Tyus now has a big enough starting sample between MEM and WAS to believe he belongs as a starter.

I also put very little stock in selling athletes on “playing for their home team” as a major selling point. I think that is way more of a fan projection than a real thing.

Maybe, but Bron went back to Cleveland. As for who starts. This year it would probably stay Mike. The thinking being Mike is playing great, Tyus needs to build chemistry, and Mike will rest some games anyway giving Tyus the start. They probably split minutes in the playoffs to keep Mike healthy throughout. Next year it should transition to Tyus as 37 is not a good age to play 30+ minutes. By 25-26 Mike might not even be in the league, and even if he is, who knows where his game will be at. I get wanting to keep Mike happy, but he is where he is. He has had two bad games and missed four of the last 7-8. This is an early warning of needing Mike insurance, and sometimes that makes things complicated.

[BlacJacMac]

LeBron is a really unique case though. He WAS Cleveland since he was a kid. And he was a hero to that community to a level that a Tyus could never be.

And he still fled to LA for non-basketball reasons.

Its fans romanticizing players desires to play for their hometowns. For example I used to play Fantasy Football with a guy who grew up in Minnesota, starred at the U and then won 3 rings with the 49ers. We used to ask him if he regretted not playing even a single season for the Vikings, and the answer was no. He acknowledged it would be cool for his family and friends, but once you make the Pros, it stops being about your childhood team and who your idols were and becomes 100% a business.

[BlacJacMac]

Maybe if we make the WCF both come back in a “co-starring” role. But I don’t think either wants to come off the bench at this point. Mike probably feels he has another year or two as the man (and he seems to still be salty about how he was minimized in Utah) and Tyus now has a big enough starting sample between MEM and WAS to believe he belongs as a starter.

I also put very little stock in selling athletes on “playing for their home team” as a major selling point. I think that is way more of a fan projection than a real thing.

Maybe, but Bron went back to Cleveland. As for who starts. This year it would probably stay Mike. The thinking being Mike is playing great, Tyus needs to build chemistry, and Mike will rest some games anyway giving Tyus the start. They probably split minutes in the playoffs to keep Mike healthy throughout. Next year it should transition to Tyus as 37 is not a good age to play 30+ minutes. By 25-26 Mike might not even be in the league, and even if he is, who knows where his game will be at. I get wanting to keep Mike happy, but he is where he is. He has had two bad games and missed four of the last 7-8. This is an early warning of needing Mike insurance, and sometimes that makes things complicated.

As long as you're fine with the idea that Mike very well might sign elsewhere if we make a commitment to Tyus, then its all good.

I still vividly remember Billups leaving because all he asked of us to stay was a chance to compete with Brandon for the starting job. McHale refused and Chauncey left.

Like I could easily see Orlando throwing a hefty 2 year offer at Conley to help them take it to the next level and mentor their young PGs.

[winforlose]

LeBron is a really unique case though. He WAS Cleveland since he was a kid. And he was a hero to that community to a level that a Tyus could never be.

And he still fled to LA for non-basketball reasons.

Its fans romanticizing players desires to play for their hometowns. For example I used to play Fantasy Football with a guy who grew up in Minnesota, starred at the U and then won 3 rings with the 49ers. We used to ask him if he regretted not playing even a single season for the Vikings, and the answer was no. He acknowledged it would be cool for his family and friends, but once you make the Pros, it stops being about your childhood team and who your idols were and becomes 100% a business.

Tyus wants to start, here he could. Tyus wants to contend, here he could. Tyus wants to be paid starter money, here he could. Also Minnesota hasn’t won a professional men’s championship since 1991. If you think a Minnesota boy born and raised doesn’t want a piece of that first championship in over 30 years then I don’t know what to tell you.

[winforlose]

Maybe if we make the WCF both come back in a “co-starring” role. But I don’t think either wants to come off the bench at this point. Mike probably feels he has another year or two as the man (and he seems to still be salty about how he was minimized in Utah) and Tyus now has a big enough starting sample between MEM and WAS to believe he belongs as a starter.

I also put very little stock in selling athletes on “playing for their home team” as a major selling point. I think that is way more of a fan projection than a real thing.

Maybe, but Bron went back to Cleveland. As for who starts. This year it would probably stay Mike. The thinking being Mike is playing great, Tyus needs to build chemistry, and Mike will rest some games anyway giving Tyus the start. They probably split minutes in the playoffs to keep Mike healthy throughout. Next year it should transition to Tyus as 37 is not a good age to play 30+ minutes. By 25-26 Mike might not even be in the league, and even if he is, who knows where his game will be at. I get wanting to keep Mike happy, but he is where he is. He has had two bad games and missed four of the last 7-8. This is an early warning of needing Mike insurance, and sometimes that makes things complicated.

As long as you're fine with the idea that Mike very well might sign elsewhere if we make a commitment to Tyus, then its all good.

I still vividly remember Billups leaving because all he asked of us to stay was a chance to compete with Brandon for the starting job. McHale refused and Chauncey left.

Like I could easily see Orlando throwing a hefty 2 year offer at Conley to help them take it to the next level and mentor their young PGs.

If you could promise me Mike wouldn’t decline next year, then maybe I would care about that. But 37 is not exactly dependable for starter quality play in the NBA. Mike is having a resurgent year, but he is also slowing down at the midway point. This team is too good to be held hostage to the whims of Mike. Either he wants to stay and try to win a ring/second ring, or he wants to chase money in Orlando with little chance of winning anything.

[jpatrick]

The problem with bringing Tyus and Conley back next year is that they really can’t play together. Both are around 6’ with short wing spans and average, at best, strength and athleticism. If they could play 12-15 minutes per night together, you could justify giving them both money. And the other problem, since they can’t play together, is either okay with only playing 15-18 minutes per night? I think no.

I do think what win/lose said is correct though, we can’t go into next year with Conley being the only playable PG on the team. I don’t think JMac can play more than spot minutes on a good team, so I don’t think he’s a dependable option.

[winforlose]

The problem with bringing Tyus and Conley back next year is that they really can’t play together. Both are around 6’ with short wing spans and average, at best, strength and athleticism. If they could play 12-15 minutes per night together, you could justify giving them both money. And the other problem, since they can’t play together, is either okay with only playing 15-18 minutes per night? I think no.

I do think what win/lose said is correct though, we can’t go into next year with Conley being the only playable PG on the team. I don’t think JMac can play more than spot minutes on a good team, so I don’t think he’s a dependable option.

If you knew you were getting and keeping Tyus, and Mike wasn’t going to resign, do you trade Mike this year? If yes for what, if no do you maybe sign him to a reasonable deal and try to trade Mike to a team of his choosing in 24-25 at the deadline? Or does Mike simply say screw it and walk in free agency?

[Danimals]

I would much rather have Mike and Monte for the next two years than have just Tyus.

Also, I can’t understand the infatuation with getting someone because they were born in MN. It means nothing. Why do people think Tyus would take less money to go to MN? No one in the peak of their career would take less to live in MN. Especially someone with first hand knowledge of living in MN. I think it would take more money for most to consider moving back to MN. The weather really is that bad compared to almost everywhere else. Although maybe that’s changing given the current winter weather?

[BlacJacMac]

I’m still not sure how much I trust Tyus in high leverage situations. Yes, he’s killing it on a horrible team with zero expectations, but his playoff career is ugly (except, ironically for one series against us).

Can he be a starter on a contender? I’m not sure.

[winforlose]

I would much rather have Mike and Monte for the next two years than have just Tyus.

Also, I can’t understand the infatuation with getting someone because they were born in MN. It means nothing. Why do people think Tyus would take less money to go to MN? No one in the peak of their career would take less to live in MN. Especially someone with first hand knowledge of living in MN. I think it would take more money for most to consider moving back to MN. The weather really is that bad compared to almost everywhere else. Although maybe that’s changing given the current winter weather?

You do realize he has family and friends in Minnesota. There is more to where you live than the weather. As for Mike and Monte, who says you get both? Monte is also expiring and might want to start. Of the two I would be confident in Tyus wanting to stay than Monte. As for Mike, if he starts he still probably wouldn’t play starter minutes. He is getting old, and Father Time always catches up. The more we burn him now the less fuel he has for the playoffs.

[BlacJacMac]

I would much rather have Mike and Monte for the next two years than have just Tyus.

Also, I can’t understand the infatuation with getting someone because they were born in MN. It means nothing. Why do people think Tyus would take less money to go to MN? No one in the peak of their career would take less to live in MN. Especially someone with first hand knowledge of living in MN. I think it would take more money for most to consider moving back to MN. The weather really is that bad compared to almost everywhere else. Although maybe that’s changing given the current winter weather?

You do realize he has family and friends in Minnesota. There is more to where you live than the weather. As for Mike and Monte, who says you get both? Monte is also expiring and might want to start. Of the two I would be confident in Tyus wanting to stay than Monte. As for Mike, if he starts he still probably wouldn’t play starter minutes. He is getting old, and Father Time always catches up. The more we burn him now the less fuel he has for the playoffs.

Sure. Night life, clubs, restaurants, activities. Endorsement opportunities. Tax situations. Etc.

But weather absolutely plays a big role - especially since the NBA season is built around winter.

What I've found is the players that really stress loving Minnesota tend to be married guys with kids. Recent examples include Conley, Teague, Tolliver, Thad Young (but his wife HATED it here).

But for a lot of young, single guys, Minnesota is not a destination.

I have tons of family and friends in Minnesota, but I can't imagine moving back for any job.

[winforlose]

I would much rather have Mike and Monte for the next two years than have just Tyus.

Also, I can’t understand the infatuation with getting someone because they were born in MN. It means nothing. Why do people think Tyus would take less money to go to MN? No one in the peak of their career would take less to live in MN. Especially someone with first hand knowledge of living in MN. I think it would take more money for most to consider moving back to MN. The weather really is that bad compared to almost everywhere else. Although maybe that’s changing given the current winter weather?

You do realize he has family and friends in Minnesota. There is more to where you live than the weather. As for Mike and Monte, who says you get both? Monte is also expiring and might want to start. Of the two I would be confident in Tyus wanting to stay than Monte. As for Mike, if he starts he still probably wouldn’t play starter minutes. He is getting old, and Father Time always catches up. The more we burn him now the less fuel he has for the playoffs.

Sure. Night life, clubs, restaurants, activities. Endorsement opportunities. Tax situations. Etc.

But weather absolutely plays a big role - especially since the NBA season is built around winter.

What I've found is the players that really stress loving Minnesota tend to be married guys with kids. Recent examples include Conley, Teague, Tolliver, Thad Young (but his wife HATED it here).

But for a lot of young, single guys, Minnesota is not a destination.

I have tons of family and friends in Minnesota, but I can't imagine moving back for any job.

Yeah I am sure being a career backup in a warm climate with an active night life is way more important than being a starter on a championship contender. I mean of course other contenders are beating down his door to replace guys like Brunson, Doncic, Lillard, Holdiay, SGA, Murray, ect…

[BlacJacMac]

You do realize he has family and friends in Minnesota. There is more to where you live than the weather. As for Mike and Monte, who says you get both? Monte is also expiring and might want to start. Of the two I would be confident in Tyus wanting to stay than Monte. As for Mike, if he starts he still probably wouldn’t play starter minutes. He is getting old, and Father Time always catches up. The more we burn him now the less fuel he has for the playoffs.

Sure. Night life, clubs, restaurants, activities. Endorsement opportunities. Tax situations. Etc.

But weather absolutely plays a big role - especially since the NBA season is built around winter.

What I've found is the players that really stress loving Minnesota tend to be married guys with kids. Recent examples include Conley, Teague, Tolliver, Thad Young (but his wife HATED it here).

But for a lot of young, single guys, Minnesota is not a destination.

I have tons of family and friends in Minnesota, but I can't imagine moving back for any job.

Yeah I am sure being a career backup in a warm climate with an active night life is way more important than being a starter on a championship contender. I mean of course other contenders are beating down his door to replace guys like Brunson, Doncic, Lillard, Holdiay, SGA, Murray, ect…

Again, just because YOU promise him a starting spot doesn't mean the TIMBERWOLVES will. I hope the Wolves look beyond a guy who is killing it for a 9 win team that no other teams "gets up" to play against.

Have you looked at his Playoff numbers? Here are his last 2 Playoff series:

2022: 6 Games, 25 MPG, Shot 35/32.
2023: 6 Games, 20 MPG, Shot 31/16. 22 Assists vs 8 Turnovers.

And he gets hunted on defense in the Playoffs, because while he's a smart team defender that tries hard, he's not a capable man defender and is useless at the PoA.

[winforlose]

Sure. Night life, clubs, restaurants, activities. Endorsement opportunities. Tax situations. Etc.

But weather absolutely plays a big role - especially since the NBA season is built around winter.

What I've found is the players that really stress loving Minnesota tend to be married guys with kids. Recent examples include Conley, Teague, Tolliver, Thad Young (but his wife HATED it here).

But for a lot of young, single guys, Minnesota is not a destination.

I have tons of family and friends in Minnesota, but I can't imagine moving back for any job.

Yeah I am sure being a career backup in a warm climate with an active night life is way more important than being a starter on a championship contender. I mean of course other contenders are beating down his door to replace guys like Brunson, Doncic, Lillard, Holdiay, SGA, Murray, ect…

Again, just because YOU promise him a starting spot doesn't mean the TIMBERWOLVES will. I hope the Wolves look beyond a guy who is killing it for a 9 win team that no other teams "gets up" to play against.

Have you looked at his Playoff numbers? Here are his last 2 Playoff series:

2022: 6 Games, 25 MPG, Shot 35/32.
2023: 6 Games, 20 MPG, Shot 31/16. 22 Assists vs 8 Turnovers.

And he gets hunted on defense in the Playoffs, because while he's a smart team defender that tries hard, he's not a capable man defender and is useless at the PoA.

Tell me who is better. We have limited money, Mike isn’t getting younger, we have no young PGs in the pipeline, and even if we could get a stud we have Ant, KAT and Jaden ahead of them in offensive priority.

As for playoff performance, I think we have a better overall team. I think that takes off some of the pressure on Tyus. As for Mike they are the same size and they can and will hunt Mike on defense just like Tyus. Either Tyus has improved on offense or he didn’t, time will tell.