NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread)

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Who is leading the race for MVP? (players listed in alphabetical order)

Giannis Antetokounmpo
35
12%
Luka Doncic
24
8%
Anthony Edwards
2
1%
Joel Embiid
45
16%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
50
18%
Tyrese Haliburton
0
No votes
Nikola Jokic
98
35%
Kawhi Leonard
6
2%
Jayson Tatum
13
5%
Other (Durant, Booker, Curry, Brunson, Sabonis, Fox, LeBron, Etc.)
10
4%
 
Total votes: 283

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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1881 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Feb 5, 2024 12:43 am

Archx wrote:So to answer "What about On/Off" impact? Well it's easy, just score over 40pts each game and Mavs will be ok :rock:

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I think you need to realize the assumptions you're making in interpreting this data.

Consider this perspective:

Imagine a team plays in a way where a) so much load is placed on a given player a good success rate is dependent on him making enough shots to score 40 points, b) that when he fails to succeed this much in this role the team is actually a below average team, and c) you can count on him to succeed like this roughly 10 times by the time your team has played 40 games.

Does this seem like wise strategy?

Getting back to your perspective, I'd expect you feel the Mavs "needs" Luka to take on this extreme primacy role and that this stat is evidence of it, but I would suggest a) it's weird that any team would need this given that teams didn't need their stars to have such extreme primacy for the vast majority of the history of basketball, and b) it would make more sense to argue that the Mav supporting cast are the exception to the historical precedent if Luka had an outlier On/Off.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1882 » by Archx » Mon Feb 5, 2024 12:45 am

CobraCommander wrote:
Archx wrote:So to answer "What about On/Off" impact? Well it's easy, just score over 40pts each game and Mavs will be ok :rock:

Read on Twitter

But that’s a horrible thought - no one has ever needed to score that much just to win lol - it’s insane that that is even a stat lol

If Luka keeps doing this this way he is never going to get a ring-

They need to get rid of Kidd so that Luka can learn to play team ball.

Like Shaq and Kobe and MJ would say- the others need to give up something and as Phill Jackson would say- you gotta get the stars to trust the process -

Kidd doesn’t know the process and it sucks watching Luka waste his career - cause there is no guarantee that Luka gonna be this good 8 more years


Oh i fully agree. Zach Lowe did the article the other day and said when both Kyrie and Luka play Mavs have 120 ORTG which equals 3rd best offense from Bucks, at that time.

But this hospital team Mavs have right now just can't stay healthy for the past 2 seasons and same problem they had last year could probably happen again and they'll miss the playoffs. And obviously that hurts their offense and specially defense, which was already bad to begin with.

Doctor MJ wrote:
I think you need to realize the assumptions you're making in interpreting this data.

Consider this perspective:

Imagine a team plays in a way where a) so much load is placed on a given player a good success rate is dependent on him making enough shots to score 40 points, b) that when he fails to succeed this much in this role the team is actually a below average team, and c) you can count on him to succeed like this roughly 10 times by the time your team has played 40 games.

Does this seem like wise strategy?

Getting back to your perspective, I'd expect you feel the Mavs "needs" Luka to take on this extreme primacy role and that this stat is evidence of it, but I would suggest a) it's weird that any team would need this given that teams didn't need their stars to have such extreme primacy for the vast majority of the history of basketball, and b) it would make more sense to argue that the Mav supporting cast are the exception to the historical precedent if Luka had an outlier On/Off.


It's fine i was just being sarcastic because there is an ongoing joke in Mavs reddit going on about On/Off stats. Mavs fans know it's a BS when it comes to this team given how it has been constructed in the past few years and how many issues they have with injuries.

Still fact of the matter is record clearly shows Luka has to go super balistic for Mavs to even have chance. And like i said On/Off or +/- are heavily influenced by lineups and how minutes are being redistributed. Seth Curry with +9.9 On/Off right now, i dare you to go there and make a thread how impactfull he is. :D
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1883 » by brettski » Mon Feb 5, 2024 1:17 am

Embiid is out for an extended period after choosing to go for a procedure. I guess we can officially put a line through him and reset the poll now?

Hopefully he gets back with 10 or so games left before the playoffs to find his feet so Philly can still be a post season threat. Have to think being 10 games up on 11th they'll at least make the play in still.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1884 » by Wolfgang630 » Mon Feb 5, 2024 1:19 am

brettski wrote:Embiid is out for an extended period after choosing to go for a procedure. I guess we can officially put a line through him and reset the poll now?

Hopefully he gets back with 10 or so games left before the playoffs to find his feet so Philly can still be a post season threat. Have to think being 10 games up on 11th they'll at least make the play in still.

His season is probably done.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1885 » by Exp0sed » Mon Feb 5, 2024 1:38 am

Packbuckman wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:I dont think guys get blackballed from the MVP race, I just think players priorities change later on. Like dont get me wrong, Giannis is still clearly a top 5 player. And his stats are still crazy elite. And Im not the biggest when it comes to BBRef advanced stats, but you look at his "advanced stats" the last couple years and his MVP years there is a difference.

I think we saw this with LeBron after Miami. Its not that LeBron wasnt capable of winning MVPs, I just dont think that was the focus anymore for him. He took his foot off the gas some in the regular season (again still crazy great stats) and was more focused with playoff stuff. I think Giannis is in the same boat right now.

I wont be shocked to see Jokic in that same boat next year. The one thing that could prevent Jokic from doing that is the lack of star power around him. He really cant afford to take his foot off the gas during the regular season because Denver needs Jokic to be Jokic basically every night, until they get a legit #2 or Murray steps up his game in the regular season.


I don’t know about the advance stuff don’t really pay attention to it been watching Giannis since he became a buck and he is a better player then his mvp seasons. He’s putting up over 30 pts a game on over 60% fg 11.5 rebounds and over 6 assists which no one has ever done like ever! His slow start from the free throw line is only thing from him being right there leading the league in scoring. Dame has been very inconsistent since he came here last nite was his best shooting nite so far but still barely 40% fg. Middleton same very inconsistent coming back from an injury then you add in the coaching debacle with Griffen the only consistent play has been from Giannis to be 2nd in East.


well, you can discard advanced stats all u want but you know..FG% is very misleading. Giannis takes very little 3's compared to other stars and other volume scorers. that's why we look at TS%, guys like SGA and Jokic have higher TS%, they've been scoring more efficiently than Giannis. Jokic obvously averages a few less pts a game (and less shots) because he chooses to, but SGA actually averages more points on higher efficiency and he doesn't have a player like Dame to take away alot of defensive attention and to set him up

on the other side of the ball, Bucks have been worse than average on D, with Lopez (who was basically the DPOY last season), Middelton etc. yes, Dame hurts them there but they still shouldn't be this bad defensively

SGA has a case for DPOY and is def on his way to an all-defense team, OKC has a better record so what exactly is Giannis argument over him rn? things could change ofc, but rn I really don't see it

Giannis is in his prime and he's awesome but both guys have been slightly better (and with less) thus far

perhaps Griffin is at fauly for some of that horrible D (and other issues) but be that as it may, that's where wer'e at now imo
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1886 » by MartyConlonOnTheRun » Mon Feb 5, 2024 2:29 am

It's kind of funny with Dame .... One thread he's a stud that opens everything up for Giannis. In the all star thread a lot of people don't think he's an all star. Probably somewhere in the middle. Yeah it has opened things up for Giannis but is this version of Dame significantly better than maxey or Murray.

Will be interesting if the bucks get hot and remain a top seed after this portion of the schedule. He probably will look more like choice 1c than 3 in the mvp' race
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1887 » by durden_tyler » Mon Feb 5, 2024 2:30 am

i wonder how much money is "wasted", the bets on Embiid for MVP in Vegas and every single sportsbook in the world. LOL
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1888 » by CobraCommander » Mon Feb 5, 2024 2:49 am

Archx wrote:
CobraCommander wrote:
Archx wrote:So to answer "What about On/Off" impact? Well it's easy, just score over 40pts each game and Mavs will be ok :rock:

Read on Twitter

But that’s a horrible thought - no one has ever needed to score that much just to win lol - it’s insane that that is even a stat lol

If Luka keeps doing this this way he is never going to get a ring-

They need to get rid of Kidd so that Luka can learn to play team ball.

Like Shaq and Kobe and MJ would say- the others need to give up something and as Phill Jackson would say- you gotta get the stars to trust the process -

Kidd doesn’t know the process and it sucks watching Luka waste his career - cause there is no guarantee that Luka gonna be this good 8 more years


Oh i fully agree. Zach Lowe did the article the other day and said when both Kyrie and Luka play Mavs have 120 ORTG which equals 3rd best offense from Bucks, at that time.

But this hospital team Mavs have right now just can't stay healthy for the past 2 seasons and same problem they had last year could probably happen again and they'll miss the playoffs. And obviously that hurts their offense and specially defense, which was already bad to begin with.

Doctor MJ wrote:
I think you need to realize the assumptions you're making in interpreting this data.

Consider this perspective:

Imagine a team plays in a way where a) so much load is placed on a given player a good success rate is dependent on him making enough shots to score 40 points, b) that when he fails to succeed this much in this role the team is actually a below average team, and c) you can count on him to succeed like this roughly 10 times by the time your team has played 40 games.

Does this seem like wise strategy?

Getting back to your perspective, I'd expect you feel the Mavs "needs" Luka to take on this extreme primacy role and that this stat is evidence of it, but I would suggest a) it's weird that any team would need this given that teams didn't need their stars to have such extreme primacy for the vast majority of the history of basketball, and b) it would make more sense to argue that the Mav supporting cast are the exception to the historical precedent if Luka had an outlier On/Off.


It's fine i was just being sarcastic because there is an ongoing joke in Mavs reddit going on about On/Off stats. Mavs fans know it's a BS when it comes to this team given how it has been constructed in the past few years and how many issues they have with injuries.

Still fact of the matter is record clearly shows Luka has to go super balistic for Mavs to even have chance. And like i said On/Off or +/- are heavily influenced by lineups and how minutes are being redistributed. Seth Curry with +9.9 On/Off right now, i dare you to go there and make a thread how impactfull he is. :D

Kidd has Curry buried lol

In fact any meaningful conversation about the mavs that doesn’t include asking why is Kidd still the coach is meaningless


Any notion that Luka is a legit MVP candidate when Kidd is just saying “Luka have fun” is meaningless-

Luka went for 73 and espn was pretty much silent - MJ never went for 73...but no one even discussing 73 nearly a week later.


The mvp is Jokic with SGA making a strong showing
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1889 » by CobraCommander » Mon Feb 5, 2024 2:52 am

MartyConlonOnTheRun wrote:It's kind of funny with Dame .... One thread he's a stud that opens everything up for Giannis. In the all star thread a lot of people don't think he's an all star. Probably somewhere in the middle. Yeah it has opened things up for Giannis but is this version of Dame significantly better than maxey or Murray.

Will be interesting if the bucks get hot and remain a top seed after this portion of the schedule. He probably will look more like choice 1c than 3 in the mvp' race

Dame is so bad on defense that I’m not sure he is better than Maxes or Murray - dame played hard in that game against Cleveland that Giannis missed and it was horrible - it was like Portland last year where if dames shot not falling he isn’t explosive enough to take over doing other stuff- Maxey has won without Embiid and led the team. Murray is a champion so I’m not saying anything about him till he is dethroned
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1890 » by iggymcfrack » Mon Feb 5, 2024 2:59 am

Packbuckman wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:I dont think guys get blackballed from the MVP race, I just think players priorities change later on. Like dont get me wrong, Giannis is still clearly a top 5 player. And his stats are still crazy elite. And Im not the biggest when it comes to BBRef advanced stats, but you look at his "advanced stats" the last couple years and his MVP years there is a difference.

I think we saw this with LeBron after Miami. Its not that LeBron wasnt capable of winning MVPs, I just dont think that was the focus anymore for him. He took his foot off the gas some in the regular season (again still crazy great stats) and was more focused with playoff stuff. I think Giannis is in the same boat right now.

I wont be shocked to see Jokic in that same boat next year. The one thing that could prevent Jokic from doing that is the lack of star power around him. He really cant afford to take his foot off the gas during the regular season because Denver needs Jokic to be Jokic basically every night, until they get a legit #2 or Murray steps up his game in the regular season.


I don’t know about the advance stuff don’t really pay attention to it been watching Giannis since he became a buck and he is a better player then his mvp seasons. He’s putting up over 30 pts a game on over 60% fg 11.5 rebounds and over 6 assists which no one has ever done like ever! His slow start from the free throw line is only thing from him being right there leading the league in scoring. Dame has been very inconsistent since he came here last nite was his best shooting nite so far but still barely 40% fg. Middleton same very inconsistent coming back from an injury then you add in the coaching debacle with Griffen the only consistent play has been from Giannis to be 2nd in East.


Rebounds, assists, and especially blocks are all down from his MVP years on a per possession basis. He’s closer to his peak this year than he was last season, but he’s still at a slightly lower level. Competition has gone up as well.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1891 » by CharityStripe34 » Mon Feb 5, 2024 3:32 am

Dame was an All-Star by sheer reputation this season.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1892 » by LordCovington33 » Mon Feb 5, 2024 3:41 am

durden_tyler wrote:i wonder how much money is "wasted", the bets on Embiid for MVP in Vegas and every single sportsbook in the world. LOL

No sympathy for those who have lost big on this. Find some other way to get money.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1893 » by mediocrityrules » Mon Feb 5, 2024 3:45 am

LordCovington33 wrote:
durden_tyler wrote:i wonder how much money is "wasted", the bets on Embiid for MVP in Vegas and every single sportsbook in the world. LOL

No sympathy for those who have lost big on this. Find some other way to get money.


Yeah, I'm in the same boat. If you gamble, you lose. No sympathy at all for anyone gambling on sports and losing.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1894 » by durden_tyler » Mon Feb 5, 2024 3:55 am

LordCovington33 wrote:
durden_tyler wrote:i wonder how much money is "wasted", the bets on Embiid for MVP in Vegas and every single sportsbook in the world. LOL

No sympathy for those who have lost big on this. Find some other way to get money.


Then again, lucky for those who got in the Jokic bet early (very good odds)

So no sympathy for the winners too and who'll get their money in this rather "easy" win? LOL
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1895 » by QPR » Mon Feb 5, 2024 4:07 am

That was a really mature game from SGA.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1896 » by QPR » Mon Feb 5, 2024 4:08 am

Also if you bet on Embiid early in the knowledge there was a minimum games requirement, that is a calculated risk.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1897 » by HotRocks34 » Mon Feb 5, 2024 4:29 am

No big odds changes tonight. Denver win, OKC win and MIL loss.

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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1898 » by Kurtz » Mon Feb 5, 2024 5:28 am

durden_tyler wrote:
LordCovington33 wrote:
durden_tyler wrote:i wonder how much money is "wasted", the bets on Embiid for MVP in Vegas and every single sportsbook in the world. LOL

No sympathy for those who have lost big on this. Find some other way to get money.


Then again, lucky for those who got in the Jokic bet early (very good odds)

So no sympathy for the winners too and who'll get their money in this rather "easy" win? LOL


+450 at the start of the season.
+700 or so for Embiid.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1899 » by Wolfgang630 » Mon Feb 5, 2024 6:51 am

SGA and Jokic won so not much tonight.
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Re: NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 3: Son of Daughter of MVP thread) 

Post#1900 » by B-easy » Mon Feb 5, 2024 12:14 pm

Jokic is in the lead. The plus/minus numbers are much better than SGA.

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