The Gradey Dick Thread Part 2

[Psubs]

That would be every player who has played in the NBA. Other than players coming over from Europe, who are rookies in their mid to late 20's, what player is better defensively when they came into the league, then 3-5 years into the careers?

Klay Thompson
Pascal Siakam

Are you saying those two were better defenders as rookies than 3-5 years into their careers?

Yes, but more like years 1-3 since they were upperclassmen in college. They developed offensively and spent less energy on defense.

[JB7]

You just compared Barnes to shooting, to Gradey to defense. Two completely different skills and progression

Shooting is a skill that many players have improved on over careers.

Defense is hard to grasp. I'm not saying it's not possible. But since this is your argument, the burden of proof is on you. Find me examples of players with defense much improved

That would be every player who has played in the NBA. Other than players coming over from Europe, who are rookies in their mid to late 20's, what player is better defensively when they came into the league, then 3-5 years into the careers?

Is that based on eye test?

This just made me looking at advance stat to check it myself. Just using the example of Caruso I made in my post. He posted 0.9 and 0.7 DBPM first 2 years and jumped up to 2.4 DBPM 3rd year which is really impressive. This showed a great improvement yes, but Caruso was a positive from year 1. I'm interested to find examples that started negative DBPM and became positive. I'm going to look around and find some examples

Your original point was about players with defense improving, compared to shooting. Clearly every player has improved on defense from their rookie season to year 3, 4, 5. Even players that are good defenders when they start in the league become better defenders 3-5 years in, when they understand the game and opposition better. Plus players physically maturing also helps on the defensive end.

Give Gradey some time. He has the potential to improve his D enough that he is not a liability on that end of the court.

[hyper316]

That would be every player who has played in the NBA. Other than players coming over from Europe, who are rookies in their mid to late 20's, what player is better defensively when they came into the league, then 3-5 years into the careers?

Is that based on eye test?

This just made me looking at advance stat to check it myself. Just using the example of Caruso I made in my post. He posted 0.9 and 0.7 DBPM first 2 years and jumped up to 2.4 DBPM 3rd year which is really impressive. This showed a great improvement yes, but Caruso was a positive from year 1. I'm interested to find examples that started negative DBPM and became positive. I'm going to look around and find some examples

Sample size is too small.

He's only appeared in 28 games and averages just under 14 minutes per game. Some of these appearances are garbage time when the game out of hand already and NO ONE plays defence. Fancy analytics mean nothing when the conditions aren't conducive to drawing any meaningful conclusion.

I didn't talk about gradeys advance stats at all, my point was going back in history on players with longer track record to draw meaningful conclusion as you said. Someone brought up Klay and Siakam

[JB7]

Klay Thompson
Pascal Siakam

Are you saying those two were better defenders as rookies than 3-5 years into their careers?

Yes, but more like years 1-3 since they were upperclassmen in college. They developed offensively and spent less energy on defense.

Klay's best years defensively were years 2, 3 and 4. He learned through his first year.

[hyper316]

That would be every player who has played in the NBA. Other than players coming over from Europe, who are rookies in their mid to late 20's, what player is better defensively when they came into the league, then 3-5 years into the careers?

Is that based on eye test?

This just made me looking at advance stat to check it myself. Just using the example of Caruso I made in my post. He posted 0.9 and 0.7 DBPM first 2 years and jumped up to 2.4 DBPM 3rd year which is really impressive. This showed a great improvement yes, but Caruso was a positive from year 1. I'm interested to find examples that started negative DBPM and became positive. I'm going to look around and find some examples

Your original point was about players with defense improving, compared to shooting. Clearly every player has improved on defense from their rookie season to year 3, 4, 5. Even players that are good defenders when they start in the league become better defenders 3-5 years in, when they understand the game and opposition better. Plus players physically maturing also helps on the defensive end.

Give Gradey some time. He has the potential to improve his D enough that he is not a liability on that end of the court.

My original point was about plus defender versus below/average defender. Yes, almost all rookies improve over time. But do they improve from a below average to a plus average defender over 3-5 years. I'm not sure if I can rely on DBPM, if 0 is average,.negative being below and above 0 is plus defender. Maybe someone else who knows more on advance stats for defense can chime in

[JB7]

Klay Thompson
Pascal Siakam

Are you saying those two were better defenders as rookies than 3-5 years into their careers?

Klays DBPM from rookie year

-1.7, -0.2, -0.1, -0.1, -1.6 then tail off in that range

Def improvment

Siakam DBPM
0.7, 1.6, 0.8, 0.5, -0.3,

Back to my initial post, do you see Gradey having a motor like a Caruso, or in your example klay or Siakam to overcome his rookie state and make huge leaps on defense?

First of all, Caruso's game is his D. So comparing Gradey to him is a horrible comparison. The only traits they share are skin colour.

Gradey does give effort, has size and athleticism. He just has a slow first step, is undersized physically (because he just turned 20), and like most young players, just learning the game at the NBA level. He has the potential to improve on his D dramatically, mostly because he has started off so horribly. He'll never be OG or Caruso level D, because he is not built for that, and that is not his game. He just needs to be passable on D.

Other thing to keep in mind with the Klay and Pascal comparisons. Pascal came into the league at age 22 and Klay at age 21.

[hyper316]

Are you saying those two were better defenders as rookies than 3-5 years into their careers?

Klays DBPM from rookie year

-1.7, -0.2, -0.1, -0.1, -1.6 then tail off in that range

Def improvment

Siakam DBPM
0.7, 1.6, 0.8, 0.5, -0.3,

Back to my initial post, do you see Gradey having a motor like a Caruso, or in your example klay or Siakam to overcome his rookie state and make huge leaps on defense?

First of all, Caruso's game is his D. So comparing Gradey to him is a horrible comparison. The only traits they share are skin colour.

Gradey does give effort, has size and athleticism. He just has a slow first step, is undersized physically (because he just turned 20), and like most young players, just learning the game at the NBA level. He has the potential to improve on his D dramatically, mostly because he has started off so horribly. He'll never be OG or Caruso level D, because he is not built for that, and that is not his game. He just needs to be passable on D.

Other thing to keep in mind with the Klay and Pascal comparisons. Pascal came into the league at age 22 and Klay at age 21.

I wasn't comparing Gradey to Caruso in that they are similar player type, but I used Caruso as what the team needs in a 3&D player. Caruso is elite defense and career .439 3pt shooter

My original point was if Dick isn't going to be that 3&D guy, then he wouldn't fit along with BBQ in the starting line up.

Dick would still be a good piece in rotation tho

[bballsparkin]

It's not like Hawkins defence looked great. Heck, Gradey went right by him IIRC.

[hyper316]

It's not like Hawkins defence looked great. Heck, Gradey went right by him IIRC.

NO is deep, Hawkins didn't even play until garbage this game.

Hawkins play well last time against raptors, I'm guessing NO had injuries to give Hawkins minutes last game

Good to see dick had a game high 30 minutes out of both teams

[bballsparkin]

^^Indeed, they are deep. And I think Hawkins will be good. He'll have to work on that defence though.

[hyper316]

Let's not put ceilings on 20 year olds 4 months into their careers...

Also, I wouldn't make roster decisions based on RJ, he can be moved if need be.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

+1. RJ should not be driving any roster decisions.

Okay that's true, if raps can package RJ with picks to upgrade a star SG/SF, then I can see Dick as starter could work

IQ
Dick
Star SG/SF
Barnes
Poeltl

[Potential]

Gradey what a steal. Masai has done it again

[LoveMyRaps]

He won't be able to carve out a long & prosperous NBA career if he doesn't get stronger.

Read on Twitter

Please add 10-15lbs of muscle Gradey.

The shot is there. The intangibles are there. The IQ is there. The potential is there!

[LoveMyRaps]

So... give up on a 23 year old that's been an efficient 20ppg scorer in RJ .... to make room for a 20 year old that's shown absolutely NOTHING in Dick???

Make it make sense...

[pingpongrac]

Is that based on eye test?

This just made me looking at advance stat to check it myself. Just using the example of Caruso I made in my post. He posted 0.9 and 0.7 DBPM first 2 years and jumped up to 2.4 DBPM 3rd year which is really impressive. This showed a great improvement yes, but Caruso was a positive from year 1. I'm interested to find examples that started negative DBPM and became positive. I'm going to look around and find some examples

Your original point was about players with defense improving, compared to shooting. Clearly every player has improved on defense from their rookie season to year 3, 4, 5. Even players that are good defenders when they start in the league become better defenders 3-5 years in, when they understand the game and opposition better. Plus players physically maturing also helps on the defensive end.

Give Gradey some time. He has the potential to improve his D enough that he is not a liability on that end of the court.

My original point was about plus defender versus below/average defender. Yes, almost all rookies improve over time. But do they improve from a below average to a plus average defender over 3-5 years. I'm not sure if I can rely on DBPM, if 0 is average,.negative being below and above 0 is plus defender. Maybe someone else who knows more on advance stats for defense can chime in

DBPM is arguably the worst "advanced" defensive metric when it comes to quantifying how much of an impact a player makes on the defensive end as it simply just takes into account weighted box score stats (and essentially some from the offensive side too). Mediocre at best defenders that rack up defensive rebounds and get assists from a front-court position are continuously rated extremely high in DBPM (Jokic has been #1 the last 3 seasons and Sabonis has been top 10 the last 2 seasons) while some of the best wing defenders in the league are rated as average to above average (OG is at 0.7 DBPM for his career and Jrue is at 0.1 DBPM for his career) because they don't grab many defensive rebounds and/or play positions that certain stats are weighted less heavily.

The argument about players improving their shooting more than defence is a bit of a flawed one too. Almost every player that comes into the league not known as a defensive stalwart struggles out of the gates (and even the defenders do too sometimes) then they improve on that end over their first few years. Gradey might never be a good defender, but the bare bones of being at least a solid team defender (good anticipation, good hands, lots of hustle, etc.) is already showing in his rookie season. As long as he can be in that average to slightly below average range, he should be an impactful player.

[hyper316]

So... give up on a 23 year old that's been an efficient 20ppg scorer in RJ .... to make room for a 20 year old that's shown absolutely NOTHING in Dick???

Make it make sense...

No one is giving up on RJ, if raps can package RJ for an even better player, then maybe Dick has a chance to crack the starting lineup.

I just don't see RJ + Dick as the starting wing tandem

[hyper316]

Your original point was about players with defense improving, compared to shooting. Clearly every player has improved on defense from their rookie season to year 3, 4, 5. Even players that are good defenders when they start in the league become better defenders 3-5 years in, when they understand the game and opposition better. Plus players physically maturing also helps on the defensive end.

Give Gradey some time. He has the potential to improve his D enough that he is not a liability on that end of the court.

My original point was about plus defender versus below/average defender. Yes, almost all rookies improve over time. But do they improve from a below average to a plus average defender over 3-5 years. I'm not sure if I can rely on DBPM, if 0 is average,.negative being below and above 0 is plus defender. Maybe someone else who knows more on advance stats for defense can chime in

DBPM is arguably the worst "advanced" defensive metric when it comes to quantifying how much of an impact a player makes on the defensive end as it simply just takes into account weighted box score stats (and essentially some from the offensive side too). Mediocre at best defenders that rack up defensive rebounds and get assists from a front-court position are continuously rated extremely high in DBPM (Jokic has been #1 the last 3 seasons and Sabonis has been top 10 the last 2 seasons) while some of the best wing defenders in the league are rated as average to above average (OG is at 0.7 DBPM for his career and Jrue is at 0.1 DBPM for his career) because they don't grab many defensive rebounds and/or play positions that certain stats are weighted less heavily.

The argument about players improving their shooting more than defence is a bit of a flawed one too. Almost every player that comes into the league not known as a defensive stalwart struggles out of the gates (and even the defenders do too sometimes) then they improve on that end over their first few years. Gradey might never be a good defender, but the bare bones of being at least a solid team defender (good anticipation, good hands, lots of hustle, etc.) is already showing in his rookie season. As long as he can be in that average to slightly below average range, he should be an impactful player.

Okay thanks for your take on DBPM. Which other advance defensive stats would you prefer?

What you think of DWS?

[LoveMyRaps]

So... give up on a 23 year old that's been an efficient 20ppg scorer in RJ .... to make room for a 20 year old that's shown absolutely NOTHING in Dick???

Make it make sense...

No one is giving up on RJ, if raps can package RJ for an even better player, then maybe Dick has a chance to crack the starting lineup.

I just don't see RJ + Dick as the starting wing tandem

Yeah I don't see it either - but only because Dick does not look like starting material.
The conversation right now shouldn't be about how we can make room for Dick in the starting lineup, but rather what he needs to do to stay in the NBA.

[ForeverTFC]

So... give up on a 23 year old that's been an efficient 20ppg scorer in RJ .... to make room for a 20 year old that's shown absolutely NOTHING in Dick???

Make it make sense...

RJ is efficient? He’s been below league average every season of his career by a pretty decent margin. He doesn’t have the size to play the 3 and can’t shoot well enough to play the 2. He’s not elite with the ball in his hands but doesn’t have a game that thrives in a complementary role either.

I know we’ve been starved for a perimeter player that can get to the rim for so long that any slasher would look good to us, but I didn’t think it was this bad. Hopefully RJ proves me wrong but nothing to date says he’s a guy you build around. At least you can still squint and see Gradey as a complementary player.

[Mak]

RJ/Dick/Scottie/IQ can coexist in a starting 5 sometime down the future, its so early to make statements bout how RJ and Dick wont work together. We are a couple of years at least from really finding that out. We just need more good players under 25 to grow with this group.