Official 2023-2024 Magic Trade Ideas Thread 2.0

[Knightro]

A reminder...

Here is the Magic's salary situation right now and heading into this summer.

Fully Guaranteed Contracts (7): Banchero, Carter, Anthony, Franz, Suggs, Black, Howard
Total: $66M

Team Options/Fully Non-Guaranteed Contracts (4): Isaac, Ingles, Moritz, Houstan
Total: $38.4M

Free Agents (4): Fultz, Harris, Okeke, Bitadze

So again, even if the Magic retain all four of the team option/non-guaranteed deals, they're still only a little over $104M in committed salary.

The salary cap is projected $141M and the salary floor is projected $127M. So the Magic will have to spend at least $23M on SOMETHING just to hit the floor and could spend up to $37M to hit the cap. Both of these numbers would also go up significantly if any of Isaac/Ingles/Moritz are not retained.

[89Magicfan]

Really good comp. Lonzo became an awesome player...but he DID have that court vision and leadership from Day 1. I like that one.

Yeah I don’t see that at all. Lonzo was about as close to JKidd as we have seen anyone be in a while. Black is a smart player but his playmaking isn’t on that level.

Exactly. Lonzo always was elite passer. Black never showed that.

Assists/100 poss (College / Rookie season):
LB 11.7 / 10.1
AB 6.4 / 4.2

A/TO (college / rookie season):
LB 3.1 / 2.8
AB 1.3 / 1.8

Statwise, Lonzo is twice the playmaker AB is. And I believe on court, too.

I put AB in the same mold as Suggs tbh. He might actually be a better offensive player down the road but same weaknesses and strengths for the most part.

[JoshuaPotter]

Seeing as we have what 3 draft picks and are already the youngest team in the league. One would think a move was coming.

Ugh I think we have 4 picks this year.

[Rainwater]

Might just be me but I don see a realistic trade out there, I hope I am wrong though.

Huh? We have cap space, expirings, picks, and areas of needed upgrade with targets that are get-able. That's all you really need for a realistic trade.

For "home run" trades, obviously it would take trading a lot more and people may be more cautious.

Not saying the Magic don’t have the assets to make a trade because they definitely do. But in regards to a big trade or an impactful player to make the team significantly better I don’t know if that is possible.

Don’t get me wrong guys like Sexton or Jones might be available but I don’t know if they will make the Magic significantly better.

Ideally, I would want Simons because he fits what the Magic need however I question if the Blazers are willing to give him up yet.

Reports indicate that Magic are currently not interested in Murray. And Murray is a good player but I don’t know if he fits, he really isn’t a shooter and dude does have a bad attitude. Also add, even if the Hawks do trade Murray I feel like they would still want to compete as Trae is still on the team. So I don’t know if they would be satisfied with just picks, cap space, and young guys unless a third team is involved.

And I didn’t want to believe it before but I am starting to agree there are a lot more buyers than sellers therefore making this trade deadline dryer and quieter when compared to other deadlines.

So my issue is not necessarily the magic assets but the environment. While small trades might be an option, I don’t think the environment is conducive to a big impactful trade for the magic that equates to significant changes.

[eyriq]

A reminder...

Here is the Magic's salary situation right now and heading into this summer.

Fully Guaranteed Contracts (7): Banchero, Carter, Anthony, Franz, Suggs, Black, Howard
Total: $66M

Team Options/Fully Non-Guaranteed Contracts (4): Isaac, Ingles, Moritz, Houstan
Total: $38.4M

Free Agents (4): Fultz, Harris, Okeke, Bitadze

So again, even if the Magic retain all four of the team option/non-guaranteed deals, they're still only a little over $104M in committed salary.

The salary cap is projected $141M and the salary floor is projected $127M. So the Magic will have to spend at least $23M on SOMETHING just to hit the floor and could spend up to $37M to hit the cap. Both of these numbers would also go up significantly if any of Isaac/Ingles/Moritz are not retained.

Nice breakdown. We can go out and sign Claxton.

[eyriq]

It's a really legit question...

Honestly, what do you think AB is in a year or three?

I don't think he's ever a real scoring threat. Potentially elite defender. Makes open threes if you dare him. Decent facilitator but more hockey assists than direct offensive creation (even that's a maybe)...Honestly, if I'm not being a total homer, it's hard to really call him more than a Matisse Thybulle who can bring the ball up...I just don't see how that will ever fit in a starting lineup with Suggs. I do expect more offense from Suggs, but I don't see him getting past 15-17 ppg. If one of them is off the bench, you've got constant defensive intensity - but accept that one comes off the bench or is moved, imo.

Not knocking. Both are valuable roles...but be realistic about a real starting PG role in this NBA.

Lonzo Ball is a comp, a more athletic, less scoring oriented Cade is another comp. He's going to be a stud though, right there as a prospect with Suggs.

Really good comp. Lonzo became an awesome player...but he DID have that court vision and leadership from Day 1. I like that one.

Yeah Lonzo is nice. Magic Johnson is probably a little closer to reality, though.

[basketballRob]

I will repeat what I've said 10-15 times over the last six months...

If they don't make a "buying" trade this week, that's fine, but it ultimately is going to set up a situation where they will literally not have a choice but to spend money this summer.

They're gonna be like 25M below the salary floor (and anywhere from 35M to 60M below the salary cap depending on what they do with their team options) and there are actual penalties for not hitting it now that didn't exist before.

So where is that spending going to come from?

Are they going to retain Fultz on a 1+1 and run it back with basically the exact same group?

I think Fultz is definitely out. Our cap space will be attractive in trades at the draft or in the summer. We could just take on a huge contract from a team that wants to cut payroll.

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[tiderulz]

I doubt fear of Paolo and Franz walking is a factor in the decision making process right now. Besides, Paolo "sees the vision".

where do you get this confidence? players nowadays forcing trades to better teams or bigger markets, i dont have that same confidence.

Which rookie scale contracts are forcing their way to new teams because management failed to put a contender around them?

we only have a couple of years before Franz and Paolo are at option years. They dont have to force out on a rookie deal but as that rookie deal ends.

[p0peye]

A reminder...

Here is the Magic's salary situation right now and heading into this summer.

Fully Guaranteed Contracts (7): Banchero, Carter, Anthony, Franz, Suggs, Black, Howard
Total: $66M

Team Options/Fully Non-Guaranteed Contracts (4): Isaac, Ingles, Moritz, Houstan
Total: $38.4M

Free Agents (4): Fultz, Harris, Okeke, Bitadze

So again, even if the Magic retain all four of the team option/non-guaranteed deals, they're still only a little over $104M in committed salary.

The salary cap is projected $141M and the salary floor is projected $127M. So the Magic will have to spend at least $23M on SOMETHING just to hit the floor and could spend up to $37M to hit the cap. Both of these numbers would also go up significantly if any of Isaac/Ingles/Moritz are not retained.

Not bad. We have who we should have under contract and all the crap can be simply flushed. Probably some of them have to be kept on a short contract as we can't have that kind of turnover in one year, but hopefully we bring some role players that complement Paolo and Franz and are quality starters.

[tiderulz]

Might just be me but I don see a realistic trade out there, I hope I am wrong though.

Huh? We have cap space, expirings, picks, and areas of needed upgrade with targets that are get-able. That's all you really need for a realistic trade.

For "home run" trades, obviously it would take trading a lot more and people may be more cautious.

Not saying the Magic don’t have the assets to make a trade because they definitely do. But in regards to a big trade or an impactful player to make the team significantly better I don’t know if that is possible.

Don’t get me wrong guys like Sexton or Jones might be available but I don’t know if they will make the Magic significantly better.

Ideally, I would want Simons because he fits what the Magic need however I question if the Blazers are willing to give him up yet.

Reports indicate that Magic are currently not interested in Murray. And Murray is a good player but I don’t know if he fits, he really isn’t a shooter and dude does have a bad attitude. Also add, even if the Hawks do trade Murray I feel like they would still want to compete as Trae is still on the team. So I don’t know if they would be satisfied with just picks, cap space, and young guys unless a third team is involved.

And I didn’t want to believe it before but I am starting to agree there are a lot more buyers than sellers therefore making this trade deadline dryer and quieter when compared to other deadlines.

So my issue is not necessarily the magic assets but the environment. While small trades might be an option, I don’t think the environment is conducive to a big impactful trade for the magic that equates to significant changes.

Murray shooting 37% from 3 this year on high volume. Also, defends at a high level (though not as much this year next to turnstile Trae). Ive called for Simons before when he seemed more available in the offseason, but then who plays PG? that is our biggest weakness. I wouldnt mind a guard rotation of Suggs, Black and Simons (or Murray), but then what else is given up to get the player.

[Furinkazan]

where do you get this confidence? players nowadays forcing trades to better teams or bigger markets, i dont have that same confidence.

Which rookie scale contracts are forcing their way to new teams because management failed to put a contender around them?

we only have a couple of years before Franz and Paolo are at option years. They dont have to force out on a rookie deal but as that rookie deal ends.

Imo we shoudnt be wasting any time to get better and we should put up a roster around Paolo and Franz asap...they wont be here forever so to me each year of evaluating taking it slow while they are "DEVELOPING" I see as a wasted year of Paolo timeframe.You can learn in many ways ...we can develop slowly wait for Jet and Blackant to develop...etc... ofc... and you can also learn by getting some nice vets and make deep playoff runs so in 2-3 years if we wont hvae to hear...well what did you expect our guys got no experience in playoffs and such....so its no suprise they lost

[89Magicfan]

Which rookie scale contracts are forcing their way to new teams because management failed to put a contender around them?

we only have a couple of years before Franz and Paolo are at option years. They dont have to force out on a rookie deal but as that rookie deal ends.

Imo we shoudnt be wasting any time to get better and we should put up a roster around Paolo and Franz asap...they wont be here forever so to me each year of evaluating taking it slow while they are "DEVELOPING" I see as a wasted year of Paolo timeframe.You can learn in many ways ...we can develop slowly wait for Jet and Blackant to develop...etc... ofc... and you can also learn by getting some nice vets and make deep playoff runs so in 2-3 years if they we wont hvae to hear...well what did you expect our guys got no experience in playoffs and such....so its no suprise they lost

Yeah that kind of procrastination is what makes you lose your star players.

Gotta stay aggressive if the opportunity is there.

[VFX]

I will repeat what I've said 10-15 times over the last six months...

If they don't make a "buying" trade this week, that's fine, but it ultimately is going to set up a situation where they will literally not have a choice but to spend money this summer.

They're gonna be like 25M below the salary floor (and anywhere from 35M to 60M below the salary cap depending on what they do with their team options) and there are actual penalties for not hitting it now that didn't exist before.

So where is that spending going to come from?

Are they going to retain Fultz on a 1+1 and run it back with basically the exact same group?

If they do this I’m not sure how much Magic basketball I will watch. It would mean they are not a serious organization.

They know what the weaknesses to this team are currently. Resigning Fultz and banking entirely on Black's development is negligence of the highest order.

[Residual-Heat]

as much as i want them to make a move, i have accepted that no trade will happen.

[tooler]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/274561/Lack-Of-Interest-In-2024-Draft-Picks-More-Buyers-Than-Sellers-Slowing-Trade-Market

Probably a bad sign. Then again, would it really matter?

I’m down for a Fultz - Jones swap for some 2nd round picks we’ll never use anyway.

[JoshuaPotter]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/274561/Lack-Of-Interest-In-2024-Draft-Picks-More-Buyers-Than-Sellers-Slowing-Trade-Market

Probably a bad sign. Then again, would it really matter?

I’m down for a Fultz - Jones swap for some 2nd round picks we’ll never use anyway.

We have 4 picks this upcoming year. I do not understand how we cannot find a buyer. Weak draft class or not.

[Black and Blue]

A reminder...

Here is the Magic's salary situation right now and heading into this summer.

Fully Guaranteed Contracts (7): Banchero, Carter, Anthony, Franz, Suggs, Black, Howard
Total: $66M

Team Options/Fully Non-Guaranteed Contracts (4): Isaac, Ingles, Moritz, Houstan
Total: $38.4M

Free Agents (4): Fultz, Harris, Okeke, Bitadze

So again, even if the Magic retain all four of the team option/non-guaranteed deals, they're still only a little over $104M in committed salary.

The salary cap is projected $141M and the salary floor is projected $127M. So the Magic will have to spend at least $23M on SOMETHING just to hit the floor and could spend up to $37M to hit the cap. Both of these numbers would also go up significantly if any of Isaac/Ingles/Moritz are not retained.

Thank you for this breakdown. Really helpful and insightful. I'm sure your posts always take a bit of extra time to construct, but they are appreciated.

It's a foregone conclusion that all of those team options will be picked up, for the salary floor if nothing else but also because each of those players help the team in different ways (Isaac with contract matching and defense, Ingles with leadership, Mo with 2nd unit contributions and brother's relationship, Houstan with 3&D development).

Beyond retaining them, I could see an overpay for Bitadze to stay for 2 years with a team option on the second year. We need to spend money and he is young, provides Carter insurance, and plays well with our stars (unless he gets grumpy at the end of the year due to not playing...which history shows is a possibility with him).

Harris, Fultz, and Okeke are simply not good enough on this particular team and upgrades are absolutely needed at their spots. If any of them are resigned, as someone else said, it does tip the front office's hand that they are puttering around another year and prioritizing locker room culture over current winning (unless one of them surprisingly goes berserk in the playoffs). I personally don't think the plan is for them to be retained, but Harris or Fultz may be the last option if they strike out in free agency entirely. Fultz especially has regressed this year to a level that a blind man could see.

Getting to the salary floor is probably going to be easier than expected by resigning Goga and adding a few players on a front-loaded 2 year contract with a 2nd year option (this front office's favorite thing). I could see that money being spent towards a backup shooting guard and short term veteran starter at PG if AB isn't ready. That is totally not the swing the fans want to see, but is the likeliest option.

Things get SUPER interesting during the mid point of next year and especially AFTER next year. Isaac's contract will be off the books at season's end, freeing up a ton of money. Franz and Suggs will likely be extended. Carter's deal suddenly becomes an expiring. Paolo's gigantic deal will be business priority number one. And perhaps most importantly the team will literally HAVE to prove to both Paolo and the world that they are serious about fielding a competitive team or risk losing their best young prospect since TMac. For all of Weltman's conservative ways, the clock starts ticking extremely loudly at the start of next season for him to make some big decisions with current and future talent to make this team better.

This timeline is what I keep coming back to when I hit my head against the wall and ask why the Magic aren't being aggressive now. Next year is the year to focus on reupping Franz and Suggs, and by preserving the roster/cap flexibility beyond that you give Paolo even more of a reason to resign long term. He knows he will be handsomely rewarded AND has supreme flexibility to recruit others to play with him. That will be the all-in time fans have been hoping for where the team goes shopping. At least I THINK that's the plan. Obviously if an offer that's too good to refuse comes up it will alter things.

[JoshuaPotter]

I will repeat what I've said 10-15 times over the last six months...

If they don't make a "buying" trade this week, that's fine, but it ultimately is going to set up a situation where they will literally not have a choice but to spend money this summer.

They're gonna be like 25M below the salary floor (and anywhere from 35M to 60M below the salary cap depending on what they do with their team options) and there are actual penalties for not hitting it now that didn't exist before.

So where is that spending going to come from?

Are they going to retain Fultz on a 1+1 and run it back with basically the exact same group?

If they do this I’m not sure how much Magic basketball I will watch. It would mean they are not a serious organization.

They know what the weaknesses to this team are currently. Resigning Fultz and banking entirely on Black's development is negligence of the highest order.

Oh well watch for all the 3-5 games for Fultz until his "load management" kicks in. I mentioned it a while back. Fultz might be that "stop gap" PG we have talked about wanting while we wait for picks to develop.

No, Fultz would not be my choice. I would almost rather play Cole at PG, get rid of Fultz and have Black come in off the bench until he develops as the heir apparent.

Problem is, I just really really love Cole in his role.

[eyriq]

A reminder...

Here is the Magic's salary situation right now and heading into this summer.

Fully Guaranteed Contracts (7): Banchero, Carter, Anthony, Franz, Suggs, Black, Howard
Total: $66M

Team Options/Fully Non-Guaranteed Contracts (4): Isaac, Ingles, Moritz, Houstan
Total: $38.4M

Free Agents (4): Fultz, Harris, Okeke, Bitadze

So again, even if the Magic retain all four of the team option/non-guaranteed deals, they're still only a little over $104M in committed salary.

The salary cap is projected $141M and the salary floor is projected $127M. So the Magic will have to spend at least $23M on SOMETHING just to hit the floor and could spend up to $37M to hit the cap. Both of these numbers would also go up significantly if any of Isaac/Ingles/Moritz are not retained.

Thank you for this breakdown. Really helpful and insightful. I'm sure your posts always take a bit of extra time to construct, but they are appreciated.

It's a foregone conclusion that all of those team options will be picked up, for the salary floor if nothing else but also because each of those players help the team in different ways (Isaac with contract matching and defense, Ingles with leadership, Mo with 2nd unit contributions and brother's relationship, Houstan with 3&D development).

Beyond retaining them, I could see an overpay for Bitadze to stay for 2 years with a team option on the second year. We need to spend money and he is young, provides Carter insurance, and plays well with our stars (unless he gets grumpy at the end of the year due to not playing...which history shows is a possibility with him).

Harris, Fultz, and Okeke are simply not good enough on this particular team and upgrades are absolutely needed at their spots. If any of them are resigned, as someone else said, it does tip the front office's hand that they are puttering around another year and prioritizing locker room culture over current winning (unless one of them surprisingly goes berserk in the playoffs). I personally don't think the plan is for them to be retained, but Harris or Fultz may be the last option if they strike out in free agency entirely. Fultz especially has regressed this year to a level that a blind man could see.

Getting to the salary floor is probably going to be easier than expected by resigning Goga and adding a few players on a front-loaded 2 year contract with a 2nd year option (this front office's favorite thing). I could see that money being spent towards a backup shooting guard and short term veteran starter at PG if AB isn't ready. That is totally not the swing the fans want to see, but is the likeliest option.

Things get SUPER interesting during the mid point of next year and especially AFTER next year. Isaac's contract will be off the books at season's end, freeing up a ton of money. Franz and Suggs will likely be extended. Carter's deal suddenly becomes an expiring. Paolo's gigantic deal will be business priority number one. And perhaps most importantly the team will literally HAVE to prove to both Paolo and the world that they are serious about fielding a competitive team or risk losing their best young prospect since TMac. For all of Weltman's conservative ways, the clock starts ticking extremely loudly at the start of next season for him to make some big decisions with current and future talent to make this team better.

This timeline is what I keep coming back to when I hit my head against the wall and ask why the Magic aren't being aggressive now. Next year is the year to focus on reupping Franz and Suggs, and by preserving the roster/cap flexibility beyond that you give Paolo even more of a reason to resign long term. He knows he will be handsomely rewarded AND has supreme flexibility to recruit others to play with him. That will be the all-in time fans have been hoping for where the team goes shopping. At least I THINK that's the plan. Obviously if an offer that's too good to refuse comes up it will alter things.

Great analysis. Helps put the low level of urgency into perspective. Weltman doesn't need to rush things yet, and this may be why he ultimately doesn't make a move to upgrade Harris or Fultz at the deadline.

[yoyojw17]

I will repeat what I've said 10-15 times over the last six months...

If they don't make a "buying" trade this week, that's fine, but it ultimately is going to set up a situation where they will literally not have a choice but to spend money this summer.

They're gonna be like 25M below the salary floor (and anywhere from 35M to 60M below the salary cap depending on what they do with their team options) and there are actual penalties for not hitting it now that didn't exist before.

So where is that spending going to come from?

Are they going to retain Fultz on a 1+1 and run it back with basically the exact same group?

If they do this I’m not sure how much Magic basketball I will watch. It would mean they are not a serious organization.

They know what the weaknesses to this team are currently. Resigning Fultz and banking entirely on Black's development is negligence of the highest order.

Why? Cuz you say so? lol

Black has shown to do well in his rookie year. We don't know about his usage... restrictions.... etc. Similar to Fultz.... he has stained in the predestined lane because this is Paolo and Franz's growth evaluation. the ones with the 30% and 26% usage rates. There isn't much room for anyone else at this point. haha. Now.... in my opinion these numbers will be balanced out more and more as time goes by and we will see AB shine more and more. IF they have confidence in his production and see him as their guard of the future.... why put an expensive door in the way. As they have said... they are trying to win... but their focus is not short-term....but long term.

So unless a homerun trade becomes available... I would NOT be surprised if Knightro is correct!!