2024 weak draft pick = ? In 2025 pick? Poll

[Indeed]

I actually remember this draft to be pretty interesting. Yes there was no Wemby or Zion, but still a lot of high level Talent.
This year there is no buzz. People already talking about next years Talent.

Sorry, I don't think there is depth in this draft as well. The rotational players are in the lottery, which usually were in the mid to late 1st in a regular class. A strong draft, you may see some rotational players in the early 2nd round.

Think about it. If everyone believes this is a weak class, then everyone who has a chance to declare is declaring, because there's a better chance to get picked higher since there may not be a consensus top 5 in 2024. Which unless you believe in the 2025 class aside from Cooper Flagg, makes it weaker since some guys you expected to return to college or stay in Europe another year, declared early. Who else do you care about in 2025 besides Flagg? Now, that is a rhetorical question because you may not have familiarized yourself with the other players in his HS/international class yet.

Quantity is not quality.
The wiretap says it all, there is a reason for lack of interest in 2024 draft picks: https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/274561/Lack-Of-Interest-In-2024-Draft-Picks-More-Buyers-Than-Sellers-Slowing-Trade-Market

[Chuck Everett]

Sorry, I don't think there is depth in this draft as well. The rotational players are in the lottery, which usually were in the mid to late 1st in a regular class. A strong draft, you may see some rotational players in the early 2nd round.

Think about it. If everyone believes this is a weak class, then everyone who has a chance to declare is declaring, because there's a better chance to get picked higher since there may not be a consensus top 5 in 2024. Which unless you believe in the 2025 class aside from Cooper Flagg, makes it weaker since some guys you expected to return to college or stay in Europe another year, declared early. Who else do you care about in 2025 besides Flagg? Now, that is a rhetorical question because you may not have familiarized yourself with the other players in his HS/international class yet.

Quantity is not quality.
The wiretap says it all, there is a reason for lack of interest in 2024 draft picks: https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/274561/Lack-Of-Interest-In-2024-Draft-Picks-More-Buyers-Than-Sellers-Slowing-Trade-Market

If I'm able to draft an OG Anunoby in the 20's or a Jaime Jaquez Jr at 17, why do I care that the top of the draft isn't filled with "quality?"

[Indeed]

Think about it. If everyone believes this is a weak class, then everyone who has a chance to declare is declaring, because there's a better chance to get picked higher since there may not be a consensus top 5 in 2024. Which unless you believe in the 2025 class aside from Cooper Flagg, makes it weaker since some guys you expected to return to college or stay in Europe another year, declared early. Who else do you care about in 2025 besides Flagg? Now, that is a rhetorical question because you may not have familiarized yourself with the other players in his HS/international class yet.

Quantity is not quality.
The wiretap says it all, there is a reason for lack of interest in 2024 draft picks: https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/274561/Lack-Of-Interest-In-2024-Draft-Picks-More-Buyers-Than-Sellers-Slowing-Trade-Market

If I'm able to draft an OG Anunoby in the 20's or a Jaime Jaquez Jr at 17, why do I care that the top of the draft isn't filled with "quality?"

Because the chance of drafting them from the regular class of 30% down to 5% chance. They are most likely gone in the top 12 on this draft

Maybe you are happy with Flynn 2.0

[Yeezus_]

Let's be real. None of us really know the answer because we don't have the data, research, analysis real scouts have.

[aminiaturebuddha]

What are the chances that with our talent and coach that we finish in top 6 in back to back years, despite not trying to do so. When does it convert to two seconds?

top 6 protected '24
top 6 protected '25
top 6 protected '26
converts to two seconds if not converted.

Not to mention that the longer we need to wait to convey the pick, the longer it handcuffs the team in terms of future trades that can be made involving draft picks.

We all want the instant gratification of knowing which young prospects we'll end up with sooner rather than later, and the chance to get a jump on their development. But the lack of star quality at the top of the 2024 draft, and the fact that it limits flexibility for management to build the team how they want, is why I'm still leaning towards wanting to convey the pick this year, even if there are a couple of players in the top 5 that I like.

[billy_hoyle]

2021 was a 4 man draft yet Wagner, Sengun, Trey Murphy, Jalen Johnson, Cam Thomas, Herb Jones, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, Jericho Sims and Aaron Wighins were all drafted afterwards. Every year, the pundits call the draft weak. Teams need to work these guys out and see who can fit into what they do.

Not really. No one was saying the 2021 draft was weak. Everyone thought there was All-Star talent at the top (they just thought it was Cade, Mobley, Green, and Suggs). And that's the difference with this draft, and most others called "weak". It's not that there isn't depth with rotation players available, it's just that no one sees any sure fire All-Stars (let alone All-NBA or future MVPs like Wemby) at the top.

Yep. If only half of this board could figue this out.

I think Check Everett's point is that draft prognosticators are very commonly wrong, and they usually default to 'the draft is weak'.

As said, the 2021 draft wasn't considered weak, and has produced zero all-stars. Not saying that it won't eventually, but that really isn't a great example of prognosticators getting drafts 'right'. The arguable best player in that draft was taken 16th.

I remember the Bargnani draft (2006), the Kyrie draft (2011) and the Anthony Bennett (2013) draft were also considered weak.

The distribution of all-stars in these drafts might be very telling on what to expect in this draft. Multiple posters have pointed out how these 'weak drafts' have produced more talent later in the draft.

Results:
For 2006 - 2, 6, 21, 24, 47
For 2011 - 1, 9, 11, 15, 16, 30, 60
For 2013 - 2, 15, 27

Looks like there are typically just as many great players somewhat evenly distributed throughout these weak drafts.

Might make sense to get some more mid to late firsts.

[Johnny Bball]

Not really. No one was saying the 2021 draft was weak. Everyone thought there was All-Star talent at the top (they just thought it was Cade, Mobley, Green, and Suggs). And that's the difference with this draft, and most others called "weak". It's not that there isn't depth with rotation players available, it's just that no one sees any sure fire All-Stars (let alone All-NBA or future MVPs like Wemby) at the top.

Yep. If only half of this board could figue this out.

I think Check Everett's point is that draft prognosticators are very commonly wrong, and they usually default to 'the draft is weak'.

As said, the 2021 draft wasn't considered weak, and has produced zero all-stars. Not saying that it won't eventually, but that really isn't a great example of prognosticators getting drafts 'right'. The arguable best player in that draft was taken 16th.

I remember the Bargnani draft (2006), the Kyrie draft (2011) and the Anthony Bennett (2013) draft were also considered weak.

The distribution of all-stars in these drafts might be very telling on what to expect in this draft. Multiple posters have pointed out how these 'weak drafts' have produced more talent later in the draft.

Results:
For 2006 - 2, 6, 21, 24, 47
For 2011 - 1, 9, 11, 15, 16, 30, 60
For 2013 - 2, 15, 27

Looks like there are typically just as many great players somewhat evenly distributed throughout these weak drafts.

Might make sense to get some more mid to late firsts.

I've recently read some people thought last years draft was weak which I think was pretty much hindsight, not having read that before the draft. You?

I think we are stacked with as many firsts and we might have roster spots next year though. And I think the news that nobody wants 2024 picks is beause of the Raptors and other sellers in similar spots, and that everyone is trying to pry 2025 picks, which they just aren't going to get.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Not really. No one was saying the 2021 draft was weak. Everyone thought there was All-Star talent at the top (they just thought it was Cade, Mobley, Green, and Suggs). And that's the difference with this draft, and most others called "weak". It's not that there isn't depth with rotation players available, it's just that no one sees any sure fire All-Stars (let alone All-NBA or future MVPs like Wemby) at the top.

Yep. If only half of this board could figue this out.

I think Check Everett's point is that draft prognosticators are very commonly wrong, and they usually default to 'the draft is weak'.

As said, the 2021 draft wasn't considered weak, and has produced zero all-stars. Not saying that it won't eventually, but that really isn't a great example of prognosticators getting drafts 'right'. The arguable best player in that draft was taken 16th.

I remember the Bargnani draft (2006), the Kyrie draft (2011) and the Anthony Bennett (2013) draft were also considered weak.

The distribution of all-stars in these drafts might be very telling on what to expect in this draft. Multiple posters have pointed out how these 'weak drafts' have produced more talent later in the draft.

Results:
For 2006 - 2, 6, 21, 24, 47
For 2011 - 1, 9, 11, 15, 16, 30, 60
For 2013 - 2, 15, 27

Looks like there are typically just as many great players somewhat evenly distributed throughout these weak drafts.

Might make sense to get some more mid to late firsts.

It's way too early to make that kind of determination. But I think there's still a very good chance that there will be multiple All-Stars from that draft, which would absolutely mean that it wasn't a weak draft.

And besides, the part I was quoting from Everett and was responding to was precisely him saying that people said the 2021 draft was weak. So if you believe he meant the opposite, that was a strange way for him to say it.

[billy_hoyle]

Yep. If only half of this board could figue this out.

I think Check Everett's point is that draft prognosticators are very commonly wrong, and they usually default to 'the draft is weak'.

As said, the 2021 draft wasn't considered weak, and has produced zero all-stars. Not saying that it won't eventually, but that really isn't a great example of prognosticators getting drafts 'right'. The arguable best player in that draft was taken 16th.

I remember the Bargnani draft (2006), the Kyrie draft (2011) and the Anthony Bennett (2013) draft were also considered weak.

The distribution of all-stars in these drafts might be very telling on what to expect in this draft. Multiple posters have pointed out how these 'weak drafts' have produced more talent later in the draft.

Results:
For 2006 - 2, 6, 21, 24, 47
For 2011 - 1, 9, 11, 15, 16, 30, 60
For 2013 - 2, 15, 27

Looks like there are typically just as many great players somewhat evenly distributed throughout these weak drafts.

Might make sense to get some more mid to late firsts.

It's way too early to make that kind of determination. But I think there's still a very good chance that there will be multiple All-Stars from that draft, which would absolutely mean that it wasn't a weak draft.

And besides, the part I was quoting from Everett and was responding to was precisely him saying that people said the 2021 draft was weak. So if you believe he meant the opposite, that was a strange way for him to say it.

He was saying the 2021 class was considered a 4 man draft (Cade, Green, Mobley, Suggs). Draftniks called the rest of the draft 'weak'.

In reality, the best players have come from outside those four (Barnes, Sengun and Wagner - although Mobley certainly has a claim to be a top pick still).

He just meant they are almost always wrong. The back end of the 2021 draft wasn't weak, nor was the top end 'strong', filled with no doubt all-stars, which is what I was pointing out. It's three years later, and not a single one of these guys has made an all star team. Guys like LeMelo, Ant, Zion, Ja, Paolo, Tyrese, have all made all star games from other recent drafts.

[billy_hoyle]

Yep. If only half of this board could figue this out.

I think Check Everett's point is that draft prognosticators are very commonly wrong, and they usually default to 'the draft is weak'.

As said, the 2021 draft wasn't considered weak, and has produced zero all-stars. Not saying that it won't eventually, but that really isn't a great example of prognosticators getting drafts 'right'. The arguable best player in that draft was taken 16th.

I remember the Bargnani draft (2006), the Kyrie draft (2011) and the Anthony Bennett (2013) draft were also considered weak.

The distribution of all-stars in these drafts might be very telling on what to expect in this draft. Multiple posters have pointed out how these 'weak drafts' have produced more talent later in the draft.

Results:
For 2006 - 2, 6, 21, 24, 47
For 2011 - 1, 9, 11, 15, 16, 30, 60
For 2013 - 2, 15, 27

Looks like there are typically just as many great players somewhat evenly distributed throughout these weak drafts.

Might make sense to get some more mid to late firsts.

I've recently read some people thought last years draft was weak which I think was pretty much hindsight, not having read that before the draft. You?

I think we are stacked with as many firsts and we might have roster spots next year though. And I think the news that nobody wants 2024 picks is beause of the Raptors and other sellers in similar spots, and that everyone is trying to pry 2025 picks, which they just aren't going to get.

I never read that last year's draft was weak at any point prior to the draft. I think people liked the talent. Obviously the top of the draft had Wemby as the headliner, but the rest was pretty typical IMO.

Just typical hindsight talk (i.e draft weak after the top 3) to justify people making incorrect predictions on something that is historically very difficult to predict.

[aminiaturebuddha]

I think Check Everett's point is that draft prognosticators are very commonly wrong, and they usually default to 'the draft is weak'.

As said, the 2021 draft wasn't considered weak, and has produced zero all-stars. Not saying that it won't eventually, but that really isn't a great example of prognosticators getting drafts 'right'. The arguable best player in that draft was taken 16th.

I remember the Bargnani draft (2006), the Kyrie draft (2011) and the Anthony Bennett (2013) draft were also considered weak.

The distribution of all-stars in these drafts might be very telling on what to expect in this draft. Multiple posters have pointed out how these 'weak drafts' have produced more talent later in the draft.

Results:
For 2006 - 2, 6, 21, 24, 47
For 2011 - 1, 9, 11, 15, 16, 30, 60
For 2013 - 2, 15, 27

Looks like there are typically just as many great players somewhat evenly distributed throughout these weak drafts.

Might make sense to get some more mid to late firsts.

It's way too early to make that kind of determination. But I think there's still a very good chance that there will be multiple All-Stars from that draft, which would absolutely mean that it wasn't a weak draft.

And besides, the part I was quoting from Everett and was responding to was precisely him saying that people said the 2021 draft was weak. So if you believe he meant the opposite, that was a strange way for him to say it.

He was saying the 2021 class was considered a 4 man draft (Cade, Green, Mobley, Suggs). Draftniks called the rest of the draft 'weak'.

In reality, the best players have come from outside those four (Barnes, Sengun and Wagner - although Mobley certainly has a claim to be a top pick still).

He just meant they are almost always wrong. The back end of the 2021 draft wasn't weak, nor was the top end 'strong', filled with no doubt all-stars, which is what I was pointing out. It's three years later, and not a single one of these guys has made an all star team. Guys like LeMelo, Ant, Zion, Ja, Paolo, Tyrese, have all made all star games from other recent drafts.

Aside from Paolo, all of those guys came from drafts before 2021 and two are first timers this year, so I'm not sure that means anything. Also, Scottie Barnes was just named an All-Star, so there's one from the 2021 draft.

And sure, if you're saying that people who look at drafts don't hit 100% on who will be the best players from each draft, well of course. I guess you're right. But they're often quite right on the overall quality of a draft class. 2021 wasn't seen as a weak draft (even outside the top 4) and it hasn't been. However, 2013 and 2014 were both seen to be weak going in, and ended up being fairly weak.

2024 is seen to be fairly weak at the top. I don't think it's helpful to just dismiss that opinion by people who follow the prospects closely just because "no one knows anything" and they don't always get everything right.

[billy_hoyle]

It's way too early to make that kind of determination. But I think there's still a very good chance that there will be multiple All-Stars from that draft, which would absolutely mean that it wasn't a weak draft.

And besides, the part I was quoting from Everett and was responding to was precisely him saying that people said the 2021 draft was weak. So if you believe he meant the opposite, that was a strange way for him to say it.

He was saying the 2021 class was considered a 4 man draft (Cade, Green, Mobley, Suggs). Draftniks called the rest of the draft 'weak'.

In reality, the best players have come from outside those four (Barnes, Sengun and Wagner - although Mobley certainly has a claim to be a top pick still).

He just meant they are almost always wrong. The back end of the 2021 draft wasn't weak, nor was the top end 'strong', filled with no doubt all-stars, which is what I was pointing out. It's three years later, and not a single one of these guys has made an all star team. Guys like LeMelo, Ant, Zion, Ja, Paolo, Tyrese, have all made all star games from other recent drafts.

Aside from Paolo, all of those guys came from drafts before 2021 and two are first timers this year, so I'm not sure that means anything. Also, Scottie Barnes was just named an All-Star, so there's one from the 2021 draft.

And sure, if you're saying that people who look at drafts don't hit 100% on who will be the best players from each draft, well of course. I guess you're right. But they're often quite right on the overall quality of a draft class. 2021 wasn't seen as a weak draft (even outside the top 4) and it hasn't been. However, 2013 and 2014 were both seen to be weak going in, and ended up being fairly weak.

2024 is seen to be fairly weak at the top. I don't think it's helpful to just dismiss that opinion by people who follow the prospects closely just because "no one knows anything" and they don't always get everything right.

Congrats to Scottie (and Sengun had an all star calibre season too).

I more meant the top 4 of the 2021 draft. I think people were saying it was weak after the top 4 (from memory).

The other guys are from previous drafts, but Zion was an all star his second year, same with Ball. All I'm saying is Cade, Green, Mobley and Suggs haven't been relatively strong. They could all make all star teams in the future, I'm not saying that either.

Purely saying that professional scouts and draft prognosticators get that sort of tiered impact wrong all the time.

Do I think 2024 vs 2025 will have a completely different number of top end talent. No.

Do I think scouts feel more comfortable calling Flagg and Ace likely future all stars. Yep.

I think those two look like good bets to be impact players too. That makes a top pick in the 2025 draft a surer thing than a top pick in 2024. Does that mean we would rather have a 6th pick in 2025 rather than the 8th pick in 2024, not necessarily.

[aminiaturebuddha]

He was saying the 2021 class was considered a 4 man draft (Cade, Green, Mobley, Suggs). Draftniks called the rest of the draft 'weak'.

In reality, the best players have come from outside those four (Barnes, Sengun and Wagner - although Mobley certainly has a claim to be a top pick still).

He just meant they are almost always wrong. The back end of the 2021 draft wasn't weak, nor was the top end 'strong', filled with no doubt all-stars, which is what I was pointing out. It's three years later, and not a single one of these guys has made an all star team. Guys like LeMelo, Ant, Zion, Ja, Paolo, Tyrese, have all made all star games from other recent drafts.

Aside from Paolo, all of those guys came from drafts before 2021 and two are first timers this year, so I'm not sure that means anything. Also, Scottie Barnes was just named an All-Star, so there's one from the 2021 draft.

And sure, if you're saying that people who look at drafts don't hit 100% on who will be the best players from each draft, well of course. I guess you're right. But they're often quite right on the overall quality of a draft class. 2021 wasn't seen as a weak draft (even outside the top 4) and it hasn't been. However, 2013 and 2014 were both seen to be weak going in, and ended up being fairly weak.

2024 is seen to be fairly weak at the top. I don't think it's helpful to just dismiss that opinion by people who follow the prospects closely just because "no one knows anything" and they don't always get everything right.

Congrats to Scottie (and Sengun had an all star calibre season too).

I more meant the top 4 of the 2021 draft. I think people were saying it was weak after the top 4 (from memory).

The other guys are from previous drafts, but Zion was an all star his second year, same with Ball. All I'm saying is Cade, Green, Mobley and Suggs haven't been relatively strong. They could all make all star teams in the future, I'm not saying that either.

Purely saying that professional scouts and draft prognosticators get that sort of tiered impact wrong all the time.

Do I think 2024 vs 2025 will have a completely different number of top end talent. No.

Do I think scouts feel more comfortable calling Flagg and Ace likely future all stars. Yep.

I think those two look like good bets to be impact players too. That makes a top pick in the 2025 draft a surer thing than a top pick in 2024. Does that mean we would rather have a 6th pick in 2025 rather than the 8th pick in 2024, not necessarily.

I actually don't remember anyone saying that. Some thought it dropped off a bit after the top 4, but I don't remember anyone saying it was weak. People still thought there were good talents to be found after that with guys like Scottie, Kuminga, Franz, Giddey, Moody, etc, just that they all had some holes in their games.

But we're talking in circles a bit. I think you're right that it's very hard at this point to determine how the 2025 draft will turn out compared to the 2024 draft. But I still think it's true that the 2024 draft has less star quality and star potential than several previous drafts.

[Ado05]

They'll keep their pick both years.

[Purple+Black]

we keeping both the 2024 & 2025 picks.

Doubt it, given our FO’s track record. Also, they will not want to cut deeply into Scottie’s time with us by going through a full prolonged rebuild starting in his 3rd season. That’s the impression I get.

We also aren’t as bad as some of the other tanking teams when fully healthy

It doesn’t matter what the FO wants.
The team is garbage.
Even Barnes is looking more limited than many thought. We’re not signing any good free agents. We’re keeping this team mostly and attaching 2-3 draft picks to it and we’ll continue the losing momentum (unless they hit on some draft picks in 2024 or 2025).

Sounds odd to call a 2-way, 22 year old named to the All-Star team who is a legitimate threat for a triple double every game he plays “limited”.

I mean, he was always going to be a work in progress and we drafted him for his untapped potential, which is still quite immense. The kid filled the biggest hole in his game making historic strides in his shooting. Silly to think the other holes won’t be filled with each offseason he spends honing his craft.

If you remember DeRozan or Siakam as rookies and their growth over time, you’ll know that development is a significant contributor to a player unlocking their potential. I’m certain that Scottie has more untapped potential than both of those players and has contributed at a higher level than both of them at his age, there is a clear difference in the level of prospect he is. At this point he is the best player to come out of the 2021 draft.

[kalel123]

All I know is, if we do indeed keep this year's pick and with the core guys we have, the protection continues to be bad enough that something would have to go seriously wrong with some of those guys development to not convey the pick again next year (i.e. be one of 5-6 worst teams in the entire league). Unless we get very, very lucky.

Don't know what's worse; missing out on a key opportunity to add to the core in a deeper 2025 draft lottery or having something go wrong enough in current core's development (not to mention Dick and '24 picks) to not have to convey the pick for 2 straight years.

[RandomRaptorfan]

I don't mind 2020 level weak, lets just hope it's not 2013 level weak

[billy_hoyle]

All I know is, if we do indeed keep this year's pick and with the core guys we have, the protection continues to be bad enough that something would have to go seriously wrong with some of those guys development to not convey the pick again next year (i.e. be one of 5-6 worst teams in the entire league). Unless we get very, very lucky.

Don't know what's worse; missing out on a key opportunity to add to the core in a deeper 2025 draft lottery or having something go wrong enough in current core's development (not to mention Dick and '24 picks) to not have to convey the pick for 2 straight years.

Ya. Kinda damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Sucks....but, what if it's a Memphis situation with crazy injuries (you already highlighted a play-in loss with massive lottery luck).

One injury to Barnes and we are a bottom feeder in all likelihood. So, a broken bone would be the luckiest and least likely to hamper long term injury.

[mdenny]

2021 was a 4 man draft yet Wagner, Sengun, Trey Murphy, Jalen Johnson, Cam Thomas, Herb Jones, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, Jericho Sims and Aaron Wighins were all drafted afterwards. Every year, the pundits call the draft weak. Teams need to work these guys out and see who can fit into what they do.

Not really. No one was saying the 2021 draft was weak. Everyone thought there was All-Star talent at the top (they just thought it was Cade, Mobley, Green, and Suggs). And that's the difference with this draft, and most others called "weak". It's not that there isn't depth with rotation players available, it's just that no one sees any sure fire All-Stars (let alone All-NBA or future MVPs like Wemby) at the top.

I actually remember this draft to be pretty interesting. Yes there was no Wemby or Zion, but still a lot of high level Talent.
This year there is no buzz. People already talking about next years Talent.

I don't know what Chuck is talking about. Scouts very rarely identify a draft as being weak. And the 2021 draft had tons of buzz with scouts saying it had lots of depth.

[PushDaRock]

I have this draft rated worse than the 2000 Class. If you look at the production from that class versus this one and it's not even close. If there was anyone as productive as Kenyon Martin or Stromile Swift were, they would be the consensus number 1 pick.