lessthanjake wrote:
That is factually inaccurate. Using plus-minus data from Statsmuse and minutes and team MOV data from basketball-reference, we can see that, from 2006-2021, LeBron James’s playoff on-off per 48 minutes was +12.95 (it was +1310 in 11,035 minutes on, for a +5.70 ON, and -274 in 1,813 minutes off, for a -7.25 OFF). That is not “near +15.” Of course, perhaps we can give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant to say 2007-2021, since the 2006 playoffs bring down LeBron’s numbers in this regard and it is actually 2007-2021 that is LeBron’s best span in playoff on-off. But even then, from 2007-2021, LeBron’s on-off per 48 minutes was +13.84. I would say it is materially misleading to call that “near +15.” Jordan’s career playoff on-off could perhaps accurately be described as “near +15,” but even picking out his best span LeBron’s could not. Not sure if the misleading statement was intentional, but either way it is worth correcting here.
Hey jake! Agreed it's not +15
Just for another timeframe, we could also compare over 14-year spans. Since Jordan played over a 14 year span with 1 missed year (1985–1998 missing 1995), we might look at LeBron over a 14 year span with 1 missed year (2007–2020 missing 2019 or 2008–2021 missing 2019).
Per Djoker's chart, Jordan's +14.6.
2007–2020 LeBron: +13.02
2008–2021 LeBron: +12.625
Details:
. One small detail: looks like we get very tiny disagreements between pbpstats and statsmuse, such that pbpstats gives LeBron a +5 better total on score in this span. In the Miami span for example, statues says his team was +420 total when he was on (
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=what+was+lebron%27s+total+plus+minus+in+the+playoffs+from+2010-11+to+2013-14) while pbpstats says he was +424 (
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy/nba?0Exactly1OnFloor=2544&TeamId=1610612748&Season=2010-11,2011-12,2012-13,2013-14&SeasonType=Playoffs&Type=Team). Really quite small stuff so won't make a big difference, but one wonders where the disagreement comes from. Pbpstats is the more respected website so I would have a slight preference to trust it first, but without knowing what the disagreement comes from, it's hard to tell for sure, and there's definitely a 'ease of usability' benefit to the quicker search from statmuse.
Can we take much from this? Not so sure. Me personally, I have peak/prime Jordan slightly over LeBron with LeBron having better longevity, and this on/off data definitely supports that. Still, they're close, and there's plenty of limits and uncertainties with on/off, so it's far from the end-all and be-all.
Hoping this doesn't just turn into another LBJ MJ thread, so wrapping in some other players...
eminence wrote:Djoker wrote:eminence wrote:Ya know, I'm not fully up on what these numbers would look like /48 for other notables (Shaq/Duncan/KG/LeBron/Steph maybe?).
Anybody have any of those sitting around?
Here you go!
Would you mind sharing a RS one as well?
Great stuff Djoker!
Agreed RS would be interesting. Some sort of more restrictive timespan (e.g. best 8, 10, 12, or 15 years, or whatever) to decrease the unequal effects of differing number of non-prime years would also be cool, but I'm sure these plots take a lot of work, so no worries if not Djoker!
In the plus-minus era, LeBron, Garnett, and Curry seem to dominate the on/off data in the regular season, so it's interesting that they also dominate in the playoffs. Curry and Garnett's playoff reputation vs the other top 15 candidates (Kobe/Jokic/Shaq) would give you the impression that Curry and Garnett would drop off more, but they're still clearly a level up.
Curry's two worst playoff on/off's are in his injured years (2016 and 2018), which would have otherwise been right in his 4-year peak stretch... I wonder how much higher his would have been wth just two fewer injuries. Likewise Garnett was on pretty putrid teams right between two of his best seasons in 04 and 08, and missed the playoffs in all 3 years. Alas.
Shaq and Duncan look close in on/off in career regular season (slight advantage Shaq in available data... but missing some prime and pre-prime seasons for Shaq), but Shaq seems to jump a level above Duncan in the playoffs. Indeed over 10 year primes among available top ~25 candidates, Shaq is one of the 2 biggest improvers in playoff on/off. Not sure how much this is due to the resilience of Shaq's playstyle, vs having him taking days off in the regular season (e.g. due to poorer conditioning/effort) and fully committing in the playoffs. But it's interesting nonetheless.