2023-24 Season Discussion and Speculation 5 - the calm before the storm

[King4Day]

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2024/2/6/24061204/phoenix-suns-trade-deadline-primer-what-you-need-to-know

Everyone should give the link a click, even if you read it here. Just to support the page.

[King4Day]

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2024/2/6/24061204/phoenix-suns-trade-deadline-primer-what-you-need-to-know

Draft Capital
Now let’s look at what Phoenix has in the ‘ole draft pick department. Here is what the Suns have available in that bank:

Lotta red there.

We have a 2026 2nd from Detroit, Milwaukee or Orlando (least favorable) and a 2030 1st (least favorable of Washington, Memphis and Phoenix)

Other than that, good post.

Not sure why the SAS pick is even in there. It's protected unless they finish like 5th best in the league, or better. That pick will not convey and I imagine it goes away if not conveyed. We really only have 3 2nd's to play around with.

Looking further, it seems the Memphis 2nd is really the same too. Why would anyone want those picks? They're more likely to not convey.

[Book1Nation]

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2024/2/6/24061204/phoenix-suns-trade-deadline-primer-what-you-need-to-know

We have a 2026 2nd from Detroit, Milwaukee or Orlando (least favorable) and a 2030 1st (least favorable of Washington, Memphis and Phoenix)

Other than that, good post.

Not sure why the SAS pick is even in there. It's protected unless they finish like 5th best in the league, or better. That pick will not convey and I imagine it goes away if not conveyed. We really only have 3 2nd's to play around with.

Looking further, it seems the Memphis 2nd is really the same too. Why would anyone want those picks? They're more likely to not convey.

Correct on the Spurs, we won't get it, but we have 4 future 2nds (would have 5 but thanks to Eubanks tampering we do not). The 2028 Boston pick is protected 31-45 but should convey unless they fall off the next couple years.

Memphis picks are unprotected.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed

Forfeited by Phoenix: 2024 second round draft pick from Denver
Denver's 2024 2nd round pick forfeited by Phoenix (via Orlando) [Denver-L.A. Clippers-L.A. Lakers-Orlando, 2/9/2023; Orlando-Phoenix, 7/17/2023; NBA ruling, 10/25/2023]

2024 second round draft pick from San Antonio
San Antonio's 2024 2nd round pick to Phoenix protected for unspecified selections or to Boston protected for selections 31-54 (San Antonio's obligation(s) to Phoenix and / or Boston will thereafter be extinguished) [Boston-San Antonio, 1/5/2023; Phoenix-San Antonio, 7/17/2023]

2026 second round draft pick from Detroit, Milwaukee or Orlando (least favorable)
Orlando will receive the two most favorable of its 2026 2nd round pick, Detroit's 2026 2nd round pick and Milwaukee's 2026 2nd round pick and Phoenix will receive the least favorable of the three (via Detroit to L.A. Clippers to Orlando; via Orlando to Phoenix) [Milwaukee-Orlando, 11/18/2020; Brooklyn-Detroit-L.A. Clippers, 11/19/2020; L.A. Clippers-Orlando, 7/29/2021; Orlando-Phoenix, 7/17/2023]

2028 second round draft pick from Boston
Boston's 2028 2nd round pick to Phoenix protected for selections 31-45 (via Orlando) (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Boston's obligation to Phoenix will be extinguished) [Boston-Orlando, 2/10/2022; Orlando-Phoenix, 7/17/2023]

2028 second round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 2028 2nd round pick to Phoenix [Memphis-Phoenix, 7/11/2023]

2029 second round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 2029 2nd round pick to Phoenix [Memphis-Phoenix, 7/11/2023]

[WeekapaugGroove]

I'm curious if the Suns try more of the multi pick swap trades like they did with Memphis.

Those are funny because you're basically gambling that you'll be better than that team and not actually swap picks. They are going to win that bet with the 24 pick swap, we'll see about the 2030 portion of that deal.

Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app

[Ghost of Kleine]

For anyone that likes to read what our (possible) insiders are hearing

Read on Twitter

Ya know............. IF the suns are actually looking for defensive (POA) point guard options at minimal cost, why not consider:

1- Marcus Garrett (Memphis Hustle- currently unrestricted)
He's 6'5 205 lbs an outstanding defender with a very solid motor, Pat Bev type defensive pest with size at 6'5 BUT with a josh Okogie humble personality! solid playmaker too, just not a great shooter but still solid free throw shooter at 80%.
https://kuathletics.com/roster/marcus-garrett/
https://theathletic.com/2537301/2021/04/23/marcus-garrett-kansas-defensive-specialist-bill-self/

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

2- Dejon Jarreau (Greensboro swarm- currently unrestricted)
Another 6'5 185 lb guard option out of Houston with a high motor, good tenacity, great athleticism, relentless defender.
https://uhcougars.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/dejon-jarreau/5901
https://www.fieldhousefiles.com/p/dejon-jarreau-signing-two-way

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

scoring/passing versatility

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

And then of course you still have some unrestricted vet options like:
Shaq Harrison (G league all defensive team), PJ dozier, RJ Nembhard. RJ being the brother of Andrew Nembhard of the Pacers that destroyed us recently just happens to be a great playmaker and very impressive defender too.

Any of these choices would come at minimal cost to us and really cost us nothing beyond a vet min contract and creating a roster spot. That way, we could actually save our few remaining assets along with low end salaries for trades that address other positions of significant need!!

[KdoubleDees23]

For anyone that likes to read what our (possible) insiders are hearing

Read on Twitter

Ya know............. IF the suns are actually looking for defensive (POA) point guard options at minimal cost, why not consider:

1- Marcus Garrett (Memphis Hustle- currently unrestricted)
He's 6'5 205 lbs an outstanding defender with a very solid motor, Pat Bev type defensive pest with size at 6'5 BUT with a josh Okogie humble personality! solid playmaker too, just not a great shooter but still solid free throw shooter at 80%.
https://kuathletics.com/roster/marcus-garrett/
https://theathletic.com/2537301/2021/04/23/marcus-garrett-kansas-defensive-specialist-bill-self/

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

2- Dejon Jarreau (Greensboro swarm- currently unrestricted)
Another 6'5 185 lb guard option out of Houston with a high motor, good tenacity, great athleticism, relentless defender.
https://uhcougars.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/dejon-jarreau/5901
https://www.fieldhousefiles.com/p/dejon-jarreau-signing-two-way

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

scoring/passing versatility

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

And then of course you still have some unrestricted vet options like:
Shaq Harrison (G league all defensive team), PJ dozier, RJ Nembhard. RJ being the brother of Andrew Nembhard of the Pacers that destroyed us recently just happens to be a great playmaker and very impressive defender too.

Any of these choices would come at minimal cost to us and really cost us nothing beyond a vet min contract and creating a roster spot. That way, we could actually save our few remaining assets along with low end salaries for trades that address other positions of significant need!!

Everyone mentioned here would not get 1 minute on the floor. We don't need them.

[sunskerr]

I'm getting lazy following this team. Jones never inspires any confidence when it comes to trading. Just gonna wait and see.

Position of need: everything

[Ghost of Kleine]

Read on Twitter

Please give any combination of Pat Bev, Oubre and Kenyon Martin! I would add DeAnthony Melton, But I just don't think they'd trade him as he's been so good for them.

[bwgood77]

Yeah, I can’t understand why people keep ignoring the fact that CP3+Shamet make as much as Beal and they are MUCH worse as a basketball players. That trade was an steal because Beal is just 30 years old.

CP3 and Shamet were both expiring contracts so I don't think it's as big of a steal as many think it is.

Beal is good now but the real question is how does he hold up the next 4 years as he ages and his contract gets more and more expensive? I think the last year of his deal we are on the hook for 56 million!

This trade can't really be judged just yet, we will need to look back on this in a couple years to see if his massive salary and the inability to get under the 2nd apron was worth it or not.

Expiring contracts that had they just let expire they would have only had the MLE to replace the players with this summer.

Beals contract is big and we'll see how it ages but it does run in his early 30s so thats positive and by the end of it guys on a max will be making $70 mil a yr and the MLE will be nearly $20 mil.

If they wanted to keep the salary slot they needed to trade CP. I'll take Beal over Poole any day. The real question is should they have gone with Harden instead because I do think that was an option. I guess time will tell on that one.

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I don't think Harden was an option at that time and I doubt they would have wanted Paul and Shamet. Plus they got an unprotected 1st rounder, a second first rounder they had gotten from OKC, two seconds, Batum, Covington and KJ Martin. How would we compete with that? You think our guys and a bunch of 2nds really comes close?

Personally I had zero interest in Harden though. I know he has worked out well with the Clippers, and Lue has gone hard in convincing him to change his style of play and shoot more catch and shoot 3s which he said he hadn't done since OKC....I kind of doubt Vogel would have been able to convince him of that. He is an underrated defender though when he tries and is very savvy getting steals.

But the Clips had way more in their arsenal to trade.

[bwgood77]

Yeah, I can’t understand why people keep ignoring the fact that CP3+Shamet make as much as Beal and they are MUCH worse as a basketball players. That trade was an steal because Beal is just 30 years old.

CP3 and Shamet were both expiring contracts so I don't think it's as big of a steal as many think it is.

Beal is good now but the real question is how does he hold up the next 4 years as he ages and his contract gets more and more expensive? I think the last year of his deal we are on the hook for 56 million!

This trade can't really be judged just yet, we will need to look back on this in a couple years to see if his massive salary and the inability to get under the 2nd apron was worth it or not.

He is under contract for this season and the next 3 years.

He is 30 now so he will be just 33 years old in his last season of his current contract.

Yes, Beal isn't that old and honestly, his wrist injury in early 22 had a big impact for a long time. Last season he missed the final 10 for tanking.

For our purposes these injuries may have put less wear and tear on his body in the long run. Back spasms are not a bad thing long term and his other two could have happened to anyone, landing on a foot that was an ugly twist and getting a hard elbow to the nose.

His contract ends 1 year after KD, who probably will get at least another year anyway. But if he doesn't, Beal turns into a huge expiring but with KD expiring we'd have cap space anyway and could decide if Beal is worth keeping past 33 with the KD cap space available for another star or role players.

[King4Day]

So much for that idea

Read on Twitter

[WeekapaugGroove]

CP3 and Shamet were both expiring contracts so I don't think it's as big of a steal as many think it is.

Beal is good now but the real question is how does he hold up the next 4 years as he ages and his contract gets more and more expensive? I think the last year of his deal we are on the hook for 56 million!

This trade can't really be judged just yet, we will need to look back on this in a couple years to see if his massive salary and the inability to get under the 2nd apron was worth it or not.

Expiring contracts that had they just let expire they would have only had the MLE to replace the players with this summer.

Beals contract is big and we'll see how it ages but it does run in his early 30s so thats positive and by the end of it guys on a max will be making $70 mil a yr and the MLE will be nearly $20 mil.

If they wanted to keep the salary slot they needed to trade CP. I'll take Beal over Poole any day. The real question is should they have gone with Harden instead because I do think that was an option. I guess time will tell on that one.

Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app

I don't think Harden was an option at that time and I doubt they would have wanted Paul and Shamet. Plus they got an unprotected 1st rounder, a second first rounder they had gotten from OKC, two seconds, Batum, Covington and KJ Martin. How would we compete with that? You think our guys and a bunch of 2nds really comes close?

Personally I had zero interest in Harden though. I know he has worked out well with the Clippers, and Lue has gone hard in convincing him to change his style of play and shoot more catch and shoot 3s which he said he hadn't done since OKC....I kind of doubt Vogel would have been able to convince him of that. He is an underrated defender though when he tries and is very savvy getting steals.

But the Clips had way more in their arsenal to trade.

I think they could have gotten Harden by telling his agent they were willing give James a max contact, he then opts out and at that point I do think Philly would have taken CP in a sign and trade vs letting his salary slot just disappear.

But yeah I had no interest in doing that either and i still don't. Just saying I do think it's something that could have happened.

Overall point was there were limited options with that CP contract this summer and Beal was a good gamble considering the circumstances.

Side note: Philly will be interesting the next 36 hours. If they don't think Embiid is coming back this year they could do a major fire sale with their expiring vets.

Sent from my SM-F731U using RealGM mobile app

[Ghost of Kleine]

Watch on YouTube

[bwgood77]

Never heard of this guy (the player)

This is from the athletic that the tweet is referencing:

Simone Fontecchio
Utah’s starting small forward has emerged as a serious trade target for two contending teams, according to multiple league sources: the Phoenix Suns and the Boston Celtics. Both teams need to strengthen their respective second units, and Fontecchio has an easy salary number for Phoenix and Boston to get to as he is in the final year of a contract that pays him $3.1 million annually.

Read on Twitter

He's played really well this year. I tried to pick him up in fantasy earlier but someone beat me to the punch.

[bwgood77]

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2024/2/6/24061204/phoenix-suns-trade-deadline-primer-what-you-need-to-know

Phoenix Suns Trade Deadline Primer: What you need to know
By John Voita
@DarthVoita Feb 6, 2024, 6:00am

When is the Trade Deadline?
This Thursday, February 8, at 1:00pm Arizona time.

You can track all trades as they occur here.
We will have a live update thread here on Bright Side around any trades that occur.
Phoenix Suns Assets
Player Salaries
Let’s start with what the Suns have and what their contracts look like for the coming years:


Top heavy in every sense of the word, Phoenix is a team built on the foundation of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal’s contracts. The three combine for $130.4 million this season, which is 71% of their total salary. To compensate for this they’ve built their roster on veteran minimum players, having 9 players who make $3.2 million or less (not including their three Two-Way contracted players).

Draft Capital
Now let’s look at what Phoenix has in the ‘ole draft pick department. Here is what the Suns have available in that bank:

Lotta red there.

The acquisition of their high-priced salaried players in Durant and Beal cost them on the cap sheet and in the draft piggy bank for years to come. From an assets standpoint, the team doesn’t have much flexibility. Their mid-level contract guys — Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, and Nassir Little — provide the best flexibility for differing reasons (contract length, potential to assist another team, productivity at their particular position).

Second Apron Rules
Now here is where it gets tricky, especially for a team like Phoenix. When you’re standing around the watercolor at work this week and your fellow co-workers are throwing names like Kyle Lowry out there as a great addition to the team, you’ll have to explain to them that the Suns can’t sign him, even though he’s been bought out. Why? The Suns are one of five NBA teams that have exceeded the “second apron”, which means they’ve spent a boatload of money to construct their roster. They join the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Milwaukee Bucks in spending over $182.5 million on the players that make up this year’s team.

Every team can spend a certain amount without penalty to field a team. Once you start to go over that salary cap, penalties occur. Here are those lines of designation for the 2023-24 season:

Salary Cap: $136 million
Luxury Tax: $165 million
First Apron: $172 million
Second Apron: $182.5 million
Phoenix finds themselves over the Second Apron penalty, which means the following penalties/restrictions occur (h/t Sporting News):

The Suns, per Eric Pincus, are $22.1 million over the luxury tax threshold, which means they are paying a $53.2 million luxury tax penalty
- They cannot acquire a player in a sign-and-trade if that player keeps them above the apron (which it would)
- They cannot sign a player waived during the regular season whose salary was over the $12.2 million midlevel exception (Kyle Lowry, for example, made $29.7 million)
- Salary matching in trades must be within 110%, rather than 125% for teams not above the apron
- No access to the $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception
- Next season the rules for second apron teams become even stricter, as these rules will be in place:

- Teams cannot use a trade exception generated by aggregating the salaries of multiple players
- Teams cannot include cash in a trade
- Teams cannot use a trade exception generated in a prior year
- First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)
- A team’s first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons
Explain all that to your buddies at the watercolor. Then ask yourselves, why are we hanging around a watercolor? Let’s go to the lunchroom to break all of this madness down.

Positional Needs
Everything listed above is Joe Friday-esque. It’s just the facts. Here is where subjectivity enters the conversation. You ask 10 different people what the Suns need to add to their roster and you’ll get six different answers. We all watch the same team but see different opportunities for the team to improve.

Cases can be made for nearly every position outside of starting two-guard and power forward. We need ball-handling and late-game facilitation! We need interior size when Nurk takes a seat! We need another scorer coming off of the bench!

We can hypothesize all day on what we think the Suns need, but the decision falls internally on James Jones. What does he think? The team has been reportedly interested in acquiring an athletic wing. Is that the need they truly have? Their roster is built on wing depth. Those wings, like Yuta Watanabe and Keita Bates-Diop, simply aren’t performing at the level we expected preseason.

Trade Targets
Rumors have been circulating for quite some time now, although the specifics of what the Suns are shopping have remained hush-hush. Based on the assets Phoenix has, however, we can assume a combination of Nassir Little’s contract, one (or two) or the veteran minimum guys, and perhaps a second-round draft pick or two is what Phoenix is putting on the market in an effort to move the needle.

Sad thing is, those aren’t really needle-moving assets. Still, Phoenix has been linked to the Nets’ Royce O’Neale, Houston’s Jae-Sean Tate, and the Hornets' Miles Bridges. Then there are the newly surfaced rumors around Dorian Finney-Smith, Isaac Okoro, and Andre Drummond. Cases can be made for adding all of the above-listed players. They meet the needs of the roster.

Miles Bridges is the outlier as he brings with him plenty of baggage, which has been the subject of much debate in our message boards over the past two weeks. There isn’t much else out there for Phoenix to pursue at the price point they’ve pigeon-holed themselves into. A point guard would be ideal, but the likes of the Pacers’ T.J. McConnell are unattainable for the Suns. They simply do not have enough appealing assets to make it attractive enough to Indiana. James Jones is up to something, and if history has provided us any roadmap, it’s that we have no idea what that is. I will say this: don’t expect a monstrous acquisition like we experienced last year. If any moves are to be made by Phoenix, it will be on the fringes of the roster. Still, we will be watching and waiting to see if Jones can improve this roster.

Set your Woj and Shams notifications to “on” on your phones. It’s about to get wild.

I didn't realize we traded our 2030 first...and those seconds may be unlikely to convey...given the heavy protections...particularly Memphis, but perhaps SA too. We have to nail our first rounders in 24, 26 and 28, despite them being swapped and maybe being not very good picks.

[bwgood77]

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2024/2/6/24061204/phoenix-suns-trade-deadline-primer-what-you-need-to-know

Draft Capital
Now let’s look at what Phoenix has in the ‘ole draft pick department. Here is what the Suns have available in that bank:

Lotta red there.

We have a 2026 2nd from Detroit, Milwaukee or Orlando (least favorable) and a 2030 1st (least favorable of Washington, Memphis and Phoenix)

Other than that, good post.

Oh yeah, 2030 could only be a swap since 2029 is going out. That's good.

[bwgood77]

I guess Fontecchio is going to the Pistons.

[dremill24]

Tillman I thought was a good option...oh well

[Saberestar]

Tillman I thought was a good option...oh well

Woj

The Memphis Grizzlies are trading F/C Xavier Tillman to the Boston Celtics for two second-round picks, sources tell ESPN.

The Celtics are sending a 2027 second via Atlanta and a 2030 second via Dallas to the Grizzlies, sources tell ESPN. Boston gets Tillman, a young, versatile frontcourt player who gives them some depth for a championship run.

[Revived]

I'm getting lazy following this team. Jones never inspires any confidence when it comes to trading. Just gonna wait and see.

Position of need: everything

It’s been over a year now of Ishbia working with him, I’m surprised he hasn’t realized that Jones is one of the worst GMs in the league. I remember last year he couldn’t find any team to trade for Crowder and yet the Nets found a way to trade Crowder and get 5 second rd picks within 10 mins of getting him.

James Jones isn’t cut out to be a FO guy. Every interview he’s done has showed that too. Guy needs to be an assistant coach somewhere.

Bob Myers is available and Ishbia needs to jump on that and make him an offer before some other team does.