What Now? 2024 Off-Season Predictions

[NYG]

So what happens in the off-season now that the trade deadline has passed? Which big names will shake free?

[HadAnEffectHere]

Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell are obviously the main guys of interest along with the weirdness of LeBron's FA.

76ers obviously the main team to watch in FA along with OKC. OKC can get basically any player they want I'm pretty surprised they did nothing to help their rebounding despite having the second best SRS in the NBA.

If LeBron leaves for like OKC or Philly or somewhere else, I'm not sure exactly what the Lakers do. They owe their picks to the Pelicans in 2025 (most likely) and their pick to the Jazz in 2027 (most likely) and have AD so they kind of have to try to contend, but there's not a ton of options there.

If the Cavs flame out again in the postseason and Donovan Mitchell still extends, then Evan Mobley probably has to be on the block, maybe Garland as well.

The Knicks will have to try to move Randle if he's awful again in the postseason.

Pels need to trade some of their role players for a more elite role player as their roster is getting too expensive. Dyson Daniels seems most likely to be moved as he's terrible for postseason basketball.

Suns, Bucks, and Clips are just out of ammo, maybe KD will ask for another trade.

Have to wonder if Luka asks for a trade if the Mavs miss the playoffs again.

Grizz desperately need a center so I wouldn't be shocked to see them trade their pick for a center. Maybe like the #7 pick for Walker Kessler and a mid to late first?

Wemby is ready to win now so I assume the Spurs will go after really good young players. They're the team that can most easily get Trae Young also so I wouldn't be shocked to see Trae traded to the Spurs. Trae Young in exchange for Sochan, Vassell, and the return of the Hawks' picks is easily the best deal the Hawks could ever get.

[oldncreaky]

Assuming that a few good players (PS, PG, OG) resign with their current teams, way too much money will be chasing a very underwhelming group of free agents, with the salary floor becoming a thing. Some role players are about to get paid!

[165bows]

LBJ to NYC.

[RookieJazz]

Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell are obviously the main guys of interest along with the weirdness of LeBron's FA.

76ers obviously the main team to watch in FA along with OKC. OKC can get basically any player they want I'm pretty surprised they did nothing to help their rebounding despite having the second best SRS in the NBA.

If LeBron leaves for like OKC or Philly or somewhere else, I'm not sure exactly what the Lakers do. They owe their picks to the Pelicans in 2025 (most likely) and their pick to the Jazz in 2027 (most likely) and have AD so they kind of have to try to contend, but there's not a ton of options there.

If the Cavs flame out again in the postseason and Donovan Mitchell still extends, then Evan Mobley probably has to be on the block, maybe Garland as well.

The Knicks will have to try to move Randle if he's awful again in the postseason.

Pels need to trade some of their role players for a more elite role player as their roster is getting too expensive. Dyson Daniels seems most likely to be moved as he's terrible for postseason basketball.

Suns, Bucks, and Clips are just out of ammo, maybe KD will ask for another trade.

Have to wonder if Luka asks for a trade if the Mavs miss the playoffs again.

Grizz desperately need a center so I wouldn't be shocked to see them trade their pick for a center. Maybe like the #7 pick for Walker Kessler and a mid to late first?

Wemby is ready to win now so I assume the Spurs will go after really good young players. They're the team that can most easily get Trae Young also so I wouldn't be shocked to see Trae traded to the Spurs. Trae Young in exchange for Sochan, Vassell, and the return of the Hawks' picks is easily the best deal the Hawks could ever get.

Great Post. You should add 2 teams to your description:

Boston: They can't keep Tatum and Brown long-term and still be competitive. I think Brown is the odd man out. Maybe next season (if Boston fails early in POs) maybe 2025-2026. But I think it is a name to watch.

Minnesota: If they got a 1st round exit again, I am sure they will trade KAT. And there is still a chance of Ant asking for a trade. So another team/players to watch.

[RookieJazz]

From Jazz POV, I think it is the last off-season of building around Lauri narrative. Either they get another impact player to build around Lauri or they trade Lauri for numerous 1st picks and go full rebuild.

[zimpy27]

Trae traded to Spurs for young player(s) and ATL picks back

[TimDunkin]

Been looking forward to the offseason for the past 30 games or so. There's so much smoke around the Trae/Spurs that there has to be some fire, right? What's a realistic return if Trae demands a trade generally?

Spurs obviously won't include Wemby and don't want to part with Sochan, Vassell, or Keldon - with Keldon probably being the easiest to budge on. Keldon, Devonte Graham, Malaki Branham, SAS 24 1st, ATL 25 & 27 1st, CHI 25 1st, and ATL 26 swap?

[TheNetsFan]

The current buzz is about Trae. Eyes will be on the '25 FAs that will be extension eligible this offseason like Mitchell & Ingram. People will also watch the unexpected high seeds (Cleveland, Minnesota, OKC) to see if a disappointing exit in the playoffs, even if it's against a unexpectedly low seeded veteran team like LAL or Miami leads to some anxiousness.

I do think Giddy is becoming the odd man out in OKC, and will be moved. They're not going to be able to pay everyone, and between SGA & Wallace, they should have the guard spots locked up well.

[toooskies]

Been looking forward to the offseason for the past 30 games or so. There's so much smoke around the Trae/Spurs that there has to be some fire, right? What's a realistic return if Trae demands a trade generally?

Spurs obviously won't include Wemby and don't want to part with Sochan, Vassell, or Keldon - with Keldon probably being the easiest to budge on. Keldon, Devonte Graham, Malaki Branham, SAS 24 1st, ATL 25 & 27 1st, CHI 25 1st, and ATL 26 swap?

I think the smoke is less evidence-driven than ever. LaVine and Murray have been tire fires of smoke all year-- neither got moved. Atlanta reportedly wanted to trade their entire roster and didn't make any deals. OG was rarely rumored to the Knicks, and Siakam was only speculated to Indy in the last month or two of years-long rumor mills. Mitchell to NYC has been reported in just about every New York media member's fever dreams for half a decade already-- instead he's as bought-in to his team and teammates as ever.

If there's smoke but no one is actively making a deal, that's almost always a leverage play by an agent or team. If someone was offering enough, the deal would already be done.

[lordjeff05]

For the Pelicans, alot will rely on what happens in the playoffs and what Jonas would be willing to sign for. If they can get him for a starting salary of 13.5 on a 3 year 45 million dollar deal then they can sign their draft pick this year and pretty much stand pat. Otherwise they may have to do some consolidation and cost cutting.

Dyson is an interesting trade chip. I here what you are saying about him being untradeable in the playoffs but it will be interesting to see if the Pels can buy some time to see him continue to grow. With an even passable offensive game he becomes really valuable and he has grown a bit in certain parts of his game. He isnt even 21 yet and it would be great to see if a little more time helps out his shooting and agression.

[theBigLip]

The Pistons finally balanced out their roster and replaced some deadwood with players that can actually play. And they still have their $60-70M in cap space. They should be active shoring up their wings/PFs.

Is Miles Bridges going to be available?
Also, what is the Pistons 2024 draft pick worth?

[Wolveswin]

Been looking forward to the offseason for the past 30 games or so. There's so much smoke around the Trae/Spurs that there has to be some fire, right? What's a realistic return if Trae demands a trade generally?

Spurs obviously won't include Wemby and don't want to part with Sochan, Vassell, or Keldon - with Keldon probably being the easiest to budge on. Keldon, Devonte Graham, Malaki Branham, SAS 24 1st, ATL 25 & 27 1st, CHI 25 1st, and ATL 26 swap?

I think the smoke is less evidence-driven than ever. LaVine and Murray have been tire fires of smoke all year-- neither got moved. Atlanta reportedly wanted to trade their entire roster and didn't make any deals. OG was rarely rumored to the Knicks, and Siakam was only speculated to Indy in the last month or two of years-long rumor mills. Mitchell to NYC has been reported in just about every New York media member's fever dreams for half a decade already-- instead he's as bought-in to his team and teammates as ever.

If there's smoke but no one is actively making a deal, that's almost always a leverage play by an agent or team. If someone was offering enough, the deal would already be done.

Brown for Trae makes too much sense. Brown and Murray complement each other on the court and on the balance sheet. Murray value deal with Brown super max.

Celtics get a couple seasons to see what Trae earns in next contract.

[Wolveswin]

Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell are obviously the main guys of interest along with the weirdness of LeBron's FA.

76ers obviously the main team to watch in FA along with OKC. OKC can get basically any player they want I'm pretty surprised they did nothing to help their rebounding despite having the second best SRS in the NBA.

If LeBron leaves for like OKC or Philly or somewhere else, I'm not sure exactly what the Lakers do. They owe their picks to the Pelicans in 2025 (most likely) and their pick to the Jazz in 2027 (most likely) and have AD so they kind of have to try to contend, but there's not a ton of options there.

If the Cavs flame out again in the postseason and Donovan Mitchell still extends, then Evan Mobley probably has to be on the block, maybe Garland as well.

The Knicks will have to try to move Randle if he's awful again in the postseason.

Pels need to trade some of their role players for a more elite role player as their roster is getting too expensive. Dyson Daniels seems most likely to be moved as he's terrible for postseason basketball.

Suns, Bucks, and Clips are just out of ammo, maybe KD will ask for another trade.

Have to wonder if Luka asks for a trade if the Mavs miss the playoffs again.

Grizz desperately need a center so I wouldn't be shocked to see them trade their pick for a center. Maybe like the #7 pick for Walker Kessler and a mid to late first?

Wemby is ready to win now so I assume the Spurs will go after really good young players. They're the team that can most easily get Trae Young also so I wouldn't be shocked to see Trae traded to the Spurs. Trae Young in exchange for Sochan, Vassell, and the return of the Hawks' picks is easily the best deal the Hawks could ever get.

Great Post. You should add 2 teams to your description:

Boston: They can't keep Tatum and Brown long-term and still be competitive. I think Brown is the odd man out. Maybe next season (if Boston fails early in POs) maybe 2025-2026. But I think it is a name to watch.

Minnesota: If they got a 1st round exit again, I am sure they will trade KAT. And there is still a chance of Ant asking for a trade. So another team/players to watch.

Edwards isn’t even in trade discussion. Even if for some crazy reason asks out.

Towns is on trade block for any outcome that isn’t WCF or better. Towns value can earn Wolves what they need: PGOF. Also, I think Reid can and should backfill 70-80% of what Towns delivers and is 24yo.

[jayjaysee]

I think Boston will continue to pay their group.

Presti will have 25+ million in cap space, two lottery picks looking like they will convey, and have finished with a top 5 record. Don’t know what you do with all that. But there aren’t many wrong answers. Maybe trade the Utah first for a moderately protected 2026 first and a win now piece? Maybe just trade a lottery pick for 2-3 future protected firsts and continue the cycle, could upset OKC fans and take on another bad contract (expiring though) for more picks or a pick swap..

Dallas - I expect to strongly ship the 2025 first with matching salary, some fluff value added in as well... We can start posting those now. Maybe see how PJ and Gafford look first, but yeah.

I expect Detroit to create a terrible contract. I don’t mean that rudely. It could be a great player like OG, but expect them to overpay someone to try and get out of bottom. And won’t blame them..

[babyjax13]

I think if Atlanta continues to struggle they blow it up in the offseason and rebuild around Jalen Johnson.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Pistons finally balanced out their roster and replaced some deadwood with players that can actually play. And they still have their $60-70M in cap space. They should be active shoring up their wings/PFs.

Is Miles Bridges going to be available?
Also, what is the Pistons 2024 draft pick worth?

I would say that like the 3rd pick in this draft should be expected to produce like an average role player with minimal star potential. Maybe some good but not great young player that a team doesn't want to pay. Like, Trey Murphy at the high end and Walker Kessler at the low end. Murphy, Kessler, Jalen Johnson, Josh Giddey (Not a Giddey fan to be clear)... Guys like that

[MoneyTalks41890]

I think Boston will continue to pay their group.

Presti will have 25+ million in cap space, two lottery picks looking like they will convey, and have finished with a top 5 record. Don’t know what you do with all that. But there aren’t many wrong answers. Maybe trade the Utah first for a moderately protected 2026 first and a win now piece? Maybe just trade a lottery pick for 2-3 future protected firsts and continue the cycle, could upset OKC fans and take on another bad contract (expiring though) for more picks or a pick swap..

Dallas - I expect to strongly ship the 2025 first with matching salary, some fluff value added in as well... We can start posting those now. Maybe see how PJ and Gafford look first, but yeah.

I expect Detroit to create a terrible contract. I don’t mean that rudely. It could be a great player like OG, but expect them to overpay someone to try and get out of bottom. And won’t blame them..

I want to trade up for Cody Williams, Jalen's brother. He'd be a great fit. And I think the two lottery picks plus could be enticing for someone sitting at 5 if they think "it's a bad draft."

[jayjaysee]

I want to trade up for Cody Williams, Jalen's brother. He'd be a great fit. And I think the two lottery picks plus could be enticing for someone sitting at 5 if they think "it's a bad draft."

Yeah, Cody is a really nice target. Matas is a decent fit with how OKC plays IMO. And Sarr has a brother as well playing in OKC..

Moving up is always possible, especially with the future draft weight OKC has.

I just don’t expect OKC to keep both picks, and I think I’m giving up on posting deals where OKC trades firsts for talent.. Moving up or out..

[Ell Curry]

After not making a deadline move to take on any more money, my guess is Orlando will make a massive offer for Malik Monk. They have bigger, defensively very strong guards in Suggs and Black to pair with Monk and they badly need some creation at guard, and Monk isn't too old to still be at his peak in 3-4 years when Banchero and Wagner are ready to carry a team deep in the playoffs.

They have a ton of cap space, and paying Claxton or Hartenstein probably makes less sense than adding Monk, particularly with this their #15 pick probably more likely to bring a decent center prospect (Clingan, Missi, Filipowsk, Ivisic) than a scoring guard, since the draft seems a bit barren in guys like that after the top 7 or so.