Post#212 » by MrSparkle » Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:37 pm
I’ve been holding hope for Coby for years. At times I gave up and was ready to sell for a FRP or bundle him… but the cheap extension was a no-brainer: real question is what would’ve happened if somebody came up with a $15-20m offer.
But it’s impossible to know. What I do know, is Coby’s the last remaining piece of the GarPax build, if you assume Zach’s not a core guy anymore… and they had lots of time to move away from him. I don’t think signing Jevon was an indication they want to move on; if anything, you usually sign a career bench vet when you want to put a little pressure on your prospect, but not too much as to permanently steal their job (classic GarPax move: Sato). It’s on the player to play to their potential to keep that starting position. Same thing with Craig.
But I’ve been hopeful for Coby, and saw some attractive ceiling the whole time. Like Lauri, he showed quite a bit his rookie year, and then struggled to follow up. He had some good (and terrible) stretches each season, and I was vocal about the over-the-top criticism (“he’ll never be a PG! 6th man ceiling”).
If I have to be honest, the offensive repertoire was never there, but as a quiet but effective defensive player, Patrick kind of showed what he needed to as well, in his rookie year. His slow development and tentative attitude has been really frustrating at times, but whoever tries to make some grand distinction between him and Coby is kidding themselves. Coby went througy som horrible stretches in his first 5 years, looking like a headless chicken bouncing around with no control and a terrible FG%.
The NBA metrics are super tough to read and gauge. Especially with 3P shooters. Like, Pat has the skill to shoot lights out from the arc. He’s been low volume and hesitant. But the coordination and skill are there. If he even just becomes a high volume confident 3P spotup shooter, that’s not far from Mikal on the high side, OG on the low side. So when guys like Lauri, Coby and Pat make ONE more 3P bucket in their averages… they can go from 34% to 39% shooters over night. In fact, that’s exactly what keeps happening with these guys. So everyone writes off these guys when these good shooters are making 33% while being low usage 5th options, while developing their defense and getting coached hard on skills and awareness, but we’re literally talking about one 3P bucket being a huge difference on a low-volume/high-impact shot.
Ayo is trickier cause he does have a fairly broken shot, but… I also see a good ceiling, as a well-rounded player. More of the Mann/Rozier realm, but who knows. We liked him as an Illini.
These kids play well considering they are still green. I’m bummed about the state of the Bulls, but it’s a little nonsensical getting upset at AK for “accidentally” having Coby blossom, and drawing the distinction that the other prospects are longshots. Phillips also legitimately looks promising… and Terry has a LOOONG way to go, but I also see worthwhile talent at the end of the road (fair to say he wasn’t worth the 18th pick… but he’s here, cheap, and has zero trade value, so as a 5-year 3rd string project, I have no problem besides for hindsight draft regret).