Two slivers of hope, draft depth and expiring contracts

[Rapsfan07]

Givony's analysis isn't anything new. When people talk about "great drafts" or "poor drafts", they are almost invariably referring to the top of the draft. 2013 was known in advance to be terrible at the top, but still resulted in Giannis and Gobert. 2003 draft was legendary at the top, but was not much thereafter. 2021 had a lot of talent in the top 10, then guys like Sengun, some Tre's and Jalen Johnson at 20. Now THAT was a good draft.

The added dimension under the new CBA is the cost of those terrible top picks. Can you imagine having to pay a Bennett or Len or Bender $6-10 mill/yr? I think the KO/Ochai trade demonstrated that Masai does NOT want to pay that much for what he sees at the top of the 2024 draft. And he didn't want to be locked into paying the next Malachi Flynn for the next two years with OKC/Clippers pick. The plan is to win enough games to drop down in the lottery. Hopefully the team can get their collective heads together over the all-star break and manage that seemingly simple task - winning enough games to drop to 10 or so.

Dropping in the lottery standings is the last thing we need to do right now. If anything, we need to be getting as close to keeping that pick as possible.

The money is going to be spent either way - whether that's on vets or on a rookie scale deal. I'd rather spend it on a young guy who has a chance to be a star or at least outperform their contract than to pay for free agent talent that very likely doesn't raise our short or long term ceiling.

When the team is this bad, I find it hard to justify spurning FRPs - if that is in fact what Masai thinks.

[Chandan]

Them: Hey, I want to do Kelly a favor...
Us:Not for a first.
Them: Ok, how about now.
Us: *reaching*

When you think about it, what a win it would be for Masai if Kelly was signed IN THE OFF SEASON. It would certainly make the whole situation look better considering our dismal FA record. By all accounts Kelly doesn't mind the losing and loves to be here regardless of our tanking.

But now you attach a pick and OA in the equation it muddles the whole thing and suddenly it just reminds everyone of the Poeltl blunder instead, trading a pick for an expiring big.

[Tha Cynic]

That was was a good read and since I don't follow college ball, it aligns with what I'm hoping for - everyone identified that there are probably no superstars but you could come out with players like Pods, Walker, Bufkin, Dick, etc in abundance

Also that cap flexibility by the Raptors is going to be as good as having a first round pick or two one day.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Them: Hey, I want to do Kelly a favor...
Us:Not for a first.
Them: Ok, how about now.
Us: *reaching*

When you think about it, what a win it would be for Masai if Kelly was signed IN THE OFF SEASON. It would certainly make the whole situation look better considering our dismal FA record. By all accounts Kelly doesn't mind the losing and loves to be here regardless of our tanking.

But now you attach a pick and OA in the equation it muddles the whole thing and suddenly it just reminds everyone of the Poeltl blunder instead trading a pick for an expiring big.

A pair of seconds went a long way this year, when you think about it.

[tecumseh18]

Givony's analysis isn't anything new. When people talk about "great drafts" or "poor drafts", they are almost invariably referring to the top of the draft. 2013 was known in advance to be terrible at the top, but still resulted in Giannis and Gobert. 2003 draft was legendary at the top, but was not much thereafter. 2021 had a lot of talent in the top 10, then guys like Sengun, some Tre's and Jalen Johnson at 20. Now THAT was a good draft.

The added dimension under the new CBA is the cost of those terrible top picks. Can you imagine having to pay a Bennett or Len or Bender $6-10 mill/yr? I think the KO/Ochai trade demonstrated that Masai does NOT want to pay that much for what he sees at the top of the 2024 draft. And he didn't want to be locked into paying the next Malachi Flynn for the next two years with OKC/Clippers pick. The plan is to win enough games to drop down in the lottery. Hopefully the team can get their collective heads together over the all-star break and manage that seemingly simple task - winning enough games to drop to 10 or so.

Dropping in the lottery standings is the last thing we need to do right now. If anything, we need to be getting as close to keeping that pick as possible.

The money is going to be spent either way - whether that's on vets or on a rookie scale deal. I'd rather spend it on a young guy who has a chance to be a star or at least outperform their contract than to pay for free agent talent that very likely doesn't raise our short or long term ceiling.

When the team is this bad, I find it hard to justify spurning FRPs - if that is in fact what Masai thinks.

Then, why, why, WHY did Masai, for the second season in a row, make a win-now trade to bring in a serviceable C in KO at the cost of a FRP, a move which (in theory) would jeopardize our chances of staying in the top/bottom 6 (pre-lottery)? Why not let Porter keep losing us games when Poeltl is off?

Such a move makes no sense by Team Keep standards. It ONLY makes sense if he'd prefer to surrender the pick to the Spurs this year. Such a preference has to be based on an analysis of the top of the 2024 draft and probably the 2025 draft.

[billy_hoyle]

Givony's analysis isn't anything new. When people talk about "great drafts" or "poor drafts", they are almost invariably referring to the top of the draft. 2013 was known in advance to be terrible at the top, but still resulted in Giannis and Gobert. 2003 draft was legendary at the top, but was not much thereafter. 2021 had a lot of talent in the top 10, then guys like Sengun, some Tre's and Jalen Johnson at 20. Now THAT was a good draft.

The added dimension under the new CBA is the cost of those terrible top picks. Can you imagine having to pay a Bennett or Len or Bender $6-10 mill/yr? I think the KO/Ochai trade demonstrated that Masai does NOT want to pay that much for what he sees at the top of the 2024 draft. And he didn't want to be locked into paying the next Malachi Flynn for the next two years with OKC/Clippers pick. The plan is to win enough games to drop down in the lottery. Hopefully the team can get their collective heads together over the all-star break and manage that seemingly simple task - winning enough games to drop to 10 or so.

Dropping in the lottery standings is the last thing we need to do right now. If anything, we need to be getting as close to keeping that pick as possible.

The money is going to be spent either way - whether that's on vets or on a rookie scale deal. I'd rather spend it on a young guy who has a chance to be a star or at least outperform their contract than to pay for free agent talent that very likely doesn't raise our short or long term ceiling.

When the team is this bad, I find it hard to justify spurning FRPs - if that is in fact what Masai thinks.

Then, why, why, WHY did Masai, for the second season in a row, make a win-now trade to bring in a serviceable C in KO at the cost of a FRP, a move which (in theory) would jeopardize our chances of staying in the top/bottom 6 (pre-lottery)? Why not let Porter keep losing us games when Poeltl is off?

Such a move makes no sense by Team Keep standards. It ONLY makes sense if he'd prefer to surrender the pick to the Spurs this year. Such a preference has to be based on an analysis of the top of the 2024 draft and probably the 2025 draft.

Well, there are three components to this equation.

1 - getting last years lottery pick, a guy that more closely fits the timeline of BBQ.

2 - trade for a stretch C that helps evaluate BBQ and aids in developing them in their proper roles (i.e. with a legitimate C). Couple this with the pre-agency flexibility of bird rights for Olynyk.

3 - as Bobby alluded to, at this time, we aren't passing many teams in either direction. He even followed it up by helping the Nets improve their record by gifting them Dennis. The lottery odds are levelled you don't get massive changes either way. Detroit literally fell out of the top 4 based on the more even odds. This was done dissuade tanking. We just aren't incentivized (mathematically) to dump all positive assets. We will sit guys with injuries to achieve our 5 or 8th worst record. I'm hoping for 5th worst, but those other teams control their own tanking fate. We might never be able to catch them. Adding KO won't impact wins when we are trying to lose (play Gradey...sit RJ and Yak with nagging injuries).

[d00lttle]

Just need to draft a Jokic and then we gucci.

[Dalek]

My sliver of hope includes scouting the Euroleague for American players who could return after success in Europe.

I think Bobby Webster mentioned looking towards Europe in his press conference.

My favorite target is Keenan Evans, a 6'3 tough guard who is 27 and playing on an expiring deal with Zalgiris Kaunas.

His shooting splits: 51.7/45.8/87.2 with 66/144 he has good three point volume and efficiency.
Traditional numbers: 17/3/4

PIR = (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks + Fouls Drawn) – (Missed Field Goals + Missed Free Throws + Turnovers + Shots Rejected + Fouls Committed)

Evans PIR is tied for fourth best in Euroleague at 18.58. There were rumors of him leaving early but it isn't a sure thing. Last year, we held interest in Kevin Punter so this could be a next play.

[Rapsfan07]

Givony's analysis isn't anything new. When people talk about "great drafts" or "poor drafts", they are almost invariably referring to the top of the draft. 2013 was known in advance to be terrible at the top, but still resulted in Giannis and Gobert. 2003 draft was legendary at the top, but was not much thereafter. 2021 had a lot of talent in the top 10, then guys like Sengun, some Tre's and Jalen Johnson at 20. Now THAT was a good draft.

The added dimension under the new CBA is the cost of those terrible top picks. Can you imagine having to pay a Bennett or Len or Bender $6-10 mill/yr? I think the KO/Ochai trade demonstrated that Masai does NOT want to pay that much for what he sees at the top of the 2024 draft. And he didn't want to be locked into paying the next Malachi Flynn for the next two years with OKC/Clippers pick. The plan is to win enough games to drop down in the lottery. Hopefully the team can get their collective heads together over the all-star break and manage that seemingly simple task - winning enough games to drop to 10 or so.

Dropping in the lottery standings is the last thing we need to do right now. If anything, we need to be getting as close to keeping that pick as possible.

The money is going to be spent either way - whether that's on vets or on a rookie scale deal. I'd rather spend it on a young guy who has a chance to be a star or at least outperform their contract than to pay for free agent talent that very likely doesn't raise our short or long term ceiling.

When the team is this bad, I find it hard to justify spurning FRPs - if that is in fact what Masai thinks.

Then, why, why, WHY did Masai, for the second season in a row, make a win-now trade to bring in a serviceable C in KO at the cost of a FRP, a move which (in theory) would jeopardize our chances of staying in the top/bottom 6 (pre-lottery)? Why not let Porter keep losing us games when Poeltl is off?

Such a move makes no sense by Team Keep standards. It ONLY makes sense if he'd prefer to surrender the pick to the Spurs this year. Such a preference has to be based on an analysis of the top of the 2024 draft and probably the 2025 draft.

I agree with your conclusion of Masai's thinking process. I just don't agree with Masai's thinking process and here's why.

There are only two possibilities here - either he is right about the 2024 & 2025 drafts or he isn't.

If he is right about the 2024 draft and even the top prospects suck then we won't even know that to be true for at least the next couple years. In this case, we moved a Top 6 pick that conveys and the team likely isn't much better next year, which means we're going to be bad next year (intentionally or unintentionally). Of course, in this scenario, we won't know if these guys at the top are good or not. What we do know is time is passing anyway and we're going to suck anyway, logic seems to tell me we might as well take a chance on some young talent in the interim. Not to mention that if we aren't sure about the 2024 draft, there's no way we can be sure of the 2025 draft short of a Wemby-type prospect being available and as you can see, even with a talent like that, the future of the franchise doesn't swing immediately.

If he's wrong about the 2024 draft and there is a stud in the top 6, then not only did we lose out on a potential future piece but we watched a horrible season of basketball for absolutely no reason. Then next year we're going to what? Tank again? If that was going to be the plan, why not pick up two top talents in two seasons instead of one? This way, you double your chances at getting a core piece. Because right now all our eggs are in the Barnes' basket and that's fine but if he isn't "the guy" (and I don't think he is) then why wouldn't you want to take as much shots finding "the guy" as reasonably possible? I'm not saying tank forever until you get a star but if you're going to suck anyway then make it worth it.

So to answer your question, I really don't know why he did that deal with the Jazz other than he believe Agbaji is better or has the potential to be better than anyone else available at that point in the draft. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong - I don't think anyone knows for sure as yet. But if I'm star hunting (which we should be at the moment), I take my chances in the draft. We aren't short of role players at the guard spot and that's what Agbaji projects to be - best case scenario. He's not better than Barrett, he's not better than Trent and he's not better than Dick - two of whom are the same age or younger. We'd be better off trying our luck with something brand new than to glut up our guard spot with guys who don't project to be special. Push comes to shove, that deal is probably available at the draft as well so no real reason to jump the gun. It's not like he was on the verge of breaking out or something.

So yeah. Not sure what happened there but this is why I've been so critical of Masai's moves for the last couple of deadlines.

[Scase]

I'm just saying it's too early to say what he can be or will be. Declaring him completely useless after 1.5 years into his career isn't fair either.

You're probably not wrong, I do think it's definitely too early to write him off now, but that's what everyone said about Flynn as well, and I think we all know how that went. Ochai realistically should not be seeing 20mpg+, but because we lack prospects for the most part, he gets some burn and we just hope the development team can work some magic.

I just don't think it's off base to say there are some pretty big red flags with a 4 year college player in his second year being unable to contribute. Like that's the whole reason WHY you draft a 4 year player, it ain't ever for high potential.

I think he was drafted too high in the first place. I remember not liking for the pick for the Cavs at that spot. But I see the potential as a defender and he's showed some signs as a shooter, so I think there is some 3+D potential with him if things click. He certainly has the NBA body to play that kind of role.

I would pretty much entirely agree with you here. But I posit that potentially drafting a project who is 19/20 years old in this years draft who shows some potential in the same 3+D areas, would be a better use of the pick that was traded.

I agree he was likely drafted too high, and probably fits around 20 or so, most people would agree that the difference between 20th and 28th is negligible at best. Except in this scenario, we have a younger player, with more time to improve, on a full rookie contract, and locked up on team friendly deals for the better part of a decade.

I think most would go with the latter over Ochai, and I think that would be a pretty reasonable course of action.

With all that said, if our success hinges on the performance of a player drafted in the 20's we've got bigger issues to worry about lol.

[Chandan]

Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong - I don't think anyone knows for sure as yet. But if I'm star hunting (which we should be at the moment), I take my chances in the draft. We aren't short of role players at the guard spot and that's what Agbaji projects to be - best case scenario. He's not better than Barrett, he's not better than Trent and he's not better than Dick - two of whom are the same age or younger. We'd be better off trying our luck with something brand new than to glut up our guard spot with guys who don't project to be special. Push comes to shove, that deal is probably available at the draft as well so no real reason to jump the gun. It's not like he was on the verge of breaking out or something.

couldn't have said it better.

[DelAbbot]

There was no way they were going to use three firsts (or two) plus the Pistons pick, and Olynyk alone is capable of offsetting some of that value surrendered.

Olynyk is a unrestricted free agent. And I don't see the difference between having 4 rookies (sending 2 to D league) in opposed to 3 rookies and Ochai, except none of those rookies have busted yet.

Maybe bust is a strong word. But another franchise has taken a crack at it and obviously didn't like what they saw.

I'd bet Olynyk signs again with the Raptors for a salary in the range of the room exception. As for the number of rookies, there are only 15 roster spots. First round picks have a fixed salary scale, so you can't put them in a two-way contract or Exhibit 10 deal. If the Raptors have four rookies, that means cutting guys you might prefer, say, like Porter Jr. Sure, so maybe you get rid of a couple o current players easily enough, but third and fourth get harder to justify, especially since the salary for the 27th pick in the draft will still be more than the second year salary for Porter Jr if he is moved to a regular contract.

We need to stop the wrong information that "bird rights of a expiring role player has value" - this is only true if we operate above cap but next summer we are below cap = having bird rights is worth 0.

If Masai paid a cost to get Kelly O, it's to evaluate for the rest of this season on fit - which is ridiculous for a rebuilding team needing assets from the draft. This is just a mini version of the Poeltl trade. Masai has learned nothing.

[greekman]

schroder was given away for free while kelly cost us a 1st round pick.

[Chandan]

Olynyk is a unrestricted free agent. And I don't see the difference between having 4 rookies (sending 2 to D league) in opposed to 3 rookies and Ochai, except none of those rookies have busted yet.

Maybe bust is a strong word. But another franchise has taken a crack at it and obviously didn't like what they saw.

I'd bet Olynyk signs again with the Raptors for a salary in the range of the room exception. As for the number of rookies, there are only 15 roster spots. First round picks have a fixed salary scale, so you can't put them in a two-way contract or Exhibit 10 deal. If the Raptors have four rookies, that means cutting guys you might prefer, say, like Porter Jr. Sure, so maybe you get rid of a couple o current players easily enough, but third and fourth get harder to justify, especially since the salary for the 27th pick in the draft will still be more than the second year salary for Porter Jr if he is moved to a regular contract.

We need to stop the wrong information that "bird rights of a expiring role player has value" - this is only true if we operate above cap but next summer we are below cap = having bird rights is worth 0.

If Masai paid a cost to get Kelly O, it's to evaluate for the rest of this season on fit - which is ridiculous for a rebuilding team needing assets from the draft. This is just a mini version of the Poeltl trade. Masai has learned nothing.

but... what if... and i say what if we sign lebron to a 60 mil contract the minute he becomes a free agent? then we'd be above the cap.

[islandboy53]

Olynyk is a unrestricted free agent. And I don't see the difference between having 4 rookies (sending 2 to D league) in opposed to 3 rookies and Ochai, except none of those rookies have busted yet.

Maybe bust is a strong word. But another franchise has taken a crack at it and obviously didn't like what they saw.

I'd bet Olynyk signs again with the Raptors for a salary in the range of the room exception. As for the number of rookies, there are only 15 roster spots. First round picks have a fixed salary scale, so you can't put them in a two-way contract or Exhibit 10 deal. If the Raptors have four rookies, that means cutting guys you might prefer, say, like Porter Jr. Sure, so maybe you get rid of a couple o current players easily enough, but third and fourth get harder to justify, especially since the salary for the 27th pick in the draft will still be more than the second year salary for Porter Jr if he is moved to a regular contract.

We need to stop the wrong information that "bird rights of a expiring role player has value" - this is only true if we operate above cap but next summer we are below cap = having bird rights is worth 0.

If Masai paid a cost to get Kelly O, it's to evaluate for the rest of this season on fit - which is ridiculous for a rebuilding team needing assets from the draft. This is just a mini version of the Poeltl trade. Masai has learned nothing.

Toronto is not going to operate below the cap next year. Olynyk fits well, he's the stretch big we've needed for a while. He will be resigned, probably at a figure similar to this year's number. Brown may well be traded, but similar salary will be coming back. Quickley will need to be paid, and you'll have 2 rookie salaries to add in . Even if Trent walks, that puts total salary more or less at the cap, but it will leave lots of room to manoeuvre below the tax line.

[islandboy53]

schroder was given away for free while kelly cost us a 1st round pick.

Schroder was moved to get out of his $13 mil salary next year. Olynyk AND Agbaji cost a 1st. Both good moves.