The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[nate33]

At this point I would prefer to go the pg route with Castle/Topic/ Sheppard. Hard to pick between them with the info we have now.

I am not sold on Sarr. His shot doesn't look good and a big part of what makes Embiid/ Jokic so good is their shot. Not to mention being than everyone else.

I definitely don't want another wing

Sarr's shot isn't great, but it doesn't look broken either. I think there is some potential there if he has the work ethic.

The thing about Sarr is he is probably the most agile 7'-1 guy I've seen since David Robinson. He could be a dominant rim protector while also being an elite perimeter defender who can lock up a PG after a switch late in the shot clock. If he can develop pick-and-pop ability, he could be elite.

I'm not saying we absolutely should draft him. I'm just saying he has to be considered very carefully before we eliminate him as a choice. There is an upside there that could make him a top 8 or so center in this league. With the freakish centers we are seeing in the NBA these days (Wemby, Chet, Embiid, Jokic, Porzingis, Davis, Gobert) it's getting harder and harder to match up unless you've got a guy like that yourself. The days of getting by with an average minutes-eating unskilled big man might be over.

[doclinkin]

I said in the Gafford thread but thought about it here. What if the front office is looking at Bronny James at that late 1st round spot?

Or if they wish to select him to use as trade sweetener for a team trying to entice his HOF pops to join them.

[nate33]

I said in the Gafford thread but thought about it here. What if the front office is looking at Bronny James at that late 1st round spot?

Or if they wish to select him to use as trade sweetener for a team trying to entice his HOF pops to join them.

It's a far-fetched scenario, perhaps, but it would also be really funny:

We draft Bronny.
Lebron tells Philly he will sign with them if they acquire Bronny.
We use our leverage to force Philly to trade us that unprotected 2028 Clippers pick for Bronny.

[9 and 20]

It was supposedly Terd's idea to bring Jordan to DC. Would fit right in with past practice to target Lebron. I bet Terd would want him to play in DC and cash in on the ticket and merch sales.

[pancakes3]

Any deal with Lebron would include ownership equity. Maybe he can take some of Laurene Powell's shares as part of his contract (would need Ted to open up his wallet and/or finance the transfer)

[doclinkin]

At this point I would prefer to go the pg route with Castle/Topic/ Sheppard. Hard to pick between them with the info we have now.

I am not sold on Sarr. His shot doesn't look good and a big part of what makes Embiid/ Jokic so good is their shot. Not to mention being than everyone else.

I definitely don't want another wing

Sarr's shot isn't great, but it doesn't look broken either. I think there is some potential there if he has the work ethic.

The thing about Sarr is he is probably the most agile 7'-1 guy I've seen since David Robinson. He could be a dominant rim protector while also being an elite perimeter defender who can lock up a PG after a switch late in the shot clock. If he can develop pick-and-pop ability, he could be elite.

I'm not saying we absolutely should draft him. I'm just saying he has to be considered very carefully before we eliminate him as a choice. There is an upside there that could make him a top 8 or so center in this league. With the freakish centers we are seeing in the NBA these days (Wemby, Chet, Embiid, Jokic, Porzingis, Davis, Gobert) it's getting harder and harder to match up unless you've got a guy like that yourself. The days of getting by with an average minutes-eating unskilled big man might be over.

I'd agree that Sarr is a remarkable specimen with untapped potential. I don't like his habits or instincts. His slide is swift and fluid but he doesn't like to get in front of anyone. Even in blocking shots he likes to let his man get past him so he can jump up and slap it away from the side. He'd be a much better defender if he trusted his ability to simply take up space.

But he's a kid. Maybe he learns. I just don't think players learn Big Man skills anymore. Too many turn out like Wiseman, phenomenal size and athleticism, but not utilizing it. Sarr looks like he is trying to be Wemby, with about half the talent. When he should be emulating Dream or someone who had both finesse and power.

I really wish we had a Big Man coach on the team that had enough of a reputation that the players would listen. If we want a coach who had both skills and size maybe we could recruit Pau to work on the bench for us. What's he doing nowadays?

[NatP4]

At this point I would prefer to go the pg route with Castle/Topic/ Sheppard. Hard to pick between them with the info we have now.

I am not sold on Sarr. His shot doesn't look good and a big part of what makes Embiid/ Jokic so good is their shot. Not to mention being bigger than everyone else.

I definitely don't want another wing

Thinking Castle will shoot up the board late. UConn is going to play deep into march, he’s only getting better and more confident each game. Think he ends up 4/5/6 range.

Sarr seems locked in at 1. Topic hasn’t dropped despite missing a month due to injury. Think he comes back to euroleague play and solidifies a top 3 spot. Risacher will ride the recent French prospect hype and stay in the top 3.

Just a wild (way too early guess):

1. Sarr (trading down)
2. Topic (take him)
3. Risacher (trading down)
4. Williams (trading down)
5: Castle (take him)
6: Holland (trade down)
7: Buzelis (take him)
8: Sheppard (take him)
9: Walter (trade down)
10: Dillingham (trade down)

Topic is really the only guy I personally view as worthy of a top 3 pick.

[payitforward]

Nate, you would take Sheppard top 3 over Sarr?

I don't know yet.

Sarr has almost limitless potential, but it's going to depend on his work ethic. He is a total project. I think any assessment of Sarr is going to have to involve more than just film. He needs to be interviewed. His former coaches need to be interviewed. It's really tough to do that portion of the evaluation as amateur draft enthusiast.

And then as a FO you have to have your plan as to when you want to be relevant. And do you want to roll the dice multiple times with high upsides or go for more ready to roll guys.

What I am saying is that this FO must have a process - and they will probably trust their processes.

Example from this board. If PIF was running the process they would trade down repeatedly to garner more picks (just an example). Then PIF would stick with his "process" long-term as it is a long-term numbers game.

I think I'd say that they would always consider trading down for mutiple picks. Whether you'd do it or not in any given case would depend on a bunch of particulars in that case.

In retrospect, obviously, it would be easy to justify moving down from pretty much any spot in the top ten -- & still winding up w/ a player as good or better than the guy you could have gotten at that original spot. But, of course, it's easy to do that in retrospect!

What's hard is to be even a little bit better than average in assessing talent -- consistently. E.g. in 2020, the guy taken at 12 is clearly better than every single player taken from 4-11. & better than the guy taken #2. &, for that matter, probably better than the other two earlier picks, the #1 & #3.

For that matter, the players picked at 18, 21, 25, & 30 that year are also clearly better than all the 4-11 guys & better than the 2d pick as well. H#ll, at least 6 guys taken in R2 that year have been as good as, or better than, that same bunch at the top. (Tho... maybe Deni's substantial jump this year would make him an exception.

It's like that, more or less, every year.

[dckingsfan]

I don't know yet.

Sarr has almost limitless potential, but it's going to depend on his work ethic. He is a total project. I think any assessment of Sarr is going to have to involve more than just film. He needs to be interviewed. His former coaches need to be interviewed. It's really tough to do that portion of the evaluation as amateur draft enthusiast.

And then as a FO you have to have your plan as to when you want to be relevant. And do you want to roll the dice multiple times with high upsides or go for more ready to roll guys.

What I am saying is that this FO must have a process - and they will probably trust their processes.

Example from this board. If PIF was running the process they would trade down repeatedly to garner more picks (just an example). Then PIF would stick with his "process" long-term as it is a long-term numbers game.

I think I'd say that they would always consider trading down for multiple picks. Whether you'd do it or not in any given case would depend on a bunch of particulars in that case.

In retrospect, obviously, it would be easy to justify moving down from pretty much any spot in the top ten -- & still winding up w/ a player as good or better than the guy you could have gotten at that original spot. But, of course, it's easy to do that in retrospect!

What's hard is to be even a little bit better than average in assessing talent -- consistently. E.g. in 2020, the guy taken at 12 is clearly better than every single player taken from 4-11. & better than the guy taken #2. &, for that matter, probably better than the other two earlier picks, the #1 & #3.

For that matter, the players picked at 18, 21, 25, & 30 that year are also clearly better than all the 4-11 guys & better than the 2d pick as well. H#ll, at least 6 guys taken in R2 that year have been as good as, or better than, that same bunch at the top. (Tho... maybe Deni's substantial jump this year would make him an exception.

It's like that, more or less, every year.

And that would be the basis for a process. I might not like or dislike the process but I would respect sticking with your process for a number of years (like you say, you would only need to hit 2 out of 6 years for it to work).

This FO seems to have a process, I don't think they necessarily want to tip their hat - so we are just going to have to wait and see what their process is.

[NatP4]

If Topic is off the board , I’d offer 2/3/4/5 for #10&#11 from OKC. Happily take whichever 2 of Buzelis/Sheppard/Castle/Filipowski/Clingan are there.

3+25 back to OKC for 10+11 seems pretty fair if Topic goes 2 and we land at 3.

[doclinkin]

If Topic is off the board , I’d offer 2/3/4/5 for #10&#11 from OKC. Happily take whichever 2 of Buzelis/Sheppard/Castle/Filipowski/Clingan are there.

3+25 back to OKC for 10+11 seems pretty fair if Topic goes 2 and we land at 3.

Somebody will need to convince me on Topić. Okay he's a 6'7" PG with good feel on offense. His weaknesses are noted as outside shooting and defense. And fouls. All of those can improve with work, but his physical profile may limit him on defense. I don't see blow-by athleticism. Physically I see a short armed longneck. Actually weirder than that, unless my eyes are wrong he's short armed and short-legged with a crazy long torso. Helps him with his balance and dribbling in traffic to have a low center of gravity for his height, but on defense he's not especially quick in lateral slides to stay in front of PGs in lower league Euro ball. Vs the blur-speed PGs of the NBA I see him as a probable liability.

Was playing against weaker competition, transferred to bet on himself then picked up a knee injury so we likely won't see much of him at that level before the draft. But the injury won't help with his lateral speed, unless he has a top notch specialist who fixes some mechanical weakness or something.

I can see him as a prospect if he slips. A potential steal if he slides down to our late pick. But to me he is out of the argument with that top pick. I'm willing to listen to the argument. Just don't read him as The Guy.

[doclinkin]

That said watching highlights there is no denying he is fun to watch. Can't get above the rim but finds angles and hesitation and uses his opponents as screens against themselves. Kid knows the game. I dunno. Convince me.

Watch on YouTube

[tontoz]

That said watching highlights there is no denying he is fun to watch. Can't get above the rim but finds angles and hesitation and uses his opponents as screens against themselves. Kid knows the game. I dunno. Convince me.

Watch on YouTube

That's just it, we don't have enough of a sample size to be convinced about these guys. All we can really do is say this guy looks like an option, this guy doesn't.

Looks like we have good options at pg but no one guy is a standout, at least right now.

[Frichuela]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Let's hope that late 1st rounder turns into gold!

[NatP4]

Argument for Topic: his numbers in the Adriatic league are on par with other NBA guys like Jokic, Boban, Petrusev, Jovic etc…

In 21/22, across all leagues he shot 33% from 3 and 86.7% from the free throw line. 59.6% TS 14.8 points per 36

In 22/23, across all leagues he shot 37% from 3 and 89% from the free throw line. 67.5% TS(!!) 22.9 points per 36

He’s struggled from 3 this year, but still 88% from the free throw line. 60% TS 19.1 points per 36.

Every level, he’s extremely efficient and an elite FT shooter. There’s zero reason for concern with the jump shot IMO. He’s not just a game managing pass first PG, he’s a catalyst and a legit 20ppg 60% TS scorer. 7 assists to 3 turnovers as an 18 year old playing pro ball. Extremely impressive.

And again, there’s exhibition games that his team played against NCAA teams earlier in the year, all on YouTube.

Great place to compare his athletic ability against top NCAA recruits. He does just fine defensively. His biggest flaw is simply resting on that end of the floor because he runs the show on O, but his basketball IQ is top shelf.

[pancakes3]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Let's hope that late 1st rounder turns into gold!

classic wizards luck to have a top 3 pick in a butt draft

[doclinkin]

That's just it, we don't have enough of a sample size to be convinced about these guys. All we can really do is say this guy looks like an option, this guy doesn't.

Looks like we have good options at pg but no one guy is a standout, at least right now.

Here's where I am at PG. I don't see a guy I'd want as a number one overall pick but if I was dialed in on picking a PG, I have preferences.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--rob-dillingham--juan-nunez--reed-sheppard--nikola-topic

Reed Sheppard is pushing into the conversation for me as a top option. I like the idea of him as apprentice to Tyus. The defensive numbers are what catch my eye. You never see a PG with those blocks numbers, and he gets his steals not solely from jumping lanes but from on-ball pressure. The fact that he has forced his way into the starting line-up on a star packed (and winning) team is meaningful. His ball-handling has been functional but in this number one role he has begun to show he's more than merely a ball manager.

Castle has the physical profile that the others can't match. Efficient with the ball, gets to the line at a good rate, takes care of the ball, tall and has the frame to add muscle. Has become more aggressive since coming back from injury and has taken a lead role on a team that has 2 senior guards ahead of him in minutes. (Aside: Cam Spencer can shoot, damn. Worth a look with a late pick as a sniper off the bench). He and Sheppard flip-flop in my head as top options at PG.

Juan Nuñez has played better than Topic, in a tougher league. And can shoot a little bit from outside, though his %'s have slipped lately. Shorter than Castle/Topić, but not short at 6'4". Rebounds, steals, does not foul. His FT% could be better, and he turns the ball over some, but still posts more assists/36 than the others. He will be a steal if he's picked up as late as where he is currently mocked. I'd happily pick him with that late 1st, myself.

Rob Dillingham. Has that razzle-dazzle. Not scared of the big shot, draws a lot of attention. He's slim and small and has missed the small-ball window by a couple years, but no question he is a dynamic scorer. Sweet Lou WIlliams or J Crawford level 6th man scorer. If you are behind by double digits this is the player you want coming into the game to bring you back in by himself.

Topić. Physical oddball, brainiac prodigy. He clearly only cares about basketball and will get better. Has that Serbian stubborn thing going for him. Tall for the position, in that weird salamander torso way. I'm damn curious how he shakes out. His FT% being so high suggests he will adapt to the NBA, but right now he can't hit an outside shot in Euro play. The league does not have a lot of room for PGs who can't spread the floor, unless you have a stretch Big who can help invert the court.

I think at this point I'd lean, umm, Castle. Castle or Sheppard. Sheppard if we are sure to re-sign Tyus.

[Hibachi_0]

For me, if we somehow have the 1st pick I think I'm going with Sarr, he's too intriguing and too athletic to just pass on him with. If we don't, and assuming Sarr has already been picked my priority order would be Castle > Topic >Reed > Dillingham. If we pick Sarr, and none of the mentioned guards is available (probably won't) I'm using the second 1st on Nuñez. If we pick a guard with our top pick, the second 1st goes for a big, possibly (still not sure about this) Almansa > Ware > Missi (not really sold on Edey or Clingan) and would still use the 2nd on Nuñez if available (or try to trade up for him).

[doclinkin]

Let me add one more guy to my PG/combo guard possibles: Ajay Mitchell of the UCSB Gauchos.

Efficient high volume scorer, playing against weak competition but with a 30% usage rate. This year's Brandin Podz or Jalen Wms 2nd round small school steal.

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

I don't know about the comparison, given that Podziemski went at 19 & Jalen Williams was a lottery pick, but he does look like a prospect to be sure.