Off-season Deal: Duncan Robinson to Utah

[Bentley1225]

This deal is for Heat to get under tax apron and for Ainge to add yet another 1st round pick

To Utah
-Duncan Robinson (1 year, $19.4 million plus $9.9 million guaranteed)
-2030 Miami 1st round pick (Top 10 protected; 2031 Top 10 protected or 2031 2nd)

To Miami
-2029 Utah 2nd round pick
-2030 Utah 2nd round pick

Why?
-The Jazz have $46 million in practical cap space assuming they renounce all incumbent free agents. Robinson gives them a wing shooter

-The Heat are projected to be $13 million over tax apron and they have 4 guys on player options (Martin, Love, Richardson, Bryant). They can replace Robison in 2024 1st round draft if they want as a cheaper option.

[Ell Curry]

I think some of the cap space teams like Orlando, Charlotte, Detroit or San Antonio would take Robinson on and even send a couple 2nds Miami's way. Not everyone can sign Tobias Harris and the free agency market is overall pretty weak.

Orlando could use him as a shooting with with Wagner, Black and Suggs making it easier to hide him on defence and get their team closer to middle of the pack on offence to go with their good defence, Detroit needs shooting around Cade, Ivey, Duren and Thompson (even with Grimes there now), Charlotte just needs a playable wing or 2 at this point (Lamelo-2024 1st-Robinson-Miller-Bridges-GrantWilliams-MarkWilliams-Richards looks better than usual) and San Antonio gets some spacing for Wemby and if they end up drafting a young guard like Topic, that might be the best use of their cap room (Topic/Tre Jones at PG, Vassell/Robinson/Keldon on the wing and Wemby/Sochan/Collins as the bigs).

[theBigLip]

I think some of the cap space teams like Orlando, Charlotte, Detroit or San Antonio would take Robinson on and even send a couple 2nds Miami's way. Not everyone can sign Tobias Harris and the free agency market is overall pretty weak.

Orlando could use him as a shooting with with Wagner, Black and Suggs making it easier to hide him on defence and get their team closer to middle of the pack on offence to go with their good defence, Detroit needs shooting around Cade, Ivey, Duren and Thompson (even with Grimes there now), Charlotte just needs a playable wing or 2 at this point (Lamelo-2024 1st-Robinson-Miller-Bridges-GrantWilliams-MarkWilliams-Richards looks better than usual) and San Antonio gets some spacing for Wemby and if they end up drafting a young guard like Topic, that might be the best use of their cap room (Topic/Tre Jones at PG, Vassell/Robinson/Keldon on the wing and Wemby/Sochan/Collins as the bigs).

I hope he’s on Detroit’s radar. Try to get OG, Bridges, Harris first, but Robinson would be a good consolation prize

[babyjax13]

If Miami didn't pay to dump him now I'm not sure why they woupd later.

[oldncreaky]

I think some of the cap space teams like Orlando, Charlotte, Detroit or San Antonio would take Robinson on and even send a couple 2nds Miami's way. Not everyone can sign Tobias Harris and the free agency market is overall pretty weak.

Orlando could use him as a shooting with with Wagner, Black and Suggs making it easier to hide him on defence and get their team closer to middle of the pack on offence to go with their good defence, Detroit needs shooting around Cade, Ivey, Duren and Thompson (even with Grimes there now), Charlotte just needs a playable wing or 2 at this point (Lamelo-2024 1st-Robinson-Miller-Bridges-GrantWilliams-MarkWilliams-Richards looks better than usual) and San Antonio gets some spacing for Wemby and if they end up drafting a young guard like Topic, that might be the best use of their cap room (Topic/Tre Jones at PG, Vassell/Robinson/Keldon on the wing and Wemby/Sochan/Collins as the bigs).

Agree

By July, Robinson will have 2 years remaining @ 19M and $19.9M, roughly 13% of the cap --- plus his last year has an Early termination clause so that the guarantee is only $10M for his last season

That for a player who shoots 40% from 3 on good volume and creates space for his teammates because of his gravity

I think we have to stop thinking of his contract as really negative, and if it is negative at all, it is trending towards at least neutral

[Ell Curry]

Agree

By July, Robinson will have 2 years remaining @ 19M and $19.9M, roughly 13% of the cap --- plus his last year has an Early termination clause so that the guarantee is only $10M for his last season

That for a player who shoots 40% from 3 on good volume and creates space for his teammates because of his gravity

I think we have to stop thinking of his contract as really negative, and if it is negative at all, it is trending towards at least neutral

End of the day, there are 30 teams and 3-4 of them are gonna need a shooter, or a passable starting center or a PG who can run an offence without killing you and guys like uh, Duncan Robinson, Gafford or Tre Jones are thus not gonna be net negatives for more than 25 teams or so. They're not exciting, but if your stars need shooting, a rim runner or someone to set the table and you have none of that on your roster, a proven guy in his late 20s on a short deal for low-starter money is a good get if you're only giving up a pick past like #20 or so, and if it's for a couple of 2nds it's a steal. Free agency is overrated.

[Bentley1225]

If Miami didn't pay to dump him now I'm not sure why they woupd later.

In adding the Rozier money and dealing the expiring Lowry, it changed their cap for next season.

[dubasilva]

I don't see a reason to do this unless the Heat is going to open cap space to sign someone else.

[Mavrelous]

He's basically on Bertans like contract next year, shouldn't cost a 1st to dump, costs a 2nd if used as expiring matching salary.

[BBallFreak]

If Miami didn't pay to dump him now I'm not sure why they woupd later.

In adding the Rozier money and dealing the expiring Lowry, it changed their cap for next season.

Correct, but you have to consider that the front office knew that and did it anyway. Robinson, given his performance and what will be left of his contract, isn't negative value and we're not giving up a first to dump him. If Utah wants him, they can pay for him.

[Bentley1225]

If Miami didn't pay to dump him now I'm not sure why they woupd later.

In adding the Rozier money and dealing the expiring Lowry, it changed their cap for next season.

Correct, but you have to consider that the front office knew that and did it anyway. Robinson, given his performance and what will be left of his contract, isn't negative value and we're not giving up a first to dump him. If Utah wants him, they can pay for him.

It depends how Miami performs over next 4 months. Perhaps they roll it back and pay the tax if they are at least competitive in making it to 2nd round. If they don’t get out of the play in then I’d expect they deal Robinson for a 2nd. I figured a projected 1st for 2nds in returns in 7 draft years from now when Pat Riley is dead was a likely scenario but Robinson could be dealt for a 2nd I guess.

[Knickfan1982]

He's basically on Bertans like contract next year, shouldn't cost a 1st to dump, costs a 2nd if used as expiring matching salary.

Unless a player is toxic or has an absolutely massive contract I don't think a player on an expiring deal needs an asset to move. They are either necessary salary filler that allows a bigger trade to go down or being used to take on longer deals in exchange for assets.

[NYG]

Heat
Jimmy Butler $34,848,340
Bam Adebayo $29,000,000
Tyler Herro $24,924,126
Terry Rozier $24,924,126
Duncan Robinson $19,406,000
Caleb Martin $7,126,900
Kevin Love $4,027,525
Jaime Jaquez Jr. $3,685,800
Josh Richardson $3,051,153
Thomas Bryant $2,845,342
Nikola Jovic $2,464,200
Orlando Robinson $2,120,693
Dru Smith $2,120,693
Haywood Highsmith Cap Hold $2,377,671
15th Overall Pick $4,274,280

Total Salary $167,196,849
Cap Space -$25,196,849
Tax Space $5,403,151
1st Apron Space $12,403,151
2nd Apron Space $22,903,151
Cap Holds $0

[tmorgan]

I’d take Duncan Robinson for the Pistons. Wouldn’t pay for him, but wouldn’t charge Miami to take him, either. He could log 20 minutes a game as a 2 or 3 pretty easily, and we have the rebounders to cover for him there. Motion shooters are always gonna have a place on a roster.

[BlazersBroncos]

Duncan has bounced back enough that he shouldnt cost to move - especially a FRP.

Think if MIA wanted to shave $$$ DET would just take him into cap space. Would be who they thought Joe was gonna be - but better.

[gswhoops]

In adding the Rozier money and dealing the expiring Lowry, it changed their cap for next season.

Correct, but you have to consider that the front office knew that and did it anyway. Robinson, given his performance and what will be left of his contract, isn't negative value and we're not giving up a first to dump him. If Utah wants him, they can pay for him.

It depends how Miami performs over next 4 months. Perhaps they roll it back and pay the tax if they are at least competitive in making it to 2nd round. If they don’t get out of the play in then I’d expect they deal Robinson for a 2nd. I figured a projected 1st for 2nds in returns in 7 draft years from now when Pat Riley is dead was a likely scenario but Robinson could be dealt for a 2nd I guess.

I don't really track how swapping a 1st for 2nds is good for Miami just because the 1st is a long ways off, especially when the 2nds are also a long way off.

[vege]

Duncan Robinson is no longer a negative value player.

He was last season when he was playing poorly, but he's a 6'8 with a 7'1" wingspan 40% 3 point shooter and he's been playing solid defense.

He is going to cost you a 1st to acquire not the other way around.

That's the perfect example on why you don't trade a player when his value is at it's lowest.

[hugepatsfan]

Heat are about $5M below the 2nd apron right now with 13 players signed. That's with Martin's $7.1M player option that he'll obviously decline though. So they'll end up with like $12M to fill 3 roster spots.

If they want to keep Martin and remain under the 2nd apron, then they might have to do something with Drob, but they won't need to dump him outright like this. They can take back some salary in the deal which would likely negate the need to give a 1st.

I don't think DRob is this albatross or anything, but I don't think MIA is going to be able to move him into cap space for positive value like some here have suggested. Must by the amount of money being dumped into cap space, that costs assets. But MIA has no reason to pay this price to do it.

[BBallFreak]

Heat are about $5M below the 2nd apron right now with 13 players signed. That's with Martin's $7.1M player option that he'll obviously decline though. So they'll end up with like $12M to fill 3 roster spots.

If they want to keep Martin and remain under the 2nd apron, then they might have to do something with Drob, but they won't need to dump him outright like this. They can take back some salary in the deal which would likely negate the need to give a 1st.

I don't think DRob is this albatross or anything, but I don't think MIA is going to be able to move him into cap space for positive value like some here have suggested. Must by the amount of money being dumped into cap space, that costs assets. But MIA has no reason to pay this price to do it.

I, personally, recognize the value of the cap space, but the asking price (as you mentioned) is too high and I don't see Miami paying to just dump a positive asset. I could see us breaking his salary into smaller pieces that could actually contribute, but not just to dump him. He's an excellent player. I'd rather just keep the guy...

[jazzfan1971]

Heat are about $5M below the 2nd apron right now with 13 players signed. That's with Martin's $7.1M player option that he'll obviously decline though. So they'll end up with like $12M to fill 3 roster spots.

If they want to keep Martin and remain under the 2nd apron, then they might have to do something with Drob, but they won't need to dump him outright like this. They can take back some salary in the deal which would likely negate the need to give a 1st.

I don't think DRob is this albatross or anything, but I don't think MIA is going to be able to move him into cap space for positive value like some here have suggested. Must by the amount of money being dumped into cap space, that costs assets. But MIA has no reason to pay this price to do it.

I, personally, recognize the value of the cap space, but the asking price (as you mentioned) is too high and I don't see Miami paying to just dump a positive asset. I could see us breaking his salary into smaller pieces that could actually contribute, but not just to dump him. He's an excellent player. I'd rather just keep the guy...

This.

Besides, I didn't love the odds of this being the Jazz trading 2 seconds for one.