2024 Mock (but it's bad): 1-58

[babyjax13]

Tier 1 (greater than 40% chance of drafting an eventual NBA starter)
1. ATL: Zaccharie Rissacher
Rissacher is 6-10 and can shoot, but he is not an elite shooter and I don't think has the touch to be. Handle is loose and you can tell that it is his lack of touch. Shows some passing vision but the impact of that will be mitigated a bit by his lack of handle. I like his defense, I think he is intense and smart on that end and will be an impactful roleplayer for a team. I would rather he not go first, but I think the floor is rather high and if his handle develops his ceiling may be higher than I am giving him credit for.
(shades of Tayshaun Prince w/less ball handling, Wesley Johnson)
[other picks: none]

2. WAS: Alexandre Sarr
Sarr's mobility and defensive upside are intriguing, but his upside as a #1 caliber prospect, even in this draft, is dependent on your assessment of his shot. I think it is at least a few years away from projecting out to the NBA 3-point line with any reliability, which means he is a mobile and impactful rim protector who is a poor rebounder and lacks physicality. I'm not saying I dislike him, just that he is a project and I am not sure a team in the top-3 should be drafting someone who probably won't pop in his rookie year.
(shades of Jonathan Isaac, Myles Turner, Eddie Griffin)
[other picks: Carlton Carrington, PJ Hall]

3. HOU (BRK): Reed Shepperd
I think Sheppard has some playmaking upside that wasn't displayed at Kentucky. By the numbers he is an elite pick and roll player, an elite shooter, and a very good defender. In the NBA some of this is not going to pop quite as much, but the pick and roll play - so long as it is real - will be even more valuable.
[other picks: Jalen Bridges]

4. SAS: Matas Buzelis
At this point in the draft teams must choose between hypothetical skillsets from players with interesting physical tools, or actual skillsets from players that lack those tools. Buzelis is long, competitive, hypothetically a good playmaker for his size who is also hypothetically a good shooter. There are two player comps that always result in issues for me, one is Jimmy Butler (see Stephon Castle) and the other is Lamar Odom. The ideal outcome for Buzelis is a big power forward who can handle the ball, pass, provide some limited rim-protection and hit an open three (don't think his statistical profile is suggestive of a future knockdown shooter). The player of that archetype that these guys often remind me of is Odom, but he had an incredible feel for the game most of these other big "point forwards" don't have (I've gone for players who I think have offensive upsides that are a bit more 'attainable'). The issue with Buzelis is that he can't currently shoot - the rumor is that he has shot well in workouts so I have him rising rather substantially - but I think a better range for him is 12-20.
(shades of Chandler Parsons, Andrei Kirilenko [on offense], Darius Miles).
[other picks: Matas Buzelis, Oso Ighodoro, Juan Nunez]

5. DET: Donovan Clingan
Clingan's appeal is great rim protection, great rebounding, and good passing for his position. Poeltl and Bogut comparisons are probably overused, but he does remind me in some respects of the Utah centers of yore. Questions remain about his ability to play starter's minutes and whether he will be impactful on offense. Right now I see a player who should be similar in impact to Poeltl and Mitchell Robinson as he develops an NBA-ready body.
(shades of Jakob Poeltl, Chris Kaman)
[other picks: Antonio Reeves]

6. CHA: Stephon Castle
Castle has great feel for the game. He is an unselfish connective passer who can do some work with the ball in his hands. He is not an elite ballhandler and his shot needs a lot of work. Some players can do that, and I don't think Castle has poor touch in other areas of his game. Solid defender who is fundamentally sound and follows rotations. A team needs to value him for what he is (connective passer who is a plus defender) rather than expecting him to be Jimmy Butler - that comparison always leads to disappointment.
[other picks: Adem Bona]

7. POR: Ron Holland
Holland is all energy and effort with very good physical tools and underdeveloped swing skills. His shot has come a long way in the Gleague (at least, the form has) but he still shoots very poor percentages. I think, eventually, he becomes passable from three. He does not have an advanced handle or footwork and plays a bit of bully ball, but he's effective in transition and a good run-jump athlete. He does have strange moments where he gets a bit ground-bound, he seems to need a bit of a runway for his athleticism to really pop. I think this means he will be a good player in transition but less effective in the half-court. If the shot comes around, the game slows down a little, and his handle gets more advanced he could be the best player in this class ... but that's three big swing-skills to reach his maximum outcome. If he doesn't shoot, doesn't handle the ball, and doesn't process the game better - what is he? I would argue...not an NBA player.
(shades of Jeff Green, Miles Bridges, Desmond Mason)
[other picks: Tristan da Silva, Bobbi Klintman, Izan Almansa]

8. SAS (TOR): Devin Carter
Tremendous POA defender. Extremely physical with a long reach for his size, good anticipation, and high motor. Offensively I don't think he can really run an offense, but does offer secondary playmaking. I also do not believe in the shot, it went in in college, but the form is odd and I worry that it does not project out further and that it is a bit slow.
(shades of Derrick White, De'Anthony Melton)

9. MEM: Cody Williams
His shooting is a bit of a mirage. He shoots at low volume and is a mid-shooter from the line. I think that is a recipe for a guy who is a threat in the NBA but not elite, maybe even below average. Part of that is the setup with his legs, he has a narrow base and needs time to get it off, an NBA team should be able to do a lot to fix that. With some physical development he should draw some fouls and get to the rim in the NBA, I don't think he has the best touch but it is not terrible. Defensively very toolsy.
(shades of Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Tim Thomas)
[other picks: Baylor Schiermann]

10. UTA: Nikola Topic
Have not watched a ton, but my primary observation is that he has a pretty unique skill to dictate the pace of a game and manipulate defenses. I see some of what Haliburton does by using positioning, deceptive movement, and his eyes to manipulate defenses and generate open looks (by his eyes, I mean you don't know if he is looking at a player because he will pass it to them, or if he is looking at them to manipulate the defense --- Ginobili also had this). I don't quite have him on par with Brandon Miller as a prospect, but I am higher on him than earlier in the year (this could be Stockholm Syndrome). His shooting needs to improve and he lacks the shiftiness of some elite point guards.
(shades of Tyrese Haliburton, Evan Turner, Goran Dragic)
[other picks: Yvis Missi, Pacome Dadiet]

11. CHI: Tidjane Saluan
I absolutely believe in Saluan's shot. He is a fantastic straight-line athlete, less-so laterally, but his body is also still developing. Doesn't have a good handle but can make a straight-line drive. Defensively can be disruptive but often gets caught ball-watching. I don't think he lacks effort, just needs more awareness.
[other picks: Melvin Ajinca]
[other picks: none]

Tier 2 (greater than 30% chance of drafting an eventual NBA starter
12. OKC (HOU): Kel'el Ware
Ware is a good shooter and has all the physical tools you could ask for. He looks passive at times and he has played in an antiquated Mike Woodsen offense that doesn't do him favors (how many post ups in the high post does he run?). But with the athletic testing and shooting + good productivity in college I think he makes sense for Memphis if Clingan is off the board. I expect Ware to be an acceptable three point shooter who can rim-run. A lot of the other stuff won't translate and if he tries it, it will make him less valuable on offense (see Christian Wood).
(shades of Myles Turner, Christian Wood, Thon Maker)
[other picks: none]

13. SAC: Dalton Knecht
Knecht is a physical scorer with a projectable shot. He is also old and played most of his college career at a smaller school so it is difficult to guess where his ceiling is. My worry about him is that his isolation and off the bounce shooting numbers are pretty bad, so if that's the case, he needs to be an elite off-ball shooter and he doesn't have elite speed to create separation (though perhaps he can with physicality). I'm not all the way out, I just think he might be a different player than people are anticipating once he transitions to the NBA.

14. POR (GSW): Tristan da Silva
Suboptimal footspeed for a wings (especially laterally) but big, great shooter, good passer for his size, crafty, and smart. Defensively he will get blown by some but compete, offensively he might not be able to reliably create space woth a live dribble, but he should create *some* offense with the ball on the floor as a secondary creator. Reminds me of a slower version of Harrison Barnes with a bit more playmaking.
(Shades of late career Marvin Williams, Saddiq Bey, Harrison Barnes)

15. MIA: Rob Dillingham
Dillingham is a cerebral player who always seems to be in the right place. Extremely quick, good shooter, can attack a defense and create opportunities with his handle. He isn't a pure distributor but he is still more of a point guard than a 'combo guard.' Defense will obviously be an issue with his slight frame, but I thought he played passing lanes well and was generally in the right position. One thing that probably should be talked about with him is his love of the long midrange jumper. He has a lot of dribble moves into bad shots and he will need to cut those out unless he is elite at making them (and he might be).
(shades of Kemba Walker, Aaron Brooks [but that random good year])
[other picks: Jonathan Mogbo]

16. PHI: Tyler Smith
Smith has a beautiful stroke and - to me - looked like the most skilled player in OTE with Ausar and Amen. He also, IMO, was the best player for the Ignite. He is a fantastic shooter with some ability to put the ball on the floor. He is pretty athletic and was very good at anticipating offensive rebounds for putbacks. Very good transition finisher, can finish on backdoor lobs, can dunk over people in the gleague even at 19. He is tall, he has a good wingspan, he has a great vertical, he is skilled, he can really shoot ... he is everything teams should want in a power forward.
[other picks: Trey Alexander]

17. LAL: Ja'Kobe Walter
I think Walter's early-season shooting is more real than the remainder of his season. I don't know if it was injury or not having a team context where he could operate off-ball enough, but I like him as a 6th/7th man or a 5th starter who is a threat to score off-ball. [other picks: Bronny James]

18. ORL: Kyshawn George
I'm much higher on George than the consensus and I think NBA teams will catch up. Imagine that there are several 'filters' that are predictive of success. I would argue that a player who is 6-8 and can be described as a plus shooter and plus passer has a great chance of being an impact player in the NBA. The three closest players to this archetype - which I think is one of, if not the most valuable in the NBA - are Kyshawn George, Tristan da Silva, and Cody Williams. Williams is younger with better physical tools, but I think George is more skilled. I do think Williams goes before George but I would feel more comfortable with Kyshawn.
(shades of Joe Ingles, Khris Middleton, Mike Miller) [other picks: Jaylen Wells]

19. TOR (IND): Jared McCain [other picks: Pacome Dadiet]

Tier 3 (less than 20% chance of drafting an eventual NBA starter)
20. CLE: Da'Ron Holmes [other picks: none]
21. NOP (MIL): Isaiah Collier [other picks: none]
22. PHX: Kevin McCullar [other picks: none]
23. MIL (NOP): Nikola Đurišić [other picks: Terrence Shannon Jr., Tristan Newton]
24. NYK (DAL): Ryan Dunn [other picks: Zach Edey, Dillon Jones]
25. NYK: Zach Edey
26. WAS (LAC): Carlton Carrington
27. MIN: Jaylon Tyson [other picks: Ajay Mitchell]
28. DEN: Terrence Shannon Jr. [other picks: Matthew Cleveland]
29. UTA (OKC): Johnny Furphy
30. BOS: Kyle Filipowski [other picks: Noah Penda]

31. TOR (DET): Yvis Missi
32. UTA (WAS): Pacome Dadiet
33. MIL (POR): Bobi Klintman
34. POR (CHA): AJ Johnson
35. SAS: Oso Ighodaro
36. IND (TOR): Cam Christie [other picks: Enrique Freeman, Trentyn Flowers]
37. MIN (MEM): Ajay Mitchell
38. NYK (UTA): Dillon Jones
39. MEM (BRK): Baylor Schiermann
40. POR (ATL): Izan Almansa
41. PHI (CHI): Trey Alexander
42. CHA (HOU): Adem Bona
43. MIA: Jonathan Mogbo

Tier 4 (less than 10% chance of drafting an eventual NBA starter)
44. HOU (MIN): Jalen Bridges
45. SAC: Melvin Ajinca
46. LAC (IND): KJ Simpson
47. ORL: Jaylen Wells
48. SAS (LAL): Juan Nunez
49. IND (CLE): Enrique Freeman
50. IND (NOP): Trentyn Flowers
51. WAS (PHX): PJ Hall
52. GSW (MIL): Tyler Kolek [other picks: none]
53. DET (NYK): Antonio Reeves
54. BOS (DAL): Noah Penda
55. LAL (LAC): Bronny James
56. DEN (MIN): Matthew Cleveland
57. MIL (OKC): Tristen Newton
58. DAL (BOS): Keshad Johnson

Bubble: Reece Beekman, Hunter Dickenson, Harrison Ingram, David Jones, Thierry Darlan, Judah Mintz, Boogie Ellis, Justin Edwards, Cam Spencer, Ulrich Chomche, Isaiah Crawford, Riley Minix, Ariel Hukporti.

2025: Aday Mara, Elliot Cadeau (late first to UDFA), Kylan Boswell (2nd round), Alex Karaban (late first to mid second), Robbie Avila, Tyrese Proctor, Aaron Bradshaw, Mackenzie Mgbako, Zvonimir Ivisic, DJ Wagner, Dink Pate, Hansen Yang, Otega Oweh, Grant Nelson, Kanaan Carlyle, Kwame Evans, Garway Dual, Jamal Shead, Jaxson Robinson, Coleman Hawkins, Michael Ayayi, Tyon Grant-Foster, Hunter Sallis, Nique Clifford, Trevon Brazil, Wesley Cardet Jr., Wooga Poplar, Ugonna Onyenso

[clyde21]

Livingston already drafted

[babyjax13]

Bold = I feel good about this player reaching their 'plausible high-end outcome')

Big Board (plausible high-end outcomes)
Subject to change, have seen everyone play a full game other than Juan Nunez. Functionally I expect probably 1:3 players in the top tiers to reach their 'high end' outcomes projected here.

Tier 1 (future MVP candidate):
no one

Tier 2 (all NBA + multi-time all star):
no one

Tier 3 (multi-time all-star):
Alexandre Sarr
Kyshawn George

Tier 4 (maybe an all-star, probably a good starter):
Zaccharie Rissacher
Nikola Topic
Tyler Smith
Ron Holland
Cody Williams
Stephon Castle
Rob Dillingham
Reed Sheppard
Matas Buzelis
Tidjane Salaun

Tier 5 (solid starter):
Tristan da Silva
Donovan Clingan
Dalton Knecht
Jared McCain
Kel'el Ware
Zach Edey
Ja'Kobe Walter
Isaiah Collier

Tier 6 (Low-end starter/high-end bench player)
Devin Carter
Carlton Carrington
Nikola Đurišić
Johnny Furphy
Pacome Dadiet
Yvis Missi

Tier 7 (high-end bench player, 6th/7th man)
Kyle Filipowski
Kevin McCullar
Oso Ighodaro
Trey Alexander
KJ Simpson
Ajay Mitchell

Tier 8 (solid rotation player, 7th-9th man)
DaRon Holmes
Jaylon Tyson
AJ Johnson
Terrence Shannon Jr.
Cam Christie
Baylor Schiermann
Bobi Klintman
Izan Almansa
Adem Bona
Juan Nunez
Dillon Jones
Jaylen Wells
Matthew Cleveland
Melvin Ajinca
Jalen Bridges
Justin Edwards
Trentyn Flowers

Tier 9 (end of rotation, 9th-10th man)
PJ Hall
Tyler Kolek
Antonio Reeves
Ryan Dunn
Tristen Newton
Jonathan Mogbo
Keshad Johnson

Tier 10 (fringe-NBA player)
Malique Lewis
Noah Penda
Cam Spencer
Jamal Shead
Judah Mintz
Reece Beekman

The rest:
Harrison Ingram
Isaiah Crawford
Hunter Dickenson
David Jones
Pelle Larson
Boogie Ellis
Ulrich Chomche

[HadAnEffectHere]

Is there literally anything Matas does well other than being tall.

[babyjax13]

Is there literally anything Matas does well other than being tall.

I think he will be a good shooter, very fluid for his height, I think he's going to be a power forward who puts the ball on the floor, shoots well, and as he fills out will be probably below average defensively.

[babyjax13]

Updated, still more guys I need to see that likely make it into the mock, so the back end of this are more likely to be UDFA. Some guys that I've watched but are placed more based on initial impression than an eval based on a few games (Ivisic, Kyshawn George, Brazil). Still, I'm getting closer to having something plausible, I think.

[babyjax13]

Bumping my own mock complete with hot takes like Tristan da Silva in the top-10 and Chomche going undrafted. I've tried to track it relatively close to my big board rather than trying to keep it close to consensus mocks, but I don't know that my evaluations outside of a few guys are that far off from the consensus (Kyshawn George I've moved out of the lottery due to intel on Saluan and Carter rising, but I'd still take him top-3 in this draft).