NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[iggymcfrack]

And you don't care that Mavs starters are non-stop injured? They had 30 diffent startin lineups, OKC had 6 and Denver 9. Kinda mind boggling, don't you think? How many wins would OKC had, if 2nd and 3rd option would have missed 40+ games and all others 10+? Just look at OKC 2 years back and you will see the answer. And look at SGA's +/- 2 years back too. But yes, forget the context of the numbers, just + /- matters.

Look at lineup most used by the Mavs and tell me, who should handle the ball, if not Luka?

Considering everything it's a miracle that Mavs are 7th.

I’m not saying Luka shouldn’t be the primary ball handler. I’m saying he should move the ball a lot faster when he gets it instead of self indulgently dribbling for 8 seconds doing nothing. Jokic has more touches than Luka, but he doesn’t have anywhere near as much time with the ball because he’s always looking to get the next action going.

Also we saw 2 years ago what Jokić looks like with everyone injured and constantly shuffling lineups. He led the Nuggets to a +8.4 NetRtg with a much worse supporting cast. Luka has Kyrie and Lively and Exum and the Mavs still have a +2.2 NetRtg with him on the floor. That’s exactly the same as it was last year when the Mavs didn’t qualify for the play-in. They’re only doing better this year in the non-Luka minutes. I wonder has anyone ever finished top 3 in the MVP race with that bad of a NetRtg? I can’t think of anyone off the top of my head.

Look at how many minutes have designated starters Luka/Kyrie/Exum and Lively played together? 26 minutes. But hey, they have + 61 netrtg together. The highest number is 99 minutes for the most used Mavs lineup, with DJJ and Grant. Second most is 63 minutes with Luka/Green/THJ/Grant and Lively. Kinda difficult to develop chemistry, if you don't play together, don't you think?

So it's 26 minutes vs. 580 of Thunder and 654 of Denver.

SGA had -6.8 before he got Chet and G-Will. And if those 2 get injured, we will quickly see how much better SGA really is, may bet is not much.

Shai’s played 973 possessions without Chet and Jalen this year. The Thunder have a point differential of +11.6 in those minutes.

[AleksandarN]

i can't help but feel like SGA should really be running away with the MVP right now. Like I get the argument for Jokic, oh he is Denver's offense, he does things no one else can do

But considering the position SGA plays, I would argue he's as impactful of a guard as Jokic is impactful a center, and right now OKC is ahead of Denver (even if it's just a small lead) in the standings. If OKC finishes with that top 2 seed, while Denver maybe dips off a little closer to playoffs with a 4th seed finish, SGA would 100% deserve it.

HOWEVER, even today, the argument for SGA just off his pure #s is very much there.

Just do a side by side comparison, Jokic's VORP gets massively inflated due to his position and rebounding. According to BPM Jokic is #1 in DBPM, but nothing actually supports that as true. However, SGA is #2 in VORP right now as a guard, #4 in DBPM (which will be 3 because Embiid will fall off the list), leads the league in steals which shows the impact he has on defense. SGA is 1st in Offensive Win Share, 5th in defensive Win Share. He beats out Jokic on both of these crucial categories which measure that his impact towards winning might just be better than Jokic even if Jokic is a BPM monster. Jokic and SGA have almost exactly the same WS/48. Once again though, Jokic is a Center which gets inflation in these stats, SGA is pretty much matching the impact Jokic has in a lot of ways as a guard which is unbelievably impressive.

I don’t see Denver being as low as the 4th seed by the end of the season. Denver has the easiest strength of schedule going into the allstar break. With only one back to back left in the last couple of months of the season. Has way more home games than road games left. They will be top 2 in the west when it is all said and done.

[AleksandarN]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

Jamal Murray got injured. I see the Nuggets struggling to stay afloat. Their roster is already pretty sub-par without Murray its flat out garbage.

I think SGA's odds of winning MVP went up a lot.

This Murray injury isn’t some career threatening injury. Jamal will likely miss this game tonight. Let’s not act like he going to miss the rest of season. Denver has the easiest schedule going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver takes over the lead in the west by the end February.

[Woodsanity]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

Jamal Murray got injured. I see the Nuggets struggling to stay afloat. Their roster is already pretty sub-par without Murray its flat out garbage.

I think SGA's odds of winning MVP went up a lot.

This Murray injury isn’t some career threatening injury. Jamal will likely miss this game tonight. Let’s not act like he going to miss the rest of season. Denver has the easiest schedule going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver takes over the lead in the west by the end February.

He looked really bad last game. Not sure how severe his injury is but he did miss a lot of games early in the season. We will see how much time he misses. Actually he might not miss much time at all due to all star break.

[Kurtz]

The narrative is going to be to SGA favor if Kawhi does not catch up. Lots of media are worrying about Jokic gets ahead of Durant, Curry, and walks his way to top 10. The points they can use for SGA include:
1. Jokic's team will have a worse standing compared to last season, while OKC made a huge jump;
2. SGA's advanced stats are simply amazing, by any standards; He has about the same TS% with Jokic and Embiid as a gurad.
3. H2H against Jokic
4. He has been healthy and consistent.
Considering most of them are legit, I have no problem if OKC finishes ahead of Denver.

Jamal Murray got injured. I see the Nuggets struggling to stay afloat. Their roster is already pretty sub-par without Murray its flat out garbage.

I think SGA's odds of winning MVP went up a lot.

This Murray injury isn’t some career threatening injury. Jamal will likely miss this game tonight. Let’s not act like he going to miss the rest of season. Denver has the easiest schedule going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver takes over the lead in the west by the end February.

22nd easiest. In the same cluster as 2 of the teams they're competing against - OKC, Minny: https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

[HotRocks34]

No real changes here despite the ongoing Denver health woes and losing streak or because of the straw poll.


thug life emojis

[AleksandarN]

Jamal Murray got injured. I see the Nuggets struggling to stay afloat. Their roster is already pretty sub-par without Murray its flat out garbage.

I think SGA's odds of winning MVP went up a lot.

This Murray injury isn’t some career threatening injury. Jamal will likely miss this game tonight. Let’s not act like he going to miss the rest of season. Denver has the easiest schedule going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver takes over the lead in the west by the end February.

22nd easiest. In the same cluster as 2 of the teams they're competing against - OKC, Minny: https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Wierd they have the nuggets as the easiest schedule. I wonder where they got their info. I know Denver has more home games left and fewest back to backs with only 1 left in the next two months.

Read on Twitter

[AleksandarN]

This Murray injury isn’t some career threatening injury. Jamal will likely miss this game tonight. Let’s not act like he going to miss the rest of season. Denver has the easiest schedule going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver takes over the lead in the west by the end February.

22nd easiest. In the same cluster as 2 of the teams they're competing against - OKC, Minny: https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Wierd they have the nuggets as the easiest schedule. I wonder where they got their info. I know Denver has more home games left and fewest back to backs with only 1 left in the next two months.

Read on Twitter

Edit: I think you mean 22nd hardest schedule remaining meaning 8th easiest.

[TheShow2021]

I'm a Jokic fan but Shai's NetRtg stats are ridiculous:

NetRtg
9.9. Chet off
10.44. Jalen off
8.62 both off

Jokic:
4.4. Murray off

[QPR]

I've lost track of what Bob8 is arguing? Is it that Luka should be leading, or just that he's the best player...?

[Exp0sed]

Jamal Murray got injured. I see the Nuggets struggling to stay afloat. Their roster is already pretty sub-par without Murray its flat out garbage.

I think SGA's odds of winning MVP went up a lot.

This Murray injury isn’t some career threatening injury. Jamal will likely miss this game tonight. Let’s not act like he going to miss the rest of season. Denver has the easiest schedule going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver takes over the lead in the west by the end February.

22nd easiest. In the same cluster as 2 of the teams they're competing against - OKC, Minny: https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

this

Denver might be have a decent schedule left but the teams they are chasing are really good and aren't gonna drop many games
I think 3rd is more likely, depening how how the Clippers do and still a chance one (or more) of the Kings, Pels, Mavs, Suns get really hot. big game tonight, losing to Sac would be painful, Nuggets are at home but no KCP, no Murray etc.. Jokic needs to take this one himsef, not count on Justin holiday and Reggie Jackson bricking open shots

[AleksandarN]

This Murray injury isn’t some career threatening injury. Jamal will likely miss this game tonight. Let’s not act like he going to miss the rest of season. Denver has the easiest schedule going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver takes over the lead in the west by the end February.

22nd easiest. In the same cluster as 2 of the teams they're competing against - OKC, Minny: https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

this

Denver might be have a decent schedule left but the teams they are chasing are really good and aren't gonna drop many games
I think 3rd is more likely, depening how how the Clippers do and still a chance one (or more) of the Kings, Pels, Mavs, Suns get really hot. big game tonight, losing to Sac would be painful, Nuggets are at home but no KCP, no Murray etc.. Jokic needs to take this one himsef, not count on Justin holiday and Reggie Jackson bricking open shots

Clippers have like 5 or 6 back to back games I can see the Clippers dropping some games

[Exp0sed]

22nd easiest. In the same cluster as 2 of the teams they're competing against - OKC, Minny: https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

this

Denver might be have a decent schedule left but the teams they are chasing are really good and aren't gonna drop many games
I think 3rd is more likely, depening how how the Clippers do and still a chance one (or more) of the Kings, Pels, Mavs, Suns get really hot. big game tonight, losing to Sac would be painful, Nuggets are at home but no KCP, no Murray etc.. Jokic needs to take this one himsef, not count on Justin holiday and Reggie Jackson bricking open shots

Clippers have like 5 or 6 back to back games I can see the Clippers dropping some games

sure, they'll drop some..but unless their stars miss some games I doubt they'll drop too many and the Nuggets have trouble beating even mediocre teams on the road at times.

KL is missing the Warriors games tonight, if he start missing some games that's a diff story

[AleksandarN]

this

Denver might be have a decent schedule left but the teams they are chasing are really good and aren't gonna drop many games
I think 3rd is more likely, depening how how the Clippers do and still a chance one (or more) of the Kings, Pels, Mavs, Suns get really hot. big game tonight, losing to Sac would be painful, Nuggets are at home but no KCP, no Murray etc.. Jokic needs to take this one himsef, not count on Justin holiday and Reggie Jackson bricking open shots

Clippers have like 5 or 6 back to back games I can see the Clippers dropping some games

sure, they'll drop some..but unless their stars miss some games I doubt they'll drop too many and the Nuggets have trouble beating even mediocre teams on the road at times.

KL is missing the Warriors games tonight, if he start missing some games that's a diff story

Also keep in mind that Denver only have like 11 away games left. And 16 home games

[Jaqua92]

Denver may not get the 1 seed because they take their foot off the gas all season.

But they could, because OKC and Timberwolves are 08 Hawks level frauds. So it won't matter.

[LeBronSpaghetti]

SGA deserves it right now

[HotRocks34]

Denver limps into the ASG break on a 3 game losing streak.

Jokic maintains the edge but the Nuggets need to figure it out.

[MavsDirk41]

Joker right now but SGA and Luka are within reach with Giannis a distant 4th

[dygaction]

Joker right now but SGA and Luka are within reach with Giannis a distant 4th

New Mavs look promising. I was told that PJ is strong O so so D, but he has been simply amazing defending 1-5 and banging down low.

[MavsDirk41]

Joker right now but SGA and Luka are within reach with Giannis a distant 4th

New Mavs look promising. I was told that PJ is strong O so so D, but he has been simply amazing defending 1-5 and banging down low.

Yea he has struggled with his shot but his defense has been solid and he is a pretty good passer too. I like his versatility i just hope he can find his stroke again.