How about Jett Howard over Lively...?
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You understand, I assume, that it's the same thing every year. & I do mean every single draft. Pick a year at random & confirm it for yourself.
Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart
payitforward wrote:Right now, Lively looks to have been a better pick than Bilal Coulibaly.
How about Jett Howard over Lively...?
You understand, I assume, that it's the same thing every year. & I do mean every single draft. Pick a year at random & confirm it for yourself.
AFM wrote:Just curious PIF. Why do you think NBA execs don’t operate this way? You almost never see trade downs for more picks.
pcbothwel wrote:payitforward wrote:Right now, Lively looks to have been a better pick than Bilal Coulibaly.
How about Jett Howard over Lively...?
You understand, I assume, that it's the same thing every year. & I do mean every single draft. Pick a year at random & confirm it for yourself.
Lively does not project to be better than Bilal. You keep falling into the same trap with low usage guys.
Was Obi Toppin and Okongwu a better pick than Anthony Edward’s after their rookie year?
What about Jaxson Hayes over Garland & Coby White?
Yes, Lively looks like a really good player. But you don’t take Jarrett Allen over Paul George. And rim running bigs always have the advantage of blocking a few shots and catching a few lobs to make their efficiency look great. But how does that project to create wins.
It’s like picking a guard or running back in the top 10 of the NFL draft, and acting like it’s great value because they performed better than the rookie QB.
Positional value matters.
pcbothwel wrote:PIF ...you use isolated stats for players in limited roles and extrapolate them.
You did this with... Jarrett Allen, etc. Lively is another example....
...You did your elongated rundown of a per possession analysis of what Allen provides and determined he was a great player. My rebuttal then, and now, is the same. If you have 5 Rim Running Centers on the floor at the same time (Allen, Gafford, Lively, etc.), their advanced stats will PLUMMET.
pcbothwel wrote:...When a big scores off lobs and putbacks, his efficiency will be in the 60-70 TS range. When he plays next to the rim on both ends of the court, he will gather rebounds. When he doesnt dribble, create, or pass... he wont turn the ball over....
pcbothwel wrote:There is a reason the Gobert trade was viewed laughably and gets ran off the court in the playoffs. There is a reason that Valanciunas does NOTHING in terms of adding wins despite his amazing efficiency and rebounding.
payitforward wrote:This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!
As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.
Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?
Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.
payitforward wrote:This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!
As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.
Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?
Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.
long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:payitforward wrote:This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!
As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.
Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?
Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.
The TJ-D for GS’s trash trade is enough for me to wonder about our Dawkins Winger dream team
Jay81 wrote:payitforward wrote:This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!
As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.
Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?
Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.
Let me guess. Bilal has been amongst the worst
payitforward wrote:Jay81 wrote:payitforward wrote:This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!
As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.
Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?
Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.
Let me guess. Bilal has been amongst the worst
Bilal started off strong, but he's fallen way off. I wouldn't call him one of the worst, but he hasn't been very good overall.
OTOH, come on... he just turned 19, he's just learning the NBA game, & he's 4th in minutes among all '23 draft picks!
I'm just now reading this pcb.pcbothwel wrote:PIF... I am NOT talking about draft position. I am talking about the fact that you use isolated stats for players in limited roles and extrapolate them.
You did this with Otto Porter, Jarrett Allen, etc. Lively is another example.
You did your elongated rundown of a per possession analysis of what Allen provides and determined he was a great player. My rebuttal then, and now, is the same. If you have 5 Rim Running Centers on the floor at the same time (Allen, Gafford, Lively, etc.), their advanced stats will PLUMMET. Because these guys dont dribble a ball more than 4 times a game or take a shot that outside 5 ft.
When a big scores off lobs and putbacks, his efficiency will be in the 60-70 TS range. When he plays next to the rim on both ends of the court, he will gather rebounds. When he doesnt dribble, create, or pass... he wont turn the ball over.
There is a reason the Gobert trade was viewed laughably and gets ran off the court in the playoffs. There is a reason that Valanciunas does NOTHING in terms of adding wins despite his amazing efficiency and rebounding.
pcbothwel wrote:PIF... I am NOT talking about draft position. I am talking about the fact that you use isolated stats for players in limited roles and extrapolate them....
You did your elongated rundown of a per possession analysis of what Allen provides and determined he was a great player. ...
If by "great" you mean "terrific," you bet -- he is a terrific Center -- one of the dozen best.
If by "great" you mean something more literal -- in the sense that we would both say that Kawhi or Jimmy Butler are "great" -- then, no, he's not one of the "greats." But of course I never said he was!pcbothwel wrote:My rebuttal then, and now, is the same. If you have 5 Rim Running Centers on the floor at the same time (Allen, Gafford, Lively, etc.), their advanced stats will PLUMMET....
Of course they will!
& if you have 5 great PGs on the floor at the same time, their stats will plummet too!pcbothwel wrote:When a big scores off lobs and putbacks, his efficiency will be in the 60-70 TS range....(etc.)
Correct.
& that's why, when we say a Center is "good" we compare his numbers with those of other Centers. We look at his scoring efficiency etc. as it stacks up against other Centers. Or against the average TS% of an NBA Center.pcbothwel wrote:There is a reason the Gobert trade was viewed laughably and gets ran off the court in the playoffs..