2024 Draft Lottery Odds - Tracking

[Statistician MK]

This tabular view shows the most updated situation of the Lottery Odds, from the perspective of the Raptors...

Firstly... All the teams on the League Standings that are currently better than the Brooklyn Nets, I don't think there is a chance of finishing worse than the Raptors, and all the teams that are currently worse than the Portland Trail Blazers, I don't believe that at the end of the season they can be better than the Raptors...
So, it seems to me that it all comes down to the ranking of Brooklyn, Memphis, Toronto and Portland...



From this small group of teams, maybe I should have removed the Brooklyn Nets too, because they don't have their pick anyway... It goes to the Houston Rockets, as an unprotected draft pick...
Most likely, they will also finish better than the Raptors...

By the way, the next few games from the Memphis Grizzlies will be interesting... They had an eight game losing streak and now won the last two games... And in the next 6 games, they will play Brooklyn twice and Portland twice... To all those matches someone will have to win, and every win is in favor of the Raptors.

We also have an interesting situation for the pick we will get from Indiana... I don't think they are capable of catching teams that are currently better than them on the Standings, and several good teams are "breathing down their necks"... And it could easily happen the pick from Indiana ends up as a Lottery pick, and the Raptors to end up having two Lottery picks.

[Purple+Black]

Good place to be heading into the break but only time will tell where we end up on draft day

[SpezNc]

It’s obviously a long shot and arguably too soon to talk about them but I am wondering about Charlotte. When is Lamelo Ball coming back ? What if they can build on their current winning streak. ?

[Indeed]

I would have Portland the tier below.

Meanwhile, being #6 is 30% chance being #7, and the highest chance, so regardless, I am not looking forward to keep our pick.
Therefore, I would expect us to win as much as we can, and maybe ended up in the #8.

[Pointgod]

3 games back of Portland. We can do this! Let’s secure the top 6 pick

[WuTang_CMB]

Most I can see Raps getting is 30-32 wins , that should keep them 6 or 7 last

with these odds, it's very easy to lose our pick or get some luck and get into top 4

whatever happens, happens at this point

[pbernardi]

So, around a 47% chance of losing one of 2026/2027/2028 picks at this point?

[JShuttlesworth]

I appreciate all this work but there is literally a website dedicated to this stuff that automatically updates daily

[Andrew_M08]

Still baffled that we at least didn't make the pick top 10 protected. Shows how delusional Masai was with how good he thought the team was

[Jadoogar]

Portland and Memphis are going to start the hard tank post allstar
Idk how much more Memphis can tank, they shouldn't be better than us (which is pretty embarrassing) but Portland will definitely give Brogdon, Grant and Ayton some extended vacations.

[mdenny]

So, around a 47% chance of losing one of 2026/2027/2028 picks at his point?

The chance of losing the pick over the next 3 years are MUCH higher than that. Probably no less than 98%.


Bro...if we don't convey the pick to the Spurs over the next 3 years....we will have MUCH bigger problems than losing a pick. It would mean Barnes ended up being a total bust. IQ and Barrett and Dick too. Plus the 6 FRPs we select over the next 3 years would all have to be underwhelming too.

Cheering for that scenario is like hoping that we have 10 FRP busts so we can keep one FRP lol.

It is NOT the outcome to cheer for lol.

[douggood]

Portland and Memphis are going to start the hard tank post allstar
Idk how much more Memphis can tank, they shouldn't be better than us (which is pretty embarrassing) but Portland will definitely give Brogdon, Grant and Ayton some extended vacations.

memphis is going to get bane and smart back. they have genuinely been injured and both are probably coming back soonish. plus the team plays hard, even if they dont come back the rag tag group of players wont make it easy to tank.

portland has been master tankers last few years, but with the weak draft this year + having gsw warriors pick i dont them see them doing it hardcore again.

[pbernardi]

So, around a 47% chance of losing one of 2026/2027/2028 picks at his point?

The chance of losing the pick over the next 3 years are MUCH higher than that. Probably no less than 98%.


Bro...if we don't convey the pick to the Spurs over the next 3 years....we will have MUCH bigger problems than losing a pick. It would mean Barnes ended up being a total bust. IQ and Barrett and Dick too. Plus the 6 FRPs we select over the next 3 years would all have to be underwhelming too.

Cheering for that scenario is like hoping that we have 10 FRP busts so we can keep one FRP lol.

It is NOT the outcome to cheer for lol.

Yes, completely agree with you.

That´s why I think we should try to give the pick to Spurs this year, and not keep it. We can give the Spurs a top 7-10 pick this year, or if we keep this pick, it probably means we will give the Spurs a top 7-12 pick in 2026, 2027 or 2028.

Or even worse, as you put it, if we don´t convey any of these picks, means we suck forever.

[Jadoogar]

Portland and Memphis are going to start the hard tank post allstar
Idk how much more Memphis can tank, they shouldn't be better than us (which is pretty embarrassing) but Portland will definitely give Brogdon, Grant and Ayton some extended vacations.

memphis is going to get bane and smart back. they have genuinely been injured and both are probably coming back soonish. plus the team plays hard, even if they dont come back the rag tag group of players wont make it easy to tank.

portland has been master tankers last few years, but with the weak draft this year + having gsw warriors pick i dont them see them doing it hardcore again.

memphis has no reason to bring Bane or Smart back. I highly doubt they bring those guys back for a meaningful period

On paper, Raptors are more talented than both of these teams. Eventually the talent should rise to the top (in theory)

[DutchCanuck]

Weak Draft or not it's crazy that OKC could have 2 picks in the 11-15 range, fantastic management job by them.

[Dennis 37]

I would have Portland the tier below.

Meanwhile, being #6 is 30% chance being #7, and the highest chance, so regardless, I am not looking forward to keep our pick.
Therefore, I would expect us to win as much as we can, and maybe ended up in the #8.

If you look at it in isolation, yeas it is about 30% we drop to 7. But when you look at the whole picture, we have a 45.8% chance of being one of 6th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd or 1st and 54.2 % chance our pick gets worse.

[Indeed]

So, around a 47% chance of losing one of 2026/2027/2028 picks at this point?

I think it is 50% chance that we are losing the pick this year if the ranking stayed.
At bottom 6, 29.5% being #7 pick and 20.5% being #8 pick.

[Indeed]

I would have Portland the tier below.

Meanwhile, being #6 is 30% chance being #7, and the highest chance, so regardless, I am not looking forward to keep our pick.
Therefore, I would expect us to win as much as we can, and maybe ended up in the #8.

If you look at it in isolation, yeas it is about 30% we drop to 7. But when you look at the whole picture, we have a 45.8% chance of being one of 6th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd or 1st and 54.2 % chance our pick gets worse.

Sorry, not sure what is wrong with my comment, the full picture is over 50% chance being 7 or 8, so am I wrong of thinking we are losing the pick on this year?

[Badonkadonk]

I would have Portland the tier below.

Meanwhile, being #6 is 30% chance being #7, and the highest chance, so regardless, I am not looking forward to keep our pick.
Therefore, I would expect us to win as much as we can, and maybe ended up in the #8.

If you look at it in isolation, yeas it is about 30% we drop to 7. But when you look at the whole picture, we have a 45.8% chance of being one of 6th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd or 1st and 54.2 % chance our pick gets worse.

Sorry, not sure what is wrong with my comment, the full picture is over 50% chance being 7 or 8, so am I wrong of thinking we are losing the pick on this year?

You're right. It's slightly more likely Raps slide down if they finish 6th last.

[Statistician MK]

I appreciate all this work but there is literally a website dedicated to this stuff that automatically updates daily

I appreciate your appreciation...
And feel free to go on that dedicated website to comment about the Raptors, about the chances, to tell them about your hopes and expectations, to present your opinion, to express your feelings etc.