2024 Draft Lottery Odds - Tracking

[mdenny]

So, around a 47% chance of losing one of 2026/2027/2028 picks at his point?

The chance of losing the pick over the next 3 years are MUCH higher than that. Probably no less than 98%.


Bro...if we don't convey the pick to the Spurs over the next 3 years....we will have MUCH bigger problems than losing a pick. It would mean Barnes ended up being a total bust. IQ and Barrett and Dick too. Plus the 6 FRPs we select over the next 3 years would all have to be underwhelming too.

Cheering for that scenario is like hoping that we have 10 FRP busts so we can keep one FRP lol.

It is NOT the outcome to cheer for lol.

Yes, completely agree with you.

That´s why I think we should try to give the pick to Spurs this year, and not keep it. We can give the Spurs a top 7-10 pick this year, or if we keep this pick, it probably means we will give the Spurs a top 7-12 pick in 2026, 2027 or 2028.

Or even worse, as you put it, if we don´t convey any of these picks, means we suck forever.

Yah I kinda hope we convey this year but I don't think it's a huge difference either way. If we move up in the lottery and get the 3 or 4 selection that might be for the best. Our pick next season could be 12th or 13th if our young players develop quickly.

On the other hand...if we convey the 8th or 9th pick this year...that might end up better. Our pick next season might also be 8th or 9th. It's a better draft and it's better to spread out our picks (2 this summer, 1 next summer) than bunched up (3 this summer, 0 next summer).

There's too many possible variables for me to be highly invested in which year it's conveyed.

[Statistician MK]

Meanwhile, being #6 is 30% chance being #7, and the highest chance, so regardless, I am not looking forward to keep our pick.
Therefore, I would expect us to win as much as we can, and maybe ended up in the #8.

Finishing #5 on the end means around 64% chances keeping the pick, finishing #6 means 46% chances, finishing #7 means 32% chances, and finishing #8 means 26% chances to not giving this year our pick to San Antonio!

[Indeed]

Meanwhile, being #6 is 30% chance being #7, and the highest chance, so regardless, I am not looking forward to keep our pick.
Therefore, I would expect us to win as much as we can, and maybe ended up in the #8.

Finishing #5 on the end means around 64% chances keeping the pick, finishing #6 means 46% chances, finishing #7 means 32% chances, and finishing #8 means 26% chances to not giving this year our pick to San Antonio!

Sure, but we are not #5, and we are closer to #7 than #6 (meaning #7 may drop down easier than we drop a spot).
Therefore, I would rather convert this pick on a week draft, rather than next year which seems to be an above average draft.

[Indeed]

The chance of losing the pick over the next 3 years are MUCH higher than that. Probably no less than 98%.


Bro...if we don't convey the pick to the Spurs over the next 3 years....we will have MUCH bigger problems than losing a pick. It would mean Barnes ended up being a total bust. IQ and Barrett and Dick too. Plus the 6 FRPs we select over the next 3 years would all have to be underwhelming too.

Cheering for that scenario is like hoping that we have 10 FRP busts so we can keep one FRP lol.

It is NOT the outcome to cheer for lol.

Yes, completely agree with you.

That´s why I think we should try to give the pick to Spurs this year, and not keep it. We can give the Spurs a top 7-10 pick this year, or if we keep this pick, it probably means we will give the Spurs a top 7-12 pick in 2026, 2027 or 2028.

Or even worse, as you put it, if we don´t convey any of these picks, means we suck forever.

Yah I kinda hope we convey this year but I don't think it's a huge difference either way. If we move up in the lottery and get the 3 or 4 selection that might be for the best. Our pick next season could be 12th or 13th if our young players develop quickly.

On the other hand...if we convey the 8th or 9th pick this year...that might end up better. Our pick next season might also be 8th or 9th. It's a better draft and it's better to spread out our picks (2 this summer, 1 next summer) than bunched up (3 this summer, 0 next summer).

There's too many possible variables for me to be highly invested in which year it's conveyed.

Next year seem to be an above average draft to me, while we are hardly being a #12 / #13 play-in team, we are probably the #9 / #10 team, which is pretty much the #5 / #6 on this year's draft. I see no difference, plus we can trade our pick next year for moving up or down as well if we lose our pick this year.

[Tacoma]

...
We also have an interesting situation for the pick we will get from Indiana... I don't think they are capable of catching teams that are currently better than them on the Standings, and several good teams are "breathing down their necks"... And it could easily happen the pick from Indiana ends up as a Lottery pick, and the Raptors to end up having two Lottery picks.

How do you define "easily happen"?

According to your stats, we're at 54% of losing our pick. We are presently closer to BKN and MEM above us in the standings than we are to POR below us. Even if you assume neither BKN & MEM catches us, we'd have to make up 3.5 games to "catch" POR. But as bad as our 3 wins over the last 10 says, POR has been worse at 2-8. MEM has also been 2-8. It's not going to be easy.

On IND's pick, their recent losses reflect Haliburton being injured / on minutes restriction since. He's back to playing full time now, so them winning more games going forward, not less. Using your chart, they are battling 4 or 5 teams for the last lottery spot. That's a lot of hill to climb and I don't see how your charts say 2 lotto picks are easily happening as you claim.

[douggood]

...
We also have an interesting situation for the pick we will get from Indiana... I don't think they are capable of catching teams that are currently better than them on the Standings, and several good teams are "breathing down their necks"... And it could easily happen the pick from Indiana ends up as a Lottery pick, and the Raptors to end up having two Lottery picks.

How do you define "easily happen"?

According to your stats, we're at 54% of losing our pick. We are presently closer to BKN and MEM above us in the standings than we are to POR below us. Even if you assume neither BKN & MEM catches us, we'd have to make up 3.5 games to "catch" POR. But as bad as our 3 wins over the last 10 says, POR has been worse at 2-8. MEM has also been 2-8. It's not going to be easy.

On IND's pick, their recent losses reflect Haliburton being injured / on minutes restriction since. He's back to playing full time now, so them winning more games going forward, not less. Using your chart, they are battling 4 or 5 teams for the last lottery spot. That's a lot of hill to climb and I don't see how your charts say 2 lotto picks are easily happening as you claim.

that plus indiana pick is top 2 protected.

[Yallbecrazy]

Comparing drafts in terms of weak to strong outside the top 1-3 guys is a fool's errand.
There are two guys projected to be very strong #1 overall players next year and 2 guys the year after that too.

There's no guarantee those players continue to progress and stay worthy of being a high end #1 overall type of player.

For everyone else there will be a bunch of unheralded guys that emerge as top 10 picks and a bunch of guys currently in the top 10 that end up not being worthy of a frp.

Same thing happened this year, there weren't any original high end guys, but every year guys emerge from the shadows and end up being worthy of a high end lotto pick. Just cause there isn’t very top end talent doesn't mean the draft will be weak. It's probably close to 50/50 that outside the top 2 picks in 2025 nba draft that the entire draft class will be stronger or weaker than the 2024 class.

[Statistician MK]

How do you define "easily happen"?

According to your stats, we're at 54% of losing our pick. We are presently closer to BKN and MEM above us in the standings than we are to POR below us. Even if you assume neither BKN & MEM catches us, we'd have to make up 3.5 games to "catch" POR. But as bad as our 3 wins over the last 10 says, POR has been worse at 2-8. MEM has also been 2-8. It's not going to be easy.

On IND's pick, their recent losses reflect Haliburton being injured / on minutes restriction since. He's back to playing full time now, so them winning more games going forward, not less. Using your chart, they are battling 4 or 5 teams for the last lottery spot. That's a lot of hill to climb and I don't see how your charts say 2 lotto picks are easily happening as you claim.

Read again...
I said "a Lottery pick"...
For a Lottery pick we don't have to "catch" POR... Even a 14th worst spot means "a lottery pick"...

And I was talking about the Indiana pick, not our pick!

[Tacoma]

Yes, completely agree with you.

That´s why I think we should try to give the pick to Spurs this year, and not keep it. We can give the Spurs a top 7-10 pick this year, or if we keep this pick, it probably means we will give the Spurs a top 7-12 pick in 2026, 2027 or 2028.

Or even worse, as you put it, if we don´t convey any of these picks, means we suck forever.

Yah I kinda hope we convey this year but I don't think it's a huge difference either way. If we move up in the lottery and get the 3 or 4 selection that might be for the best. Our pick next season could be 12th or 13th if our young players develop quickly.

On the other hand...if we convey the 8th or 9th pick this year...that might end up better. Our pick next season might also be 8th or 9th. It's a better draft and it's better to spread out our picks (2 this summer, 1 next summer) than bunched up (3 this summer, 0 next summer).

There's too many possible variables for me to be highly invested in which year it's conveyed.

Next year seem to be an above average draft to me, while we are hardly being a #12 / #13 play-in team, we are probably the #9 / #10 team, which is pretty much the #5 / #6 on this year's draft. I see no difference, plus we can trade our pick next year for moving up or down as well if we lose our pick this year.

Agree. My position since the trades happened is we go full throttle to try to make the play-in and possibly the playoffs this year. We convey the pick. Fine. 2024 is a poor draft because it's poor at the top, so making top 6 isn't all that anyway.

If we manage to make the playoffs, that's a huge boost to BBQ going into next year. Even if we fall short, trying to win will allow BBQ to better gel and build team chemistry, than trying to lose.

[carlosey]

Its such a crapshoot. We can get #1 or we can have no pick in the end ha.

[Tacoma]

How do you define "easily happen"?

According to your stats, we're at 54% of losing our pick. We are presently closer to BKN and MEM above us in the standings than we are to POR below us. Even if you assume neither BKN & MEM catches us, we'd have to make up 3.5 games to "catch" POR. But as bad as our 3 wins over the last 10 says, POR has been worse at 2-8. MEM has also been 2-8. It's not going to be easy.

On IND's pick, their recent losses reflect Haliburton being injured / on minutes restriction since. He's back to playing full time now, so them winning more games going forward, not less. Using your chart, they are battling 4 or 5 teams for the last lottery spot. That's a lot of hill to climb and I don't see how your charts say 2 lotto picks are easily happening as you claim.

Read again...
I said "a Lottery pick"...
For a Lottery pick we don't have to "catch" POR... Even a 14th worst spot means "a lottery pick"...

And I was talking about the Indiana pick, not our pick!

I think you should read again. If we finish 7-14 we lose the lotto pick to SA. According to your chart, there's 54% chance we finish #7 or worse. A lotto pick is not easily happening. On Indy's pick, as I said, there are 5 teams battling for that last #14 lottery pick. How is that easily happening? On the contrary, it's more easily happening that we end up with ZERO lotto picks than two.

[Dennis 37]

I would have Portland the tier below.

Meanwhile, being #6 is 30% chance being #7, and the highest chance, so regardless, I am not looking forward to keep our pick.
Therefore, I would expect us to win as much as we can, and maybe ended up in the #8.

If you look at it in isolation, yeas it is about 30% we drop to 7. But when you look at the whole picture, we have a 45.8% chance of being one of 6th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd or 1st and 54.2 % chance our pick gets worse.

Sorry, not sure what is wrong with my comment, the full picture is over 50% chance being 7 or 8, so am I wrong of thinking we are losing the pick on this year?

Yes, it is clearer when you say over 50% chance of losing the pick. If one simply looks at the 8 or 9% to stay at 6 or 30% to end up 7th, one might think we don't have a chance.

45.8% is a decent chance to keep our pick.

[Statistician MK]

If we finish 7-14 we lose the lotto pick to SA. According to your chart, there's 54% chance we finish #7 or worse. A lotto pick is not easily happening. On Indy's pick, as I said, there are 5 teams battling for that last #14 lottery pick. How is that easily happening? On the contrary, it's more easily happening that we end up with ZERO lotto picks than two.

OK, lets clarify this...
I think we are talking about different things... Having a Lottery pick doesn't mean winning the lottery, but only participating in the lottery...

e.g. Finishing 6th worst means a 100% chance of having a Lottery pick, a 45.8 chance of keeping our pick this year, and a 37.2% chance of winning the lottery (one of the top 4 draft picks)!

Q: What is considered a NBA lottery pick?
A: The 14 teams that miss out on the NBA Playoffs.

[Indeed]

If we finish 7-14 we lose the lotto pick to SA. According to your chart, there's 54% chance we finish #7 or worse. A lotto pick is not easily happening. On Indy's pick, as I said, there are 5 teams battling for that last #14 lottery pick. How is that easily happening? On the contrary, it's more easily happening that we end up with ZERO lotto picks than two.

OK, lets clarify this...
I think we are talking about different things... Having a Lottery pick doesn't mean winning the lottery, but only participating in the lottery...

e.g. Finishing 6th worst means a 100% chance of having a Lottery pick, a 45.8 chance of keeping our pick this year, and a 37.2% chance of winning the lottery (one of the top 4 draft picks)!

Q: What is considered a NBA lottery pick?
A: The 14 teams that miss out on the NBA Playoffs.

A weak draft like this, I don't know you would call this "winning the lottery". If we convey our pick this year, and get a top 7 pick next year, we are winning the lottery as well? Because the top 4 pick might as well be a top 7 pick on next year draft.

[Statistician MK]

A weak draft like this, I don't know you would call this "winning the lottery".

I agree... When I said "winning a lottery", I was just theoretically explaining what Draft lottery means!

[F22_Raptor]

I appreciate all this work but there is literally a website dedicated to this stuff that automatically updates daily

Is this the site?

https://www.tankathon.com/

[twiggy2]

I really hope we move up in the lottery. With that said I'd be perfectly fine giving the spurs the 7 or 8.