1985-’98 Bulls: Replace Pippen w/ Kevin Durant

[Matt15]

How many titles would the Bulls win with Durant replacing Pippen?

85 Bulls-08 Durant
86 Bulls-09 Durant
87 Bulls-10 Durant
88 Bulls-11 Durant
89 Bulls-12 Durant
90 Bulls-13 Durant
91 Bulls-14 Durant
92 Bulls-15 Durant
93 Bulls-16 Durant
94 Bulls-17 Durant
95 Bulls-18 Durant
96 Bulls-19 Durant
97 Bulls-20 Durant
98 Bulls-21 Durant

[TheGOATRises007]

They win in 89, 90, 91, 93, 95, 96, 97 and 98 IMO. If KD goes down in 92, I think that's too much of a loss to compensate.

Still unsure about 94. 88 is debatable. That roster was pretty bad that year.

[lessthanjake]

Durant isn’t really all that much better of a player than Pippen (though I do think he’s a bit better). And I’m inclined to think his skill set would match up a bit less well with Jordan’s—due to Durant being primarily a volume scorer and not really hugely excelling at anything else. So I’m not sure healthy prime Durant is much better with Jordan than healthy prime Pippen.

I think the big advantage with Durant is just that he developed into a major superstar a lot younger than Pippen. If you’ve slotted Durant in there, you have the four-season span of 1987-1990 being peak Jordan alongside 2010-2013 Durant. That’s really good! Granted, the rest of the supporting cast wasn’t as good as it later became, so maybe they don’t win all of those years (for instance, maybe the 1987 Lakers are too much), but I think you do get 2-4 titles in those years. And I think the chances of winning in 1995 go up a bit with Durant (though they were pretty far off that year, with Jordan being far from his best, so my guess is they still wouldn’t have won). I don’t think the Bulls win in 1994 with Durant instead of Pippen. In theory, Durant as a volume scorer is a better fit for that team than Pippen was, so it’s definitely possible, but I just don’t really trust Durant to win a title as the lone superstar.

Meanwhile, though, if we assume that Durant still gets injured in the years corresponding with his 2015 and 2020 seasons (i.e. 1992 and 1997), then we can probably erase the titles from those years. And maybe even the 2019/1996 year, if we assume the playoff injury too. I guess perhaps Jordan and the rest of the supporting cast might’ve been good enough in those years to still nab one (particularly in light of them managing to win in 1998 with Pippen pretty hobbled). Possibly two if they were lucky.

So, overall, I’m inclined to think that replacing Pippen with Durant would’ve resulted in the Bulls winning titles earlier but also having Durant’s injuries make the Bulls not able to pull off all the wins they got in reality with Pippen. He also probably marginally increases the chances in 1994 and 1995, though I don’t think they win either of those years anyways. The net result would probably have been a similar number of overall titles. I guess my median guess would be +1 titles, but I think there’s a plausible range that goes from like -1 to +3.

[Owly]

How many titles would the Bulls win with Durant replacing Pippen?

85 Bulls-08 Durant
86 Bulls-09 Durant
87 Bulls-10 Durant
88 Bulls-11 Durant
89 Bulls-12 Durant
90 Bulls-13 Durant
91 Bulls-14 Durant
92 Bulls-15 Durant
93 Bulls-16 Durant
94 Bulls-17 Durant
95 Bulls-18 Durant
96 Bulls-19 Durant
97 Bulls-20 Durant
98 Bulls-21 Durant

I don't tend to like to throw this at guys because there are guys that want to move but don't happen to but ... I don't think we can assume Durant stays in one place. Especially if he's not the clear alpha.

[OhayoKD]

How many titles would the Bulls win with Durant replacing Pippen?

85 Bulls-08 Durant
86 Bulls-09 Durant
87 Bulls-10 Durant
88 Bulls-11 Durant
89 Bulls-12 Durant
90 Bulls-13 Durant
91 Bulls-14 Durant
92 Bulls-15 Durant
93 Bulls-16 Durant
94 Bulls-17 Durant
95 Bulls-18 Durant
96 Bulls-19 Durant
97 Bulls-20 Durant
98 Bulls-21 Durant

Taking a purely era-relative apporach, Durant isn't too much better than Pippen and the fit is obviously worse. Moreover, If you take Jordan at his word(which he acted on in Washington later on), there's going to be a big ruckus with him having to sacrifice his pursuit of scoring titles. So i'd put money on the bulls performing consistently worse from 90 onward. If we assume the same health and bounces, this likely takes out their 98, 97, 93, and 92 championships with the Sonics series in 96 maaaybe getting dicey. Should win in 1991 regardless.

However, assuming direct translation, I think Durant in the 90's becomes a much bigger standout as a ball-handler and passer and gets a big spike in terms of general impact. In a league where Bird was a top-player, it's not hard to imagine Durant going saiyan in which case the Bulls could start winning as early as 88.

[Ol Roy]

He fits better in the later years...you have Harper and Rodman to pick up the slack on perimeter defense, and Kukoc can make up for some of Pippen's passing.

Either way, if Jordan and Durant developed good chemistry, having the two best midrange shooters ever would be devastating to other teams.

This was brought up in another recent thread, but I think Jordan/Bird would be even scarier. Keep most of Durant's shooting and add savant passing.

[CodeBreaker]

Jordan's scoring titles would decrease by 5

[rand]

1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1995
1998

[DirtyDez]

KD finished 2nd in mvp voting by year 3 whereas it took Pippen about 5 years to make an all nba team. If KD is your #2 and the #1 is an apex alpha with high bb iq it’s a match made in Heaven. To answer the question they win every year he’s healthy starting in 1988.

[pipfan]

Pippen is my all time favorite player, but KD is clearly better
MJ moves to PG and averages a triple double at some point
7 title total

[Silvie Lysandra]

How many titles would the Bulls win with Durant replacing Pippen?

87 Bulls-08 Durant
88 Bulls-09 Durant
89 Bulls-10 Durant
90 Bulls-11 Durant
91 Bulls-12 Durant
92 Bulls-13 Durant
93 Bulls-14 Durant
94 Bulls-15 Durant
95 Bulls-16 Durant
96 Bulls-17 Durant
97 Bulls-18 Durant
98 Bulls-19 Durant

So the main problem with this is Pippen was drafted in 1987. So the clock should start with 08 Durant.

87 Bulls: Durant is a bit better than Pippen, but not much. Doesn't move the needle.
88 Bulls: 09 Durant is noticeably better than 88 Pippen, and his offensive game is actually perfect for Michael, and he's def not Pippen on defense but the gap wasn't as massive as it would become later. I think the gap in offense is enough to get Mike MJ past the Pistons. 60-70% chance.
89: Durant is playing at an MVP level this year, Pippen is a fringe all-star. Again, the defensive gap is really starting to open up, but it's still not enough to compensate for MVP level offense versus replacement level offense. Imo a lock.
90: 11 Durant actually takes a notable step back, while Pippen has matured into the Pippen we know. However, this is close to peak Jordan, the rest of the supporting cast is better, and this version of the Bulls swept the Pistons and nearly swept the Showtime Lakers. I say this is close to a lock here too.
91: This feels the most dicey actually. The Knicks got *real* close, and while Durant's spacing would help a lot in this era, this is one of Pippen's best years on both ends, and the defensive impact would definitely be noticeable. I'll say 50:50, despite this being one of the strongest three-peat teams.
92: Durant really explodes this year offensively, and this is possibly the best version of MJ. And Pippen took a bit of a step back as well. This is comfortable win imo.
93: First MJ retirement year. So the thing about this team is that despite winning only a few fewer games, they WERE a dramatically worse team without MJ. Actually one of the worst offenses in the NBA. And this is PEAK Durant here. But...Durant has never been the sole driver of an offensive attack. To put in perspective, MJ himself couldn't produce a top 10 offense under these conditions. Neither could LeBron James. And we've never seen Durant's *efficiency* under these conditions. Pippen actually increased both his efficiency and volume in contrast.

Durant is the better player on paper, but can he sustain that with Horace Grant as his #2? I'll say no. If nothing else, they lose in the finals - It wouldn't be a lock even WITH Jordan here.
94: Maybe if Durant had played this season, they end up with a higher seed and better hold down the fort until MJ comes back, but these are also the years that Pippen is the least replaceable.
95: Easy win. This is the best version of the Bulls, and unlike before, Rodman can replace a lot of what you'd lose with Pippen while making up the difference with Durant.
96: Easy lock again, see above.
97: Pippen struggled with injury this year and had a pretty bad playoffs, Durant still opens up a lot for MJ and crucially, allows him to rest more offensively.

Locks: 89, 90, 92 95-97
High confidence: 88
Toss-up: 91 (this is one of the weaker Durant years and I'm not sure his offense compensates for losing Pippens defense at this point)
No way: 87, 93, 94, 98 (I think the Bulls sweep the Jazz with Durant, so we'll pretend he blows his Achilles late 3rd Q in a blowout)

Jordan's scoring titles would decrease by 5

I doubt it - Durant is *excellent* playing off ball. He would absolutely eat in the triangle. He played with some of the biggest high usage ball hogs of all time, and then Steph, Klay and even Dray eating up touches, and still put up elite scoring numbers. Jordan probably just becomes *even more* efficient.

[OhayoKD]

88 Bulls: 09 Durant is noticeably better than 88 Pippen, and his offensive game is actually perfect for Michael, and he's def not Pippen on defense but the gap wasn't as massive as it would become later. I think the gap in offense is enough to get Mike MJ past ase by 5

Nope:

Looking back, Michael says that he liked this approach because it “allowed me to be the person I needed to be.” Sometimes I would tell him that he needed to be aggressive and set the tone for the team. Other times I’d say, “Why don’t you try to get Scottie going so that the defenders will go after him and then you can attack?”
In general, I tried to give Michael room to figure out how to integrate his personal ambitions with those of the team. “Phil knew that winning the scoring title was important to me,” Michael says now, “but I wanted to do it in a way that didn’t take away from what the team was doing.”

And that is disregarding the defensive side where Pippen was a co-primary paint-protector and telling teammates where to go, two things that had little overlap with Jordan's strengths. Pippen and KD are almost on the opposite side of the fit spectrum for MJ.

I doubt it - Durant is *excellent* playing off ball. He would absolutely eat in the triangle. He played with some of the biggest high usage ball hogs of all time, and then Steph, Klay and even Dray eating up touches, and still put up elite scoring numbers. Jordan probably just becomes *even more* efficient.

The triangle hinges on having a strong ball-handler and decision-make draw up defensive attention so the scorer can cut to avoid extra coverage on the weakside. If Durant is that in the 90's then whatever, if however, he is what he is now, then Jordan will be sacrificing his own numbers, efficiency, and impact to make it work(let's assume for the sake of convenience he doesn't pull a washington as would be in character for him to do).

Westbrook was an excellent fit for Durant because he's a great ball-handler, and all-time passer with strong inside gravity, not so dissimilar from Pippen in an offense-only consideration. He covered all of KD's weaknesses.

He put up elite numbers in Golden State with the best off-ball creator in history by a landslide and a treasure trove of playmaking and spacing protecting him from defensive attention. And the team's results with KD still underwhelmed outside of the 2017 playoffs.