RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Kyle Lowry) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:46 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
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Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
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Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
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Rishkar
rk2023
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ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
WintaSoldier1
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Adrian Dantley
Image

Rudy Gobert
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Cliff Hagan
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Kyle Lowry
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Dennis Rodman
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As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#2 » by eminence » Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:19 pm

Anybody planning on making any surprise nominations? At first glance that portion of the ballot looks like a pretty easy Cousy/Iverson for me.

Lowry vs guys already on the ballot, first instinct would slot him 3rd between Gobert/Dantley. Always easier to compare contemporaries, so will probably start there (Gobert v Lowry).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#3 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:20 pm

Alright, we're 3/4ths of the way there now! Looking forward to comparing our 75 to the NBA's list.

Wanted to share something else I just compiled because we were talking about Top X 5-year RAPM performances for players based on Cheema's numbers. So I made a spreadsheet binning those numbers by thresholds:

Cheema 5-year RAPM Bins

I did this for basically all the guys I could think of - if there's an all-star from the +/- era not listed, it's because they never made Top 30 on Cheema's metrics (unless I made a mistake).
Those already Inducted are in yellow.
Sorting order based on the most times making the cut in the most elite categories.

Just to post a little something more, here are highest sorted guys not already Inducted:

Kyle Lowry
Baron Davis
Amir Johnson
Kyle Korver
LaMarcus Aldridge

Lowry just got nominated so obviously we're taking him seriously.

Baron is, as always, someone who looks way more consistently elite in these numbers than you'd expect.

Amir is a pretty classic case of a pure role player who always scored high on these metrics, and I'm really not looking to advocate for him here, though we can discuss if that's informative.

Korver is someone who was once in the Amir category but did make all-star once. I frankly think he should get discussion in this project but there are obvious concerns.

Aldridge is someone I'm always low on but I can't deny that he comes off looking quite legit just looking at the numbers. For me, while I don't love it when players want out of a non-contending situation, it bothers me more when players become problematic when paired with other great players. Aldridge went from talking about being a Blazer for life to wanting out as Lillard improved, and he also struggled psychologically in San Antonio once he realized that it was pretty clearly Kawhi's team...which he somehow didn't understand when he signed there.

In real life preferring to be a big fish in a small pond isn't that damning, but in a place like the NBA where contending for titles is the point, I'm not keen on guys who are not capable of leading serious contenders resist playing a more appropriate role.

In fairness to Aldridge, he did find a way to get right with being a beta with the Spurs with Pop's handholding so it's not like there was absolutely no way to reach him no matter the situation, but in all honesty, Aldridge choosing to leave the Blazers kept the team from reaching their potential in the 2010s, and as far as I can tell that franchise did nothing wrong with Aldridge and the team that acquired him were able to do so in part because he had an unrealistic expectation for his primacy there too.

To mention some of the guys on the list whose careers were not captured in their full longevity:

Stockton looks amazing.
Jordan's peak leaves no doubt.
Shaq looks quite good.
Robinson looks great, though given how long he played, I kinda thought he'd show up here more times.
Vlade Divac looks like a consistent all-star level impactor despite us missing his first 7 years.
Reggie looks pretty solid.
And would you look at Old Man Sabas!
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#4 » by trex_8063 » Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:53 pm

Induction vote: Adrian Dantley
Monster scorer whose box-based metrics merit his inclusion a long time ago; the lag on his apparent impact and general lack of team success has held him back, but he nonetheless feels [easily, imo] like a top 80 inclusion at least. (additional discussion below with some of the other candidates)


There's no one else particularly close for me. If I had to pick an alternate, I guess I'd go with.....

Alternate vote: Kyle Lowry
I saw a whole lot of Kyle career, and it's been an admirable arc for a guy that was always a hard worker.
Came into the league a late 1st round pick, not necessarily a ton of expectation. Promising early showing right from the start, but then got injured and missed most of his rookie season. :(
Came back showing some of that same promise in his second year (and I recall he was a gem in fantasy basketball around '08 or '09, which I was doing at the time: the price-tag on him was super-cheap for such a productive player). Only 6'0", but built like a tank, tenacious defender, never been afraid of taking a charge, too.
Has been a plus defender the vast majority of his career (many times one of the very best defensive PG's in the league, imo), even from that sophomore season onward.

By somewhere around '11 or '12 [in Houston], he had developed into a competent scorer, too; by '16 or so he was a downright GOOD scorer. And he gradually improved as a playmaker over his career. By some of his late seasons in Toronto, I think he was one of the very best transition passers in the league.
Always a super-solid rebounder for his size and position, too.

His metrics and efficiency did often seem to dip in the playoffs, though curiously his on/off and other impact signals didn't (at least not as much).
imo, he was a solid All-Star level player [or at least very close] for probably 7-8 seasons, peaking at solid All-NBA 2nd Team level for a couple years in Toronto. Was at the helm of a number of teams that were close to being a contender, but couldn't get over the hump [the hump named LeBron], then was the 2nd-best player on a title team in '19 (which is past his peak).

Now has continued to stay relevant into his late 30s for a team that continuously over-achieves. Seems like he's always been a stand-up team glue guy, too. In writing about him, I feel more comfortable with him as my alternate.


As to the others....
Hagan's claim is as an efficient scorer. Yet he's less efficient (even relative to a less efficient league) than Dantley......and on smaller volume.......and in a weaker overall league.......and for a shorter period of time. And he has a coach who actively/publicly criticized his defense.
So why then should I favour him over Dantley? Oh right: ringz.
Basically, he's a short prime in a weak era, nice box-based metrics for a handful of years [with precisely two years where he looks like a playoff riser], though with impact signals that lag well-behind (and an account from a coach expounding on how he's a bad defender......which perhaps explains the phenomenon??). And I note that NO ONE in his own time thought as highly of him as we're trying to elevate him to now, after the fact.
Anyway, as I've elaborated on before, the things that stand out to me are: short prime, weak era, weak impact signals in said era, and accolades or opinions of contemporaries somewhat lacking too.

Rudy Gobert is one of my favorite players of all-time; but he suffers in my methodology for some of the same reasons Bobby Jones did: he's got just 10 seasons [missing a significant chunk in two of them], and averaged just 30.3 mpg within this span. Granted playing time skews lower these days, but it still rides right on the edge of "limited" at times. He's actually played <21k minutes prior to this season (even Bobby Jones had almost 5k more than that). That puts too much of a cap on his possible career value to this stage. Hagan is probably the ONLY one of the candidates I'd put Gobert ahead of presently.
And again: this is perhaps my favourite player of the league currently.

Rodman gets a lot of compliments that run along the lines of "GOAT-level rebounding and all-time tier defense". Except he was rarely [ever?] both of these things at the same time. He actively sacrificed good defense to be a GOAT-level rebounder. He can be seen neglecting to box guys out to instead "chase" the rebound (to his credit, his instincts were good, as was his quickness [especially on that second/third jump], and his energy in this endeavour was tenacious). He also completely gave up perimeter defense (one of the things he was known to be a versatile "stopper" with during early years in Detroit) to chase those rebounds. This is a big part of why Robert Horry goes off like an All-Star in the series against San Antonio: because Rodman is often no where to be found near his man.
His off-court antics and persona also leave a lot to be desired.
That said, his impact signals are at least decent/good, generally, and he was a key piece in a number of title teams. Still, I think his position in lists such as this overstate his value/importance.


If it came to runoff, I'd rate this field like so: Dantley > Lowry > Rodman > Gobert/Hagan



Nomination: Allen Iverson
Alternate nomination: Bob Cousy

I may swap these two, pending prevailing winds. Not a fan of Iverson; hate how I often end up being his defender.

Cousy's a legend, prototype [to a degree], key piece of multiple contenders, has an impact profile that's better than many assume, particularly considering the ORtg/DRtg's on bbref may be skewed by assumed turnover rates which may not apply to the Celtics of circa-1960 [because they were jacking up shots so early in the shotclock]......which means their offense was possibly better [and defense worse] than indicated.
See circa-post #20 in the #71 thread for further arguments regarding the Houdini of the Hardwood.

Iverson, while not efficient [as a shooter/scorer], he was able to shoulder immense offensive volume with a reasonably impressive turnover economy and semi-passable shooting efficiency (and I must admit that I do think the "Iverson assist" is a real thing: draw the help D at the rim, miss the shot, but now a big-man teammate is there with no one blocking him out). Not to mention his motor, which was insane, allowing him to be frequently #1 or #2 in mpg.
In these ways he could "carry" a team bereft of offensive talent or depth, and get them to tread water. It's not nothing.

And for better or worse [probably for worse], he was an icon to the sport, who influenced its trajectory to no small degree.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#5 » by AEnigma » Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:19 pm

Now that our own top 75 is complete, I thought it might be fun to compare with the “official” NBA top 75.

Then RealGM did its classic move and crashed my post. But with 18/19 deviations, I suppose potential insight would be minimal anyway.

What might be more productive is to look at the changes from our 2020 Top 75.

2023 Additions:
- Nikola Jokic
- Draymond Green
- Jimmy Butler
- Joel Embiid
- Paul George
- Damian Lillard
- Ben Wallace
- Bobby Jones

2023 Exclusions:
- Bob Cousy
- Adrian Dantley
- Allen Iverson
- Sam Jones
- Alex English
- Dominique Wilkins
- Tony Parker
- Kevin Johnson

So Ben and Bobby are the only two who managed to make a leap into the top 75 despite the addition of active players. Six active additions does feel a tad higher than expected average (not saying we were too generous, just saying I usually would not expect that many additions).

If we treat, mm… Gobert, Luka, and Tatum as givens for the next project, I wonder who else might make a push. I think Embiid suggests a certain peak performance for those with shorter careers, and the only other name I might consider on that front three years from now is Shai. There could be a Butler-esque run of success too; would someone like Booker or Mitchell qualify if they lead a team to two conference finals? Quite a tall ask, especially as the bar for top 75 entry becomes higher with every iteration of the project.

For the excluded, Cousy, Dantley, Iverson, and Sam have all stayed in the discussion enough that I could see them returning (maybe displacing Bobby or Ben or Rasheed or Lillard should Lillard fail to produce with the Bucks). The other four to me seem likely to have made their last appearance — although I would hold back on kicking them out of the top 100 entirely.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#6 » by WintaSoldier1 » Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:30 pm

Wow Kyle Lowry got in over Allen Iverson…

I’ve been silently watching for a while but my silence breaks for now, can’t promise a return back to full posting but my disbelief in the system has been put on the highest of alerts.

It’s time Iverson gets nominated, as he should of 15 spots ago
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#7 » by AEnigma » Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:39 pm

VOTE: Dennis Rodman
Alternate: Kyle Lowry
NOMINATE: Allen Iverson
AltNom: Bob Cousy

AEnigma wrote: Iverson and Rodman are my last inclusions on a sort of modified NBA top 75 (distinct from a pure CORP top 75). For Rodman, in addition to being a top three presence on two distinct dynasties (of a sort), I think his 1992 season qualifies as a top 100 peak. He has one of the highest career win percentages across an eleven-year stretch of quality play and is one of the league’s most notable rebounders and non-big defenders. With Rasheed and Bobby the favourites for the next two or three spots, I think Rodman fits in well as a strong tertiary piece on teams with title aspirations.

Much like with Isiah, I am surprisingly one of the first to back Iverson. Iverson had a pretty nice 10-to-12-year prime before his rapid decline. His cultural legacy outpaced his real impact, but his ability to shoulder massive minutes and scoring loads did have a notable lift on his team. The 76ers went from a -9.5 SRS team to a -5.5 team (factoring his missed games) upon his arrival. From 1997-2007, they won at a 33-win pace without him and a 42-win pace with him. That is not overwhelming improvement, but it is a lot of value provided over eleven years. His effect in Denver was more tepid — unsurprising given the scoring overlap with Carmelo — but I think he deserves credit for helping them reach what to that point was a new high mark in wins and SRS, and as I believe I have detailed elsewhere, the difference between the 2008 team and the 2009 team tends to be overstated (although Billups was indeed better for that team).

Doc’s comment on whether he would rather have prime Lowry or prime Iverson largely depends on roster structure. Iverson can handle a massive scoring and minutes load but is a less natural fit alongside most other high volume scorers because his passing was always a secondary consideration and his defence was mediocre to bad (depending on the size of his backcourt partner). Lowry has all the attractive supplemental skills: good distance shooter, good primary and secondary passer, smart and competent guard defence, decent quasi-first option scoring capacity but happy to scale down… I think Iverson is the more significant figure to the league, but yeah, Lowry was great and set a name for himself as the key player for a (young) franchise, so I am not going to complain about him receiving some love.

No strong opposition to Cousy, but also not particularly impressed by him and do not give him much credit for titles that I think could have been won with multiple other all-NBA point guards in his place. Would vote for him over contemporaries Hagan and Sam Jones though, and in the absence of any other notable candidates, I suppose I can back him as an alternate nomination.

Passive interest in Horford, Nance, Marion, Beaty, Cunningham, Worthy, English…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#8 » by penbeast0 » Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:24 pm

Nomination: Adrian Dantley Easily the greatest scorer left. Amazing combination of volume and efficiency.

One of only 5 players in NBA history to have a season over .400 TS Add, something neither LeBron James or Micheal Jordan ever accomplished! Of the top 11 guys in this stat, everyone else is in except for Alex Groza whose career was ended quickly over college point shaving scandals in the 50s. And it wasn't isolated, he was consistently among the league leaders in both scoring and efficiency for his whole career.

His history with coaches is mixed. Frank Layton in Utah ripped him publicly as a selfish player though he later tried to walk it back a few times. On the other hand, Chuck Daly praised his professionalism, work ethic, and even his defense. But basically he is a serious candidate as one of the greatest wing scorers to ever play and everyone close to him in volume and efficiency is in.

Code: Select all

TS ADD LEADERS (single season) -- thanks to Owly for posting this

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 460.4
Steph Curry 454.7
Charles Barkley 433.5
Wilt Chamberlain 430.3
Adrian Dantley 404.8

Kevin Durant 394.9
Oscar Robertson 392.5
Jerry West 374.3
George Mikan 365.5
Karl Malone 362.8

+ Alex Groza '50. 377.4



Alt vote: Rudy Gobert. Top defensive rim protector of the modern era for the last decade. Had one bad playoff series and people started saying that any modern team could just eliminate his playoff impact; I just don't believe it. Solid but not outstanding offensive player. I have him as slightly better relative to era than Dikembe Mutombo.

Nominate: Sam Jones Clutch scorer, consistent top 4 guard for most of a decade, slight edge over Sharman for era and Cousy for playoff performance.

Nominate: Bob Cousy I like Larry Nance and Shawn Marion who have been mentioned, another one like that is (Bullets homer mention) Bob Dandridge. If one of them get momentum, I'm happy to switch. But Cousy was the best guard of his era and while his playoff performances with Russell were James Harden level fails, his playmaking was still strong and his pre-Russell prime is the key to his case, not the rings where I feel he was the weak link in the Celtics lineup rather than a strength.

Iverson will not be a vote for me. He had one main skill, scoring, and compared to the other top scorers he was inefficient, selfish, and didn't space the floor while putting up his huge point totals. He played weak defense and was a miserable team leader. The whole "practice?" thing was emblematic of his missing practices and focusing on his personal glory rather than team goals. Great entertainer, not a great contributor to winning; he was the Pete Maravich of his era.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#9 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:05 pm

Vote: Kyle Lowry
Career on/off of +3.9 in the regular season and +9.5 in the playoffs with over 35K career minutes. Strong #2 on a championship team with a tremendous performance in Game 6 to clinch it. The king of doing things that don’t show up in the box score, but even the box score has him 52nd in career VORP and 61st in career win shares.

Nominate: Baron Davis
I see one more clearcut modern guy that should go before I start going to more historical nominees. Davis ranks 26th in career RAPM and 21st in age-adjusted RAPM. He’s also a tremendous playoff riser as his regular season 2.6 BPM and +6.8 on/off soar to a 6.1 BPM and +15.8 on/off in the postseason. His playoff BPM ranks 17th all-time. In 2007, he led the entire playoffs in BPM while knocking off the league leading Mavericks in a 1/8 matchup. He never really had the team around him to make a ton of noise in the playoffs so it’s easy for him to go under the radar, but his individual play was excellent.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#10 » by JimmyFromNz » Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:41 pm

VOTE : Adrian Dantley

Nomination: Bob Cousy

Springing out of hibernation with a short but sharp vote.

There's little to say about Cous that hasn't been said over decades of recognition.

- 10 years of comparatively elite production accompanied by team success he played no small part in.

- pioneered the point guard position whilst being the consensus best player at that position during the time period.

- individual accolades speak for themselves regardless of whether we nit pick it season-season.

- Bill Russell's halo seems to be used to negate Bob's individual game, which I think is largely unfair given what we know about his immediate impact on the pre-Russell teams and selection to all NBA team from his 2nd year onwards.


The historical drop across Top 100 project boards is notable for Cous, I'm not sure why given there isn't an emergence of any notable new information/data that would suggest such a significant drop, it appears sentiment based, whilst fellow players from the era remain either in similar places or notably in Schayes case rise significantly (70s into 40s).

We have access to an equal set of narrow information on this era, sporadic footage, then bolstered by if you like personal accounts from those within the era - where Cous was regarded far more highly relative to his peers. Which is why I find his notable fall more curious than anything.

If Kyle frickin Lowry gets picked over Bob Cousy at #76 whilst Dolph Schayes sits at #43 and Arizin #56 I'd feel like I've failed.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#11 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:10 am

JimmyFromNz wrote:VOTE : Bob Cousy

Springing out of hibernation with a short but sharp vote.

There's little to say about Cous that hasn't been said over decades of recognition.

- 10 years of comparatively elite production accompanied by team success he played no small part in.

- pioneered the point guard position whilst being the consensus best player at that position during the time period.

- individual accolades speak for themselves regardless of whether we nit pick it season-season.

- Bill Russell's halo seems to be used to negate Bob's individual game, which I think is largely unfair given what we know about his immediate impact on the pre-Russell teams and selection to all NBA team from his 2nd year onwards.


The historical drop across Top 100 project boards is notable for Cous, I'm not sure why given there isn't an emergence of any notable new information/data that would suggest such a significant drop, it appears sentiment based, whilst fellow players from the era remain either in similar places or notably in Schayes case rise significantly (70s into 40s).

We have access to an equal set of narrow information on this era, sporadic footage, then bolstered by if you like personal accounts from those within the era - where Cous was regarded far more highly relative to his peers. Which is why I find his notable fall more curious than anything.

If Kyle frickin Lowry gets picked over Bob Cousy at #76 whilst Dolph Schayes sits at #43 and Arizin #56 I'd feel like I've failed.

ALT: Adrian Dantley


Cousy hasn’t been nominated yet. I think what you meant to do was go:

Vote: Dantley

Nominate: Cousy


As for Lowry vs. Cousy, Lowry has better longevity, is a better defender, and if you look at his best 13 year stretch compared to Cousy’s 13 year career, you get:

Lowry: 18.5 PER, .163 WS/48
Cousy: 19.9 PER, .139 WS/48

Given that Cousy faced vastly inferior competition and declined sharply at age 29 as the league became more fully integrated, I’d say maybe you’re the one who’s basing things on sentiment rather than those who are letting Cousy fall down the list.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#12 » by trelos6 » Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:41 am

vote: Rudy Gobert

One of the best defensive players in the last 20 years, and he wasn’t a 0 on offense. Great screener. I have him with 7 All NBA level seasons, which is remarkable considering they are mostly from his defense.

Alt: Kyle Lowry

Of the players nominated, I have Kyle Lowry second. He has one amazing peak year, which was a weak MVP in my books. Another few All NBA level and a couple borderline All NBA/high end All Star seasons.

nom: Larry Nance

Very good player for 10 or so seasons. Just a solid player, which adds up at this point in the top 100.

Image


Alt nom: Shawn Marion

Sure, Phoenix was his ideal landing spot, but Marion’s unique game blossomed there and he was very effective as a high powered glue guy. Shorter prime, but when he was on, he was a force on both sides of the ball.

Image

A few other guys I have coming up: Terry Porter, Mo Cheeks, KJ, Iverson, Moncrief.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#13 » by trex_8063 » Fri Feb 23, 2024 3:44 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
JimmyFromNz wrote:VOTE : Bob Cousy

Springing out of hibernation with a short but sharp vote.

There's little to say about Cous that hasn't been said over decades of recognition.

- 10 years of comparatively elite production accompanied by team success he played no small part in.

- pioneered the point guard position whilst being the consensus best player at that position during the time period.

- individual accolades speak for themselves regardless of whether we nit pick it season-season.

- Bill Russell's halo seems to be used to negate Bob's individual game, which I think is largely unfair given what we know about his immediate impact on the pre-Russell teams and selection to all NBA team from his 2nd year onwards.


The historical drop across Top 100 project boards is notable for Cous, I'm not sure why given there isn't an emergence of any notable new information/data that would suggest such a significant drop, it appears sentiment based, whilst fellow players from the era remain either in similar places or notably in Schayes case rise significantly (70s into 40s).

We have access to an equal set of narrow information on this era, sporadic footage, then bolstered by if you like personal accounts from those within the era - where Cous was regarded far more highly relative to his peers. Which is why I find his notable fall more curious than anything.

If Kyle frickin Lowry gets picked over Bob Cousy at #76 whilst Dolph Schayes sits at #43 and Arizin #56 I'd feel like I've failed.

ALT: Adrian Dantley


Cousy hasn’t been nominated yet. I think what you meant to do was go:

Vote: Dantley

Nominate: Cousy

As for Lowry vs. Cousy, Lowry has better longevity, is a better defender, and if you look at his best 13 year stretch compared to Cousy’s 13 year career, you get:

Lowry: 18.5 PER, .163 WS/48
Cousy: 19.9 PER, .139 WS/48

Given that Cousy faced vastly inferior competition and declined sharply at age 29 as the league became more fully integrated, I’d say maybe you’re the one who’s basing things on sentiment rather than those who are letting Cousy fall down the list.


Most of what you say here is true, with the possible exception of "declined sharply at age 29". '58 [age 29] was a down year, but in '59 [age 30] he bounces back to pretty close to what he did in his MVP season.....

'57: 20.6 ppg @ +0.28% rTS, 4.8 rpg, 7.5 apg. 21.2 PER, .178 WS/48 in 36.9 mpg.
'59: 20.0 ppg @ -0.38% rTS, 5.5 rpg, 8.6 apg. 19.9 PER, .174 WS/48 in 37.0 mpg.

I'd note that his playoff numbers are marginally BETTER in '58 than in '57, with '59 only slightly behind.

It's beginning in '60 [at age 31] that we truly begin to see some decline relative to league, though I'd still argue it's not exactly "sharp" (only slight in rs, actually, though notable in playoffs).


Otherwise, while the rest is true, it's only fair and prudent [when comparing things like PER, etc] that he played in an era less "paved" for perimeter play (e.g. no 3pt line, hand-checking still allowed, REALLY tight ball-handling restrictions, lane still only 12' [erring style toward interior bigs], etc).

He loomed much larger at his position in his era than did Lowry in his, too (as evidenced by the GREATLY lop-sided comparison in accolades). And fwiw, was much more influential and/or "prototypical" of the position than Lowry.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#14 » by Samurai » Fri Feb 23, 2024 3:56 am

Vote for #76: Adrian Dantley. I acknowledge that the 6-time all star can be a polarizing player. But in his prime he was an elite scorer, leading the league twice and finished in the top ten in ppg 5 times. Preferred higher percentage shots closer to the rim rather than hoisting 30-footers, finishing in the top 15 in TS% for a dozen consecutive years. He was also a magnet at drawing fouls, finishing in the top ten in FT attempts 10 times, leading the league twice.ote : Adrian Dantley. I acknowledge that the 6-time all star can be a polarizing player. But in his prime he was an elite scorer, leading the league twice and finished in the top ten in ppg 5 times. Preferred higher percentage shots closer to the rim rather than hoisting 30-footers, finishing in the top 15 in TS% for a dozen consecutive years. He was also a magnet at drawing fouls, finishing in the top ten in FT attempts 10 times, leading the league twice.

Alternate vote: Dennis Rodman. Never been a big Rodman fan but can't see picking the other nominees over him. Elite defender with seven All Defensive First Team selections and one second team. Led the league in rebounds/game seven times and might be the GOAT offensive rebounder (toss-up with Moses for me). And of course, that photo of him in the list of nominees diving for the ball is just classic!

Nomination: Sam Jones. Ten rings but some will take that with a grain of salt for being Russell's teammate. Three-time All NBA Second Team (cursed by playing guard at the same time that Oscar and West were in their primes) and had three top ten finishes in MVP voting. Seven top twenty finishes in both points/game and TS% indicates that he was not only a scoring threat but an efficient shooter as well. I don't have a good feel on how good he was on defense; he had 9 top twenty finishes in DWS but Russell was obviously the primary driver of the team's excellent defense and KC Jones typically drew the assignment of defending the opposing team's primary backcourt scorer. One of the greatest bank shot artists of all-time; he was banking in shots before Tim Duncan was even born.

Alternate nomination: Sidney Moncrief. Doesn't have elite longevity but has six strong seasons of prime. Great all around player who impacted the game with his scoring, playmaking, defense and leadership. Also consistently finished in the top 3 in rebounds/game among guards during his prime. Moncrief didn't have a ton of success in the play-offs but he did consistently manage to lead teams to the play-offs and be competitive against stacked 76ers and Celtics teams. Five time all star with five All NBA Team selections (one first team and four seconds). Outstanding defender with five All Defensive Team selections, four of them on the first team.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#15 » by JimmyFromNz » Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:29 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
JimmyFromNz wrote:VOTE : Bob Cousy

Springing out of hibernation with a short but sharp vote.

There's little to say about Cous that hasn't been said over decades of recognition.

- 10 years of comparatively elite production accompanied by team success he played no small part in.

- pioneered the point guard position whilst being the consensus best player at that position during the time period.

- individual accolades speak for themselves regardless of whether we nit pick it season-season.

- Bill Russell's halo seems to be used to negate Bob's individual game, which I think is largely unfair given what we know about his immediate impact on the pre-Russell teams and selection to all NBA team from his 2nd year onwards.


The historical drop across Top 100 project boards is notable for Cous, I'm not sure why given there isn't an emergence of any notable new information/data that would suggest such a significant drop, it appears sentiment based, whilst fellow players from the era remain either in similar places or notably in Schayes case rise significantly (70s into 40s).

We have access to an equal set of narrow information on this era, sporadic footage, then bolstered by if you like personal accounts from those within the era - where Cous was regarded far more highly relative to his peers. Which is why I find his notable fall more curious than anything.

If Kyle frickin Lowry gets picked over Bob Cousy at #76 whilst Dolph Schayes sits at #43 and Arizin #56 I'd feel like I've failed.

ALT: Adrian Dantley


Cousy hasn’t been nominated yet. I think what you meant to do was go:

Vote: Dantley

Nominate: Cousy

As for Lowry vs. Cousy, Lowry has better longevity, is a better defender, and if you look at his best 13 year stretch compared to Cousy’s 13 year career, you get:

Lowry: 18.5 PER, .163 WS/48
Cousy: 19.9 PER, .139 WS/48

Given that Cousy faced vastly inferior competition and declined sharply at age 29 as the league became more fully integrated, I’d say maybe you’re the one who’s basing things on sentiment rather than those who are letting Cousy fall down the list.


My mistake regarding the process.

But completely push back on the sentiment based suggestion. Especially considering the highly selective criteria you've applied, when we just throw out all other supporting arguments for Cousy whether thats as a passer, leader, scorer (relative to era), individual or team accolades. E.g. being an all nba-MVP calibre player in his era throughout. Relative to era they just aren't the same calibre.

1. Longevity - what claim does Kyle have for better longevity beyond an arbitrary count of seasons played?

We have to assess the quality of those seasons. Kyle as we know was a late bloomer, and was not even a starter for his first 3 seasons, he has about 10 seasons where he's a valued starter, 7-8 of all star calibre play. Bob had 13 seasons playing at or near an all nba level. They're essentially sitting at the same level of meaningful seasons, yet Bob relative to his era is consistently playing at a higher level. That is without acknowledging the vast advantage Lowry has with access to modern training and medicine to prolong a career of high level play.

Bob didnt decline sharply at 29, that's not supported by fact. He regressed in his final 2 seasons and chose family reasons to retire at 34 - as you would given the logistical nightmare the league was then.

2. A comparison of PER (despite favouring Cousy) really tells us little when not accounting for removal of defensive boxscore statistics and highly superficial pace adjustment as a replacement. If we want to persist with it, then contextually we can look at where they sit on the all time list given this is an all time discussion. Bob is 92nd, Lowry is 206th. Additionally I'm not entirely sure what to take from a win share comparison that is contextually bereft and calculated differently across each era?

My underlying point would be there are very little if any insightful statistical comparisons we can make between the 1950s and 2010-2020s (noting Lowry's WS accumulated within a historically weak EC where the one year with Kawhi was essentially the only time they were considered serious contenders vs a weak but highly concentrated league setting of the 50s). All things considered we aren't really going to rank players based on their W/S as a determining factor?

In that case we'd be arguing Lowry over Mikan and Arizin as well.

On a broader point I'm well versed in the arguments against Cous that unpick the historical legacy from reality, and I generally agree with them, namely the efficiency aspect and impact of certain 'factors' that only playing in the 50-60s could afford a white player. I take these on board wholeheartedly, especially when comparing the resumes of all time players at say the 50 mark, I'm a modernist by nature (so typically penalise older players heavily), but to have him fall outside of the top 75 alongside a mid tier all star, fringe all nba player, seems completely inconsistent with the logic afforded other players from that era.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#16 » by homecourtloss » Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:42 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Spoiler:
Alright, we're 3/4ths of the way there now! Looking forward to comparing our 75 to the NBA's list.

Wanted to share something else I just compiled because we were talking about Top X 5-year RAPM performances for players based on Cheema's numbers. So I made a spreadsheet binning those numbers by thresholds:

Cheema 5-year RAPM Bins

I did this for basically all the guys I could think of - if there's an all-star from the +/- era not listed, it's because they never made Top 30 on Cheema's metrics (unless I made a mistake).
Those already Inducted are in yellow.
Sorting order based on the most times making the cut in the most elite categories.

Just to post a little something more, here are highest sorted guys not already Inducted:

Kyle Lowry
Baron Davis
Amir Johnson
Kyle Korver
LaMarcus Aldridge

Lowry just got nominated so obviously we're taking him seriously.

Baron is, as always, someone who looks way more consistently elite in these numbers than you'd expect.

Amir is a pretty classic case of a pure role player who always scored high on these metrics, and I'm really not looking to advocate for him here, though we can discuss if that's informative.

Korver is someone who was once in the Amir category but did make all-star once. I frankly think he should get discussion in this project but there are obvious concerns.

Aldridge is someone I'm always low on but I can't deny that he comes off looking quite legit just looking at the numbers. For me, while I don't love it when players want out of a non-contending situation, it bothers me more when players become problematic when paired with other great players. Aldridge went from talking about being a Blazer for life to wanting out as Lillard improved, and he also struggled psychologically in San Antonio once he realized that it was pretty clearly Kawhi's team...which he somehow didn't understand when he signed there.

In real life preferring to be a big fish in a small pond isn't that damning, but in a place like the NBA where contending for titles is the point, I'm not keen on guys who are not capable of leading serious contenders resist playing a more appropriate role.

In fairness to Aldridge, he did find a way to get right with being a beta with the Spurs with Pop's handholding so it's not like there was absolutely no way to reach him no matter the situation, but in all honesty, Aldridge choosing to leave the Blazers kept the team from reaching their potential in the 2010s, and as far as I can tell that franchise did nothing wrong with Aldridge and the team that acquired him were able to do so in part because he had an unrealistic expectation for his primacy there too.

To mention some of the guys on the list whose careers were not captured in their full longevity:

Stockton looks amazing.
Jordan's peak leaves no doubt.
Shaq looks quite good.
Robinson looks great, though given how long he played, I kinda thought he'd show up here more times.
Vlade Divac looks like a consistent all-star level impactor despite us missing his first 7 years.
Reggie looks pretty solid.
And would you look at Old Man Sabas


Great idea to bin top 1 and top 5 period ranks, Doc.

—Lowry with three top 5 periods, six top 7s, and seven top 10s looks really strong in line with what many have thought about him.
—Iverson, meanwhile, looks even more pedestrian when binned than looking at career RAPM.
—LeBron with 11 top 1 periods is ludicrous, 175% higher than the second most, 450% higher than the third most. :lol:

Vote: Kyle Lowry
Alt Vote: Rudy Gobert
Nomination: Baron Davis

Players in this area of the list likely cannot be the best players on their teams and lead them to titles, but can be the second best type player while adding to winning and that’s something Lowry did as he didn’t have any weaknesses in his game and added to winning margins in a variety of ways on both offense and defense.

Rudy has been a generational defender in the toughest era for bigs to play defense and hasn’t been a zero or negative on offense! something that’s rarely the case for generational defenders.

Baron has an issue with longevity and staying healthy, so I might not vote for him for a while if in, but while he was on court, he was an impact terror whose game and impact only went up in the playoffs.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#17 » by homecourtloss » Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:43 pm

WintaSoldier1 wrote:Wow Kyle Lowry got in over Allen Iverson…

I’ve been silently watching for a while but my silence breaks for now, can’t promise a return back to full posting but my disbelief in the system has been put on the highest of alerts.

It’s time Iverson gets nominated, as he should of 15 spots ago


Why?
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#18 » by OhayoKD » Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:24 pm

JimmyFromNz wrote:VOTE : Adrian Dantley

The historical drop across Top 100 project boards is notable for Cous, I'm not sure why given there isn't an emergence of any notable new information/data that would suggest such a significant drop, it appears sentiment based, whilst fellow players from the era remain either in similar places or notably in Schayes case rise significantly (70s into 40s).

Pretty much all the "russell teammate x" posts have been accompanied by data over these last few posts. if anything this response strikes me as sentiment based. "new" obviously doesn't really matter if the evidence fits; offensive "production" for titles won on defense is not particularly meaningful imo.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#19 » by eminence » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:09 pm

Think I'm leaning Lowry over Gobert after a bit more thought, think the longevity just edges out the peak for me.

If Rudy had had this season last season, maybe not, but '23 was really a bit of a dud.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #76 (Deadline ~5am PST, 2/25/24) 

Post#20 » by WintaSoldier1 » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:16 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
WintaSoldier1 wrote:Wow Kyle Lowry got in over Allen Iverson…

I’ve been silently watching for a while but my silence breaks for now, can’t promise a return back to full posting but my disbelief in the system has been put on the highest of alerts.

It’s time Iverson gets nominated, as he should of 15 spots ago


Why?


To sum it up, the lack of original train of thought[Which is what makes a project worthwhile] and in replacement analytical instruments[Analytics & it's extensions] used to defend/attack players. Sometimes when reading these posts, I feel as if we are just another extension of analytical tools ourselves. Defined by our own criteria and boundaries of formula[What we consider when evaluating] and then posting it here on the forum!

But, I cannot fathom a world where someone truly believes that Allen Iverson is a worse basketball player than Kyle lowry. If you want to advocate for "Winning Basketball" and "Correlative Success based on tendencies and indicators", OKAY.

But Iverson, is a better basketball player than Lowry. There's just more ways he effects/contributes to the game from a psychoanalytical perspective[Basically the treatment/attention you're going to give this player while playing against them] than Kyle lowry does.

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