NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[B-easy]

In the recent past all winners have been 1st (some 2nd) in WS/48. SGA and Jokic are battling in out for 1st. There is a big gap between them and Giannis and Luka.

Giannis and Luka will have to win 3-4 more games than SGA/Jokic to have a chance.

[Mavrelous]

Jokic in 31 mins:

21/19/15 shooting 100% from the field.

Best player in the world. His MVP to lose.

Definitely the best in the world, but he's been mailing it in for many games, and the team is under performing, and it's the only reason the MVP race is close.

[Wolfgang630]

Yeah I wish joker would take this mvp serious and start putting up big stats.

[HotRocks34]

Luka now in 3rd. Jokic and SGA hold their spots.

[RunOKC]

SGA is on pace to hit 30 points in 60/82 games this season. Currently at 40/55.

Only four players have ever done that
Wilt (5x- only guy to do it more than once)
MJ (Hit 59 once as well)
Kareem
Tiny Archibald

On top of that he’s a great playmaker/defender and it doesn’t ever feel like he’s forcing anything. Incredible player.

[AleksandarN]

Jokic in 31 mins:

21/19/15 shooting 100% from the field.

Best player in the world. His MVP to lose.

Definitely the best in the world, but he's been mailing it in for many games, and the team is under performing, and it's the only reason the MVP race is close.

The team has not been underperforming given Murray was out for a month and several injuries to kcp and AG.

[Handlez]

Luka has seriously entered the chat.

If they keep winning, I think he may win it.

[Bob8]

I don’t get the SGA push for MVP.

Thunder one of the healthiest teams so far, Mavs one of the most banged up and they are just a couple of games ahead AND SGA has worse stats…

And for all of Luka's stats tonight, he didn't make up any ground as SGA just led the Thunder to a blowout win over the fully healthy Clippers.

Bookies believe he is. He made a huge jump from +1.200 to +600.

[DrModesty]

I don’t get the SGA push for MVP.

Thunder one of the healthiest teams so far, Mavs one of the most banged up and they are just a couple of games ahead AND SGA has worse stats…

And for all of Luka's stats tonight, he didn't make up any ground as SGA just led the Thunder to a blowout win over the fully healthy Clippers.

Bookies believe he is. He made a huge jump from +1.200 to +600.

Well his odds in the moment have definitely improved so I guess that proves me wrong in one respect, but I can't help but feel that this was largely external to the actual games tonight. By and large the gain Luka made seems to be at the expense of Giannis and the current skepticism of the Bucks. As it is SGA's odds also improved slightly and Jokic's got worse despite an extremely rare perfect triple double.

Excitingly Luka and SGA match up in the final game of the season. It could be a literal duel for MVP if things don't go well for Jokic between now and then.

[Bob8]

And for all of Luka's stats tonight, he didn't make up any ground as SGA just led the Thunder to a blowout win over the fully healthy Clippers.

Bookies believe he is. He made a huge jump from +1.200 to +600.

Well his odds in the moment have definitely improved so I guess that proves me wrong in one respect, but I can't help but feel that this was largely external to the actual games tonight. By and large the gain Luka made seems to be at the expense of Giannis and the current skepticism of the Bucks. As it is SGA's odds also improved slightly and Jokic's got worse despite an extremely rare perfect triple double.

Excitingly Luka and SGA match up in the final game of the season. It could be a literal duel for MVP if things don't go well for Jokic between now and then.

It was really big overnight jump, I guess people noticed 7:0 run, with very convincing wins against OKC and Suns.

The biggest difference in SGA's and Luka's odds is Mavs' don't having any room for mistakes anymore. They're going to very difficult east coast trip and if they don't deliver, it will be more or less game over for Luka's MVP chances.

I don't believe Luka will be MVP this year, but if Mavs continue to improve their game, they will be scary opponents for everyone in playoffs. Luka's and Kyrie's game is built for playoffs and if Mavs continue to play good D, they will be very difficult to beat. First they have to come there of course and finally have some luck with injuries.

[Yuri36]

Bookies believe he is. He made a huge jump from +1.200 to +600.

Well his odds in the moment have definitely improved so I guess that proves me wrong in one respect, but I can't help but feel that this was largely external to the actual games tonight. By and large the gain Luka made seems to be at the expense of Giannis and the current skepticism of the Bucks. As it is SGA's odds also improved slightly and Jokic's got worse despite an extremely rare perfect triple double.

Excitingly Luka and SGA match up in the final game of the season. It could be a literal duel for MVP if things don't go well for Jokic between now and then.

It was really big overnight jump, I guess people noticed 7:0 run, with very convincing wins against OKC and Suns.

The biggest difference in SGA's and Luka's odds is Mavs' don't having any room for mistakes anymore. They're going to very difficult east coast trip and if they don't deliver, it will be more or less game over for Luka's MVP chances.

I don't believe Luka will be MVP this year, but if Mavs continue to improve their game, they will be scary opponents for everyone in playoffs. Luka's and Kyrie's game is built for playoffs and if Mavs continue to play good D, they will be very difficult to beat. First they have to come there of course and finally have some luck with injuries.

I think you're underrating the fact that OKC will most certainly slow down at one point, they've been certainly overperforming considering their roster.
Whereas that's the reverse for Mavs with all their injuries and now they're much stronger inside the racket since they got Gafford.

[Bob8]

For all +/- lovers, Luka has + 21.6 net rtg in last 7 games. In that time Jokic has - 0.2 and SGA + 2.7. I wonder what has changed in those last 7 games for Luka?

[Bob8]

Well his odds in the moment have definitely improved so I guess that proves me wrong in one respect, but I can't help but feel that this was largely external to the actual games tonight. By and large the gain Luka made seems to be at the expense of Giannis and the current skepticism of the Bucks. As it is SGA's odds also improved slightly and Jokic's got worse despite an extremely rare perfect triple double.

Excitingly Luka and SGA match up in the final game of the season. It could be a literal duel for MVP if things don't go well for Jokic between now and then.

It was really big overnight jump, I guess people noticed 7:0 run, with very convincing wins against OKC and Suns.

The biggest difference in SGA's and Luka's odds is Mavs' don't having any room for mistakes anymore. They're going to very difficult east coast trip and if they don't deliver, it will be more or less game over for Luka's MVP chances.

I don't believe Luka will be MVP this year, but if Mavs continue to improve their game, they will be scary opponents for everyone in playoffs. Luka's and Kyrie's game is built for playoffs and if Mavs continue to play good D, they will be very difficult to beat. First they have to come there of course and finally have some luck with injuries.

I think you're underrating the fact that OKC will most certainly slow down at one point, they've been certainly overperforming considering their roster.
Whereas that's the reverse for Mavs with all their injuries and now they're much stronger inside the racket since they got Gafford.

Unfortunately nobody cares about injuries, so Mavs can't afford to lose many games till the end, if Luka wants to be in conversation. OKC on the other hand can lose few more easily.

[DrModesty]

Well his odds in the moment have definitely improved so I guess that proves me wrong in one respect, but I can't help but feel that this was largely external to the actual games tonight. By and large the gain Luka made seems to be at the expense of Giannis and the current skepticism of the Bucks. As it is SGA's odds also improved slightly and Jokic's got worse despite an extremely rare perfect triple double.

Excitingly Luka and SGA match up in the final game of the season. It could be a literal duel for MVP if things don't go well for Jokic between now and then.

It was really big overnight jump, I guess people noticed 7:0 run, with very convincing wins against OKC and Suns.

The biggest difference in SGA's and Luka's odds is Mavs' don't having any room for mistakes anymore. They're going to very difficult east coast trip and if they don't deliver, it will be more or less game over for Luka's MVP chances.

I don't believe Luka will be MVP this year, but if Mavs continue to improve their game, they will be scary opponents for everyone in playoffs. Luka's and Kyrie's game is built for playoffs and if Mavs continue to play good D, they will be very difficult to beat. First they have to come there of course and finally have some luck with injuries.

I think you're underrating the fact that OKC will most certainly slow down at one point, they've been certainly overperforming considering their roster.
Whereas that's the reverse for Mavs with all their injuries and now they're much stronger inside the racket since they got Gafford.

Will they slow down? OKC have a pretty forgiving remaining schedule and no current injury worries. Even Hayward is healthy at the moment.

[Andri]

The best players are Joker and Luka, then Giannis and Shai. But if you account for narrative of the season, SGA and Joker are the front runners. Luka will have to keep on with the streak and end at least 5th (achievable)

[Exp0sed]

For all +/- lovers, Luka has + 21.6 net rtg in last 7 games. In that time Jokic has - 0.2 and SGA + 2.7. I wonder what has changed in those last 7 games for Luka?

yup

after the three straight games since the trades where I noted he had at least +18 in each (after failing to record +18 or better in even two consesucutive game all season and has only notched that mark in 5/44 games) he had a +9 in his 4th game since the trade

what a coinidence hmm

like I argued over and over, I expect this trend to continue. Luka is going to post elite +- numbers the rest of the season as long as Kyrie is playing and Dallas is fielding an actual NBA team, with skill and size

we won't go into again but there are alot of possible contributing factors for his rather anomalous career thus far.
the proponents of +- should consider those contextual aspect, how about getting rid of someone like G. Williams in the lineup?

Williams was awful, his offense is sub-par on the best of days but after a decent start (by his measly standards), Williams was unplayable. thus the only realistic way Kidd could play him was alongside Luka. with Luka being as good as he is offensively (which arguably is the best in the league and is top 3-5 at the very least for sure), there's some hope in getting away with playing a player as limited offensively as Williams.

Williams has played 1242 mins for Dallas before getting traded and 902 of those were with Doncic. However that total includes a 184 mins in games where Williams played but Luka missed the game entirely, so in fact Kidd has intentionally "saddled" Luka with Williams for 902/1058 "possible" mins

he knew he had no prayer at being effective while playing Williams without Luka on the floor. that's just one example of why context, schemes, tactics etc. matter a lot

as we predicted - suddenly when he isn't saddled with say..Williams (among other things), he's miraclously posting much better +-numbers

shocking, isn't it?

[Exp0sed]

Unfortunately nobody cares about injuries, so Mavs can't afford to lose many games till the end, if Luka wants to be in conversation. OKC on the other hand can lose few more easily.

I somewhat disagree
there are many different factors which drive an MVP case\narrative, wins\seedings are def a huge factor but they are far from the only factor. OKC has 5 more wins over Dallas, that's significant but voters are still aware SGA (and his running mates) have barely missed games while Luka has missed a bit more and Kyrie has missed aot

is SGA a better defender? sure but MVP has usually been more offensive oriented. Luka is averaging 34.3\8.8\9.6! that's video game numbers and SGA's incredible 31\5.5\6.6 look pretty pale in comparison

SGA is doing what's he's doing on 64.8 TS% (which is pretty bonkers for a Guard on such volume) but offense is exploding all around and Luka is scoring over 10% more per game on 62.1 TS%.. when u factor in almost double the assists and alot more rebounds - that def balances out a few more wins for OKC, especially given the injuries to the Mavs and the relative health of the Thunder

Luka is also a much bigger name and star and has already been selected for All-NBA teams, been to the WCF and has even recieved some MVP votes in past seasons. so Luka has all that going for him when going up against SGA this season

the reality is SGA is doing his thing mostly through efficiency scoring the ball and not turning it over and playing great defense. while that might make him an analytic darling, that type of player tends to get less buzz than the guy averging almost a 35 pt triple double while also producing some crazy 50\15\12 numbers from time to time or say..having the 4th highest scoring game in NBA history

if OKC finish 1st AND 4-5 games from the Mavs, he might get more love but if it ends like idk...OKC 3rd with a couple of games over 4th or 5th Mavs - SGA won't win it over Luka

I excluded Jokic, Giannis or anyone else cuz I just tried to focous on SGA vs. Luka

[Bob8]

For all +/- lovers, Luka has + 21.6 net rtg in last 7 games. In that time Jokic has - 0.2 and SGA + 2.7. I wonder what has changed in those last 7 games for Luka?

yup

after the three straight games since the trades where I noted he had at least +18 in each (after failing to record +18 or better in even two consesucutive game all season and has only notched that mark in 5/44 games) he had a +9 in his 4th game since the trade

what a coinidence hmm

like I argued over and over, I expect this trend to continue. Luka is going to post elite +- numbers the rest of the season as long as Kyrie is playing and Dallas is fielding an actual NBA team, with skill and size

we won't go into again but there are alot of possible contributing factors for his rather anomalous career thus far.
the proponents of +- should consider those contextual aspect, how about getting rid of someone like G. Williams in the lineup?

Williams was awful, his offense is sub-par on the best of days but after a decent start (by his measly standards), Williams was unplayable. thus the only realistic way Kidd could play him was alongside Luka. with Luka being as good as he is offensively (which arguably is the best in the league and is top 3-5 at the very least for sure), there's some hope in getting away with playing a player as limited offensively as Williams.

Williams has played 1242 mins for Dallas before getting traded and 902 of those were with Doncic. However that total includes a 184 mins in games where Williams played but Luka missed the game entirely, so in fact Kidd has intentionally "saddled" Luka with Williams for 902/1058 "possible" mins

he knew he had no prayer at being effective while playing Williams without Luka on the floor. that's just one example of why context, schemes, tactics etc. matter a lot

as we predicted - suddenly when he isn't saddled with say..Williams (among other things), he's miraclously posting much better +-numbers

shocking, isn't it?

It's really huge difference in lineups. Kyrie being back is huge in offensive side, but there's even bigger difference in D. They got Lively and Kleber back and added Gafford and Washington. Defensive lineups before and after are totally incomparable. Mavs have 101.7 defensive rtg in last 4 games, playing against OKC and Suns.

I know that those numbers are non sustainable, but you don't need to look at any stats to understand how much better, especially defensively, new roster is.

[Crunch 99]

In the recent past all winners have been 1st (some 2nd) in WS/48. SGA and Jokic are battling in out for 1st. There is a big gap between them and Giannis and Luka.

Giannis and Luka will have to win 3-4 more games than SGA/Jokic to have a chance.

I didn't realize WS/48 has been a good indicator, but it makes some sense. How far back does it hold up? Here are the WS/48 leaders:


Here are the PER leaders, which also has been a pretty good indicator:

[MoneyTalks41890]

SGA definitely the best two way guard in the league. I think Joel is still the better two way player overall. But in the MVP race it's looking like Shai's to lose at the moment, since Embiid will be DQed and team record factors as it does.