dougthonus wrote:DuckIII wrote:In the big picture this is good news for the Bulls. It kills Pat’s feee agency and is highly likely to result in the QO to give another year to firm up an opinion on his game and value, or a sweetheart deal because Pat opts to take a few years of lower guaranteed money.
The only bad news in the long view is that to the extent there was an opportunity to include him to sweeten a larger deal this summer, that is now pretty much off the table.
NBA contracts are far from a perfect market, but his next contract will be given based on his market value factoring in all known risks and rewards. If you knew he was going to be much better in the future and you knew this injury wouldn't hamper him at all, then there would be no discount.
If he ends up on a cheap deal it will be because decision makers perceive there to be real risk. From a managerial perspective, Pat's now a high risk asset. High risk assets sometimes pay off in the way you state, but you always have the opportunity to take on high risk assets every year in many forms.
His outcomes having much greater variability and thus his price tag being cheaper is not a benefit in and of itself. It's only a benefit if the good outcomes happen despite the increased risks, but there's no reason to assume that. If that were true, then there would be no risks to begin with and the contract wouldn't be less (unless the risks were not real but imagined due to bias or something else).
So he still has to become good. Got it. I’d still rather find out on a cheaper deal.