Official Summer 2024 Magic Free Agency and Trade Ideas Thread 3.0

[eyriq]

Is Black's usage low mainly because of "fit" or because we have so many other scoring options as others have suggested on here? This implies that Black would be putting up way bigger numbers on another team.

Or is it low because the guy really cant shoot the ball and for a guard who is playing point and typically has the ball way above the three point line and trying to attack in a 24 second shot clock, this is way bigger problem.

I don't buy the argument that he has to sacrifice his offense when our team is 24th in offensive efficiency. It's not like we are holding back Tracy mcGrady here, who still got 15 a game playing next to Vince in Toronto.

I agree with this.

Black averaged 13.5 PPG, 4.0 APG as a high school senior and 12.8 PPG and 3.9 APG as a college freshman.

It stands to reason that there is NOT some big scorer or big assist guy who simply isn't getting an opportunity in there.

He's always been a complimentary kind of player, which is ultimately what he's very, very likely to end up being here.

And yes, I know they had a long winning streak this year with Black starting, but that's more outlier than reality.

It's incredibly difficult to have success offensively when one of your guards has a usage rate under 15%. It's basically 4 on 5.

What's the distribution of college players APG? I'll wait.

[yoyojw17]

Is Black's usage low mainly because of "fit" or because we have so many other scoring options as others have suggested on here? This implies that Black would be putting up way bigger numbers on another team.

Or is it low because the guy really cant shoot the ball and for a guard who is playing point and typically has the ball way above the three point line and trying to attack in a 24 second shot clock, this is way bigger problem.

I don't buy the argument that he has to sacrifice his offense when our team is 24th in offensive efficiency. It's not like we are holding back Tracy mcGrady here, who still got 15 a game playing next to Vince in Toronto.

I agree with this.

Black averaged 13.5 PPG, 4.0 APG as a high school senior and 12.8 PPG and 3.9 APG as a college freshman.

It stands to reason that there is NOT some big scorer or big assist guy who simply isn't getting an opportunity in there.

He's always been a complimentary kind of player, which is ultimately what he's very, very likely to end up being here.

And yes, I know they had a long winning streak this year with Black starting, but that's more outlier than reality.

It's incredibly difficult to have success offensively when one of your guards has a usage rate under 15%. It's basically 4 on 5.

I'm guessing you weren't one of the people that wanted him during the draft. Because of none of those numbers have changed and he's been that player even in the draft. Jett Howard ... might have shocked many at 11.... BUT Black ran up the board for the draft and I remember many people were excited that we got him.

Now .... he plays a similar role as even when they use Fultz "low usage".... but still shoots an efficient percentage from both the field and 3. While giving them excellent defence as a 19 year old. Can't be connective tissue player until the offense starts including you. Maybe others would rather see him get every opportunity now .... such and get better..... but being brought along slowly isn't a bad idea ever.

Might be crazy to think .... but the PG position in the starting lineup has been suppressed all season. Feels like it is by design for focus on Franz and Paolo growth. Would love to see a shift...but hey have their plan for him and jett... and I trust their approach.

[KillMonger]

A backup who was THE SIXTH PICK

you seem to have forgot that part

not really, my expectations are for any rookie is to just show flashes....AB has done that so far i can't complain....i just wish we see him play more and not be victim to dnp's....can't speak for anyone else but i can't be so definitive in year 1...there's so much more work and time ahead of the kid it's not even funny....thankfully enough he's one of those guys that's always in the gym, i'm good with what i've seen so far he's building a good foundation

Man people are just suckers for pain

Don't look now kiddo but there are plenty of rookies this season who are doing much more than just "showing flashes" and many of them were taken much lower than 6th as well.

Lively in Dallas, Jaquez, Miller and Wemby just off the top of my head.

Black's winshares number is in the middle of the pack and this is really only because he has shared the court with our stars.

Hilarious I'm a grown man being called "kiddo" anyway I'm not worried about what other teams are doing or have done with their rooks .....i tend to not try and cry over spilled milk, what's done is done... I want to try and see whatever they saw in AB.....im not trying to convince anyone why I like what I've seen out of AB.... I like his foundation, the size and work ethic... Honestly I thought the plan was for BOTH AB and jett to be in the G league but the injuries changed that and he was thrown into the fire when he probably wasn't supposed to....

Me personally you can look up my post history at the time I'm on record saying that I didn't care who we get we have paolo and Franz already.... I wasn't high on this draft class beside wemby.... So I thought no matter who we got I doubt they'd be stars... My expectations coming in were tempered so for AB to be doing what he's doing now is meeting and somewhat exceeding what I expected for a rookie.... He's playing his role, I can live with that...even though I think there is more to his game than he's allowed to show especially when it comes to pick and roll.... Then again markelle is more or less in the same role, dribble the ball past half court then pass it to franz or paolo then stand in the corner or the dunkers spot.....Fultz has a bit more freedom to call his own number but that's what mose wants... I'm cool with that

Sent from my [Hands] using RealGM mobile app

[eyriq]

Is Black's usage low mainly because of "fit" or because we have so many other scoring options as others have suggested on here? This implies that Black would be putting up way bigger numbers on another team.

Or is it low because the guy really cant shoot the ball and for a guard who is playing point and typically has the ball way above the three point line and trying to attack in a 24 second shot clock, this is way bigger problem.

I don't buy the argument that he has to sacrifice his offense when our team is 24th in offensive efficiency. It's not like we are holding back Tracy mcGrady here, who still got 15 a game playing next to Vince in Toronto.

I agree with this.

Black averaged 13.5 PPG, 4.0 APG as a high school senior and 12.8 PPG and 3.9 APG as a college freshman.

It stands to reason that there is NOT some big scorer or big assist guy who simply isn't getting an opportunity in there.

He's always been a complimentary kind of player, which is ultimately what he's very, very likely to end up being here.

And yes, I know they had a long winning streak this year with Black starting, but that's more outlier than reality.

It's incredibly difficult to have success offensively when one of your guards has a usage rate under 15%. It's basically 4 on 5.

What's the distribution of college players APG? I'll wait.

Times up. Among freshman players in 2023 that played more than 16.5 MPG, Anthony Black is in the:

75th percentile in usage rate
90th percentile in points per game
84th percentile in rebounds per game
97th percentile in assists per game
99th percentile in steals per game
85th percentile in blocks per game
95th percentile in free throw rate
95th percentile in offensive box score plus minus
97th percentile in defensive box score plus minus

You are selling this kid wayyyyy too short and I think it is entirely because
1. You are heavily over indexed on shooting
2. You under value our play making forwards

[yoyojw17]

I agree with this.

Black averaged 13.5 PPG, 4.0 APG as a high school senior and 12.8 PPG and 3.9 APG as a college freshman.

It stands to reason that there is NOT some big scorer or big assist guy who simply isn't getting an opportunity in there.

He's always been a complimentary kind of player, which is ultimately what he's very, very likely to end up being here.

And yes, I know they had a long winning streak this year with Black starting, but that's more outlier than reality.

It's incredibly difficult to have success offensively when one of your guards has a usage rate under 15%. It's basically 4 on 5.

What's the distribution of college players APG? I'll wait.

Times up. Among freshman players in 2023 that played more than 16.5 MPG, Anthony Black is in the:

75th percentile in usage rate
90th percentile in points per game
84th percentile in rebounds per game
97th percentile in assists per game
99th percentile in steals per game
85th percentile in blocks per game
95th percentile in free throw rate
95th percentile in offensive box score plus minus
97th percentile in defensive box score plus minus

You are selling this kid wayyyyy too short and I think it is entirely because
1. You are heavily over indexed on shooting
2. You under value our play making forwards

Looks like some reasons for going higher in the draft.... looking deeper than just the basic boxscore to make a determination.

And this was on a team that was struggling with help. Low usage is by plan... which greatly affects points and assist for a pg. we will see what he continues to develop into.

one breakout game and like usual.... outlook changes and the last few page become a thing of the past in many peoples eyes on this board. lol

[Skybox]

Who does Jalen Suggs for Jalen Green straight up? I know most of you will have a knee jerk no and I'm not sure I would do it either but it sure is a better fit for our roster where we are grooming Black to be our starting PG. I just don't see the long term fit with Suggs at the SG and Black as the PG. Green would bring that potential 3rd scoring threat we desperately need. Just spit balling.

why dont you see them being a long term fit?

That trade is an easy no for me. Suggs is the right fit at SG with Paolo and Franz, and a better fit for them than Green. The question is whether or not Black is the right fit, and whether he'll ever even be a starting PG. We need to find a way to get a starting PG immediately and let Black be the back up. In time, maybe Black can prove himself to be a starer.

I'm looking at it that I think Green will develop into an elite scorer and Black could make up for the lost defense with Suggs. I think we need 1 more elite offensive player and I don't see Suggs or Black ever developing into that. I can't argue that it may be Black we need to replace and not Suggs.

I agree with your reasoning but I'd be unwilling to trade Suggs straight up for Jalen Green. I think Suggs is way more valuable than Green, but maybe Suggs for Green and...Tari Eason or, maybe, Cam Whitmore.

I really like Suggs but I think we have to accept that Suggs/AB is a terrible pairing now and not likely to get a whole lot better. I just don't see AB as ever being a legit scorer, but he would pair well with an explosive scorer next to him. Suggs looks much better than AB, but I still don't think he has a high enough offensive ceiling to ever pair with a really limited offense PG. Both are exceptional scorers, AB is bigger and a superior ball handler...and there's some reason to project that AB will become more of a facilitator. I'm sort of resigned to the idea that at least one of them will come off the bench or be moved out. Moving Suggs makes some sense because he'd bring back a lot more, he's a couple of years closer to his extension, and AB is better on-ball. I'd say it'd be easier to find a high-scoring/3pt shooting SG than to find the same traits in a PG.

To be clear, I want to keep both - but you have to be realistic about their offensive ceilings...and, therefore, their compatibility.

[eyriq]

What's the distribution of college players APG? I'll wait.

Times up. Among freshman players in 2023 that played more than 16.5 MPG, Anthony Black is in the:

75th percentile in usage rate
90th percentile in points per game
84th percentile in rebounds per game
97th percentile in assists per game
99th percentile in steals per game
85th percentile in blocks per game
95th percentile in free throw rate
95th percentile in offensive box score plus minus
97th percentile in defensive box score plus minus

You are selling this kid wayyyyy too short and I think it is entirely because
1. You are heavily over indexed on shooting
2. You under value our play making forwards

Looks like some reasons for going higher in the draft.... looking deeper than just the basic boxscore to make a determination.

And this was on a team that was struggling with help. Low usage is by plan... which greatly affects points and assist for a pg. we will see what he continues to develop into.

one breakout game and like usual.... outlook changes and the last few page become a thing of the past in many peoples eyes on this board. lol

Yeah, the arguments against Black completely ignore that he's an elite PG prospect and was the best college freshman PG in the draft. But he doesn't shoot? Cry me a river. Even there he's improving by leaps and bounds. Bottom line is the kid is a stud prospect and our PG of the future and his ceiling is extremely high, we just need to play him.

[eyriq]

I ran updated NBA player similarity numbers for Black and they are interesting.

Alex Caruso 2018
Patrick McCaw 2018
Gary Payton 2007
Cory Joseph 2020
Earl Watson 2010
Dyson Daniels 2023
Fred Jones 2008
George Hill 2019
Spencer Dinwiddie 2017
Tomáš Satoranský 2019
Rodney McGruder 2019
Ron Harper 2001
Josh Richardson 2016
Dante Exum 2017
Brad Wanamaker 2020

Edit: Oh, and before you take these comps the wrong way, these are based on current playstyle and role. Gary Payton, Ron Harper, and George Hill were aging vets, Josh Richardson was a 22 year old rook, Caruso a 23 year old rook, Dinwiddie as 3 year junior, and most of the rest were veteran role players. Dyson Daniels was a 19 year old rook, so could be the best sort of parallel.

[Bensational]

Is Black's usage low mainly because of "fit" or because we have so many other scoring options as others have suggested on here? This implies that Black would be putting up way bigger numbers on another team.

Or is it low because the guy really cant shoot the ball and for a guard who is playing point and typically has the ball way above the three point line and trying to attack in a 24 second shot clock, this is way bigger problem.

I don't buy the argument that he has to sacrifice his offense when our team is 24th in offensive efficiency. It's not like we are holding back Tracy mcGrady here, who still got 15 a game playing next to Vince in Toronto.

I agree with this.

Black averaged 13.5 PPG, 4.0 APG as a high school senior and 12.8 PPG and 3.9 APG as a college freshman.

It stands to reason that there is NOT some big scorer or big assist guy who simply isn't getting an opportunity in there.

He's always been a complimentary kind of player, which is ultimately what he's very, very likely to end up being here.

And yes, I know they had a long winning streak this year with Black starting, but that's more outlier than reality.

It's incredibly difficult to have success offensively when one of your guards has a usage rate under 15%. It's basically 4 on 5.

Evaluating a team based on a guard's USG% is a flawed analysis. USG depends entirely on which roles are generating the offense, so if you've got Jokic and Murray dominating USG with MPJ and AG next in the pecking order for shots and touches, you're gonna end up with a guy like KCP who's USG% is only 12.8%.

We've got 55% USG tied up between Paolo and Franz as is, leaving 45% for the C and two guards. Split evenly that's only 15% each anyway. If Suggs/Wendell push up to 20% USG now you've only got 25% remaining for WCJ and Black. It's inevitable someone gets squeezed out of shots and touches, like all of these other playoff and championship caliber teams:

Boston - JRue 16.6%
GSW - Paul 14%
LAC - Mann 12.9%
Miami - Lowry 13% (before he was traded)
Milwaukee - Beasley 13.7%
Minnesota - Conley 14.4%
New York - OG 16.3%
New Orleans - Herb 14.8%
OKC - Dort 14.9%
Phoenix - Grayson Allen 13.6%

Even our boy Joe Ingles' best season by USG% was 17.5%, and he was still a core contributor to Utah's near-decade of prolonged success during his time there. A defensive version of Joe Ingles is a version of Black that I think is very achievable for him in time, and that is a player who will contribute to winning. It won't show up as inflated USG or boxscore busting stats, but it will show up in the W column.

[Residual-Heat]

Who does Jalen Suggs for Jalen Green straight up? I know most of you will have a knee jerk no and I'm not sure I would do it either but it sure is a better fit for our roster where we are grooming Black to be our starting PG. I just don't see the long term fit with Suggs at the SG and Black as the PG. Green would bring that potential 3rd scoring threat we desperately need. Just spit balling.

why dont you see them being a long term fit?

That trade is an easy no for me. Suggs is the right fit at SG with Paolo and Franz, and a better fit for them than Green. The question is whether or not Black is the right fit, and whether he'll ever even be a starting PG. We need to find a way to get a starting PG immediately and let Black be the back up. In time, maybe Black can prove himself to be a starer.

I'm looking at it that I think Green will develop into an elite scorer and Black could make up for the lost defense with Suggs. I think we need 1 more elite offensive player and I don't see Suggs or Black ever developing into that. I can't argue that it may be Black we need to replace and not Suggs.

Right now Im struggling with Green and believing he's going to be an elite scorer. I had higher hopes for him his rookie season, but he's just not progressing in any meaningful way, and he doesnt seem to have the mentality. He's a low IQ, one dimensional player who has struggled shooting the ball. I feel like the way his career is going right now, he's going to end up being a 6th man type. Best case scenario maybe Zach Lavine, but i dont really want to count on that and dont think the Magic should invest in his development.

[Knightro]

Evaluating a team based on a guard's USG% is a flawed analysis. USG depends entirely on which roles are generating the offense, so if you've got Jokic and Murray dominating USG with MPJ and AG next in the pecking order for shots and touches, you're gonna end up with a guy like KCP who's USG% is only 12.8%.

We've got 55% USG tied up between Paolo and Franz as is, leaving 45% for the C and two guards. Split evenly that's only 15% each anyway. If Suggs/Wendell push up to 20% USG now you've only got 25% remaining for WCJ and Black. It's inevitable someone gets squeezed out of shots and touches, like all of these other playoff and championship caliber teams:

Boston - JRue 16.6%
GSW - Paul 14%
LAC - Mann 12.9%
Miami - Lowry 13% (before he was traded)
Milwaukee - Beasley 13.7%
Minnesota - Conley 14.4%
New York - OG 16.3%
New Orleans - Herb 14.8%
OKC - Dort 14.9%
Phoenix - Grayson Allen 13.6%

Even our boy Joe Ingles' best season by USG% was 17.5%, and he was still a core contributor to Utah's near-decade of prolonged success during his time there. A defensive version of Joe Ingles is a version of Black that I think is very achievable for him in time, and that is a player who will contribute to winning. It won't show up as inflated USG or boxscore busting stats, but it will show up in the W column.

Couple things...

1. Black's usage (12.3%) is lower than literally every single player you listed. 539 players have used at least one possession in an NBA game this season. Black ranks 469th of those 539. Somebody like Jrue Holiday at 16.6% ranks 287th, nearly 200 spots higher. 16 or 17% would be more workable. 12% is just unacceptably low.

2. Basically every other guy you mentioned is elite at SOMETHING (most of them 3PT shooting) which is what's keeping them on the floor despite their low usage.

Grayson: 1st in NBA in 3PT%
Beasley: 6th in NBA in 3PT%
Jrue: 8th in NBA in 3PT% and plus defender
Conley: 9th in NBA in 3PT%
Dort: 40% from 3PT and plus defender
Herb Jones: 41.5% from 3PT and plus defender
OG: 37% from 3PT and arguably the best wing defender in the league

CP3: 8th in NBA in AST%

Black is good defender for a rookie and has the potential to be a very good one as he continues to develop.

But he's also a low volume 3PT shooter who's percentage isn't quite as impressive as it seems because he literally only shoots when he's truly wide open and basically everybody's percentage is good (or at least should be good) when they're only taking wide open shots. Black also barely dribbles and has shown little to no playmaking chops because he simply refuses to actually do anything with the ball.

[Knightro]

Times up. Among freshman players in 2023 that played more than 16.5 MPG, Anthony Black is in the:

75th percentile in usage rate
90th percentile in points per game
84th percentile in rebounds per game
97th percentile in assists per game
99th percentile in steals per game
85th percentile in blocks per game
95th percentile in free throw rate
95th percentile in offensive box score plus minus
97th percentile in defensive box score plus minus

You are selling this kid wayyyyy too short and I think it is entirely because
1. You are heavily over indexed on shooting
2. You under value our play making forwards

Don't make me have to do this. Don't make me be a bad guy

[eyriq]

Times up. Among freshman players in 2023 that played more than 16.5 MPG, Anthony Black is in the:

75th percentile in usage rate
90th percentile in points per game
84th percentile in rebounds per game
97th percentile in assists per game
99th percentile in steals per game
85th percentile in blocks per game
95th percentile in free throw rate
95th percentile in offensive box score plus minus
97th percentile in defensive box score plus minus

You are selling this kid wayyyyy too short and I think it is entirely because
1. You are heavily over indexed on shooting
2. You under value our play making forwards

Don't make me have to do this. Don't make me be a bad guy

I'm curious how you counter

[Bensational]

Couple things...

1. Black's usage (12.3%) is lower than literally every single player you listed. 539 players have used at least one possession in an NBA game this season. Black ranks 469th of those 539. Somebody like Jrue Holiday at 16.6% ranks 287th, nearly 200 spots higher. 16 or 17% would be more workable. 12% is just unacceptably low.

2. Basically every other guy you mentioned is elite at SOMETHING (most of them 3PT shooting) which is what's keeping them on the floor despite their low usage.

Grayson: 1st in NBA in 3PT%
Beasley: 6th in NBA in 3PT%
Jrue: 8th in NBA in 3PT% and plus defender
Conley: 9th in NBA in 3PT%
Dort: 40% from 3PT and plus defender
Herb Jones: 41.5% from 3PT and plus defender
OG: 37% from 3PT and arguably the best wing defender in the league

CP3: 8th in NBA in AST%

Black is good defender for a rookie and has the potential to be a very good one as he continues to develop.

But he's also a low volume 3PT shooter who's percentage isn't quite as impressive as it seems because he literally only shoots when he's truly wide open and basically everybody's percentage is good (or at least should be good) when they're only taking wide open shots. Black also barely dribbles and has shown little to no playmaking chops because he simply refuses to actually do anything with the ball.

I mean, he is a 19 year old rookie on a team fresh out of bottom feeding vs long time veterans on teams built to compete for the championship this season, right? Those guys have had time to develop their efficiencies, so you've gotta allow time for Black to settle into his game, and probably allow a little extra time since he's also sharing Point development with Paolo and Franz. We can feel good knowing he's already a better shooter at 19 than Herb was at 23, both in volume and efficiency, so that's a healthy floor.

I'm not going to disagree that he is a reluctant offensive player right now, which I feel is equal parts his nature and the stakes of suddenly being a winning team. If anyone is expecting him to become a takeover guy, I'd give up on those dreams now because it doesn't seem to be who he is. I think next season he'll both feel and be more empowered to attempt more within the offense.

Ultimately, basic math can explain why some guys end up with lower USG %'s. Paolo 29.9%, Franz 25.5%, Suggs 19.6% = 74.5% leaving only 25% for Black + C. If that C is WCJ @ 16.8% then only 8.5% remains for Black. With Goga in instead of WCJ, him and Black split the remaining USG evenly at like 12.5-ish % But realistically, who do you want Black taking shots instead of with 3-4 of those guys currently being stronger/more reliable options?

[Knightro]

What's the distribution of college players APG? I'll wait.

Assists per game is not the right metric to look because some guys play heavier minute loads than others and some guys play on teams who play much faster or much slower than others.

Anthony Black's Arkansas team ranked 23rd out of 358 Division 1 NCAA teams in pace last season.

On top of that, Black played 34.9 MPG, which was significantly more than other guard prospects. Keyonte George played 28.6 MPG on 138th team in pace, while Cason Wallace played 32.2 MPG on 104th team in pace for example.

So Black had *significantly* more opportunities for assists than many of his peers. And ultimately his APG figure is not actually as impressive as it seems and that is reflected in his low AST% and low AST/100.

Here's are the freshman college point guard drafted in the top 10 since 2011 (when Basketball Reference started tracking per 100 possession stats). I eliminated Darius Garland because he only played 5 games before getting hurt for the season.

Kyrie Irving: 4.3 APG, 29.8 AST%, 8.8 AST/100
Brandon Knight: 4.2 APG, 23.4 AST%, 7.1 AST/100
D'Angelo Russell: 5.0 APG, 30.1 AST%, 8.9 AST/100
Ben Simmons: 4.8 APG, 27.4 AST%, 7.5 AST/100
Jamal Murray: 2.2 APG, 12.1 AST%, 3.7 AST/100
Markelle Fultz: 5.9 APG, 35.5 AST%, 9.1 AST/100
Lonzo Ball: 7.6 APG, 31.4 AST%, 11.7 AST/100
De'Aaron Fox: 4.6 APG, 28.6 AST%, 8.3 AST/100
Dennis Smith Jr: 6.2 APG, 34.2 AST%, 9.8 AST/100
Trae Young: 8.7 APG, 48.6 AST%, 12.9 AST/100
Coby White: 4.1 APG, 24.4 AST%, 7.5 AST/100
Cason Wallace: 4.3 APG, 24.2 AST%, 7.9 AST/100
Anthony Black: 3.9 APG, 20.6 AST%, 6.4 AST/100

LaMelo Ball and Josh Giddey didn't play college ball, but their passing stats were way better as well.

So like... as you can clearly see Black did not really show the profile of a high end playmaking guard prospect compared to other players with his experience level drafted in his range.

[Knightro]

I mean, he is a 19 year old rookie on a team fresh out of bottom feeding vs long time veterans on teams built to compete for the championship this season, right? Those guys have had time to develop their efficiencies, so you've gotta allow time for Black to settle into his game, and probably allow a little extra time since he's also sharing Point development with Paolo and Franz. We can feel good knowing he's already a better shooter at 19 than Herb was at 23, both in volume and efficiency, so that's a healthy floor.

I'm not going to disagree that he is a reluctant offensive player right now, which I feel is equal parts his nature and the stakes of suddenly being a winning team. If anyone is expecting him to become a takeover guy, I'd give up on those dreams now because it doesn't seem to be who he is. I think next season he'll both feel and be more empowered to attempt more within the offense.

Ultimately, basic math can explain why some guys end up with lower USG %'s. Paolo 29.9%, Franz 25.5%, Suggs 19.6% = 74.5% leaving only 25% for Black + C. If that C is WCJ @ 16.8% then only 8.5% remains for Black. With Goga in instead of WCJ, him and Black split the remaining USG evenly at like 12.5-ish % But realistically, who do you want Black taking shots instead of with 3-4 of those guys currently being stronger/more reliable options?

"Take everyone's USG% and have it add up to 100%" is not how it works. Players don't play all 48 minutes. Nor does every player play 100% of their minutes with specific teammates.

[Bensational]

"Take everyone's USG% and have it add up to 100%" is not how it works. Players don't play all 48 minutes. Nor does every player play 100% of their minutes with specific teammates.

Not with precision, but it gives a pretty solid indication in this instance since they’re the actual lineups Black has primarily played in. And it holds as a representation of distribution.

Ultimately, contrary to your original point that it’s hard to be a successful offense with a low USG guard, I think with the examples shown in mind, having a low USG guard on a successful team is a sign of a team with well defined roles and likely strong chemistry. And we’ve already seen AB participate in that this season as a rookie. That’s definitely something to continue developing and build with.

[Knightro]

Ultimately, contrary to your original point that it’s hard to be a successful offense with a low USG guard, I think with the examples shown in mind, having a low USG guard on a successful team is a sign of a team with well defined roles and likely strong chemistry. And we’ve already seen AB participate in that this season as a rookie. That’s definitely something to continue developing and build with.

Every single example you mentioned (outside of Mann), the low usage player in question was extremely efficient offensively, typically a sniper from the 3PT line, and still higher volume shooters than Black.

Right now, and obviously he's going to keep developing, but right now Black is a low volume, middling efficiency 3&D player and that's it.

If the goal ultimately was to just let Paolo and Franz be the defacto point guards and the guards would be more 3&D catch-and-shoot/spot shooter types, wouldn't it have made more sense to pick somebody who could actually shoot at a high level?

[Bensational]

But TBF I don’t think we disagree on our assessments of what Black currently is and what he needs to do to improve. I’m impressed he’s managed to limit his rookie mistakes as much as he has, you’re unimpressed by his reluctance to do anything and risk making a mistake. Fair.

[Bensational]

If the goal ultimately was to just let Paolo and Franz be the defacto point guards and the guards would be more 3&D catch-and-shoot/spot shooter types, wouldn't it have made more sense to pick somebody who could actually shoot at a high level?

They did in Howard. But at 6, I think most people still take the gamble on a 6’7 athletic kid who can defend 1-4 who has played PG up til that point, right? It’s not like Grady or Hawkins have left us filled with regret so far and they were the best shooters of the draft.