Official Summer 2024 Magic Free Agency and Trade Ideas Thread 3.0

[Knightro]

But TBF I don’t think we disagree on our assessments of what Black currently is and what he needs to do to improve. I’m impressed he’s managed to limit his rookie mistakes as much as he has, you’re unimpressed by his reluctance to do anything and risk making a mistake. Fair.

I like Anthony! I genuinely do like him.

I just don't think he's shown literally anything (thus far) that would make me believe he's ready to actually be an NBA point guard.

He truly does nothing on offense except stand still and wait to get a pass for a catch and shoot, which he only takes if there's literally no one around him.

I think that over time he could develop into a great connector piece, but his presence absolutely would not keep me from bringing in a real point guard.

[eyriq]

What's the distribution of college players APG? I'll wait.

Assists per game is not the right metric to look because some guys play heavier minute loads than others and some guys play on teams who play much faster or much slower than others.

Anthony Black's Arkansas team ranked 23rd out of 358 Division 1 NCAA teams in pace last season.

On top of that, Black played 34.9 MPG, which was significantly more than other guard prospects. Keyonte George played 28.6 MPG on 138th team in pace, while Cason Wallace played 32.2 MPG on 104th team in pace for example.

So Black had *significantly* more opportunities for assists than many of his peers. And ultimately his APG figure is not actually as impressive as it seems and that is reflected in his low AST% and low AST/100.

Here's are the freshman college point guard drafted in the top 10 since 2011 (when Basketball Reference started tracking per 100 possession stats). I eliminated Darius Garland because he only played 5 games before getting hurt for the season.

Kyrie Irving: 4.3 APG, 29.8 AST%, 8.8 AST/100
Brandon Knight: 4.2 APG, 23.4 AST%, 7.1 AST/100
D'Angelo Russell: 5.0 APG, 30.1 AST%, 8.9 AST/100
Ben Simmons: 4.8 APG, 27.4 AST%, 7.5 AST/100
Jamal Murray: 2.2 APG, 12.1 AST%, 3.7 AST/100
Markelle Fultz: 5.9 APG, 35.5 AST%, 9.1 AST/100
Lonzo Ball: 7.6 APG, 31.4 AST%, 11.7 AST/100
De'Aaron Fox: 4.6 APG, 28.6 AST%, 8.3 AST/100
Dennis Smith Jr: 6.2 APG, 34.2 AST%, 9.8 AST/100
Trae Young: 8.7 APG, 48.6 AST%, 12.9 AST/100
Coby White: 4.1 APG, 24.4 AST%, 7.5 AST/100
Cason Wallace: 4.3 APG, 24.2 AST%, 7.9 AST/100
Anthony Black: 3.9 APG, 20.6 AST%, 6.4 AST/100

LaMelo Ball and Josh Giddey didn't play college ball, but their passing stats were way better as well.

So like... as you can clearly see Black did not really show the profile of a high end playmaking guard prospect compared to other players with his experience level drafted in his range.

That's good evidence to use to argue that his upside isn't focused on being a primary playmaker. It's not evidence against his playmaking potential. Playmaking potential is there. He was the best NCAA PG prospect for a lot of things outside of his playmaking, but playmaking was there among the reasons to select him.

Because of his excellence on the defensive end and upside on offense with his free throw rate and playmaking, he's going to help with winning now and grow into a larger role over time. He's a clear favorite for the starting PG role IMO.

Edit: but that was a great response, really interesting to see how weak AB is as a playmaker in terms of carrying an offense vs other A+ playmakers. If you think that's a feature we need in our PG I guess I understand not trusting AB to develop into it, it's not likely to happen. If instead you are good with a connector piece and secondary playmaker than AB is perfect.

[Knightro]

That's good evidence to use to argue that his upside isn't focused on being a primary playmaker. It's not evidence against his playmaking potential. Playmaking potential is there. He was the best NCAA PG prospect for a lot of things outside of his playmaking, but playmaking was there among the reasons to select him.

Because of his excellence on the defensive end and upside on offense with his free throw rate and playmaking, he's going to help with winning now and grow into a larger role over time. He's a clear favorite for the starting PG role IMO.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here

What playmaking are you talking about exactly? Because there's been practically none this season.

Black has 81 assists for the season in 952 minutes.

Fultz, who everyone thinks is terrible, has 77 assists in just 504 minutes and he's played with the same heavy usage forwards (and a heavier USG% center compared to Black who got a lot of his minutes with vulture Goga taking up minimal possessions) that Black has played with.

Black barely dribbles the ball man. I know you watch the games. I don't understand how you can watch him stand in the corner doing nothing on offense and NOT want to pursue an actual point guard.

[Knightro]

I've seen some people, my dear friend SOUL among them, suggest something along the lines of "oh well the Magic can't afford to give Anthony Black developmental on ball reps because those reps would very likely be very ugly because he's raw and they're trying to win games" - and I don't even disagree with that!

But my response is... what the heck do you think the Magic's goals are going to be NEXT season?

If they can't afford to let this guy learn on the job this year, they certainly won't be able do it next year when the expectation level is going to take another step forward.

So we're putting an unbelievable amount of faith in this guy learning how to play NBA point guard without actually getting NBA point guard reps.

And again, if the desired goal all along was "Paolo and Franz are the point guards and everyone around them needs to be a shooter/defender" wouldn't it have made more sense to actually draft a better shooter?

[zaymon]

I think the strategy is playing Black more minutes next season, but coming from the bench. We all will be very dissapointed if we dont get a better pg in the offseason i think we can agree on that.

[eyriq]

We all will be very dissapointed if we dont get a better pg in the offseason i think we can agree on that.

I may be on an island but I'll be disappointed if we bring in a better PG. AB is good enough to start already and has a very high upside.

[Bensational]

But TBF I don’t think we disagree on our assessments of what Black currently is and what he needs to do to improve. I’m impressed he’s managed to limit his rookie mistakes as much as he has, you’re unimpressed by his reluctance to do anything and risk making a mistake. Fair.

I like Anthony! I genuinely do like him.

I just don't think he's shown literally anything (thus far) that would make me believe he's ready to actually be an NBA point guard.

He truly does nothing on offense except stand still and wait to get a pass for a catch and shoot, which he only takes if there's literally no one around him.

I think that over time he could develop into a great connector piece, but his presence absolutely would not keep me from bringing in a real point guard.

To be fair to Black, we’ve only seen him playing PG a handful of times in garbage minutes because that’s the only unit he prepped with in that role, and you see him actually orchestrate the offense a bit more. I think he has a more capable PnR game with Goga than we ever see out of him. But he plays timid alongside Paolo for now, so we don’t see that. But he’ll grow out of it.

He’s probably better served getting some reps in off the bench for a season or two so I wouldn’t mind if we brought in a veteran PG in the interim, but I’d want Black to be one of the first off the bench. (OT, I’m not convinced Paolo will respond well to a veteran PG at first)

[zaymon]

We all will be very dissapointed if we dont get a better pg in the offseason i think we can agree on that.

I may be on an island but I'll be disappointed if we bring in a better PG. AB is good enough to start already and has a very high upside.

Winning streak was great but lets not mistake the forest for the trees. No team can survive with that little offense from the backcourt. Suggs and Black shot it well this season but i am not sure even this efficiency is sustainable and we need a lot more, especially if we change our starting center.
I am so dissapointed in WCJ. Guy forgot how to defend and gets outrebounded by teenagers. As bad as he plays lately, we need space he creates by shooting 3s.

[Skybox]

I think we’re all seeing what we need to see from AB to support our takes. I see no assists, hand the ball (like a hot potato) to Paolo, Franz, Ingles as quickly as possible and go stand in the corner. Very impactful on-ball defense. Shoot if no one is within 10 feet with a slow windup set shot. We need a PG or a guard that can spread the floor or, preferably, both…if he becomes that, it would be more than just steady evolution. It would be a complete change of character. His capable but not noteworthy ball handling and positional size makes him an unusual player to be deployed. But he’s more Matisse Thybulle than Lonzo Ball - for now, at least.

[BadMofoPimp]

I've seen some people, my dear friend SOUL among them, suggest something along the lines of "oh well the Magic can't afford to give Anthony Black developmental on ball reps because those reps would very likely be very ugly because he's raw and they're trying to win games" - and I don't even disagree with that!

But my response is... what the heck do you think the Magic's goals are going to be NEXT season?

If they can't afford to let this guy learn on the job this year, they certainly won't be able do it next year when the expectation level is going to take another step forward.

So we're putting an unbelievable amount of faith in this guy learning how to play NBA point guard without actually getting NBA point guard reps.

And again, if the desired goal all along was "Paolo and Franz are the point guards and everyone around them needs to be a shooter/defender" wouldn't it have made more sense to actually draft a better shooter?

Maybe Black needs to spend a week or two in the G-League and spend all that time dribbling, passing and shooting 3's in game situations regardless of how bad it looks til he can do them better.

[tiderulz]

I think the strategy is playing Black more minutes next season, but coming from the bench. We all will be very dissapointed if we dont get a better pg in the offseason i think we can agree on that.

imagine using the #6 pick on a player and the goal was to have him come off the bench in his 2nd year. i think we would call it a disappointment if that was another team.

[tiderulz]

We all will be very dissapointed if we dont get a better pg in the offseason i think we can agree on that.

I may be on an island but I'll be disappointed if we bring in a better PG. AB is good enough to start already and has a very high upside.

sorry, not on that island with you. i dont believe he is good enough to start as our PG. and not really seeing the upside. i hope he makes strides in the offseason and prove me wrong, i really do. but i dont think his style (defense first, poor outside shooting, average passer) is what we need right now

[Skybox]

We all will be very dissapointed if we dont get a better pg in the offseason i think we can agree on that.

I may be on an island but I'll be disappointed if we bring in a better PG. AB is good enough to start already and has a very high upside.

sorry, not on that island with you. i dont believe he is good enough to start as our PG. and not really seeing the upside. i hope he makes strides in the offseason and prove me wrong, i really do. but i dont think his style (defense first, poor outside shooting, average passer) is what we need right now

Have to agree…I think he makes for a really interesting bench rotation guy, sort of like Isaac - in that Mosely can sic him on an opposing scorer as needed and provide a bit of opportunistic offense as he develops his passing, cutting etc…most defensive specialists can’t handle the ball- that makes him a pretty unique player. He could be paired with all different types and sizes…as long as they can shoot & score some.

I’d call him a “2 timeline” guy that may have a larger role someday but can contribute in specific limited ways now. But we don’t have seasons to waste “developing” him as a PG, when he’s so far from ready for that role. Bring in a vet to start but use AB in whatever ways he is currently capable of.

[eyriq]

I may be on an island but I'll be disappointed if we bring in a better PG. AB is good enough to start already and has a very high upside.

sorry, not on that island with you. i dont believe he is good enough to start as our PG. and not really seeing the upside. i hope he makes strides in the offseason and prove me wrong, i really do. but i dont think his style (defense first, poor outside shooting, average passer) is what we need right now

Have to agree…I think he makes for a really interesting bench rotation guy, sort of like Isaac - in that Mosely can sic him on an opposing scorer as needed and provide a bit of opportunistic offense as he develops his passing, cutting etc…most defensive specialists can’t handle the ball- that makes him a pretty unique player. He could be paired with all different types and sizes…as long as they can shoot & score some.

I’d call him a “2 timeline” guy that may have a larger role someday but can contribute in specific limited ways now. But we don’t have seasons to waste “developing” him as a PG, when he’s so far from ready for that role. Bring in a vet to start but use AB in whatever ways he is currently capable of.

Gotta believe in the kid.

Read on Twitter

?t=1Gmw2OgEou71dxs-XFOLdQ&s=19

[Black and Blue]

I think we’re all seeing what we need to see from AB to support our takes. I see no assists, hand the ball (like a hot potato) to Paolo, Franz, Ingles as quickly as possible and go stand in the corner. Very impactful on-ball defense. Shoot if no one is within 10 feet with a slow windup set shot. We need a PG or a guard that can spread the floor or, preferably, both…if he becomes that, it would be more than just steady evolution. It would be a complete change of character. His capable but not noteworthy ball handling and positional size makes him an unusual player to be deployed. But he’s more Matisse Thybulle than Lonzo Ball - for now, at least.

I completely agree with you. What worries me is the potential Magic narrative “But we are winning with Anthony Black”.

Look at the Magic roster decisions and their draft strategy. I seriously think Mose and the FO believe they can simply win with length, an elite defense and two stars. While we see the holes (and opposing teams do too), the Magic are climbing up the standings and there is a decent chance they end the season in a much better spot than they are even now.

Sometimes winning can make you think you are set and don’t need to do as much as you previously thought. Heaven help us if that means overpaying to resign Fultz to be a 1-2 year transitional piece for Black to grow into something he may ultimately never be.

Okay before you think I’m all doom and gloom by saying this, here is the happy part: We already won. This team will at least be in the play in, our stars have blossomed, and we have an insanely clear picture of who each player is (though I’m still convinced Suggs can take even another step offensively). If we get mega blown out in the playoffs, which is a possibility given our reliance on Paolo alone most games, it will help the team truly assess the roster. It’s all gravy at this point looking at the future. Either we win in the playoffs or the team learns why they didn’t win. Literally the only thing that would upset the process right now is if one of Paolo or Franz were to get injured for the playoffs, which would throw off the assessment process.

[flying_mollusk]

rookie AB

Usage%-12.2
TS%-57
Team wins (projected 44-47)

Rookie Andre Iguodala

Usage-12.8
TS%-58
Team wins- 43

Rookie Jonathan Issac

Usage%-15
TS%-46.5
Team wins-25

To me this says defensive guys can get better and be contributors on offense without high usage.

[pepe1991]

You will go nowhere if you compare stats from players that played (as rookies) 20 yeras go.

Back in 2004 nba teams averaged hardly 90 points a game. Now teams put 20 ppg more. eFG% went up by 7% and pace went up by 10.

Igoudala with 9 ppg was 104th best scorer.
Now 104th best scorer averages 13 ppg.

[Skybox]

I think we’re all seeing what we need to see from AB to support our takes. I see no assists, hand the ball (like a hot potato) to Paolo, Franz, Ingles as quickly as possible and go stand in the corner. Very impactful on-ball defense. Shoot if no one is within 10 feet with a slow windup set shot. We need a PG or a guard that can spread the floor or, preferably, both…if he becomes that, it would be more than just steady evolution. It would be a complete change of character. His capable but not noteworthy ball handling and positional size makes him an unusual player to be deployed. But he’s more Matisse Thybulle than Lonzo Ball - for now, at least.

I completely agree with you. What worries me is the potential Magic narrative “But we are winning with Anthony Black”.

Look at the Magic roster decisions and their draft strategy. I seriously think Mose and the FO believe they can simply win with length, an elite defense and two stars. While we see the holes (and opposing teams do too), the Magic are climbing up the standings and there is a decent chance they end the season in a much better spot than they are even now.

Sometimes winning can make you think you are set and don’t need to do as much as you previously thought. Heaven help us if that means overpaying to resign Fultz to be a 1-2 year transitional piece for Black to grow into something he may ultimately never be.

Okay before you think I’m all doom and gloom by saying this, here is the happy part: We already won. This team will at least be in the play in, our stars have blossomed, and we have an insanely clear picture of who each player is (though I’m still convinced Suggs can take even another step offensively). If we get mega blown out in the playoffs, which is a possibility given our reliance on Paolo alone most games, it will help the team truly assess the roster. It’s all gravy at this point looking at the future. Either we win in the playoffs or the team learns why they didn’t win. Literally the only thing that would upset the process right now is if one of Paolo or Franz were to get injured for the playoffs, which would throw off the assessment process.

Hater. Crybaby

Here's my bigger issue..."Win or Learn" is a great concept...but it's the FO that has to learn what we are lacking and that it's on them to go get it for Paolo (who's separating from Franz as far as Alpha -which seems right - Franz is awesome 3rd Chair), moreso than a player who isn't offensively-minded simply flipping a switch within himself. If Suggs or Black or whoever suddenly became great offensive players...all the better. The best teams in the league are generally 5 deep with guys that can, at least occasionally, go for 20+, when needed.

[Knightro]

Gotta believe in the kid.

Read on Twitter

?t=1Gmw2OgEou71dxs-XFOLdQ&s=19

That tweet is hilariously disingenuous.

I love how he didn't show or discuss all Black's other 3PT attempts from last night that weren't with 1 on the shot clock. Because every one of those was the same catapult slingshot set shot that he always shoots.

[eyriq]

Gotta believe in the kid.

Read on Twitter

?t=1Gmw2OgEou71dxs-XFOLdQ&s=19

That tweet is hilariously disingenuous.

I love how he didn't show or discuss all Black's other 3PT attempts from last night that weren't with 1 on the shot clock. Because every one of those was the same catapult slingshot set shot that he always shoots.

I see AB is going to get the Fultz treatment from you. "I actually like him, I really do, BUT..." LOLZ