luciano-davidwesley wrote:It has been shown time and time again analysts and scouts vastly overrate measurables and athleticism and vastly underrate basketball IQ, intangibles and feel for the game when assessing players.
That's why you see college bench sophomores that don't produce anything even at NCAA level regularly get drafted in the lottery and bust. Meanwhile guys that can't jump out of the gym and don't have plus hand width/wing span measurements but actually know how to play the game at a high level (Brunson, Jokic) get drafted in the second round and go on to be great players.
zeebneeb wrote:Jokic(besides many others)is the exact reason why scouts should have "game feel" "bball IQ" "Court awareness", whatever you want to call it, at the top of their list.
Not athleticism. When you get both combined you get players like LeBron/Kobe/MJ/KD, but it has become painfully obvious, that "bball IQ" should be A#1 when drafting.
I would bet that the success rate on raw prospects with top percentile physical attributes is higher than the success rate on high IQ guys without the physical gifts. The reason you can name Jokic and Brunson in the second archetype is because they are outliers. Raw top percentile athletes who become good NBA players are much more prevalent. The league has been getting taller, faster, and bigger and it's coinciding with the highest talent level we've ever seen in the sport. This isn't an accident.
Given this, we draft a lot more of the raw athletes and a lot less of the "plays the right way" guys. So of course there will be more busts amongst the first group and studies erroneously attribute that to the ability of scouts and analysts. If you took the top 50 athletes and the top 50 "IQ" guys every year, I'd bet you the athletes perform better over the long term.