NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[Crunch 99]

What Luka is doing is crazy, he is the only one who can upset Jokic for MVP, it is just remarkable what he can do.

Well I think he can forget about MVP at least for this season, his team on a two losing streak games while both Nuggets and OKC continue to win.

Yes, Strus' 59' buzzer beater very likely put a fork in Luka's MVP chances. Before that, it seemed feasible that the Mavs were going to go on a dominant run to finish out the season. At this point, just getting to sixth place would be a good accomplishment that still leaves them with potential to do something in the playoffs.

If Exum comes back healthy and gets anywhere close to his stellar level of play in December, where he was providing excellent defense on the perimeter, scoring efficiently and providing some assists, it would help the Mavs out a lot.

[The-Power]

Go back into my posting in this very thread and you'll see my opinion of Jokic, don't put up strawmen.
The reason Mavs are 8th are injuries, Mavs are the 3rd most injured team in the league after Grizzlies and Hornets, Kyrie has missed 23 games, Maxi 30+ and many other injuries, Mavs would be with the top 4 seeds if they were healthy.

It's easy to say but there's no way of knowing. Indeed, there are good arguments that this wouldn't be the case.

Dallas win% overall is 57%.
Dallas win% in games in which Kyrie played is 61%.
Dallas win% in games in which Kleber played is 55%.

The 4th overall seed in the West has a win% of 66%.

Last year in the 20 games Kyrie played they won 40% of their games and the record was even worse in games in which both Kyrie and Luka played (you can even add Kleber as well here). There hasn't been a season during Luka's tenure with the Mavs in which they won two-thirds of their games (they got close to that mark once).

So while you may believe that the Mavs would be a top 4 seed this year if not for excessive injuries – which nobody can disprove –, you should be aware that this belief isn't necessarily supported by the evidence we do have available. I'd even argue that your argument is the weaker one compared to its alternative.

[Wolfgang630]

Luka has a locked in Kyrie and pieces and he is in 8th.

Luka has a chance if he moves up the rankings but he can’t win from 8th the year after missing the play in just last year when Jokic got snubbed for mvp last year and then went on to win the ring and is in 3rd this year and primed to make another title run.

Like how do you look at Luka vs Jokic and say Luka is having a better year than Jokic…?

Jokic is the MVP so far

Go back into my posting in this very thread and you'll see my opinion of Jokic, don't put up strawmen.
The reason Mavs are 8th are injuries, Mavs are the 3rd most injured team in the league after Grizzlies and Hornets, Kyrie has missed 23 games, Maxi 30+ and many other injuries, Mavs would be with the top 4 seeds if they were healthy.

You know what you sign up for when you get Kyrie. I don’t want to hear about him missing games.

[Infinite Llamas]

This Luka season reminds me of the season Jokic won MVP when MPJ and Murray were both out. Granted, Dallas is a better version of that team, but the injuries and inconsistencies of the lineups has made it tumultuous. And while I don’t think that Luka has the impact that Jokic was, it’s hard to fairly judge this Dallas team because of said inconsistencies.

[Mavrelous]

Go back into my posting in this very thread and you'll see my opinion of Jokic, don't put up strawmen.
The reason Mavs are 8th are injuries, Mavs are the 3rd most injured team in the league after Grizzlies and Hornets, Kyrie has missed 23 games, Maxi 30+ and many other injuries, Mavs would be with the top 4 seeds if they were healthy.

It's easy to say but there's no way of knowing. Indeed, there are good arguments that this wouldn't be the case.

Dallas win% overall is 57%.
Dallas win% in games in which Kyrie played is 61%.
Dallas win% in games in which Kleber played is 55%.

The 4th overall seed in the West has a win% of 66%.

Last year in the 20 games Kyrie played they won 40% of their games and the record was even worse in games in which both Kyrie and Luka played (you can even add Kleber as well here). There hasn't been a season during Luka's tenure with the Mavs in which they won two-thirds of their games (they got close to that mark once).

So while you may believe that the Mavs would be a top 4 seed this year if not for excessive injuries – which nobody can disprove –, you should be aware that this belief isn't necessarily supported by the evidence we do have available. I'd even argue that your argument is the weaker one compared to its alternative.

Mavs were 3rd in the west when Kyrie went down...
There were more injuries, Lively missed 18 games, Exum has missed many games, and many of them when Kyrie was also down, leaving Luka as the only PG on the team, Josh Green missed a month, I just didn't mention every one of them.
Kyrie (23)
Green (14)/Exum(27)
Lively (18)/Maxi(26)
are main rotation players, 3 starters, which star had to deal with this many injuries and still maintain 66% success rate?

[Ron Swanson]

I'm not gonna say it'd be an Embiid over Jokic type robbery, but SGA not winning it because of the "best player in the world" moniker tilting MVP in Jokic's favor just feels wrong. When the individual box, lineup, and advanced metrics are this close, then leading your team to a better record has to matter at some point. It's absurd the kind of ceiling raising he's doing right now with such a young team (8.21 SRS, Top-5 in both offense and defense, +12.1 net-rating with him on the court, +11.5 on/off). He deserves it.

[The-Power]

Mavs were 3rd in the west when Kyrie went down...

Small sample (that by the way also includes going 3-1 in games Kyrie missed during that stretch) and the win% was still below 66%. So not only would you have to assume that the winning percentage for this small sample was sustainable, but that it would actually improve.

There were more injuries, Lively missed 18 games, Exum has missed many games, and many of them when Kyrie was also down, leaving Luka as the only PG on the team, Josh Green missed a month, I just didn't mention every one of them.

I am aware that more players missed games. It's still a stretch to simply assume that the Mavs would be top 4 in the West. There really isn't much to back that claim up. Merely listing injuries doesn't do that.

which star had to deal with this many injuries and still maintain 66% success rate?

I never said that it was my expectation for Luka to have a 66% win percentage considering the injuries. I simply stated that we cannot just assume that he would have had that win percentage without injuries. That's a very different conversation.

[The-Power]

It's absurd the kind of ceiling raising he's doing right now with such a young team (8.21 SRS, Top-5 in both offense and defense, +12.1 net-rating with him on the court, +11.5 on/off). He deserves it.

But you can say the same about Jokic. +10.0 net rating, +18.5 on/off – and in the end, OKC is only two games ahead of Denver in the standings. We can slice it every way we want: currently we have two very worthy MVP candidates and there are good arguments for either of them. We'll have to wait and see if something changes over the last stretch of the season but both choices would be perfectly reasonable as far as I'm concerned.

[Mavrelous]

Mavs were 3rd in the west when Kyrie went down...

Small sample (that by the way also includes going 3-1 in games Kyrie missed during that stretch) and the win% was still below 66%. So not only would you have to assume that the winning percentage for this small sample was sustainable, but that it would actually improve.

There were more injuries, Lively missed 18 games, Exum has missed many games, and many of them when Kyrie was also down, leaving Luka as the only PG on the team, Josh Green missed a month, I just didn't mention every one of them.

I am aware that more players missed games. It's still a stretch to simply assume that the Mavs would be top 4 in the West. There really isn't much to back that claim up. Merely listing injuries doesn't do that.

which star had to deal with this many injuries and still maintain 66% success rate?

I never said that it was my expectation for Luka to have a 66% win percentage considering the injuries. I simply stated that we cannot just assume that he would have had that win percentage without injuries. That's a very different conversation.

They were 3rd when he went down, w/o including the wining stretch after it.
Of course we can assume it,a team with 57 winning percentage can be 66 winning percentage had the co-star not missed 23 games and top 7 rotation players not missed 70+ games combined, we can't do what if scenarios with 100% proof, but we make reasonable assumptions.

[Exp0sed]

Go back into my posting in this very thread and you'll see my opinion of Jokic, don't put up strawmen.
The reason Mavs are 8th are injuries, Mavs are the 3rd most injured team in the league after Grizzlies and Hornets, Kyrie has missed 23 games, Maxi 30+ and many other injuries, Mavs would be with the top 4 seeds if they were healthy.

It's easy to say but there's no way of knowing. Indeed, there are good arguments that this wouldn't be the case.

Dallas win% overall is 57%.
Dallas win% in games in which Kyrie played is 61%.
Dallas win% in games in which Kleber played is 55%.

The 4th overall seed in the West has a win% of 66%.

Last year in the 20 games Kyrie played they won 40% of their games and the record was even worse in games in which both Kyrie and Luka played (you can even add Kleber as well here). There hasn't been a season during Luka's tenure with the Mavs in which they won two-thirds of their games (they got close to that mark once).

So while you may believe that the Mavs would be a top 4 seed this year if not for excessive injuries – which nobody can disprove –, you should be aware that this belief isn't necessarily supported by the evidence we do have available. I'd even argue that your argument is the weaker one compared to its alternative.

that's all well and good but the counter-argument would be - this Mavs supporting cast is superior to all of Luka's prior rosters
Luka\Kyrie\Green\PJ\Gafford\Exum\Kleber\THJ\DDJ\Lively, not in this order nessescarily but as a 10 man rotation, it's clearly better imo than the teams Luka couldn't carry to say a 66% winrate

meaning - just because past Luka teams weren't on pace to be at that level, does not mean it also applies to this particular team. this is the first time Luka has a genuine co-star and actual NBA rotation players at every position and on the bench

I think this is def a 54 wins team if fully healthy. obviously Kyrie isn't that durable and Luka himself usually misses some game and others like Exum or Kleber are quite injury prone themselves but on a theorethical level that's def a 54 win (66%) team imo

obviously Luka isn't winning from an 8th seed with multiple other players playing at the same level and arguably better while also playing more games and leading their teams to more wins

but i really think if the Mavs had this squad and had been relatively healthy for an entire season - they'd be in the mix for the top of West

[The-Power]

Of course we can assume it,a team with 57 winning percentage can be 66 winning percentage had the co-star not missed 23 games and top 7 rotation players not missed 70+ games combined, we can't do what if scenarios with 100% proof, but we make reasonable assumptions.

You're free to assume what you want but I backed up by actual data that the required winning percentage should not be assumed because Luka and Irving have simply never produced that in Dallas even when both were available. I'd say the reasonable assumption would be to say that even assuming better health Dallas was at no point a shoe-in to win two-thirds of their games (as you made it out to be) but let's just agree to disagree and move on. I just hope we can agree that hypothetical ‘what-if’ records should have no bearing on Luka's MVP candidacy.

[The-Power]

that's all well and good but the counter-argument would be - this Mavs supporting cast is superior to all of Luka's prior rosters
Luka\Kyrie\Green\PJ\Gafford\Exum\Kleber\THJ\DDJ\Lively, not in this order nessescarily but as a 10 man rotation, it's clearly better imo than the teams Luka couldn't carry to say a 66% winrate

meaning - just because past Luka teams weren't on pace to be at that level, does not mean it also applies to this particular team. this is the first time Luka has a genuine co-star and actual NBA rotation players at every position and on the bench

I mean, it's certainly possible that this team is better than all the ones Luka had before (certainly looks better on paper) and perhaps they prove to be a 66% win team going forward. But let's acknowledge that the team you listed – including Washington and Gafford – was not the team that was assembled for most of the season. So we cannot retroactively assume a better record for the season based on moves that were made only very recently.

[Woodsanity]

I'm not gonna say it'd be an Embiid over Jokic type robbery, but SGA not winning it because of the "best player in the world" moniker tilting MVP in Jokic's favor just feels wrong. When the individual box, lineup, and advanced metrics are this close, then leading your team to a better record has to matter at some point. It's absurd the kind of ceiling raising he's doing right now with such a young team (8.21 SRS, Top-5 in both offense and defense, +12.1 net-rating with him on the court, +11.5 on/off). He deserves it.

The OKC are stacked, they have 7 players shooting over 40% from 3 point range.

I don't know what age has to do with it if you are a good player you are a good player.

Chet already has star impact, very good 2 way player. Jalen is Williams is a very capable 2nd or 3rd option.

On the other hand Nuggets 2nd best player missed many games and their depth is not nearly as good....

[Exp0sed]

that's all well and good but the counter-argument would be - this Mavs supporting cast is superior to all of Luka's prior rosters
Luka\Kyrie\Green\PJ\Gafford\Exum\Kleber\THJ\DDJ\Lively, not in this order nessescarily but as a 10 man rotation, it's clearly better imo than the teams Luka couldn't carry to say a 66% winrate

meaning - just because past Luka teams weren't on pace to be at that level, does not mean it also applies to this particular team. this is the first time Luka has a genuine co-star and actual NBA rotation players at every position and on the bench

I mean, it's certainly possible that this team is better than all the ones Luka had before (certainly looks better on paper) and perhaps they prove to be a 66% win team going forward. But let's acknowledge that the team you listed – including Washington and Gafford – was not the team that was assembled for most of the season. So we cannot retroactively assume a better record for the season based on moves that were made only very recently.

ofc, I agree the Mavs record wouldn't have been that much better even if they OKC level of health so far (with the roster they had prior to the trades)

I also think Kidd hasn't given mins to his best players before the deadline moves and he's doing the same rn but that's a different issue all together

[Exp0sed]

I'm not gonna say it'd be an Embiid over Jokic type robbery, but SGA not winning it because of the "best player in the world" moniker tilting MVP in Jokic's favor just feels wrong. When the individual box, lineup, and advanced metrics are this close, then leading your team to a better record has to matter at some point. It's absurd the kind of ceiling raising he's doing right now with such a young team (8.21 SRS, Top-5 in both offense and defense, +12.1 net-rating with him on the court, +11.5 on/off). He deserves it.

def not a robbery but giving it to Jokic wouldn't be some default "best player in the world", Denver wasn't deep last season either, their bench was godawful and they were being routinly decimated in the non-Jokic mins and they've had injuries as well
as a result they didn't win as many games as they could have won with a better and deeper team

they were giving meaninful mins to the corpse of Jeff Green and DAJ..
they lost their best bench player for nothing over the summer and replaced him with very young and inconsistent players (Watson, Braun and rookie Strawther). OKC and Minny who are ahead of the Nuggets are flat out better (and deeper) than the Nuggets say 2-8 or 2-10

Murray has missed alot of games and haven't been that good when he did play
I don't MPJ or AG would even be Minny's (or OKC's) 5th best player, let alone 2nd or 3rd like he is on the Nuggets

Jokic has been phenomenal. individually he has a great case for having a better season than SGA.
they just lost 3 straight games where they didn't have Murray, MPJ or both when's the last time SGA played without his co-stars and how many game would they have dropped if he was by himself?

his raw stats dwarf SGA's and they are split in advanced stats and OKC's roster is filled with high quality guys. Presti has drafted very well, guys like Isiah Joe, rookie Wallace, Wiggins, Jaylin, Kenrich etc. would all be featured heavily in the rotation if they were on the Nuggets - OKC is deep

SGA would def get heavy consideration if they manage to stay on top and keep a few games (and spots) of distance from the Nuggets but this isn't a "best player in the world" default scenario - Jokic has been killing it, some of it is just masked by some injuries and depth\talent issues the Nuggets have

even last game vs the Dubs where Jokic was doing everything and kept them alive (and close) in the 1st, as soon as he sat they were down 15 in a couple of mins. they managed to erase that deficit (with Jokic being the main driver obviously) but that doesn't happen every game naturally, sometime the hole is too deep especially vs the better teams in the league

the defense argument is valid but MVP has always been more offense oriented and besides, OKC has the 5th best defense and the Nuggets are 10th. SGA is playing with a bonafide defensive anchor in Chet and other above average defenders

Jokic has played some good defense, so have KCP and AG (and Watson) but they also have guys like Murray, MPJ, Jackson, Braun all playing heavy mins in the rotation. i'm not sure how much credit I give SGA for the Thunder's defense and anyway the two teams aren't that far apart

the defensive bridge is def not big enough to bridge the playmaking and the rebounding gap

two phenomenal players having insane seasons, crazy consistency too (for both)
whoever wins it will probably deserve it, atm it's Jokic imo but SGA is right there with him

[Sgt Major]

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[CobraCommander]

Luka has a locked in Kyrie and pieces and he is in 8th.

Luka has a chance if he moves up the rankings but he can’t win from 8th the year after missing the play in just last year when Jokic got snubbed for mvp last year and then went on to win the ring and is in 3rd this year and primed to make another title run.

Like how do you look at Luka vs Jokic and say Luka is having a better year than Jokic…?

Jokic is the MVP so far

Go back into my posting in this very thread and you'll see my opinion of Jokic, don't put up strawmen.
The reason Mavs are 8th are injuries, Mavs are the 3rd most injured team in the league after Grizzlies and Hornets, Kyrie has missed 23 games, Maxi 30+ and many other injuries, Mavs would be with the top 4 seeds if they were healthy.

You know what you sign up for when you get Kyrie. I don’t want to hear about him missing games.

Exactly -

I started by saying GM and Coach- not talent -are preventing Luka from winning a MVP.

But if Luka is cool with or even endorsing the signing Part Time Kyrie, then you can’t keep complaining about the roster.

again everyone including me loves Luka - but a 8 seed gonna have a hard time winning regardless of his stats-


but imo there are is 1 guy absolutely ahead of Luka - Jokic-

There is one other guy that is marginally but definitely ahead of Luka SGA

And one guy that is going to probably get the same or similar number of mvp votes - Giannis

And there are two guys that are probably gonna steal votes from Luka - Tatum and Edwards - cause their teams are in first -

The dark horse that’s gonna get vote from everyone not named Kawhi - Kawhi is gonna steal first and second place votes from everyone other than Jokic -

[QPR]

I think the Kawhi ship has sailed. He may get the odd third place vote though.

[Infinite Llamas]

I'm not gonna say it'd be an Embiid over Jokic type robbery, but SGA not winning it because of the "best player in the world" moniker tilting MVP in Jokic's favor just feels wrong. When the individual box, lineup, and advanced metrics are this close, then leading your team to a better record has to matter at some point. It's absurd the kind of ceiling raising he's doing right now with such a young team (8.21 SRS, Top-5 in both offense and defense, +12.1 net-rating with him on the court, +11.5 on/off). He deserves it.

OKC has 7 players with a positive BPM this season. Denver has a whopping 3. OKC has been pretty stacked this year.