2024 Off-Season

[CrimsonCrew]

It was just announced that the salary cap will bet set at $255.4 million. Much higher than the $243 million and certainly better than $250 million. That now puts us about $872K in cap space. Pair that with some cuts and restructures and we should be good with some room to maneuver.

Yup. This is why I don't get where any of this "choose between Aiyuk or Deebo" or "cut Juice or Armstead" stuff is coming from. We are not in salary cap trouble this year at all. I expect to see restructures to get us enough cap space to add an impact guy or two. Will pushing money into the future bring some pain down the road? For sure. But we're at the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl, I don't care about two seasons from now. Plus guess what, when we do have to re-tool in the next few years Purdy/Aiyuk/Warner/Bosa/Hufanga/Lenoir are all young enough to lead us through a couple of leaner years and be core pieces of the next great Niners team.

This one might be controversial, but we have an out from Greenlaw's contract this summer. $2.8 million dead cap. I'd explore the possibility of cutting him and bringing Al-Shaair back to replace him.

This change helps, no doubt, but it also means contracts going forward are going to be higher. And we're in worse cap shape next year than we are this year. I think there's a legitimate question as to whether we can pay two TEs top-market deals while also paying a RB, TE, OT, and also paying a QB at or near the top of the market. You have to factor in age and position, of course. Trent won't be around much longer, and Kittle is getting older. McCaffrey is old for a RB. Deebo plays a position that usually has some longevity, but he doesn't play it in a way that leads to longevity. I don't think we move off him this year, but if a team was willing to offer a first or more next year, I would strongly consider it. For all his obvious strengths, Deebo is also a liability in many areas, and perhaps less of a fit with Purdy than previous QBs.

[CrimsonCrew]

Looking into this a bit, I believe the $834,000 number includes the rollover. That's pretty brutal. I thought we were still going to get a bump from the rollover. I don't see how this team doesn't make some hard decisions this year and next. We've already restructured a bunch of guys and have some huge dead money hits coming up. We can't keep doing that if we want to keep our young guys.

[49er4life1979]

It was just announced that the salary cap will bet set at $255.4 million. Much higher than the $243 million and certainly better than $250 million. That now puts us about $872K in cap space. Pair that with some cuts and restructures and we should be good with some room to maneuver.

Yup. This is why I don't get where any of this "choose between Aiyuk or Deebo" or "cut Juice or Armstead" stuff is coming from. We are not in salary cap trouble this year at all. I expect to see restructures to get us enough cap space to add an impact guy or two. Will pushing money into the future bring some pain down the road? For sure. But we're at the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl, I don't care about two seasons from now. Plus guess what, when we do have to re-tool in the next few years Purdy/Aiyuk/Warner/Bosa/Hufanga/Lenoir are all young enough to lead us through a couple of leaner years and be core pieces of the next great Niners team.

This one might be controversial, but we have an out from Greenlaw's contract this summer. $2.8 million dead cap. I'd explore the possibility of cutting him and bringing Al-Shaair back to replace him.

Well we still need to prioritize and be careful. Deebo, for his production has a very inflated cap figure of 28 million. That needs to come down a bit. Same with Armstead, who is breaking down the last 2 years and has missed 12 or 13 games. Juszczyk is 33 and has a very high cap number as well at over 7 million. I will bet all 3 of those get addressed this offseason in one way or another. Aiyuk of course deserves to get paid. Then you have a very solid young player like Lenoir who will be eligible for an extenstion this offseason and should get one hopefully. As for free agency, I would try and sign Al-Shaair and bring him back, obviously with the Greenlaw injury and him knowing our system. GIve him a one or two year deal. Only at ther right price of course, but my first hope is Dee Winters is ready. We need most of the next core group to come from draft picks from the past couple years and this year's draft with Brock's contract looming.

[CrimsonCrew]

It was just announced that the salary cap will bet set at $255.4 million. Much higher than the $243 million and certainly better than $250 million. That now puts us about $872K in cap space. Pair that with some cuts and restructures and we should be good with some room to maneuver.

Yup. This is why I don't get where any of this "choose between Aiyuk or Deebo" or "cut Juice or Armstead" stuff is coming from. We are not in salary cap trouble this year at all. I expect to see restructures to get us enough cap space to add an impact guy or two. Will pushing money into the future bring some pain down the road? For sure. But we're at the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl, I don't care about two seasons from now. Plus guess what, when we do have to re-tool in the next few years Purdy/Aiyuk/Warner/Bosa/Hufanga/Lenoir are all young enough to lead us through a couple of leaner years and be core pieces of the next great Niners team.

This one might be controversial, but we have an out from Greenlaw's contract this summer. $2.8 million dead cap. I'd explore the possibility of cutting him and bringing Al-Shaair back to replace him.

Well we still need to prioritize and be careful. Deebo, for his production has a very inflated cap figure of 28 million. That needs to come down a bit. Same with Armstead, who is breaking down the last 2 years and has missed 12 or 13 games. Juszczyk is 33 and has a very high cap number as well at over 7 million. I will bet all 3 of those get addressed this offseason in one way or another. Aiyuk of course deserves to get paid. Then you have a very solid young player like Lenoir who will be eligible for an extenstion this offseason and should get one hopefully. As for free agency, I would try and sign Al-Shaair and bring him back, obviously with the Greenlaw injury and him knowing our system. GIve him a one or two year deal. Only at ther right price of course, but my first hope is Dee Winters is ready. We need most of the next core group to come from draft picks from the past couple years and this year's draft with Brock's contract looming.

We can't restructure Armstead. He's a FA next year. As said, we can't justify extending him given his ongoing health issues. And we are already on the hook for almost $15 million in dead money for him in 2025 - and $5 million in 2025, and almost $3 million in 2026. We could cut him, but it only saves us $2 million. Not worth it to walk away from a starter who is also a high character guy and leader. I think he plays out his contract and then walks next year.

I hope we don't restructure Deebo. He's already got $10 million of dead cap in the two years after his contract ends. He's getting older, he's not consistently an impact player. You can argue we should have traded him in 2022. If someone offered a first-round pick or more, we would have to consider it. With Purdy's quick processing, anticipation, and accuracy, we need guys who can get open quickly more than we need a beast after the catch who can't get open against man-to-man. Though I don't know that we can move him this year. His dead cap would be about $43 million, but I think that's if he's cut. Not sure how trading him would impact that.

Juice doesn't save us a ton, but I think he might agree to lower his figure absent a restructure. Again, we seem to be going away from as much play action, as much lead-blocking. As great as he is as a receiver - for a FB (or really any RB, honestly) - I'd rather have a really solid third or fourth receiver, or second receiving TE.

[CrimsonCrew]

Maiocco is reporting that Isaiah Oliver was cut. Logical move. Decent cap savings to move on from a guy who didn't pan out.

[CrimsonCrew]

Yup. This is why I don't get where any of this "choose between Aiyuk or Deebo" or "cut Juice or Armstead" stuff is coming from. We are not in salary cap trouble this year at all. I expect to see restructures to get us enough cap space to add an impact guy or two. Will pushing money into the future bring some pain down the road? For sure. But we're at the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl, I don't care about two seasons from now. Plus guess what, when we do have to re-tool in the next few years Purdy/Aiyuk/Warner/Bosa/Hufanga/Lenoir are all young enough to lead us through a couple of leaner years and be core pieces of the next great Niners team.

This one might be controversial, but we have an out from Greenlaw's contract this summer. $2.8 million dead cap. I'd explore the possibility of cutting him and bringing Al-Shaair back to replace him.

Well we still need to prioritize and be careful. Deebo, for his production has a very inflated cap figure of 28 million. That needs to come down a bit. Same with Armstead, who is breaking down the last 2 years and has missed 12 or 13 games. Juszczyk is 33 and has a very high cap number as well at over 7 million. I will bet all 3 of those get addressed this offseason in one way or another. Aiyuk of course deserves to get paid. Then you have a very solid young player like Lenoir who will be eligible for an extenstion this offseason and should get one hopefully. As for free agency, I would try and sign Al-Shaair and bring him back, obviously with the Greenlaw injury and him knowing our system. GIve him a one or two year deal. Only at ther right price of course, but my first hope is Dee Winters is ready. We need most of the next core group to come from draft picks from the past couple years and this year's draft with Brock's contract looming.

We can't restructure Armstead. He's a FA next year. As said, we can't justify extending him given his ongoing health issues. And we are already on the hook for almost $15 million in dead money for him in 2025 - and $5 million in 2025, and almost $3 million in 2026. We could cut him, but it only saves us $2 million. Not worth it to walk away from a starter who is also a high character guy and leader. I think he plays out his contract and then walks next year.

I hope we don't restructure Deebo. He's already got $10 million of dead cap in the two years after his contract ends. He's getting older, he's not consistently an impact player. You can argue we should have traded him in 2022. If someone offered a first-round pick or more, we would have to consider it. With Purdy's quick processing, anticipation, and accuracy, we need guys who can get open quickly more than we need a beast after the catch who can't get open against man-to-man. Though I don't know that we can move him this year. His dead cap would be about $43 million, but I think that's if he's cut. Not sure how trading him would impact that.

Juice doesn't save us a ton, but I think he might agree to lower his figure absent a restructure. Again, we seem to be going away from as much play action, as much lead-blocking. As great as he is as a receiver - for a FB (or really any RB, honestly) - I'd rather have a really solid third or fourth receiver, or second receiving TE.

Lombardi has a lengthy piece on this. He says the Niners would save almost $7 million this year by trading Deebo. No idea if that's accurate. If it is, and if there was a buyer, I'd strongly consider it. This is a good WR class, so we should be able to replace him with a younger, cheaper player.

[arich35]

Well we still need to prioritize and be careful. Deebo, for his production has a very inflated cap figure of 28 million. That needs to come down a bit. Same with Armstead, who is breaking down the last 2 years and has missed 12 or 13 games. Juszczyk is 33 and has a very high cap number as well at over 7 million. I will bet all 3 of those get addressed this offseason in one way or another. Aiyuk of course deserves to get paid. Then you have a very solid young player like Lenoir who will be eligible for an extenstion this offseason and should get one hopefully. As for free agency, I would try and sign Al-Shaair and bring him back, obviously with the Greenlaw injury and him knowing our system. GIve him a one or two year deal. Only at ther right price of course, but my first hope is Dee Winters is ready. We need most of the next core group to come from draft picks from the past couple years and this year's draft with Brock's contract looming.

We can't restructure Armstead. He's a FA next year. As said, we can't justify extending him given his ongoing health issues. And we are already on the hook for almost $15 million in dead money for him in 2025 - and $5 million in 2025, and almost $3 million in 2026. We could cut him, but it only saves us $2 million. Not worth it to walk away from a starter who is also a high character guy and leader. I think he plays out his contract and then walks next year.

I hope we don't restructure Deebo. He's already got $10 million of dead cap in the two years after his contract ends. He's getting older, he's not consistently an impact player. You can argue we should have traded him in 2022. If someone offered a first-round pick or more, we would have to consider it. With Purdy's quick processing, anticipation, and accuracy, we need guys who can get open quickly more than we need a beast after the catch who can't get open against man-to-man. Though I don't know that we can move him this year. His dead cap would be about $43 million, but I think that's if he's cut. Not sure how trading him would impact that.

Juice doesn't save us a ton, but I think he might agree to lower his figure absent a restructure. Again, we seem to be going away from as much play action, as much lead-blocking. As great as he is as a receiver - for a FB (or really any RB, honestly) - I'd rather have a really solid third or fourth receiver, or second receiving TE.

Lombardi has a lengthy piece on this. He says the Niners would save almost $7 million this year by trading Deebo. No idea if that's accurate. If it is, and if there was a buyer, I'd strongly consider it. This is a good WR class, so we should be able to replace him with a younger, cheaper player.

With the salary cap being higher than we thought, no need to save $7M. Couldn't they just restructure him and save that 7M anyways? I think we will be fine and our front office has done an awesome job so far IMO.

[CrimsonCrew]

We can't restructure Armstead. He's a FA next year. As said, we can't justify extending him given his ongoing health issues. And we are already on the hook for almost $15 million in dead money for him in 2025 - and $5 million in 2025, and almost $3 million in 2026. We could cut him, but it only saves us $2 million. Not worth it to walk away from a starter who is also a high character guy and leader. I think he plays out his contract and then walks next year.

I hope we don't restructure Deebo. He's already got $10 million of dead cap in the two years after his contract ends. He's getting older, he's not consistently an impact player. You can argue we should have traded him in 2022. If someone offered a first-round pick or more, we would have to consider it. With Purdy's quick processing, anticipation, and accuracy, we need guys who can get open quickly more than we need a beast after the catch who can't get open against man-to-man. Though I don't know that we can move him this year. His dead cap would be about $43 million, but I think that's if he's cut. Not sure how trading him would impact that.

Juice doesn't save us a ton, but I think he might agree to lower his figure absent a restructure. Again, we seem to be going away from as much play action, as much lead-blocking. As great as he is as a receiver - for a FB (or really any RB, honestly) - I'd rather have a really solid third or fourth receiver, or second receiving TE.

Lombardi has a lengthy piece on this. He says the Niners would save almost $7 million this year by trading Deebo. No idea if that's accurate. If it is, and if there was a buyer, I'd strongly consider it. This is a good WR class, so we should be able to replace him with a younger, cheaper player.

With the salary cap being higher than we thought, no need to save $7M. Couldn't they just restructure him and save that 7M anyways? I think we will be fine and our front office has done an awesome job so far IMO.

They can restructure him, but restructures just kick the can down the road. I hate the restructures they did with Armstead. He's making a ton of money, we're going to be paying him for years after he departs. I don't think there was anything about those decisions that was smart.

Re: Samuel, we absolutely can keep him, and very arguably should. We're still right at the top of the league in talent, so I don't want to get rid of impact guys. But I don't like the Samuel contract longterm. It already feels like a mistake. He's a unique player, even a special player, but he's not good at the fundamentals. He can't get open against good man coverage. He doesn't run legit routes when he's not the primary target. He doesn't block hard.

I think if we had a legit option who was good at the fundamentals and was markedly cheaper, we'd be as good or a better team. If we can trade him for a first-round pick, I would personally be hard-pressed to pass that up. Better to do it next year, but then he's a year older, and if he continues to have injury issues, there may not be as much market for him.

To be very clear, I would not trade Deebo this year unless we got a very good trade offer. But if we did, I'd be hard-pressed not to take it.

[CrimsonCrew]

Re: the cap situation, even without factoring in adding outside FAs, the Niners have to re-sign or lose the following guys who played a fairly significant role this past season:

Tashaun Gipson
Jauan Jennings
Clelin Ferrell
Chase Young
Randy Gregory
Oren Burks
Javon Kinlaw
Jon Feliciano
Ray-Ray McCloud
Sam Darnold (didn't play much but backup QB is an important position)
Kevin Givens

We may not feel too much pressure to replace Gipson as we arguably have his replacement already in Brown, but we need depth. Jennings accounted for 1/3 of the snaps last year, and McCloud accounted for 19%. I think we keep Jennings at a second-round tender, but that's almost $5 million, so I'm not sure we can. If we tender him at the lower level, I expect we'll lose him.

We are losing over 1,000 snaps at the DE position, and will have to replace those with at least one or two vet FAs. Kinlaw played almost 45% of snaps, and Givens played over 36%, so we've got 850+ DT snaps to replace. Feliciano was our best starting guard this year, so we need to replace him. And a backup QB is usually pricey due to the nature of the position.

If we truly are only $1 million under the cap prior to the Oliver move (now more like $3.5 million under), we will need to make some more moves just to be able to fill out our roster.

[Samurai]

If we can get a good pick for Deebo, I would think we have to consider trading him and focusing on keeping Aiyuk. Of course Deebo is still valuable; you aren't going to get much in return for someone who isn't valuable. But Deebo is getting closer to being a gimmick player than he is to an elite impact receiver and his age and injuries seem to be accelerating that descent. And we can replicate more of his value as a screen receiving threat with CMC and as a big-bodied short yardage receiver with Jennings (another priority).

The caveat remains that getting picks doesn't help us much if we don't improve our ability to nail our early round picks. My guess is most front offices aren't strong in self-awareness to recognize their own weaknesses in scouting.

[CrimsonCrew]

Despite my comments above, I don't want to fall into the trap of devaluing Deebo based on one bad game. He was generally really bad against the Chiefs, though he was open for a couple big plays where Purdy either couldn't (usually due to pressure) or didn't (usually due to play design and reads) get to him. He's never going to be a strong player against good man-to-man coverage, but he's still one of the best in the league against zone.

The biggest issues for me are his injury history, his physical style of play, and deterioration in that physical play as he ages. Granted a guy like Anquan Boldin played a physical style well into his 30s. In a perfect world, I would keep Deebo this year and then trade him for a first-round pick next year. The hit rate on early WRs has gotten quite good, so I think you can replace him with a guy who could bring comparable production, granted through more conventional means. And it sure looks like the Titans struck out on their AJ Brown replacement, which is a bit of a cautionary tale.

[Pattersonca65]

Looks like the defensive coordinator interviews are underway. Not sure what to think about the in-house hires. Are any of these guys ready for prime time?

[CrimsonCrew]

So far, they've interviewed Brandon Staley and Nick Sorensen.

Staley is something of a curious choice. He was great for one season with a very talented Rams team. Then he got a head-coaching gig with the Chargers and his defenses struggled. Staley primarily runs a 3-4 defense, which isn't really a fit for our personnel. I sure don't want Bosa in coverage basically ever, though I suppose Jackson and Beal could be alright in that role (Jackson did a fair bit of that in college, though some of his college struggles have been attributed to that). It's an interesting proposition, but I can't see Shanahan going for it, in which case you're trying to fit a round peg into a square hole.

Sorensen is interesting. Former DB who was always a heady guy. He started out coaching in Seattle, so he has a background in our type of defense. He's also been a STs coordinator, so he has some experience with a big-picture role vs. that of a position coach. There's something to be said for going with a defensive backs specialist again, as our front seems to be in decent shape.

I heard some chatter on various podcasts about Daniel Bullocks if we hire from within. He's fairly experienced (Niners website says 17 years, but that has to include NFL playing career; he's only been coaching in the NFL since 2016), and also has a background with defensive backs.

Holland and Kocurek aren't really DC candidates, so Sorensen and Bullocks are probably it if we hire from within.

[SK21209]

I hope Kyle is just doing Staley a solid by interviewing him, he's held in pretty low regard around the league right now. That guys is a lot of empty rhetoric and ego IMO. I'm curious who the two external candidates are.

[Pattersonca65]

So far, they've interviewed Brandon Staley and Nick Sorensen.

Staley is something of a curious choice. He was great for one season with a very talented Rams team. Then he got a head-coaching gig with the Chargers and his defenses struggled. Staley primarily runs a 3-4 defense, which isn't really a fit for our personnel. I sure don't want Bosa in coverage basically ever, though I suppose Jackson and Beal could be alright in that role (Jackson did a fair bit of that in college, though some of his college struggles have been attributed to that). It's an interesting proposition, but I can't see Shanahan going for it, in which case you're trying to fit a round peg into a square hole.

Sorensen is interesting. Former DB who was always a heady guy. He started out coaching in Seattle, so he has a background in our type of defense. He's also been a STs coordinator, so he has some experience with a big-picture role vs. that of a position coach. There's something to be said for going with a defensive backs specialist again, as our front seems to be in decent shape.

I heard some chatter on various podcasts about Daniel Bullocks if we hire from within. He's fairly experienced (Niners website says 17 years, but that has to include NFL playing career; he's only been coaching in the NFL since 2016), and also has a background with defensive backs.

Holland and Kocurek aren't really DC candidates, so Sorensen and Bullocks are probably it if we hire from within.

If they do promote within I hope whoever gets it is ready to go as DC. It isn't 2017, there isn't time for growing pains and learning how to be a DC. This team is trying to win now.

[Samurai]

Despite my comments above, I don't want to fall into the trap of devaluing Deebo based on one bad game. He was generally really bad against the Chiefs, though he was open for a couple big plays where Purdy either couldn't (usually due to pressure) or didn't (usually due to play design and reads) get to him. He's never going to be a strong player against good man-to-man coverage, but he's still one of the best in the league against zone.

The biggest issues for me are his injury history, his physical style of play, and deterioration in that physical play as he ages. Granted a guy like Anquan Boldin played a physical style well into his 30s. In a perfect world, I would keep Deebo this year and then trade him for a first-round pick next year. The hit rate on early WRs has gotten quite good, so I think you can replace him with a guy who could bring comparable production, granted through more conventional means. And it sure looks like the Titans struck out on their AJ Brown replacement, which is a bit of a cautionary tale.

Can't speak for others, but my post about trading Deebo isn't based on just one bad game. I think he has a very real injury history that goes far beyond one game, and with his style of play and age, I don't see that suddenly turning around. His success is based on his aggression and strength that makes him extremely tough to bring down. Strength and athleticism tend to go down as one ages. He isn't a great (or even good) route runner and his hands aren't exceptional; those two skills have a little more resilience with aging but that's not Deebo's game.

The priority for me would be to keep Aiyuk and Jennings. Jennings gives us a big, strong receiver like Deebo; not as dynamic but arguably better on 3rd downs. CMC can be our go-to screen receiver; perhaps not as electric as Deebo but still highly effective. If we can get a solid WR in the draft on a rookie contract to go along with Aiyuk, JJ and CMC, I think we are better in the long run.

[CrimsonCrew]

Despite my comments above, I don't want to fall into the trap of devaluing Deebo based on one bad game. He was generally really bad against the Chiefs, though he was open for a couple big plays where Purdy either couldn't (usually due to pressure) or didn't (usually due to play design and reads) get to him. He's never going to be a strong player against good man-to-man coverage, but he's still one of the best in the league against zone.

The biggest issues for me are his injury history, his physical style of play, and deterioration in that physical play as he ages. Granted a guy like Anquan Boldin played a physical style well into his 30s. In a perfect world, I would keep Deebo this year and then trade him for a first-round pick next year. The hit rate on early WRs has gotten quite good, so I think you can replace him with a guy who could bring comparable production, granted through more conventional means. And it sure looks like the Titans struck out on their AJ Brown replacement, which is a bit of a cautionary tale.

Can't speak for others, but my post about trading Deebo isn't based on just one bad game. I think he has a very real injury history that goes far beyond one game, and with his style of play and age, I don't see that suddenly turning around. His success is based on his aggression and strength that makes him extremely tough to bring down. Strength and athleticism tend to go down as one ages. He isn't a great (or even good) route runner and his hands aren't exceptional; those two skills have a little more resilience with aging but that's not Deebo's game.

The priority for me would be to keep Aiyuk and Jennings. Jennings gives us a big, strong receiver like Deebo; not as dynamic but arguably better on 3rd downs. CMC can be our go-to screen receiver; perhaps not as electric as Deebo but still highly effective. If we can get a solid WR in the draft on a rookie contract to go along with Aiyuk, JJ and CMC, I think we are better in the long run.

Yeah, we're basically in agreement. For me, having seen what we have from Purdy, it would be really hard to lose Aiyuk in favor of Deebo. Deebo is still elite at what he does, but what he does has become less valuable in this offense as we have a QB who is better at finding the open guy and attacking downfield. And he's only elite when he's on the field at or near 100%.

If we could add another plus route runner who can shake coverage quickly, I think that makes us a better team longterm than having Deebo. And as valuable as Deebo is in the red zone due to his dual run-pass threat, he hasn't been as effective running with the ball outside the red zone. If the Jets had offered us #10 straight-up for Deebo in 2022, I would have been sorely tempted to take that trade and draft Garrett Wilson to replace him. That would have been pretty amazing for this team. Ironically, when they wanted pick 62 back, I thought that was too steep, but that pick (Drake Jackson) has effectively been worthless to date.

I'd still love to try to find guy who either converted from WR to RB or from RB to WR who could give us some of the versatility that Deebo does (though every team would like that), but at the end of the day, I'd rather stick with the younger player who always plays hard, has developed into a leader in the clubhouse (granted Deebo is something of a spiritual leader), and very arguably fits our QB better.

Another thought here is that while Deebo is extremely versatile as a football player, he isn't particularly scheme versatile as a WR, which also limits Aiyuk. I think Aiyuk could excel at any of the receiver positions, but because he's really our only true split end, he effectively only lines up there. If we had two similarly versatile receivers, we could move them around to create mismatches. Aiyuk is actually fairly big (205 coming out, and possibly more now; Samuel was 214), physical, and excelled in YAC in college. He could absolutely play some flanker or out out of the slot.

Granted some of that will also necessitate better drop-back passing schemes from Kyle.

[Samurai]

Spoiler:

Despite my comments above, I don't want to fall into the trap of devaluing Deebo based on one bad game. He was generally really bad against the Chiefs, though he was open for a couple big plays where Purdy either couldn't (usually due to pressure) or didn't (usually due to play design and reads) get to him. He's never going to be a strong player against good man-to-man coverage, but he's still one of the best in the league against zone.

The biggest issues for me are his injury history, his physical style of play, and deterioration in that physical play as he ages. Granted a guy like Anquan Boldin played a physical style well into his 30s. In a perfect world, I would keep Deebo this year and then trade him for a first-round pick next year. The hit rate on early WRs has gotten quite good, so I think you can replace him with a guy who could bring comparable production, granted through more conventional means. And it sure looks like the Titans struck out on their AJ Brown replacement, which is a bit of a cautionary tale.

Can't speak for others, but my post about trading Deebo isn't based on just one bad game. I think he has a very real injury history that goes far beyond one game, and with his style of play and age, I don't see that suddenly turning around. His success is based on his aggression and strength that makes him extremely tough to bring down. Strength and athleticism tend to go down as one ages. He isn't a great (or even good) route runner and his hands aren't exceptional; those two skills have a little more resilience with aging but that's not Deebo's game.

The priority for me would be to keep Aiyuk and Jennings. Jennings gives us a big, strong receiver like Deebo; not as dynamic but arguably better on 3rd downs. CMC can be our go-to screen receiver; perhaps not as electric as Deebo but still highly effective. If we can get a solid WR in the draft on a rookie contract to go along with Aiyuk, JJ and CMC, I think we are better in the long run.

Yeah, we're basically in agreement. For me, having seen what we have from Purdy, it would be really hard to lose Aiyuk in favor of Deebo. Deebo is still elite at what he does, but what he does has become less valuable in this offense as we have a QB who is better at finding the open guy and attacking downfield. And he's only elite when he's on the field at or near 100%.

If we could add another plus route runner who can shake coverage quickly, I think that makes us a better team longterm than having Deebo. And as valuable as Deebo is in the red zone due to his dual run-pass threat, he hasn't been as effective running with the ball outside the red zone. If the Jets had offered us #10 straight-up for Deebo in 2022, I would have been sorely tempted to take that trade and draft Garrett Wilson to replace him. That would have been pretty amazing for this team. Ironically, when they wanted pick 62 back, I thought that was too steep, but that pick (Drake Jackson) has effectively been worthless to date.

I'd still love to try to find guy who either converted from WR to RB or from RB to WR who could give us some of the versatility that Deebo does (though every team would like that), but at the end of the day, I'd rather stick with the younger player who always plays hard, has developed into a leader in the clubhouse (granted Deebo is something of a spiritual leader), and very arguably fits our QB better.

Another thought here is that while Deebo is extremely versatile as a football player, he isn't particularly scheme versatile as a WR, which also limits Aiyuk. I think Aiyuk could excel at any of the receiver positions, but because he's really our only true split end, he effectively only lines up there. If we had two similarly versatile receivers, we could move them around to create mismatches. Aiyuk is actually fairly big (205 coming out, and possibly more now; Samuel was 214), physical, and excelled in YAC in college. He could absolutely play some flanker or out out of the slot.

Granted some of that will also necessitate better drop-back passing schemes from Kyle.

Agree that Deebo is still valuable, which is why it would be better trying to trade him now while he still has value rather than waiting a year too late only to get pennies on the dollar for him. Not sure if it makes sense to try to draft a "Deebo-lite" since Deebo is so unique; might be better to rely on CMC as our RB/slot WR and draft a speed guy that could stretch the defense. Essentially what we had hoped Danny Gray would be and is still a missing piece in our offense. Especially now that Purdy demonstrated in the latter half of the season that for a guy without a cannon, he can hit a deep route if given enough time. Which seems to be the key for Kyle's drop-back passing scheme to work; seemed that Kyle was calling plays that required protection that our OL isn't capable of providing.

[CrimsonCrew]

Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I went back and reviewed the drafts in which we gave up picks in the Trey Lance trade, just to see what we could have come away with. Feel free to stop reading here if it's too painful.

In 2021, assuming we stayed at 12, LB Micah Parsons went with that pick (granted I don't think we would have taken him due to character issues). T Rashawn Slater went 13th and has been great. At 14, OL (he's played guard but there's talk of moving him to tackle apparently) Alijah Vera-Tucker has been quite good. QB Mac Jones at 15 looks like a bust, but wouldn't have been worse than Lance and we wouldn't have traded up. At 18, Jaelan Phillips has been quite good despite an injury this year.

In 2022, they would have picked 29th overall. That area of the draft was pretty darn solid that year. That pick was Cole Strange, who was widely seen as a major reach at that point (I thought he might be available with our second-round pick), but he has been a solid IOL on a bad offense. DE George Karlaftis went one pick later, and he has been a pretty good DE who would probably have been a fit opposite Bosa. WR Christian Watson went 34th. He's dealt with injury this past year, but has been something approaching an impact player when healthy. CB Roger McCreary went 35th and has played well at CB. I don't think we would have taken RB Breece Hall, but he looked dynamic pre-injury, and still good post-injury. S Jalen Pitre has been okay to date in a starting role. DE Arnold Ebiketie has also been decent, and DE Boye Mafe has been good in a role. CB Kyler Gordon has been a solid starter.

2023 is tougher to evaluate because these guys are all so young. We would have picked 29th again. DL Bryan Bresee went with that pick and he hasn't been particularly good. Edge Nolan Smith went 30th and has also only been passable. CB Joey Porter Jr. was a good starter this year. TE Sam LaPorta looks like the next big name at TE (granted that was seen as a bit of a reach). TE Michael Mayer was okay and showed some potential. OG Steve Avila looked solid.

If it were me, and assuming we're staying away from QB in this scenario, I probably would have gone Slater in 2021, and Karlaftis or McCreary in 2022 (I liked McCreary quite a bit that year, though didn't think Karlaftis would fall that far so didn't have a strong sense of him). 2023 is a tough one at this point. Porter Jr. doesn't really fit our scheme and I don't think we would have looked at LaPorta. Maybe Avila or Bergeron there.

Also the 2022 3rd rounder. Nothing all that interesting there.

Anyway, a somewhat pointless exercise, but I was just curious specifically what we passed up with that pick.

[CrimsonCrew]

Semi-related note: I watched a short Danny Gray highlight video. I realize the odds are against him contributing for this team at this point, but he really would bring something to this team if he could.

Despite his speed, he really wasn't much of a deep threat for SMU, though he did of course run some deep routes. However, he seemed most effective (granted small sample-size) on the medium or deep in-breaking routes that are such a staple of our offense. He would catch a ball on the move, turn on the jets, and pick up chunk yards. If he could actually show some of that at the NFL level, it would be huge for us. He presents a speed threat that we really don't have otherwise.