Hornets offer top-4 for Suggs

[MasterIchiro]

Suggs was picked 4 overall. Get a 4 overall pick on a rookie scale contract who plays a position of need.

Cody Martin as filler.

Who says no here?

Edit: Suggs picked 5th.

[JustBuzzin]

Right idea wrong player.

I wouldn't be mad if we shopped our lottery pick only if we can get a legit wing starter. Miller is a 2 guard because of his build. We need a long athletic sf if we trading that pick.

[Residual-Heat]

Suggs got picked 5th overall, but the Magic arent giving up their starting SG for a rookie. They have enough young talent, and Suggs still has untapped potential. They're not looking to go younger and get worse next season. They'll be aiming to add vet FAs and winning 50+ games.

TBH though i know very little about this draft except for the fact that people think its a very weak draft..

[MoneyTalks41890]

I think the value is about right, though obviously there’s going to be a range of perspectives on that, but to me this is slightly wrong direction for each team. Orlando is more ready now, Charlotte should take the cheap years and upside.

[MasterIchiro]

I think the value is about right, though obviously there’s going to be a range of perspectives on that, but to me this is slightly wrong direction for each team. Orlando is more ready now, Charlotte should take the cheap years and upside.

I'm not looking direction here so much as respective fits.

I believe Magic's missing piece is a pure playmaker and floor general who can dish to Banchero and Franz and also score or command double teams himself.

Nikola Topic would have to be there for me to contemplate this move as Orlando. I acknowledge my bias for Topic. I love him and believe he can become a PG version of fellow countrymen Nik Jokic.

The Hornets really need a 3 & D with NBA size and strength at the 2 to enhance their much improved defense. They don't need Suggs to light up scoreboards necessarily, yet can't afford a zero on that end either (Cody Martin).

Most likely path is Hornets sign someone like Trent Jr. for money alone, after drafting a 3 & D prospeft like Cody Williams (his brother plays for your team), while Magic back up the truck for Tyus Jones or De'Anthony Melton.

Plenty of teams need point guards though and there's scarcity.

[JustBuzzin]

I think the value is about right, though obviously there’s going to be a range of perspectives on that, but to me this is slightly wrong direction for each team. Orlando is more ready now, Charlotte should take the cheap years and upside.

I'm not looking direction here so much as respective fits.

I believe Magic's missing piece is a pure playmaker and floor general who can dish to Banchero and Franz and also score or command double teams himself.

Nikola Topic would have to be there for me to contemplate this move as Orlando. I acknowledge my bias for Topic. I love him and believe he can become a PG version of fellow countrymen Nik Jokic.

The Hornets really need a 3 & D with NBA size and strength at the 2 to enhance their much improved defense. They don't need Suggs to light up scoreboards necessarily, yet can't afford a zero on that end either (Cody Martin).

Most likely path is Hornets sign someone like Trent Jr. for money alone, after drafting a 3 & D prospeft like Cody Williams (his brother plays for your team), while Magic back up the truck for Tyus Jones or De'Anthony Melton.

Plenty of teams need point guards though and there's scarcity.

Do you view Miller as a SF moving forward?

Not sure but he seems more like a sg because of his frame and lack of strength.

[MasterIchiro]

I think the value is about right, though obviously there’s going to be a range of perspectives on that, but to me this is slightly wrong direction for each team. Orlando is more ready now, Charlotte should take the cheap years and upside.

I'm not looking direction here so much as respective fits.

I believe Magic's missing piece is a pure playmaker and floor general who can dish to Banchero and Franz and also score or command double teams himself.

Nikola Topic would have to be there for me to contemplate this move as Orlando. I acknowledge my bias for Topic. I love him and believe he can become a PG version of fellow countrymen Nik Jokic.

The Hornets really need a 3 & D with NBA size and strength at the 2 to enhance their much improved defense. They don't need Suggs to light up scoreboards necessarily, yet can't afford a zero on that end either (Cody Martin).

Most likely path is Hornets sign someone like Trent Jr. for money alone, after drafting a 3 & D prospeft like Cody Williams (his brother plays for your team), while Magic back up the truck for Tyus Jones or De'Anthony Melton.

Plenty of teams need point guards though and there's scarcity.

Do you view Miller as a SF moving forward?

Not sure but he seems more like a sg because of his frame and lack of strength.

Miller plays strongest at the 3. He can't stop dribble penetration of quick guards like Suggs can. Suggs can stop POA from PG. He could guard the faster backcourt player for LaMelo to take the slower one.

Miller can't do that.

[JeffFosters]

Right idea wrong player.

I wouldn't be mad if we shopped our lottery pick only if we can get a legit wing starter. Miller is a 2 guard because of his build. We need a long athletic sf if we trading that pick.

Have you seen Suggs play? He is a bulldog on point of attack defense and his shooting is coming along nicely. I think he’d be perfect between Miller and Ball.

[tiderulz]

Most likely path is Hornets sign someone like Trent Jr. for money alone, after drafting a 3 & D prospeft like Cody Williams (his brother plays for your team), while Magic back up the truck for Tyus Jones or De'Anthony Melton.

Plenty of teams need point guards though and there's scarcity.

Orlando backs the truck up for Melton? he isnt worth anything like that. definitely not a "floor general". and i would make a play for Jones, but definitely not overpay for a limited 27 yr old that really isnt going to get better

[brackdan70]

Kind of like people are saying, seems the wrong direction for both teams. Value is probably fair I guess…but I wouldn’t do this especially from Orlando perspective.

[Skybox]

Suggs was fifth pick in a loaded draft class and he's just now showing the offensive upside to balance his already elite defensive play and contagious intensity. Last thing ORL needs, imo, is to take a step backward from established contributor to more prospects. Paolo & Franz are ready NOW...I'd prefer to trade ORL's own picks for a guard that fits well with Suggs and is ready to contribute to playoff success immediately.

[Colbinii]

Orlando says no, rather easily.

Jalen Suggs has made steady and consistent improvements in each year in his NBA Career. He has followed a developmental arc similar to how many people thought he would, which was an athlete who wasn't truly a great basketball but had an exceptional IQ and understanding of basketball for how little he played prior to college [More of a high school all-around athlete than solely a basketball prospect]. He has developed his shot, he plays hard and he defends at an extremely high level. Is that alone worth the #4 pick? No, but he has good athletic traits and not only has room for developmental growth throughout his 20's, but also a clear path to developing into a very good NBA player.

If you could guarantee a team a player with the traits and developmental path of Jalen Suggs at #4 or #5 in most drafts, you would take that player 9 times out of 10.

Orlando has no reason to move on from Suggs unless it is the base of a true super-star trade, and the #4 pick in any draft isn't the equivalent of a super-star.

[AaronB]

Orlando hangs up the phone before answering.

Orlando FO then turns out lights and takes another nap.

[Billl]

Orlando says no, rather easily.

If you could guarantee a team a player with the traits and developmental path of Jalen Suggs at #4 or #5 in most drafts, you would take that player 9 times out of 10.

Nah. Almost no team would be happy with that. A top5 pick comes with much higher expectations. He's a nice young role player, but teams drafting top 5 are hoping for a lot more than that. Even if it doesn't always work out, teams are looking for high upside.

[Colbinii]

Orlando says no, rather easily.

If you could guarantee a team a player with the traits and developmental path of Jalen Suggs at #4 or #5 in most drafts, you would take that player 9 times out of 10.

Nah. Almost no team would be happy with that. A top5 pick comes with much higher expectations. He's a nice young role player, but teams drafting top 5 are hoping for a lot more than that. Even if it doesn't always work out, teams are looking for high upside.

"Hope" and "Guarantee a certain level" are not the same.

The average Top 5 pick has a career 48 WS. Players around 48 Career WS and retired/near retired are role players. CJ McCollum, Tristan Thompson, Jeff Green and Mason Plumlee. That's the average player picked at #5. Jalen Suggs doesn't have to improve much to be as good as any of these guys at their best. I think it is very likely Suggs exceeds the careers of these players when all is said and done.

It is important to not overrate top picks in the draft and have realistic expectations for a pick. Hell, go back 1999, here are all the #5 picks. As you can see, one HOF player [Wade], 5 All-Star Players [Garland, Young, Fox, Love, Cousins], the it drops to average to low-end starters [Rubio, Valanciunas, Green, Harris, Richardson, Miller], low-end starters or bench role players [Okoro, Dunn, Felton] and then a bunch of players out of the league or fighting to stay in the league [Hezonja, Exum, Len, Robinson, Williams, Bender, ect].

Pistons Ausar Thompson
Pistons Jaden Ivey
Magic Jalen Suggs
Cavaliers Isaac Okoro
Cavaliers Darius Garland
Mavericks Trae Young
Kings De'Aaron Fox
Timberwolves Kris Dunn
Magic Mario Hezonja
Jazz Dante Exum
Suns Alex Len
Kings Thomas Robinson
Raptors Jonas Valanciunas
Kings DeMarcus Cousins
Timberwolves Ricky Rubio
Grizzlies Kevin Love
Celtics Jeff Green
Hawks Shelden Williams
Bobcats Raymond Felton
Wizards Devin Harris
Heat Dwyane Wade
Nuggets Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Warriors Jason Richardson
Magic Mike Miller
Raptors Jonathan Bender

So yeah, understanding what the actual, expected value of the #5 pick is important to understand before making claims about "swinging for the fences". Having realistic expectations based on expected value is important when we discuss the value of a draft pick and the floor/ceiling/profile of a player like Suggs, who is by all account meeting and/or exceeding the expected value of the #5 pick in a random draft.

[Billl]

Orlando says no, rather easily.

If you could guarantee a team a player with the traits and developmental path of Jalen Suggs at #4 or #5 in most drafts, you would take that player 9 times out of 10.

Nah. Almost no team would be happy with that. A top5 pick comes with much higher expectations. He's a nice young role player, but teams drafting top 5 are hoping for a lot more than that. Even if it doesn't always work out, teams are looking for high upside.

"Hope" and "Guarantee a certain level" are not the same.

No GM thinks they are average. They are getting paid to make better decisions than random luck would dictate. Even if the average player picked at #5 is xyz, they all think they are going to beat that average and value the pick accordingly.

[Colbinii]

Nah. Almost no team would be happy with that. A top5 pick comes with much higher expectations. He's a nice young role player, but teams drafting top 5 are hoping for a lot more than that. Even if it doesn't always work out, teams are looking for high upside.

"Hope" and "Guarantee a certain level" are not the same.

No GM thinks they are average. They are getting paid to make better decisions than random luck would dictate. Even if the average player picked at #5 is xyz, they all think they are going to beat that average and value the pick accordingly.

Okay. And like I said in my detailed response to you, Suggs in on pace to beat the odds of a random #5 pick

I am really confused what you are saying or arguing at this point.

[Mamba4Goat]

Orlando probably says no, losing their Marcus Smart type of tone setter and defensive mad man would hurt too much. The only way that they'd consider it is if they were sky high on Nikola Topic.

[Billl]

"Hope" and "Guarantee a certain level" are not the same.

No GM thinks they are average. They are getting paid to make better decisions than random luck would dictate. Even if the average player picked at #5 is xyz, they all think they are going to beat that average and value the pick accordingly.

Okay. And like I said in my detailed response to you, Suggs in on pace to beat the odds of a random #5 pick

I am really confused what you are saying or arguing at this point.

Suggs is a fine role player, but a disappointment for anyone with a top 5 pick. Not sure why this is confusing to you. Not sure why you can't understand that. Nobody with a top 5 pick is hoping to draft a servicable role player.

[Colbinii]

No GM thinks they are average. They are getting paid to make better decisions than random luck would dictate. Even if the average player picked at #5 is xyz, they all think they are going to beat that average and value the pick accordingly.

Okay. And like I said in my detailed response to you, Suggs in on pace to beat the odds of a random #5 pick

I am really confused what you are saying or arguing at this point.

Suggs is a fine role player, but a disappointment for anyone with a top 5 pick. Not sure why this is confusing to you. Not sure why you can't understand that. Nobody with a top 5 pick is hoping to draft a servicable role player.

But what you are saying doesn't make sense when you look at the data. The expectation of the #5 pick is a role player who is considerably worse than what Jalen Suggs projects as.

So yeah, I would say I would be happy as a Magic Fan that Jalen Suggs is as good as he is. But I have also looked at the analysis of every draft pick over the past 20 years and have a strong statistical backing for what I believe, rather than an emotional mindset about a Top Draft Pick needs to be a star.