NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[HotRocks34]

Looks like a 3 person contest right now.

If healthy, Luka should win the scoring title as well as become the first person in NBA history to have two 32/8/8 seasons (he and MJ have one each now).

Luka has the stats but he needs team wins. I doubt there will be a W tomorrow in Boston.

[Bob8]

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

Debate about Luka's +/- is more or less debate about, who's watching Luka regularly and who's not. No numbers should replace what we're seeing.

On the contrary, if your eye test doesn't line up with the scoreboard (+/-), your eyes are probably missing a lot of what’s going on.

NBA history is full of players who were more “impressive” than they were “good.” Guys like AI, Tmac, Carmelo, and Nique all passed the eye test for millions of fans. None of them seemed to have much of an impact on winning.

The +/- argument against Luka is legitimate. Guys who are actual top 5 players don’t post mediocre impact stats over 5+ year stretches. And if you actually watch him play with a critical eye, it’s not hard to see why. He’s not a good defender, and he makes things worse by constantly arguing with the refs instead of getting back on D. He also doesn’t do much of anything when the ball isn’t in his hands, which negates some of his otherwise terrific offense.

Luka fans might be happy to ignore this stuff as they’re watching him, but the scoreboard doesn’t miss anything.

Players in mediocre teams are all posting great +/-, aren't they?

We should check what players around Mavs' standings are doing.

Curry + 0.5
LeBron + 2.3
AD + 0.1
Fox + 1.6
Sabonis - 0.4


What a shock.

Celtics have all starting lineup with light years better +/-. Should all 5 Celtics players be in All Nba team?

To be honest, the only real shocking thing, or not, is how people believe in some numbers, they don't understand nothing about.

[Bob8]

Not sure what's there to ‘call out’. If you didn't believe in plus-minus patterns before, you shouldn't start just because it looks better for the player you support over a small sample. If you generally believe in plus-minus patterns, a small sample should not override the much larger sample we do have available.

That being said, of course this could be the start of a trend and Luka turning the corner when it comes to plus-minus based impact. So if that proves sustainable over a larger sample, I'm sure that Doc MJ will happily acknowledge that because – unlike some of Luka's fans seem to believe – he's not biased against their favorite player. It's simply too early to override all that could be observed before and, importantly, it also wouldn't mean that the previous data or conclusions were incorrect – it could just mean that Luka has found a way (possibly aided by a renovated roster) to impact the game more or more consistently.

Either way, the recent pattern certainly isn't some kind of ‘gotcha’ moment in the debate about Luka's regular season impact.

Debate about Luka's +/- is more or less debate about, who's watching Luka regularly and who's not. No numbers should replace what we're seeing.

What I see is Euro Harden leading his team to a play in game.

Luka isn’t close to the MVP discussion.

You might check how far away are Mavs from 5th place. (Please don't consider what playing with 30 different starting lineups means.)

[Homerclease]

Debate about Luka's +/- is more or less debate about, who's watching Luka regularly and who's not. No numbers should replace what we're seeing.

What I see is Euro Harden leading his team to a play in game.

Luka isn’t close to the MVP discussion.

You might check how far away are Mavs from 5th place. (Please don't consider what playing with 30 different starting lineups means.)

5th place isn’t exactly the flex you think it is either. I have Luka 5th in the race at the absolute best and would’ve been clearly behind Embiid as well if he made the quota

[Bob8]

What I see is Euro Harden leading his team to a play in game.

Luka isn’t close to the MVP discussion.

You might check how far away are Mavs from 5th place. (Please don't consider what playing with 30 different starting lineups means.)

5th place isn’t exactly the flex you think it is either. I have Luka 5th in the race at the absolute best and would’ve been clearly behind Embiid as well if he made the quota

5th place would be monumental achievement for a team that had 30 different starting lineups and the most used lineup playing only 99 minutes together.

To make things easier, what do you think that Mavs results would be, if 3 best players behind Luka didn't missed around 20 games?

In the end all those numbers mean nothing, it will be funny watching great +/- players and bad +/- players playing in the playoffs.

[Homerclease]

You might check how far away are Mavs from 5th place. (Please don't consider what playing with 30 different starting lineups means.)

5th place isn’t exactly the flex you think it is either. I have Luka 5th in the race at the absolute best and would’ve been clearly behind Embiid as well if he made the quota

5th place would be monumental achievement for a team that had 30 different starting lineups and the most used lineup playing only 99 minutes together.

To make things easier, what do you think that Mavs results would be, if 3 best players behind Luka didn't missed around 20 games?

You’re talking to a Celtics fan. I have no sympathy for having to deal with different starting lineups. We’ve been dealing with that since Tatum entered the league.

As for your question, about the same, because the Mavs aren’t as good as the contenders in the west. There’s no case to put Luka ahead of Jokic, SGA, Giannis or even Tatum.

[Bob8]

5th place isn’t exactly the flex you think it is either. I have Luka 5th in the race at the absolute best and would’ve been clearly behind Embiid as well if he made the quota

5th place would be monumental achievement for a team that had 30 different starting lineups and the most used lineup playing only 99 minutes together.

To make things easier, what do you think that Mavs results would be, if 3 best players behind Luka didn't missed around 20 games?

You’re talking to a Celtics fan. I have no sympathy for having to deal with different starting lineups. We’ve been dealing with that since Tatum entered the league.

As for your question, about the same, because the Mavs aren’t as good as the contenders in the west. There’s no case to put Luka ahead of Jokic, SGA, Giannis or even Tatum.

No reason whatsoever.

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

Comparison is brutal. But ai have to admit, Tatum is s little better FT shooter.

[Homerclease]

5th place would be monumental achievement for a team that had 30 different starting lineups and the most used lineup playing only 99 minutes together.

To make things easier, what do you think that Mavs results would be, if 3 best players behind Luka didn't missed around 20 games?

You’re talking to a Celtics fan. I have no sympathy for having to deal with different starting lineups. We’ve been dealing with that since Tatum entered the league.

As for your question, about the same, because the Mavs aren’t as good as the contenders in the west. There’s no case to put Luka ahead of Jokic, SGA, Giannis or even Tatum.

No reason whatsoever.

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

Comparison is brutal.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-usage-rate-leaders-2024

He should have better stats, leads the league in usage, too bad it doesn’t translate to wins. Otherwise he’d have a case to be more valuable. He’s also strictly a one way player, which is also a reason his stats don’t translate to wins.

[Bob8]

You’re talking to a Celtics fan. I have no sympathy for having to deal with different starting lineups. We’ve been dealing with that since Tatum entered the league.

As for your question, about the same, because the Mavs aren’t as good as the contenders in the west. There’s no case to put Luka ahead of Jokic, SGA, Giannis or even Tatum.

No reason whatsoever.

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

Comparison is brutal.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-usage-rate-leaders-2024

He should have better stats, leads the league in usage, too bad it doesn’t translate to wins. Otherwise he’d have a case to be more valuable. He’s also strictly a one way player, which is also a reason his stats don’t translate to wins.

So you think that scoring a lot more and being more efficient is easier with bigger usage?

You don't think that better teammates help with winning? If not, why players in the best teams have very similar +/-.?

[Homerclease]

No reason whatsoever.

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

Comparison is brutal.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-usage-rate-leaders-2024

He should have better stats, leads the league in usage, too bad it doesn’t translate to wins. Otherwise he’d have a case to be more valuable. He’s also strictly a one way player, which is also a reason his stats don’t translate to wins.

So you think that scoring a lot more and being more efficient is easier with bigger usage?

You don't think that better teammates help with winning? If not, why players in the best teams have very similar +/-.?

I think if Luka was as valuable as you seem to think, the Mavs would win more games and you would make less excuses for why Lukas teams lose

[Bob8]

[*]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-usage-rate-leaders-2024

He should have better stats, leads the league in usage, too bad it doesn’t translate to wins. Otherwise he’d have a case to be more valuable. He’s also strictly a one way player, which is also a reason his stats don’t translate to wins.

So you think that scoring a lot more and being more efficient is easier with bigger usage?

You don't think that better teammates help with winning? If not, why players in the best teams have very similar +/-.?

I think if Luka was as valuable as you seem to think, the Mavs would win more games and you would make less excuses for why Lukas teams lose

Just check lineups he played with. The most used is 99 minutes, 1 player in that lineup was already traded, Celtics didn't want to give him new contract, and other not getting much minutes anymore.

Let's wait for playoffs.

[Homerclease]

So you think that scoring a lot more and being more efficient is easier with bigger usage?

You don't think that better teammates help with winning? If not, why players in the best teams have very similar +/-.?

I think if Luka was as valuable as you seem to think, the Mavs would win more games and you would make less excuses for why Lukas teams lose

Just check lineups he played with. The most used is 99 minutes, 1 player already traded and other not getting mich minutes anymore.

More excuses. Prime James Harden already did this song and dance, won a lot more games too. Euro Harden is a phenomenal player, but not an MVP in my eyes and won’t be until he can actually raise a team to at least a level that resembles a contender

[Bob8]

I think if Luka was as valuable as you seem to think, the Mavs would win more games and you would make less excuses for why Lukas teams lose

Just check lineups he played with. The most used is 99 minutes, 1 player already traded and other not getting mich minutes anymore.

More excuses. Prime James Harden already did this song and dance, won a lot more games too. Euro Harden is a phenomenal player, but not an MVP in my eyes and won’t be until he can actually raise a team to at least a level that resembles a contender

Everything is an excuse. Tatum playing some pretty bad matches in playoffs and not winning anything with the best team in Nba too.

[Homerclease]

Just check lineups he played with. The most used is 99 minutes, 1 player already traded and other not getting mich minutes anymore.

More excuses. Prime James Harden already did this song and dance, won a lot more games too. Euro Harden is a phenomenal player, but not an MVP in my eyes and won’t be until he can actually raise a team to at least a level that resembles a contender

Everything is an excuse. Tatum playing some pretty bad matches in playoffs and not winning anything with the best team in Nba too.

Which has nothing to do with this season.

Also for the past three years the Celtics have imploded the second Tatum stepped off the basketball court. This is the first year they’ve posted a positive net rating with Tatum resting since Tatum was a rookie.

[Bob8]

More excuses. Prime James Harden already did this song and dance, won a lot more games too. Euro Harden is a phenomenal player, but not an MVP in my eyes and won’t be until he can actually raise a team to at least a level that resembles a contender

Everything is an excuse. Tatum playing some pretty bad matches in playoffs and not winning anything with the best team in Nba too.

Which has nothing to do with this season.

Also for the past three years the Celtics have imploded the second Tatum stepped off the basketball court. This is the first year they’ve posted a positive net rating with Tatum resting since Tatum was a rookie.

No, but this has,

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

It's like comparing Ferrari to Fiat.

Celtics have great team though.

[Homerclease]

Everything is an excuse. Tatum playing some pretty bad matches in playoffs and not winning anything with the best team in Nba too.

Which has nothing to do with this season.

Also for the past three years the Celtics have imploded the second Tatum stepped off the basketball court. This is the first year they’ve posted a positive net rating with Tatum resting since Tatum was a rookie.

No, but this has,

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

It's like comparing Ferrari to Fiat.

And still doesn’t win.

[Bob8]

Which has nothing to do with this season.

Also for the past three years the Celtics have imploded the second Tatum stepped off the basketball court. This is the first year they’ve posted a positive net rating with Tatum resting since Tatum was a rookie.

No, but this has,

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

It's like comparing Ferrari to Fiat.

And still doesn’t win.

Fiat is beating Ferrari in production too. Basketball is a team sport, what even MJ and LeBron needed to understand. No team, no winning.

[Homerclease]

No, but this has,

https://stathead.com/tiny/bJs73

It's like comparing Ferrari to Fiat.

And still doesn’t win.

Fiat is beating Ferrari in production too.

Whatever that means.

This is a two horse race between Jokic and SGA, with Giannis and Tatum a good ways back and then a whole group of other guys after that.

[Bob8]

And still doesn’t win.

Fiat is beating Ferrari in production too.

Whatever that means.

This is a two horse race between Jokic and SGA, with Giannis and Tatum a good ways back and then a whole group of other guys after that.

Vegas doesn't agree with you.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/

[Homerclease]

Fiat is beating Ferrari in production too.

Whatever that means.

This is a two horse race between Jokic and SGA, with Giannis and Tatum a good ways back and then a whole group of other guys after that.

Vegas doesn't agree with you.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/

So are you putting your money on Luka?