2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[eminence]

Yeah, Wemby should be ROTY. He's absolutely snatched Chet's chain this year lol

Kind of wild that the second best player on a possible #1 seed in their conference is going to lose ROY to a guy on the last place team in the conference. Not saying it's un-just at all, but going into the year I don't think many people would think Wemby would be a ROY frontrunner if SA was last place in the west.

In general, I have never seen a player on a sub-30-win team receive this much praise. Similarly not saying the praise is undeserved (for the most part), but better players have been pilloried for much less.

Sub 30 is being generous. Sub 20 seems probable.

[Colbinii]

Yeah, Wemby should be ROTY. He's absolutely snatched Chet's chain this year lol

Kind of wild that the second best player on a possible #1 seed in their conference is going to lose ROY to a guy on the last place team in the conference. Not saying it's un-just at all, but going into the year I don't think many people would think Wemby would be a ROY frontrunner if SA was last place in the west.

In general, I have never seen a player on a sub-30-win team receive this much praise. Similarly not saying the praise is undeserved (for the most part), but better players have been pilloried for much less.

I'll share my perspective. I was [am] a huge LeBron supporter and have been fortunate that I grabbed onto him when he was at Vincent St. Mary's and he has lived up--and exceeded--all expectations as a basketball player. He is, without a doubt in my mind, the GOAT [and clearly the GOAT of his generation if you don't believe in GOAT's, yada yada].

Ever since LeBron came in, I never felt like a prospect could or did match him. Durant wasn't the all-around player or defensive player and didn't possess the same brain processing, AD just didn't seem to have "IT" when he was on the Pelicans [and never developed enough offensively], while Curry just can't impact the game in quite enough ways as LeBron and doesn't have the same inevitability [though he is certainly the closest player to LeBron in an all-time sense with clear Top 10 Buzz]. Essentially, every prospect I have seen enter the NBA for 21 seasons, I knew, would never amount to being in the GOAT discussion.

Wembanyama is different. He just is. And that is special, because the only players who had GOAT trajectories since the late 1950s were Wilt/Russell/Kareem/Magic/Bird/Jordan/Shaq/LeBron. Wembanyama is the most phyiscally gifted of the all of them--the way he moves at his size is unreal--it's like someone genetically engineered a basketball player to perfection. But it isn't just the physical profile--which is what most of us saw before the draft--it is the way he carries himself. His determination to win and his competitiveness appears to be the same as LeBron and Jordan where they want to win at all costs, which allows him to have the drive needed to maximize his potential.

[Colbinii]

Kind of wild that the second best player on a possible #1 seed in their conference is going to lose ROY to a guy on the last place team in the conference. Not saying it's un-just at all, but going into the year I don't think many people would think Wemby would be a ROY frontrunner if SA was last place in the west.

In general, I have never seen a player on a sub-30-win team receive this much praise. Similarly not saying the praise is undeserved (for the most part), but better players have been pilloried for much less.

Sub 30 is being generous. Sub 20 seems probable.

I read Sub-30 and thought "Don't they have like 11 wins?"

[eminence]

I feel I've finally found a player I'm going to firmly fall into the 'hater' camp on.

And he's a blast to watch, is arguably the best prospect I've seen (LeBron/Oden), and is already quite good as a rookie.

It's weird.

I actively enjoy Wemby's play, but I'm so far below the consensus I'll constantly wind up on the negative side of any discussion about him.

[AdagioPace]

I feel I've finally found a player I'm going to firmly fall into the 'hater' camp on.

And he's a blast to watch, is arguably the best prospect I've seen (LeBron/Oden), and is already quite good as a rookie.

It's weird.

I actively enjoy Wemby's play, but I'm so far below the consensus I'll constantly wind up on the negative side of any discussion about him.

do you think there's still too much hype relative to what he has shown impact-wise? Curious to hear some different take, especially after 2 convincing months.
I think people are impressed by his skillset and historical uniqueness projecting into the future. That's why positive judgments seem to be on a faster track, despite the atrocious team record.

[Ron Swanson]

I feel I've finally found a player I'm going to firmly fall into the 'hater' camp on.

And he's a blast to watch, is arguably the best prospect I've seen (LeBron/Oden), and is already quite good as a rookie.

It's weird.

I actively enjoy Wemby's play, but I'm so far below the consensus I'll constantly wind up on the negative side of any discussion about him.

The defensive impact he brings is as ridiculous as advertised, but his offense feels destined to forever be overrated based on the youtube/Tik-Tok clips and the "I can't believe he just did that!" moments. Him only taking 27% of his attempts at the rim is obscene. He'll never help his team's offense that way.

[AEnigma]

In general, I have never seen a player on a sub-30-win team receive this much praise. Similarly not saying the praise is undeserved (for the most part), but better players have been pilloried for much less.

Sub 30 is being generous. Sub 20 seems probable.

I read Sub-30 and thought "Don't they have like 11 wins?"

I can read Eminence’s statement two ways (“I have seen players praised this much for sub-30 but not sub-20”), but for yours, that is what makes the sudden change in standards kind-of perplexing for me. Kevin Garnett missed the all-NBA teams entirely in 2006 and 2007, and guys like Bill Simmons have ripped on him for missing the playoffs three years in a row. That is despite the fact like Garnett was never really a “GOAT” candidate among the public! Anthony Davis made the playoffs twice before the Lakers trade; that was absolutely held against him. Luka has been strongly criticised for missing the playoffs last season. Bob Lanier has received and did receive criticism for missing the playoffs in 1978 and 1979. And so on.

Of course I have also seen it weighed against Kareem that he missed the playoffs twice in a row, I have seen it weighed against Wilt for missing in 1963, I have seen it weighed against Lebron (even young Lebron)… but Wemby is on a -10 SRS team (maybe more like a -7 SRS one over this past stretch of play) and nevertheless seems likely to finish as the DPoY runner-up.

Pete Maravich and Tiny Archibald come to mind as guys given substantial benefit of doubt despite missing the playoffs with bad records, with each managing third-place MVP finishes with 35 and 36 wins respectively, but there has always been massive media bias to the league scoring leader, and at least you could say those teams were in a reasonable range of the playoffs.

I think the change in mentality is a good one, and I hope it is retroactively extended to those more criticised players, but even if we grant that Wemby is a totally different alien of a player, the entire experience is giving me some extreme whiplash.

[eminence]

Yep, I generally agree with the disconnecting of individual play from team success (more easily done in the pbp era), Wemby is the first guy I feel like it might be going further than I’m comfortable with.

He’s having a great rookie season, and a good season overall, but there’s not a ton of credit to go around on those Spurs.

[Special_Puppy]

Sub 30 is being generous. Sub 20 seems probable.

I read Sub-30 and thought "Don't they have like 11 wins?"

I can read Eminence’s statement two ways (“I have seen players praised this much for sub-30 but not sub-20”), but for yours, that is what makes the sudden change in standards kind-of perplexing for me. Kevin Garnett missed the all-NBA teams entirely in 2006 and 2007, and guys like Bill Simmons have ripped on him for missing the playoffs three years in a row. That is despite the fact like Garnett was never really a “GOAT” candidate among the public! Anthony Davis made the playoffs twice before the Lakers trade; that was absolutely held against him. Luka has been strongly criticised for missing the playoffs last season. Bob Lanier has received and did receive criticism for missing the playoffs in 1978 and 1979. And so on.

Of course I have also seen it weighed against Kareem that he missed the playoffs twice in a row, I have seen it weighed against Wilt for missing in 1963, I have seen it weighed against Lebron (even young Lebron)… but Wemby is on a -10 SRS team (maybe more like a -7 SRS one over this past stretch of play) and nevertheless seems likely to finish as the DPoY runner-up.

Pete Maravich and Tiny Archibald come to mind as guys given substantial benefit of doubt despite missing the playoffs with bad records, with each managing third-place MVP finishes with 35 and 36 wins respectively, but there has always been massive media bias to the league scoring leader, and at least you could say those teams were in a reasonable range of the playoffs.

I think the change in mentality is a good one, and I hope it is retroactively extended to those more criticised players, but even if we grant that Wemby is a totally different alien of a player, the entire experience is giving me some extreme whiplash.

I think Wemby is being given a lot of slack right now because he is a rookie who came into a terrible situation with a horrendous supporting cast, but i expect people are going to get cynical in like 3 years if the Spurs aren't a 42+ win team

[eminence]

I’m a bit worried about backlash if the Spurs hang around 30 wins for the next season or two. I suppose it comes with the hype.

[eminence]

I feel I've finally found a player I'm going to firmly fall into the 'hater' camp on.

And he's a blast to watch, is arguably the best prospect I've seen (LeBron/Oden), and is already quite good as a rookie.

It's weird.

I actively enjoy Wemby's play, but I'm so far below the consensus I'll constantly wind up on the negative side of any discussion about him.

do you think there's still too much hype relative to what he has shown impact-wise? Curious to hear some different take, especially after 2 convincing months.
I think people are impressed by his skillset and historical uniqueness projecting into the future. That's why positive judgments seem to be on a faster track, despite the atrocious team record.

Generally yes. Obviously there’s a fairly wide range of voices, so some more and less reasonable.

Defensively I think it’s more accurate, I wouldn’t say quite DPOY range, but close to it.

Offensively I think even recent Wemby is still hanging in the average impact range. Which is fine given his age, he’s finding his limits and it’ll benefit him going forward if he learns from it.

[AEnigma]

I read Sub-30 and thought "Don't they have like 11 wins?"

I can read Eminence’s statement two ways (“I have seen players praised this much for sub-30 but not sub-20”), but for yours, that is what makes the sudden change in standards kind-of perplexing for me. Kevin Garnett missed the all-NBA teams entirely in 2006 and 2007, and guys like Bill Simmons have ripped on him for missing the playoffs three years in a row. That is despite the fact like Garnett was never really a “GOAT” candidate among the public! Anthony Davis made the playoffs twice before the Lakers trade; that was absolutely held against him. Luka has been strongly criticised for missing the playoffs last season. Bob Lanier has received and did receive criticism for missing the playoffs in 1978 and 1979. And so on.

Of course I have also seen it weighed against Kareem that he missed the playoffs twice in a row, I have seen it weighed against Wilt for missing in 1963, I have seen it weighed against Lebron (even young Lebron)… but Wemby is on a -10 SRS team (maybe more like a -7 SRS one over this past stretch of play) and nevertheless seems likely to finish as the DPoY runner-up.

Pete Maravich and Tiny Archibald come to mind as guys given substantial benefit of doubt despite missing the playoffs with bad records, with each managing third-place MVP finishes with 35 and 36 wins respectively, but there has always been massive media bias to the league scoring leader, and at least you could say those teams were in a reasonable range of the playoffs.

I think the change in mentality is a good one, and I hope it is retroactively extended to those more criticised players, but even if we grant that Wemby is a totally different alien of a player, the entire experience is giving me some extreme whiplash.

I think Wemby is being given a lot of slack right now because he is a rookie who came into a terrible situation with a horrendous supporting cast, but i expect people are going to get cynical in like 3 years if the Spurs aren't a 42+ win team

I broadly agree, but find me a rookie given this much credit for seemingly not improving the team’s results at all.

Durant and Wiggins won Rookie of the Year on -8 SRS teams that had been gutted by trades, McAdoo and Brand on -9 SRS teams, then MCW on a -10 SRS team. While I suppose I cannot speak for McAdoo, I know none of those other names were anywhere near this celebrated — because there are maybe ten rookies ever who have been more celebrated than Wemby. Again, Wemby is a great rookie, but he is also not so much better than we should just completely overlook how he was put on the worst team in the league and they failed to notably improve. Those ~ten names I had in mind all saw significant spikes in team improvement; Wemby is the only one who apparently did not even need that.

[Special_Puppy]

I feel I've finally found a player I'm going to firmly fall into the 'hater' camp on.

And he's a blast to watch, is arguably the best prospect I've seen (LeBron/Oden), and is already quite good as a rookie.

It's weird.

I actively enjoy Wemby's play, but I'm so far below the consensus I'll constantly wind up on the negative side of any discussion about him.

do you think there's still too much hype relative to what he has shown impact-wise? Curious to hear some different take, especially after 2 convincing months.
I think people are impressed by his skillset and historical uniqueness projecting into the future. That's why positive judgments seem to be on a faster track, despite the atrocious team record.

Generally yes. Obviously there’s a fairly wide range of voices, so some more and less reasonable.

Defensively I think it’s more accurate, I wouldn’t say quite DPOY range, but close to it.

Offensively I think even recent Wemby is still hanging in the average impact range. Which is fine given his age, he’s finding his limits and it’ll benefit him going forward if he learns from it.

Wemby is already a top 30 player in the league by a lot of metrics. That's super good for a 20-year-old rookie. Can only think of 1-2 rookies who had that kind of impact in the past 10 years. Not sure what more do you want

[Special_Puppy]

I can read Eminence’s statement two ways (“I have seen players praised this much for sub-30 but not sub-20”), but for yours, that is what makes the sudden change in standards kind-of perplexing for me. Kevin Garnett missed the all-NBA teams entirely in 2006 and 2007, and guys like Bill Simmons have ripped on him for missing the playoffs three years in a row. That is despite the fact like Garnett was never really a “GOAT” candidate among the public! Anthony Davis made the playoffs twice before the Lakers trade; that was absolutely held against him. Luka has been strongly criticised for missing the playoffs last season. Bob Lanier has received and did receive criticism for missing the playoffs in 1978 and 1979. And so on.

Of course I have also seen it weighed against Kareem that he missed the playoffs twice in a row, I have seen it weighed against Wilt for missing in 1963, I have seen it weighed against Lebron (even young Lebron)… but Wemby is on a -10 SRS team (maybe more like a -7 SRS one over this past stretch of play) and nevertheless seems likely to finish as the DPoY runner-up.

Pete Maravich and Tiny Archibald come to mind as guys given substantial benefit of doubt despite missing the playoffs with bad records, with each managing third-place MVP finishes with 35 and 36 wins respectively, but there has always been massive media bias to the league scoring leader, and at least you could say those teams were in a reasonable range of the playoffs.

I think the change in mentality is a good one, and I hope it is retroactively extended to those more criticised players, but even if we grant that Wemby is a totally different alien of a player, the entire experience is giving me some extreme whiplash.

I think Wemby is being given a lot of slack right now because he is a rookie who came into a terrible situation with a horrendous supporting cast, but i expect people are going to get cynical in like 3 years if the Spurs aren't a 42+ win team

I broadly agree, but find me a rookie given this much credit for seemingly not improving the team’s results at all.

Durant and Wiggins won Rookie of the Year on -8 SRS teams that had been gutted by trades, McAdoo and Brand on -9 SRS teams, then MCW on a -10 SRS team. While I suppose I cannot speak for McAdoo, I know none of those other names were anywhere near this celebrated — because there are maybe ten rookies ever who have been more celebrated than Wemby. Again, Wemby is a great rookie, but he is also not so much better than we should just completely overlook how he was put on the worst team in the league and they failed to notably improve. Those ~ten names I had in mind all saw significant spikes in team improvement; Wemby is the only one who apparently did not even need that.

If anything the Spurs got worse. Their net rating in non-garbage time minutes dropped from -9.4 to -11.3. I think its *probably* due to the Spurs supporting cast. Zach Collins, Cedi Osman, Jeremy Sochan, and Malaki Branham are quite a bit worse than they were in previous years

[AEnigma]

Yeah I am not really blaming Wemby, but when the bar is “transformational rookie”, I do not think he has really met the mark, even factoring a bit for his age. The 2003 Cavaliers added 18-turning-19-year-old Lebron and jumped 6.5 SRS, then another 3 SRS jump the following year. The 1992 Magic added 20-turning-21-year-old Shaq and jumped 8 SRS.

A large part of it is frankly just minutes — most of the all-time top rookies were among the league leaders — but if Wemby needs to be played selectively to stay safely healthy, then that makes him less valuable.

[parsnips33]

It's funny how CP3 comes to the Warriors and immediately starts playing like Draymond lol

How often was he initiating plays out of the post before this year?

[eminence]

do you think there's still too much hype relative to what he has shown impact-wise? Curious to hear some different take, especially after 2 convincing months.
I think people are impressed by his skillset and historical uniqueness projecting into the future. That's why positive judgments seem to be on a faster track, despite the atrocious team record.

Generally yes. Obviously there’s a fairly wide range of voices, so some more and less reasonable.

Defensively I think it’s more accurate, I wouldn’t say quite DPOY range, but close to it.

Offensively I think even recent Wemby is still hanging in the average impact range. Which is fine given his age, he’s finding his limits and it’ll benefit him going forward if he learns from it.

Wemby is already a top 30 player in the league by a lot of metrics. That's super good for a 20-year-old rookie. Can only think of 1-2 rookies who had that kind of impact in the past 10 years. Not sure what more do you want

He's a great rookie and I think can be reasonably compared to any rookie since Duncan. But even the best rookies in the post Duncan era are not all that high in the hierarchy of the entire league.

I would say a full season grade of top 30 for Wemby this season is too high. More recently it's a smaller stretch, but games count at the beginning of the season too.

Heresy to say at this point, but Chet is still my ROY pick.

Victor being an alien benefits him in the xRAPM variants, they can't even begin to comprehend his box-scores (as a reference the box-score portion of Darko ranks Victor as the #2 player in the league). They've just never seen anything like him (and may never again). In the pure scoreboard metrics (wowy, plus-minus, on-off, APM, RAPM) Victor hasn't shown that same level.

[WestGOAT]

I feel I've finally found a player I'm going to firmly fall into the 'hater' camp on.

And he's a blast to watch, is arguably the best prospect I've seen (LeBron/Oden), and is already quite good as a rookie.

It's weird.

I actively enjoy Wemby's play, but I'm so far below the consensus I'll constantly wind up on the negative side of any discussion about him.

The defensive impact he brings is as ridiculous as advertised, but his offense feels destined to forever be overrated based on the youtube/Tik-Tok clips and the "I can't believe he just did that!" moments. Him only taking 27% of his attempts at the rim is obscene. He'll never help his team's offense that way.

I think his impact on offense can get there if Spurs get a legit playmaker. If he gets stronger at his base and improve his stamina, it will also help him establish position in the post more easily and not get pushed out by the likes of Dennis Schröder .

His outside shooting is puzzling. He is shooting way better on pull-up 3s than catch-and-shoot, and even though he mentions that is due to rhythm, I suspect this disparity is due to variance. So I'm definitely not a big fan either of his shot profile, but that should improve if Spurs get him a playmaker and he gets stronger.

Should he become a strong number 2 option on offense, and stay healthy, I think that's probably more than enough to be in the top-3 of league, if not the best in the league in his prime.

That said, I'm actually more impressed with what's Chet has shown this season, even though Wemby projects to be the better player. I don't get why most of the GB is underrating what he has managed to do this season. OKC is just so loaded atm, he'd look even better with more touches.

[Doctor MJ]

Yeah, Wemby should be ROTY. He's absolutely snatched Chet's chain this year lol

Kind of wild that the second best player on a possible #1 seed in their conference is going to lose ROY to a guy on the last place team in the conference. Not saying it's un-just at all, but going into the year I don't think many people would think Wemby would be a ROY frontrunner if SA was last place in the west.

I think the debate is still not settled, but I'll say that if when the two teams meet again Wemby again looks like a considerably stronger player it will be hard not to vote for him.

To be clear: I think Chet clearly has had the lead throughout the season, but Wemby's improving rapidly.

[Colbinii]

I don't view ROY as "who was the most impactful rookie". I did in the past, but I have since moved past that thought-process and instead try to en capture a narrative with awards like ROY.