bigdogdylan5 wrote:eyriq wrote:bigdogdylan5 wrote:It’s tough for a team trying to win. Fultz is more reliable on both ends of the floor than Black right now. He plays defense without fouling as much as Black and he makes quicker and better decisions on offense running the offense. Black shooting over Fultz is not enough to swing the pendulum especially when he is good for 2-3 just head scratching turnovers. I think Black will be good but for winning right now the coach is going to take the experience of Fultz.
I trust Mosley. BUT I suspect it's less about impact on winning and more about politics. I think it is politically easier to play the vets over the rooks.
Fultz does not have an overwhelming advantage on AB in terms of impact on winning. Especially not enough of one to counter the benefits of developing AB. Politics can help explain the Fultz preference.
Might be. Fultz is not making a stink about his playing time and seems to be being a good soldier. Mosley has done a good job of earning trust with all the players. I just think it’s more about experience and trust. With politics and that could be intertwined a bit. So we might be saying similar things.
I was curious to look at the individual impact of Black and Fultz on the same lineups. Turns out they've 'shared' 43 lineups. This is a pretty straightforward approach to "controlling for teammates" to get directly at the impact of AB vs Fultz.
The most common lineup between the two of them is Suggs/Franz/Paolo/WCJ, which has performed better with Fultz than Black by 5.2 points per 100 possessions.
Based on this look you can say that Fultz is maybe better by 1.2 points, but the 95% confidence interval would range from -15 points better for Fultz (yeah right) to 12 points better for AB (obvs)
Several things here, it isn't conclusive that Fultz is better, but this is a very down year for Fultz. To AB's credit, he's also doing pretty darn good for a rookie. Just interesting times.
Lineup |
Net Rating Difference (Black - Fultz) |
Minimum MinutesF. Wagner, J. Suggs, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | -5.2 | 63
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | -33.2 | 13
F. Wagner, G. Bitadze, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | 42.2 | 12
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | 0.1 | 11
J. Ingles, J. Suggs, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | -31.1 | 10
G. Bitadze, J. Ingles, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | -28.4 | 9
C. Anthony, J. Ingles, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | 4.4 | 8
C. Houstan, G. Bitadze, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | -16.3 | 7
F. Wagner, J. Isaac, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | -49.4 | 6
J. Ingles, J. Suggs, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | 73.2 | 5
C. Anthony, C. Okeke, J. Ingles, M. Wagner | 25.3 | 4
G. Harris, J. Suggs, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | -67.2 | 4
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, J. Isaac, W. Carter Jr. | -48.2 | 4
C. Houstan, M. Wagner, P. Banchero, T. Queen | 27.6 | 4
C. Anthony, J. Ingles, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | -28.0 | 4
C. Okeke, J. Suggs, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | 130.4 | 3
F. Wagner, G. Harris, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | 13.9 | 3
C. Anthony, G. Harris, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | 21.2 | 3
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, J. Ingles, M. Wagner | 58.3 | 3
C. Anthony, J. Ingles, J. Isaac, W. Carter Jr. | 8.5 | 2
C. Anthony, J. Suggs, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | 1.3 | 2
G. Harris, J. Ingles, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | 70.0 | 2
C. Anthony, C. Houstan, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | -22.7 | 2
C. Houstan, G. Bitadze, P. Banchero, T. Queen | 73.3 | 2
C. Houstan, J. Suggs, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | -151.7 | 2
C. Anthony, G. Bitadze, J. Ingles, P. Banchero | 125.0 | 2
F. Wagner, J. Suggs, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | 18.3 | 2
C. Anthony, J. Ingles, J. Isaac, M. Wagner | 56.4 | 2
J. Ingles, P. Banchero, T. Queen, W. Carter Jr. | -100.0 | 1
F. Wagner, J. Isaac, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | -76.2 | 1
F. Wagner, J. Isaac, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | -250.0 | 1
C. Anthony, C. Houstan, C. Okeke, M. Wagner | 154.8 | 1
C. Houstan, F. Wagner, J. Suggs, W. Carter Jr. | -53.6 | 1
C. Anthony, G. Harris, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | 90.0 | 1
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, J. Isaac, M. Wagner | -3.6 | 1
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, G. Bitadze, W. Carter Jr. | 33.3 | 1
C. Anthony, C. Okeke, M. Wagner, T. Queen | 117.6 | 1
F. Wagner, G. Harris, M. Wagner, P. Banchero | 195.2 | 0
F. Wagner, G. Harris, J. Isaac, M. Wagner | 83.3 | 0
C. Okeke, G. Bitadze, J. Suggs, P. Banchero | -24.2 | 0
C. Anthony, G. Harris, J. Ingles, M. Wagner | -150.0 | 0
C. Anthony, F. Wagner, G. Harris, M. Wagner | -400.0 | 0
J. Isaac, J. Suggs, P. Banchero, W. Carter Jr. | -140.0 | 0