Hornets offer top-4 for Suggs

[RookieStar]

Naaaah. We discussed this on our board already. He is one of those " we need a kings ransom " to trade him away. Before this season there was a big chance he couldve been traded BUT his development is proceeding better than expected. The 3pt shooting that we have been asking for has been shown.

[AaronB]

No GM thinks they are average. They are getting paid to make better decisions than random luck would dictate. Even if the average player picked at #5 is xyz, they all think they are going to beat that average and value the pick accordingly.

Okay. And like I said in my detailed response to you, Suggs in on pace to beat the odds of a random #5 pick

I am really confused what you are saying or arguing at this point.

Suggs is a fine role player, but a disappointment for anyone with a top 5 pick. Not sure why this is confusing to you. Not sure why you can't understand that. Nobody with a top 5 pick is hoping to draft a servicable role player.

Nope.

Suggs is a stud and the only excuse that you have is not seeing him play. Forget the stat sheet. Watch him play. It is a really satisfying experience.

[Billl]

Okay. And like I said in my detailed response to you, Suggs in on pace to beat the odds of a random #5 pick

I am really confused what you are saying or arguing at this point.

Suggs is a fine role player, but a disappointment for anyone with a top 5 pick. Not sure why this is confusing to you. Not sure why you can't understand that. Nobody with a top 5 pick is hoping to draft a servicable role player.

But what you are saying doesn't make sense when you look at the data. The expectation of the #5 pick is a role player who is considerably worse than what Jalen Suggs projects as.

So yeah, I would say I would be happy as a Magic Fan that Jalen Suggs is as good as he is. But I have also looked at the analysis of every draft pick over the past 20 years and have a strong statistical backing for what I believe, rather than an emotional mindset about a Top Draft Pick needs to be a star.

That's not how "data" works on small sample sizes. The average is essentially meaningless on a sample size of 20, especially when the range is from bust to superstar. And more importantly, it completely ignores the relative costs and benefits of being above or below the average. Hitting on a top 5 pick is franchise changing. Passing up a decent role player is not franchise destroying. Those don't balance out to "average". That's why there is a MASSIVE premium put on draft picks vs known products.

And as a magic fan, I'm sure you are happy your GM didn't trade the #8 pick for a bench player just because the average #8 pick ends up a bench player. And I'm pretty sure you wouldn't trade the chance to snag Paolo even if someone showed you a list of #1 picks that includes ayton, fultz, ben simmon, wiggins, anthony bennet, greg oden, andrea bargani,bogut, and kwami brown.

[Colbinii]

Suggs is a fine role player, but a disappointment for anyone with a top 5 pick. Not sure why this is confusing to you. Not sure why you can't understand that. Nobody with a top 5 pick is hoping to draft a servicable role player.

But what you are saying doesn't make sense when you look at the data. The expectation of the #5 pick is a role player who is considerably worse than what Jalen Suggs projects as.

So yeah, I would say I would be happy as a Magic Fan that Jalen Suggs is as good as he is. But I have also looked at the analysis of every draft pick over the past 20 years and have a strong statistical backing for what I believe, rather than an emotional mindset about a Top Draft Pick needs to be a star.

That's not how "data" works on small sample sizes. The average is essentially meaningless on a sample size of 20, especially when the range is from bust to superstar. And more importantly, it completely ignores the relative costs and benefits of being above or below the average. Hitting on a top 5 pick is franchise changing. Passing up a decent role player is not franchise destroying. Those don't balance out to "average". That's why there is a MASSIVE premium put on draft picks vs known products.

But we have more than 20 picks. At the end of the day, the expected outcome of the #5 pick isn't an All-Star, it is a player who ends a career at 48 WS. Most players around 48 WS never make an all-star game or get close.

And as a magic fan, I'm sure you are happy your GM didn't trade the #8 pick for a bench player just because the average #8 pick ends up a bench player. And I'm pretty sure you wouldn't trade the chance to snag Paolo even if someone showed you a list of #1 picks that includes ayton, fultz, ben simmon, wiggins, anthony bennet, greg oden, andrea bargani,bogut, and kwami brown.

Huh? I don't follow straw-man arguments, sorry.

[Residual-Heat]

Why are you assuming Suggs has already hit his ceiling? He's only 22 and has improved a lot every year. He still could be a late bloomer and break out later in his career like Oladipo did. Will he be as good as Oladipo? Probably not but he still has potential to be much better than he is right now.

[MasterIchiro]

Orlando probably says no, losing their Marcus Smart type of tone setter and defensive mad man would hurt too much. The only way that they'd consider it is if they were sky high on Nikola Topic.

This is where I'm at. And none of us really know where the Magic stand on Topic.

I think they need a floor general who can command double teams himself occasional. Topic is the top playmaker in the draft. Hornets have LaMelo.

[Colbinii]

Orlando probably says no, losing their Marcus Smart type of tone setter and defensive mad man would hurt too much. The only way that they'd consider it is if they were sky high on Nikola Topic.

This is where I'm at. And none of us really know where the Magic stand on Topic.

I think they need a floor general who can command double teams himself occasional. Topic is the top playmaker in the draft. Hornets have LaMelo.

There are plenty of players in this draft who would fit well with the Hornets and their core, but that's par for the course of a team at the beginning of their rebuild.

Charlotte should look at adding as much young, cost controlled talent with upside as possible. Trading the Upside of a Top Pick for Jalen Suggs is poor asset management and utilization.

[aguiar95]

Value wise, ORL should give up more, but direction wise ORL is trending on spending, not selling.

[MasterIchiro]

Orlando probably says no, losing their Marcus Smart type of tone setter and defensive mad man would hurt too much. The only way that they'd consider it is if they were sky high on Nikola Topic.

This is where I'm at. And none of us really know where the Magic stand on Topic.

I think they need a floor general who can command double teams himself occasional. Topic is the top playmaker in the draft. Hornets have LaMelo.

There are plenty of players in this draft who would fit well with the Hornets and their core, but that's par for the course of a team at the beginning of their rebuild.

Charlotte should look at adding as much young, cost controlled talent with upside as possible. Trading the Upside of a Top Pick for Jalen Suggs is poor asset management and utilization.

We will see how the new front office proceeds. We've been the most injured team in the NBA.

Would the Hornets be stuck with their roster after trading a top-5 pick for an elite role player?

I think LaMelo, Suggs, Miller, Miles and Mark all look like players you wouldn't need to upgrade anytime soon given their young age and the expectation of internal improvements.

Further, Hornets have no bad contracts so they're not limited in upgrades requiring cap due to a trade like this one.

After next season, Charlotte also regains control of all of its first round picks for rebuild selections or for star packages. Plus 2 lightly protected picks from other teams that serve the same purposes (bundle or select).

Whether we're talking draft capital, cap, or movable contracts in trades, Charlotte retains flexibility to improve after a trade like this. The starting lineup is solid and the bench is improved.

[Colbinii]

This is where I'm at. And none of us really know where the Magic stand on Topic.

I think they need a floor general who can command double teams himself occasional. Topic is the top playmaker in the draft. Hornets have LaMelo.

There are plenty of players in this draft who would fit well with the Hornets and their core, but that's par for the course of a team at the beginning of their rebuild.

Charlotte should look at adding as much young, cost controlled talent with upside as possible. Trading the Upside of a Top Pick for Jalen Suggs is poor asset management and utilization.

We will see how the new front office proceeds. We've been the most injured team in the NBA.

Yup, fully healthy maybe the Hornets were a worse version of the Atlanta Hawks?

Would the Hornets be stuck with their roster after trading a top-5 pick for an elite role player?

Yes. LaMelo Extension + Suggs Extension + Miles Extension.

I think LaMelo, Suggs, Miller, Miles and Mark all look like players you wouldn't need to upgrade anytime soon given their young age and the expectation of internal improvements.

Yes and no. The issue is there is no Top 15-20 player here. Even if Miller somehow hits his 99% outcome and becomes around Tatum Level [Top 10-ish player], the rest of the roster all need to hit super high for them to be considered serious contenders.

If Charlotte fans simply want a taste of success and end up like Sacramento, then they could trade the pick for a Suggs type, but I would want to aim higher than Suggs. Sacramento traded a young player [a la #4/#5 pick in the draft] for Domantas Sabonis, an All-Star talent. Suggs isn't an all-star talent.

I think it makes so much more sense for Charlotte to draft BPA this year, see what they have with Healthy LaMelo, Sophomore Miller [He will be 22 next year so we should start seeing some glimpses of what his "prime" could be], Mark Williams looking like a starting caliber Center and Miles Bridges [What does his contract even look like? Is he getting 4/120 or 3/120?].

We will see more after the draft, but I would be shocked if Charlotte traded a pick in the high lottery for a role player like Suggs.

[A BETTER DJ]

Suggs is a rare degree of lock down defender and his shot is coming along very nicely. In last night's game he hit 3 consecutive 3s to open a solid lead in the 4th and secure the win. He's part of our core. The Magic need a starting PG, but we are not giving up our core to get one. We have cap space and picks to work with.

[MasterIchiro]

Suggs is a rare degree of lock down defender and his shot is coming along very nicely. In last night's game he hit 3 consecutive 3s to open a solid lead in the 4th and secure the win. He's part of our core. The Magic need a starting PG, but we are not giving up our core to get one. We have cap space and picks to work with.

But if you consider a starting PG a core piece then you'd have to at least listen. You'd be swapping one core piece for another core piece.

[jibba jones]

Orlando needs more nationally televised games.

[louc1970]

Right idea wrong player.

I wouldn't be mad if we shopped our lottery pick only if we can get a legit wing starter. Miller is a 2 guard because of his build. We need a long athletic sf if we trading that pick.

If Miller is the 2, is Bridges the 3, so the need is a 4 (hybrid)?
Or are you seeing Bridges as a 4?

[AaronB]

Suggs is not on the market.

[JustBuzzin]

Right idea wrong player.

I wouldn't be mad if we shopped our lottery pick only if we can get a legit wing starter. Miller is a 2 guard because of his build. We need a long athletic sf if we trading that pick.

If Miller is the 2, is Bridges the 3, so the need is a 4 (hybrid)?
Or are you seeing Bridges as a 4?

Yes I see Bridges as a 4 who can play the 3 on occasion.

Bridges doesn't have the ball handling ability to be a true 3 imo.

[orlando_joe]

Orlando needs more nationally televised games.

ding ding ding

[Ducklett]

I guess I weight how good a player is on defense differently than many here. There is probably only 3-5 better defenders in the league than Suggs.

[VFX]

Orlando needs more nationally televised games.

This is also my takeaway from this thread.