NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[yannisk]

I don't know what this means? Jokic grabs more rebounds in less minutes and has a higher TRB% at both ends. A counter argument of "well Giannis could get more rebounds if he wanted to" isn't really quantifiable.

fair enough

Jokic would comfortably score 30+ per game if he really wanted to

It is quite "quantifiable" that Giannis scores more on better efficiency

[QPR]

It is quite "quantifiable" that Giannis scores more on better efficiency

He certainly scores more and he gets to the line a lot more. The difference in their respective scoring efficiency is negligible though. Giannis being a poor FT shooter and having no outside game hurts him here, but he's definitely an inside force.

[Crunch 99]

Feb 23. In the recent past all winners have been 1st (some 2nd) in WS/48. SGA and Jokic are battling in out for 1st. There is a big gap between them and Giannis and Luka.

Giannis and Luka will have to win 3-4 more games than SGA/Jokic to have a chance.

Update:
1. Jokic .301
2. SGA .300
3. * Embiid .279
4. Giannis .256
5. Porzingis .228
6. Doncic .227
* Ineligible.

Edit: I just noticed that 2023 MVP Embiid was a distant #3 to Jokic, so I am not certain how well this stat corresponds to winners, though #2 Butler only played 64 games.
2023 WS/48: 1. Jokic .308, 2. Butler .277, 3. Embiid .259, 4. SGA .226

[Cubbies2120]

Jokic a better rebounder? Maybe in the same way Westbrook was a good rebounder.

Can't believe you wrote this. While Westbrook was stat-padding his rebounds, with his teammates letting him grab the ball all the time, Jokic is a center whose job is to rebound, he's the tallest guy on the team and he's incredibly talented when it comes to positioning around the basket.

Yep, Jokic is 3rd in the league in contested rebounds per game, behind Robinson and AD.

The comparison to Westbrook was laughable considering Jokic averages like 3x the contested rebounds Russ had in his MVP season where people boxed out for him to get boards.

Laughable comparison and tells us what we need to know about how much he watches Jokic.

43% of Jokic’s boards are contested, 32% of Giannis’s are.

Even more hilarious is the claim that Giannis lets his teammates get more boards but Jokic is 4th in league in deferred rebounds (gave them up to teammate) while Giannis is 47th. That argument completely falls apart

[Exp0sed]

Giannis is a better scorer? Someone said? Really?

Jokic this season shooting 60% on hooks 62% on floaters 56%(!!!) on 2s (outside the post) 58%(!!!) on turnaround Js

His skillsets and physicality along with his playmaking make defense helpless.

I'd put Luka and SGA 2nd and 3rd. Giannis isn't even top 5 IMO and clearly behind Embiid.

Ay yes, Jokic, who most teams prefer to have him score than playmake in order to win as most times than not he can't beat you by himself. Over Giannis, which teams are literally building walls of players to stop him from scoring, because in a lot of situations his teammates cannot convert wide open shots.

The walls are effective not because his teammates are bricking shots, they're because he's not a good enough playmaker and beacause his jumpshot is limited and unreliable

Build a wall for Jokic and watch him just shoot over the wall..

Giannis jumpshot has def improved but obviously it's still below average

Jokic can't be contained in the paint and neither can Giannis the difference is Jokic's passing, shot-making, situational awareness and I.Q

In reality because blitsing, doubling, building a wall etc are ineffective vs Jokic - he gets to play with more space than Giannis and that's precisely why Jokic is a better scorer, duh

This isnt 1 v 1 in the park
Even the biggest Jokic fan would agree Giannis would cook Jokic 1 on 1, right?

But this is 5 v 5 NBA basketball and in these settings - Jokic is simply a better scorer

I honestly can't see an argument to the contrary as we have so much data on both of them, rs and playoffs





Sent from my SM-A115F using RealGM mobile app

[Cubbies2120]

I don't know what this means? Jokic grabs more rebounds in less minutes and has a higher TRB% at both ends. A counter argument of "well Giannis could get more rebounds if he wanted to" isn't really quantifiable.

fair enough

Jokic would comfortably score 30+ per game if he really wanted to

It is quite "quantifiable" that Giannis scores more on better efficiency

When he’s driving, sure.

Any other scenario, literally any other scenario, this is not true. That’s why teams were able to build a simple “wall” to throw him off his game. Stop the drive and you stop Giannis.

Back to basket - Jokic
Mid range - Jokic
Free throw - Jokic
Three pointer - Jokic

This is quantifiable over multiple years. Giannis has a HORRENDOUS drop off from outside of 3 feet.

Giannis 0-3 Feet: 82%
Giannis 3-10 Feet: 43%(!)
Giannis 10-16 Feet: 36% (!)

Jokic 0-3 Feet: 75%
Jokic 3-10 Feet: 63%
Jokic 10-16 Feet: 56%

Jokic shot in the playoffs a better % from 3 last year than Giannis did ANYWHERE outside of 3 feet this year. Hope that helps put in perspective the difference in offensive scoring talent.

[yannisk]

I don't know what this means? Jokic grabs more rebounds in less minutes and has a higher TRB% at both ends. A counter argument of "well Giannis could get more rebounds if he wanted to" isn't really quantifiable.

fair enough

Jokic would comfortably score 30+ per game if he really wanted to

It is quite "quantifiable" that Giannis scores more on better efficiency

When he’s driving, sure.

Any other scenario, literally any other scenario, this is not true. That’s why teams were able to build a simple “wall” to throw him off his game. Stop the drive and you stop Giannis.

Back to basket - Jokic
Mid range - Jokic
Free throw - Jokic
Three pointer - Jokic

This is quantifiable over multiple years. Giannis has a HORRENDOUS drop off from outside of 3 feet.

Giannis 0-3 Feet: 82%
Giannis 3-10 Feet: 43%(!)
Giannis 10-16 Feet: 36% (!)

Jokic 0-3 Feet: 75%
Jokic 3-10 Feet: 63%
Jokic 10-16 Feet: 56%

Jokic shot in the playoffs a better % from 3 last year than Giannis did ANYWHERE outside of 3 feet this year. Hope that helps put in perspective the difference in offensive scoring talent.

This is the thread for the MVP race this year. We are looking at the stats of regular season 23/24, Domantas Sabonis maybe is similarly better than Giannis in all distances but 0-3 ft. Would you say he has been better scorer than Giannis in the 2023/24 regular season as well? If I give you a player being better in all distances but 3p from Curry would you do the same? Not to mention Shaq that i can find a gazillion of players better in a number of distances.

so let's go to the extreme, compare Jokic with Giannis's teammate Brook Lopez

0-3 feet Jokic 75% Brook 78% Brook wins
3-10 Jokic 63% Brook 43%
10-16 Jokic 56% Brook 45%
16-3p Jokic 38% Brook 61% Brook wins
3p Jokic 34% Brook 35% Brook wins yet again

FT Jokic 82% Brook 84% so he is also better in free throws

So even though Brook may appear to score better for a number of distances nobody seriously would say he has been a better scorer than Jokic this year because Jokic for whatever reason scored more and more efficiently. This metric is enough because it encompasses everything

so while all you say are true, i think you are going in a detail that is not part of the 2023/24 mvp discussion. In the context of this discussion for example we say advantage Jokic on rebounds because he gets 12 and Giannis gets 11 we don't discuss if player A gets easy rebounds or long rebounds or more uncontested ones etc

[Wolfgang630]

Another big game for Jokic against a Lakers team that tons of people and media were watching for Lebrons 40K points. This game had a lot of meaning on it because the media promoted it so much. It’ll make Jokic mvp look even better because of the circumstances of the game.

[Genjuro]

How does SGA have better footwork and body control than Jokic?? Jokic’s BBIQ is greater. Also controlling the game is definitely advantage to Jokic as he control literally the whole offense of the Nuggets.

So for body control it is a significant gap. SGA is enormously more dexterous and agile, and his movement patterns are gliding, slithering and sharp and he has a better ability to contort his body and pivot to new movements. Jokic's lack of speed and flexibility punish him here. His movements are still fairly smooth, but once he makes a movement he has to commit to it far more.

With footwork, this is closer. Jokic is able to dazzle with challenging spin moves, beautiful pirouettes and moves his feet with excellent anticipation. SGA also has excellent anticipation with his footwork, but is better able to shift his feet side to side. His footwork also allows for absolutely devastating deceleration and vicious turn arounds. SGA can also make the same spin moves as Jokic while moving at a higher speed, but he doesn't do the pirouettes. Both are excellent using their pivot foot, Jokic with the pirouettes to flummox opposing centers, while SGA does a lot of fake spins to offset defenders.

I'm pretty sure SGA has better body control than Jokic. Perhaps footwork, I don't know. The thing is, the huge difference in size makes Jokic's body control more valuable than SGA's. Same for footwork.

Anyway, both are leading the MVP race. Leaning Jokic right now, though.

[DCasey91]

It’s interesting the schemes the Lakers used against Jokic but I think it’ll be put to rest if they meet in the playoffs.

Best practise is AD front and Lebron help but the problem is Murray is too shifty on the perimeter and Gordon will bully ball/sneak in for the lob.

It really is hard to see anyone combat the combo when arguably the best team equipped against the duo gets smashed because Jokic is the offensive version of Neo in the Matrix.

[Packbuckman]

It’s interesting the schemes the Lakers used against Jokic but I think it’ll be put to rest if they meet in the playoffs.

Best practise is AD front and Lebron help but the problem is Murray is too shifty on the perimeter and Gordon will bully ball/sneak in for the lob.

It really is hard to see anyone combat the combo when arguably the best team equipped against the duo gets smashed because Jokic is the offensive version of Neo in the Matrix.

The bucks are the best team to match that duo with dame Giannis Lopez Pat B but in west I say Minnesota with their size.

[Infinite Llamas]

Giannis efficiency is not talked about enough
The last time he shot under 50% from the fg was Jan 22nd.
He only shot under 50% from the fg 8 times this season with 59 games played
He shot over 60%, 34 times and he average more than 30 points per game this season !!
What else does he have to do for MVP recognition?

People stopped caring about efficiency when Embiid won last year. Because Jokic shot over 50% in 66 out of 69 games played.

[Infinite Llamas]

Jokic having the 2nd highest AST% and 3rd highest USG% of his career whilst having the lowest TO% he’s ever had is wild to me.

[Duke4life831]

Jokic is at the part of his peak where if he wants/needs the MVP, no one can prevent him from getting it.

Jokic is in a different spot than most guy’s previously who have been in similar situations. Usually after winning multiple MVPs and a ring, their focus is on saving themselves for the playoffs. They still put up great numbers in the regular season, but it’s not quite at their MVP level, and they tend to have other all star/all NBA teammates to fall back on.

Jokic really doesn’t have that teammate to fall back on. If Jokic coasts during the regular season, Denver will slip down the standings. And Denver really wants that #1 seed in the West.

No shot to any other player right now, I just think the gap between Jokic and the next best player is big enough where, if Jokic plays hard and doesn’t coast and Denver gets the #1 seed. I really don’t see any other argument for another player for MVP.

[ty 4191]

When he’s driving, sure.

Any other scenario, literally any other scenario, this is not true. That’s why teams were able to build a simple “wall” to throw him off his game. Stop the drive and you stop Giannis.

Back to basket - Jokic
Mid range - Jokic
Free throw - Jokic
Three pointer - Jokic

This is quantifiable over multiple years. Giannis has a HORRENDOUS drop off from outside of 3 feet.

Giannis 0-3 Feet: 82%
Giannis 3-10 Feet: 43%(!)
Giannis 10-16 Feet: 36% (!)

Jokic 0-3 Feet: 75%
Jokic 3-10 Feet: 63%
Jokic 10-16 Feet: 56%

Jokic shot in the playoffs a better % from 3 last year than Giannis did ANYWHERE outside of 3 feet this year. Hope that helps put in perspective the difference in offensive scoring talent.

Speaking of insane efficiency? Jokic is, perhaps, the greatest shooter in NBA history. From 15 feet and in, at least, and his FG% from midrange in is, frankly, insane.

Cubbies, you'll appreciate this:

Since 1996-1997, FG%, 5-10 feet, min 2000 attempts:



That's FOUR standard deviations above the mean, incidentally. There are 45 players on the list, total.

10-15 feet, last 27 seasons, 1000+ FGA:

[DutchManDanFan]

When he’s driving, sure.

Any other scenario, literally any other scenario, this is not true. That’s why teams were able to build a simple “wall” to throw him off his game. Stop the drive and you stop Giannis.

Back to basket - Jokic
Mid range - Jokic
Free throw - Jokic
Three pointer - Jokic

This is quantifiable over multiple years. Giannis has a HORRENDOUS drop off from outside of 3 feet.

Giannis 0-3 Feet: 82%
Giannis 3-10 Feet: 43%(!)
Giannis 10-16 Feet: 36% (!)

Jokic 0-3 Feet: 75%
Jokic 3-10 Feet: 63%
Jokic 10-16 Feet: 56%

Jokic shot in the playoffs a better % from 3 last year than Giannis did ANYWHERE outside of 3 feet this year. Hope that helps put in perspective the difference in offensive scoring talent.

Speaking of insane efficiency? Jokic is, perhaps, the greatest shooter in NBA history. From 15 feet and in, at least, and his FG% from midrange in is, frankly, insane.

Cubbies, you'll appreciate this:

Since 1996-1997, FG%, 5-10 feet, min 2000 attempts:



That's FOUR standard deviations above the mean, incidentally. There are 45 players on the list, total.

10-15 feet, last 27 seasons, 1000+ FGA:

What you argue here is Jokic is a very smart player, not taking many bad shots. It doesn't make him a better player above someone who takes more and therefore more difficult/bad shots but scores more points.

[Exp0sed]

Jokic is at the part of his peak where if he wants/needs the MVP, no one can prevent him from getting it.

Jokic is in a different spot than most guy’s previously who have been in similar situations. Usually after winning multiple MVPs and a ring, their focus is on saving themselves for the playoffs. They still put up great numbers in the regular season, but it’s not quite at their MVP level, and they tend to have other all star/all NBA teammates to fall back on.

Jokic really doesn’t have that teammate to fall back on. If Jokic coasts during the regular season, Denver will slip down the standings. And Denver really wants that #1 seed in the West.

No shot to any other player right now, I just think the gap between Jokic and the next best player is big enough where, if Jokic plays hard and doesn’t coast and Denver gets the #1 seed. I really don’t see any other argument for another player for MVP.

I think that while rs Murray isn't as good as playoff Murray, he's plenty to "fall back on" and MPJ does his part as well, so does AG
the real issue during Jokic's peak has been the bench

Nuggets have been consistely crushing the Jokic mins and get decimiated when he sits. that's the reason he can't go on full coasting mode (otherwise the Nuggets rack up losses) and not because of the lack of a secondary star

however I think ur selling him a bit short here - he is, coasting. not as much as other superstars in the past and not as much as would be optimal but he is def coasting (mostly on D but also on O)

morever, if he cared about MVP, wanted or needed it - he could easily go and get it
I mean he could just take a month and really try to score and take more shots, he'd avg 37 for a month and all his naysayers would be gushing lol. he could demand the ball much more. so many Nuggets PNR's or DHO end up in the hands of Murray because Jokic loves it when everyone shares and geniunely doesn't care about his shots or his points

take yesterday's game for examle, the Nuggets obviously wanted the W very much for seeding reasons but the 40k in L.A..obviously there's plenty of added motivation there. the game starts and Ham is going with his series coverage, Rui on Jokic with AD helping and lurking and Jokic immedietly attacks the mismatch.

now let's say Ham moves away from it a min later and starts doubling more - then Jokic starts spraying to shooters and cutters. let's say he puts AD (their defensive anchor and rim protector) on Jokic - then Jokic uses that to take AD out of the play and set up others

since Ham stayed with that coverage , Jokic kept attacking and shooting
it's like he planned to come out yesterday more heavy on the shooting and scoring side it's just how he read the game and employed what he felt would be the best strategy. it has nothing to do with MVP, he'll go right back to being less aggressive the next game if the situation would call for it

that's how I see it anyway

[HadAnEffectHere]

It's Jokic vs. Giannis vs. SGA with no real other options.

[Cubbies2120]

When he’s driving, sure.

Any other scenario, literally any other scenario, this is not true. That’s why teams were able to build a simple “wall” to throw him off his game. Stop the drive and you stop Giannis.

Back to basket - Jokic
Mid range - Jokic
Free throw - Jokic
Three pointer - Jokic

This is quantifiable over multiple years. Giannis has a HORRENDOUS drop off from outside of 3 feet.

Giannis 0-3 Feet: 82%
Giannis 3-10 Feet: 43%(!)
Giannis 10-16 Feet: 36% (!)

Jokic 0-3 Feet: 75%
Jokic 3-10 Feet: 63%
Jokic 10-16 Feet: 56%

Jokic shot in the playoffs a better % from 3 last year than Giannis did ANYWHERE outside of 3 feet this year. Hope that helps put in perspective the difference in offensive scoring talent.

Speaking of insane efficiency? Jokic is, perhaps, the greatest shooter in NBA history. From 15 feet and in, at least, and his FG% from midrange in is, frankly, insane.

Cubbies, you'll appreciate this:

Since 1996-1997, FG%, 5-10 feet, min 2000 attempts:



That's FOUR standard deviations above the mean, incidentally. There are 45 players on the list, total.

10-15 feet, last 27 seasons, 1000+ FGA:

What you argue here is Jokic is a very smart player, not taking many bad shots. It doesn't make him a better player above someone who takes more and therefore more difficult/bad shots but scores more points.

- "Grenade shots" are the worst shots in basketball [Receiving the ball with 2 secs or less in the shot clock]
- Through 2023, over a 10 season sample (even though Jokic only played 8 seasons of the 10 season sample size, he was 2nd in the league over that timespan in grenade shots attempted

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/35645800/inside-nba-unwritten-rule-passing-ball-seconds-left-clock

So he took a lot of, by definition, bad shots because his teammates got it to him in the last 2 seconds.

Jokic also has less spots on the floor that are 'bad shots', whereas for Giannis, pretty much anything outside of 3 feet is a 'bad shot' [the stats back this up].

[ty 4191]

What you argue here is Jokic is a very smart player, not taking many bad shots. It doesn't make him a better player above someone who takes more and therefore more difficult/bad shots but scores more points.

It does make Jokic more valuable, actually. TS Added tells the truth with volume + efficiency.

TS Added is the cumulative number of points above league average true shooting that a player has contributed in a season. A league average shooter will be a 0. The stat takes into account efficiency (since the more efficient you are, the more positive your number will be), volume (since high efficiency won't result in a high number without corresponding volume) and corrects for era by using the league average of a given year. In terms of pure scoring ability, I can't think of another stat that does a better job of balancing volume, efficiency and era.

Last 4 seasons, if you go solely by PPG, the leaders are:

1. Giannis: 30.0
2. Tatum: 27.7
3. Trae Young: 26.6
4. Jokic: 26.0

Sorted by TS Added:

1. Jokic: +958.4
2. Giannis: +666.8
3. Tatum: +212.2
4. Young: +150.4

You might find this interesting, also. As you can see, it's already indexed to league averages so all eras and positions are represented.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cZKyz688S74yyo8Dy4T5vuAkIXZggKJK6QdiUnQqSx8/edit#gid=266732662

I'd particularly point to the "Per 82 Games" Tab (all time leaders).

Efficiency matters. A ton. This is why someone like Kobe Bryant, for all his volume scoring, is only 69th all time in TS Added Per 82 games. He was incredibly inefficient and that is directly accounted for.