NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[Cubbies2120]

fair enough



It is quite "quantifiable" that Giannis scores more on better efficiency

When he’s driving, sure.

Any other scenario, literally any other scenario, this is not true. That’s why teams were able to build a simple “wall” to throw him off his game. Stop the drive and you stop Giannis.

Back to basket - Jokic
Mid range - Jokic
Free throw - Jokic
Three pointer - Jokic

This is quantifiable over multiple years. Giannis has a HORRENDOUS drop off from outside of 3 feet.

Giannis 0-3 Feet: 82%
Giannis 3-10 Feet: 43%(!)
Giannis 10-16 Feet: 36% (!)

Jokic 0-3 Feet: 75%
Jokic 3-10 Feet: 63%
Jokic 10-16 Feet: 56%

Jokic shot in the playoffs a better % from 3 last year than Giannis did ANYWHERE outside of 3 feet this year. Hope that helps put in perspective the difference in offensive scoring talent.

This is the thread for the MVP race this year. We are looking at the stats of regular season 23/24, Domantas Sabonis maybe is similarly better than Giannis in all distances but 0-3 ft. Would you say he has been better scorer than Giannis in the 2023/24 regular season as well? If I give you a player being better in all distances but 3p from Curry would you do the same? Not to mention Shaq that i can find a gazillion of players better in a number of distances.

so let's go to the extreme, compare Jokic with Giannis's teammate Brook Lopez

0-3 feet Jokic 75% Brook 78% Brook wins
3-10 Jokic 63% Brook 43%
10-16 Jokic 56% Brook 45%
16-3p Jokic 38% Brook 61% Brook wins
3p Jokic 34% Brook 35% Brook wins yet again

FT Jokic 82% Brook 84% so he is also better in free throws

So even though Brook may appear to score better for a number of distances nobody seriously would say he has been a better scorer than Jokic this year because Jokic for whatever reason scored more and more efficiently. This metric is enough because it encompasses everything

so while all you say are true, i think you are going in a detail that is not part of the 2023/24 mvp discussion. In the context of this discussion for example we say advantage Jokic on rebounds because he gets 12 and Giannis gets 11 we don't discuss if player A gets easy rebounds or long rebounds or more uncontested ones etc

- My comparison was for 2023-2024 stats only
- Lets discuss the rebounds as well - Jokic is 3rd in the league in contested rebounds per game, while being 4th in league in deferred rebounds [Giving up rebounds to teammates]. Giannis is 20th in contested rebounds per game, and 47th in deferred rebounds [meaning he gives up less rebounds to teammates than Jokic does, significantly]. So that '1 rpg difference' means a lot more when you consider Jokic is getting 1.7 more contested rebounds per game than Giannis. Giannis gets the uncontested ones very well though!

[DrModesty]

Shai with 35/9/8 plus 3 steals and 3 blocks including one on Durant with a minute to go and the game still live.

[5IVE5TAR5]

This shai kid is impressing me ... Did okc take the 1st seed tonight?

[HotRocks34]

Jokic maintains his edge in what is currently a two person contest.

Denver is 6-0 since the All Star break. Jokic has 4 triple doubles in that streak.

[Mavrelous]

Nate Duncan and Danny Leraux ranked MVP in their awards podcast:
Tier 1:
Jokic
SGA
Tier 2:
Giannis
Luka
Tier 3
Brunson (Danny)/Kawhi (Nate)

1 and 2 were very close for them so it's still very much open.

[HotRocks34]

I don't think either Matt Moore or Danny Leroux, who did the tier podcast, are NBA MVP voters.

The ESPN straw poll does seem to include actual MVP voters and the poll three weeks ago had Jokic up over Shai 69-24 in first place votes.

Since the last poll, the standings have changed slightly (Denver stayed around third; OKC now in first and before they were second) but not much.

Given the results of the straw poll, the current odds and the fact that SGA's odds never have been better than Jokic's even when OKC was in first before it seems Jokic is in command.

SGA could still win but it might take a Denver collapse or Jokic injury to bring that about.

OKC won the season series 3-1 but Denver only had its full starting unit in one of those games, the game it won. OKC had its complete starting lineup in 3/4 games and was 2-1 in those games.

The current race looks like 2012 IMO when LeBron won the award with the fourth best league record and second best conference record. Denver currently has the fourth best league record and third best conference record.

Best record seems to matter more in MVP voting when it's best record in the league rather than conference ("best player on the best team" argument). Such a mark helped Rose win his trophy and helped Nash win his first. SGA does not presently enjoy that advantage and seems unlikely to gain it with Boston around.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Not sure why the betting markets matter, they aren’t talking to the voters anymore than the rest of us.

That was another statement game I have SGA in the drivers seat.

[CD_41]

Not sure why the betting markets matter, they aren’t talking to the voters anymore than the rest of us.

That was another statement game I have SGA in the drivers seat.

Well, they do take historical (voting) context into their calculations and are usually pretty spot on.
The MVP race is close and it shows in the odds as well.

[MyTake_1]

Not sure why the betting markets matter, they aren’t talking to the voters anymore than the rest of us.

That was another statement game I have SGA in the drivers seat.

Their odds are a reflection of what those that bet think.
To be fair, it is a far more objective opinion than what you or I think individually.

[SlovenianDragon]

SGA is the MVP....

Jokic still the best player in the world...

Ez...

[Exp0sed]

SGA is the MVP....

Jokic still the best player in the world...

Ez...

they're both been immense and honestly are neck to neck, I could see arguments for either
I don't think the Nuggets are likely to repeat (tho they will have a chance, if healthy) but it would be glorious if SGA would win MVP and Jokic would go on to lead his team to another title

25 years later, Realgmers born in 2040 would try to examine this stretch of last few years an will be like: "dafuq?!"
failing to understand how the best player in the world got back to back MVPs and then was randomly slighted two years in a row, despite winning a ring in a Dirk-esque fashion in between

fwiw, SGA is right up there with him so it wouldn't be like last year where it was flat out wrong but still, it'd be pretty wild it it played out that way

[hardenASG13]

SGA is the MVP....

Jokic still the best player in the world...

Ez...

they're both been immense and honestly are neck to neck, I could see arguments for either
I don't think the Nuggets are likely to repeat (tho they will have a chance, if healthy) but it would be glorious if SGA would win MVP and Jokic would go on to lead his team to another title

25 years later, Realgmers born in 2040 would try to examine this stretch of last few years an will be like: "dafuq?!"
failing to understand how the best player in the world got back to back MVPs and then was randomly slighted two years in a row, despite winning a ring in a Dirk-esque fashion in between

fwiw, SGA is right up there with him so it wouldn't be like last year where it was flat out wrong but still, it'd be pretty wild it it played out that way

The best player in the league has been passed on for MVP quite a bit historically, I'm not sure why this instance would be wild.

Also lol at the dirk-esque style title. They played nobody. Dirk led his team over OKC and the Heatles with prime LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Denver beat an old Lakers team that wasn't great last year and isn't this year, because there were weak 2/3 seeds out west, and an 8 seed Miami without one of their top players, with maybe one top 10 guy in Butler. They were relying on Kyle Lowry to create and make big shots. And if you're going to say Butler is a top player because of how he elevates in the playoffs, then Jokic had a top player on his team as well in Murray. Murray's playoff numbers 26/7/6 were basically identical to Butlers 27/6/6.

[Exp0sed]

SGA is the MVP....

Jokic still the best player in the world...

Ez...

they're both been immense and honestly are neck to neck, I could see arguments for either
I don't think the Nuggets are likely to repeat (tho they will have a chance, if healthy) but it would be glorious if SGA would win MVP and Jokic would go on to lead his team to another title

25 years later, Realgmers born in 2040 would try to examine this stretch of last few years an will be like: "dafuq?!"
failing to understand how the best player in the world got back to back MVPs and then was randomly slighted two years in a row, despite winning a ring in a Dirk-esque fashion in between

fwiw, SGA is right up there with him so it wouldn't be like last year where it was flat out wrong but still, it'd be pretty wild it it played out that way

The best player in the league has been passed on for MVP quite a bit historically, I'm not sure why this instance would be wild.

Also lol at the dirk-esque style title. They played nobody. Dirk led his team over OKC and the Heatles with prime LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Denver beat an old Lakers team that wasn't great last year and isn't this year, because there were weak 2/3 seeds out west, and an 8 seed Miami without one of their top players, with maybe one top 10 guy in Butler. They were relying on Kyle Lowry to create and make big shots. And if you're going to say Butler is a top player because of how he elevates in the playoffs, then Jokic had a top player on his team as well in Murray. Murray's playoff numbers 26/7/6 were basically identical to Butlers 27/6/6.

it's more than the best player in the league. Jokic was clearly the best, most impactful and most valuable player last season and he's doing the same this season tho I agree SGA is right there with him

as for the playoffs, if i go back to ur posts from before last season playoffs will I see u claiming that the West is weak? and that Jokic and Murray are gonna steamroll the West?

fwiw Dirk himself will tell you Jokic is a better player than Dirk

edit: p.s, that Heatles team had 3 elite players and two of those were MVP caliber players (who didn't actually fit that well and had pretty steep diminishing returns) but let's not act as if they weren't surrounded by scrubs and Dirk himself has basically net neutral advanced stats in the finals, for example. other guys stepped up as well.

OKC were very young, KD was 22, Russ was 22, Harden was 21 and Ibaka was 21, all the talent in the world can't change that.

you wanna tell urself that's so different from KD+Booker, AD+LBJ etc. you go right ahead..but it's not.

[hardenASG13]

they're both been immense and honestly are neck to neck, I could see arguments for either
I don't think the Nuggets are likely to repeat (tho they will have a chance, if healthy) but it would be glorious if SGA would win MVP and Jokic would go on to lead his team to another title

25 years later, Realgmers born in 2040 would try to examine this stretch of last few years an will be like: "dafuq?!"
failing to understand how the best player in the world got back to back MVPs and then was randomly slighted two years in a row, despite winning a ring in a Dirk-esque fashion in between

fwiw, SGA is right up there with him so it wouldn't be like last year where it was flat out wrong but still, it'd be pretty wild it it played out that way

The best player in the league has been passed on for MVP quite a bit historically, I'm not sure why this instance would be wild.

Also lol at the dirk-esque style title. They played nobody. Dirk led his team over OKC and the Heatles with prime LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Denver beat an old Lakers team that wasn't great last year and isn't this year, because there were weak 2/3 seeds out west, and an 8 seed Miami without one of their top players, with maybe one top 10 guy in Butler. They were relying on Kyle Lowry to create and make big shots. And if you're going to say Butler is a top player because of how he elevates in the playoffs, then Jokic had a top player on his team as well in Murray. Murray's playoff numbers 26/7/6 were basically identical to Butlers 27/6/6.

it's more than the best player in the league. Jokic was clearly the best, most impactful and most valuable player last season and he's doing the same this season tho I agree SGA is right there with him

as for the playoffs, if i go back to ur posts from before last season playoffs will I see u claiming that the West is weak? and that Jokic and Murray are gonna steamroll the West?

fwiw Dirk himself will tell you Jokic is a better player than Dirk

edit: p.s, that Heatles team had 3 elite players but let's not act as if they weren't surrounded by scrubs and Dirk himself has basically net neutral advanced stats in the finals and OKC were very young, KD was 22, Russ was 22, Harden was 21 and Ibaka was 21.

you wanna tell urself that's so different from KD+Booker, AD+LBJ etc. you go right ahead..but it's not.

Don't act like KD/Booker weren't surrounded by scrubs (extreme ones) either. And 34 year old KD and Devin Booker aren't as good as prime LeBron and Wade. Then throw in Bosh. As far as beating Lebron/AD, LeBron is LeBron by name only at this point. You have to realize that. You're lying to yourself if you think Denver played a single legit title worthy team in last years playoffs. OKC was young when Dallas beat them, yes. They also were very good, as shown by them making the finals the next year while still be very young, taking down the number 1 seed spurs without HCA.

Re: my posts before last year's playoffs. I don't know what you'll see. I know what happened though. The 2 and 3 seeds lost in the first round. Sac had an injury to Fox's hand, Memphis lost to LA. Neither were strong 2 and 3 seeds, and it wasnt a surprise either lost. Phoenix hadn't played much together, and it was evident in round 1 (where they struggled more than any good team should against the clippers with Kawhi and George) they weren't very good, and their supporting cast gave them no chance. CP3 was their third best player. He was what he is this year. In the east, Giannis got hurt/the Bucks lost to a team playing well like they always do, embiid got hurt, and Tatum got hurt in game 7 of the ECF. Denver meanwhile was fully healthy the entire playoffs, where they played an 8 seed, 4 seed, 7 seed and 8 seed.

I do agree Jokic and SGA are neck and neck this year. But the MVP is a narrative award that often isn't given to the same player over and over, whether they are the best/most impactful or not. That's why I'm on shock it's so heavily discussed here all season long.

[Exp0sed]

Don't act like KD/Booker weren't surrounded by scrubs (extreme ones) either. And 34 year old KD and Devin Booker aren't as good as prime LeBron and Wade. Then throw in Bosh. As far as beating Lebron/AD, LeBron is LeBron by name only at this point. You have to realize that. You're lying to yourself if you think Denver played a single legit title worthy team in last years playoffs. OKC was young when Dallas beat them, yes. They also were very good, as shown by them making the finals the next year while still be very young, taking down the number 1 seed spurs without HCA.

Re: my posts before last year's playoffs. I don't know what you'll see. I know what happened though. The 2 and 3 seeds lost in the first round. Sac had an injury to Fox's hand, Memphis lost to LA. Neither were strong 2 and 3 seeds, and it wasnt a surprise either lost. Phoenix hadn't played much together, and it was evident in round 1 (where they struggled more than any good team should against the clippers with Kawhi and George) they weren't very good, and their supporting cast gave them no chance. CP3 was their third best player. He was what he is this year. In the east, Giannis got hurt/the Bucks lost to a team playing well like they always do, embiid got hurt, and Tatum got hurt in game 7 of the ECF. Denver meanwhile was fully healthy the entire playoffs, where they played an 8 seed, 4 seed, 7 seed and 8 seed.

I do agree Jokic and SGA are neck and neck this year. But the MVP is a narrative award that often isn't given to the same player over and over, whether they are the best/most impactful or not. That's why I'm on shock it's so heavily discussed here all season long.

I agree with most of what you've said

KD was def 34 and PHX had a pretty scrubby rotation apart from CP3 and Ayton
as for the Lakers I disagree, while LBJ was obviously old he was the 2nd best player on the Lakers. after the deadline they were one of the best teams in the league, AD was playing like a fringe MVP candidate and he had an old but still very effective LBJ by his side with Reaves, D-lo, Rui, Schroeder, Vando etc. - that's a very strong team.

i'm not sure what constitutes a "legit title worthy team", do u have a cut-off or a criteria for that?

you can only play who you face, do you think Sac or Memphis would have beaten the Nuggets? I don't
as for the C's, Bucks etc we'll never know because they were both beaten by a team that played better a team that didn't pose any real challenge to the Nuggets

PHX may not have played much together but it didn't stop them from being something like 8-0 and undefeated in the rs when KD finally came back and all were healthy. KD is a top 10-15 player all time who was still playing at an extremely high level, prime Booker is a top 10 player, Ayton is surely overpaid and def a headcase and one lazy dude but he's not a scrub, he averaged like 18\10 on 60% from the field last season

it's a fair argument to say that Giannis was injured (and Bud was in mourning) and that Tatum got injured in game 7. Embiid was fine, he was just playoff Embiid. I doubt the C's would have beaten the Nuggets (less sure about the Bucks) but it's def possible, Denver def dodged a bullet by not having to play the two Eastern teams that had HCA over the Nuggets, that's for sure

I don't think the Nuggets had an easier road than the last few champions tbh
the seedings stuff is just an anomaly. PHX was 45-37 but hadn't been healthy in the rs, Booker player 53 games, KD played 8, Cp3 played 59 and they still managed the 4th seed and 45-37. the healthy team, the one that went 8-0 to end the season (which was the team the Nuggets played) was surely better than 45-37 and 4th seed. considerably better. they were also better than Sac and Memphis who had higher seeds.

same goes for the Lakers, who were atrocious all season long in doubt of even making the play-in until they got rid of WB, made their deadline moves and as u well know - they were a top team the rest of the way. calling them an 8th seed while factually true, is very disinegious and the same goes for Miami, who was clearly better than a typical 8th seed, right?

so the seeding part is just misleading

as for help, Murray played incredible but MPJ and AG were pretty sucky in the playoffs
that Dallas team had Dirk averageing 26 in the finals whle JT averaged 18..

Dirk may have been far and away the best scorer on that team, but he was counting on Marion and especially Tyson to rebound (with Kidd off the bench) and he was he dependant on other guys facilitating and defending - Jokic did everything during his run.
in the WCF h averaged basially 28\15\12 on good effiency, he had a Dreb% of over 32% and he was also huge on the defensive side of things

not for nothing he was the first player ever to lead an entire playoffs in PTS, Rebs AND assists. not just his team but overall.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[hardenASG13]

Don't act like KD/Booker weren't surrounded by scrubs (extreme ones) either. And 34 year old KD and Devin Booker aren't as good as prime LeBron and Wade. Then throw in Bosh. As far as beating Lebron/AD, LeBron is LeBron by name only at this point. You have to realize that. You're lying to yourself if you think Denver played a single legit title worthy team in last years playoffs. OKC was young when Dallas beat them, yes. They also were very good, as shown by them making the finals the next year while still be very young, taking down the number 1 seed spurs without HCA.

Re: my posts before last year's playoffs. I don't know what you'll see. I know what happened though. The 2 and 3 seeds lost in the first round. Sac had an injury to Fox's hand, Memphis lost to LA. Neither were strong 2 and 3 seeds, and it wasnt a surprise either lost. Phoenix hadn't played much together, and it was evident in round 1 (where they struggled more than any good team should against the clippers with Kawhi and George) they weren't very good, and their supporting cast gave them no chance. CP3 was their third best player. He was what he is this year. In the east, Giannis got hurt/the Bucks lost to a team playing well like they always do, embiid got hurt, and Tatum got hurt in game 7 of the ECF. Denver meanwhile was fully healthy the entire playoffs, where they played an 8 seed, 4 seed, 7 seed and 8 seed.

I do agree Jokic and SGA are neck and neck this year. But the MVP is a narrative award that often isn't given to the same player over and over, whether they are the best/most impactful or not. That's why I'm on shock it's so heavily discussed here all season long.

I agree with most of what you've said

KD was def 34 and PHX had a pretty scrubby rotation apart from CP3 and Ayton
as for the Lakers I disagree, while LBJ was obviously old he was the 2nd best player on the Lakers. after the deadline they were one of the best teams in the league, AD was playing like a fringe MVP candidate and he had an old but still very effective LBJ by his side with Reaves, D-lo, Rui, Schroeder, Vando etc. - that's a very strong team.

i'm not sure what constitutes a "legit title worthy team", do u have a cut-off or a criteria for that?

you can only play who you face, do you think Sac or Memphis would have beaten the Nuggets? I don't
as for the C's, Bucks etc we'll never know because they were both beaten by a team that played better a team that didn't pose any real challenge to the Nuggets

PHX may not have played much together but it didn't stop them from being something like 8-0 and undefeated in the rs when KD finally came back and all were healthy. KD is a top 10-15 player all time who was still playing at an extremely high level, prime Booker is a top 10 player, Ayton is surely overpaid and def a headcase and one lazy dude but he's not a scrub, he averaged like 18\10 on 60% from the field last season

it's a fair argument to say that Giannis was injured (and Bud was in mourning) and that Tatum got injured in game 7. Embiid was fine, he was just playoff Embiid. I doubt the C's would have beaten the Nuggets (less sure about the Bucks) but it's def possible, Denver def dodged a bullet by not having to play the two Eastern teams that had HCA over the Nuggets, that's for sure

I don't think the Nuggets had an easier road than the last few champions tbh
the seedings stuff is just an anomaly. PHX was 45-37 but hadn't been healthy in the rs, Booker player 53 games, KD played 8, Cp3 played 59 and they still managed the 4th seed and 45-37. the healthy team, the one that went 8-0 to end the season (which was the team the Nuggets played) was surely better than 45-37 and 4th seed. considerably better. they were also better than Sac and Memphis who had higher seeds.

same goes for the Lakers, who were atrocious all season long in doubt of even making the play-in until they got rid of WB, made their deadline moves and as u well know - they were a top team the rest of the way. calling them an 8th seed while factually true, is very disinegious and the same goes for Miami, who was clearly better than a typical 8th seed, right?

so the seeding part is just misleading

as for help, Murray played incredible but MPJ and AG were pretty sucky in the playoffs
that Dallas team had Dirk averageing 26 in the finals whle JT averaged 18..

Dirk may have been far and away the best scorer on that team, but he was counting on Marion and especially Tyson to rebound (with Kidd off the bench) and he was he dependant on other guys facilitating and defending - Jokic did everything during his run.
in the WCF h averaged basially 28\15\12 on good effiency, he had a Dreb% of over 32% and he was also huge on the defensive side of things

not for nothing he was the first player ever to lead an entire playoffs in PTS, Rebs AND assists. not just his team but overall.

No I don't think sac or Memphis would've beat Denver. The only team that would've had a chance was Boston imo. How they lost those first 3 games to Miami will remain a mystery to me. I don't think Miami was playing at nearly the same level by the time they got to Denver as they were earlier in the playoffs. I think it was a weak field last year, which is why I don't consider it a Dirk-esque run. They beat that OKC team which was extremely good and the heatles, and I think both of those teams would've steamrolled the same teams that Denver did last year. It seems there will be better matchups and competition this year. For example there is obviously Boston, and maybe 5 teams out west who are better than any team Denver faced in the playoffs last season if they are healthy (OKC, Minnesota, LAC, Phoenix, New Orleans).

[GeorgeSears]

Sidenote: Jokic is now tied with LeBron 15-15 in h2h matchups. Needed a 7-game winning streak to tie it up.

[TinmanZBoy]

Statistically, is Shai having a better or equally good season than Steph’s 2015-16 video game season?
I mean individual stats, and as a guard

[dygaction]

Statistically, is Shai having a better or equally good season than Steph’s 2015-16 video game season?
I mean individual stats, and as a guard

How come? SGA would be lucky if he wins MVP this season as it is super close whereas Curry was the unanimous MVP with prime LeBron, KD, Kawhi, Westbrook...
Curry was the scoring champion on 50/45/90 shooting with 11.2 3pa, that's draw dropping efficiency and they won 73 games.
As great as SGA's season is, Curry still had high PER, TS%, WS/48, BPM, VORP...