Pacers Pick Tracking (Update: #19 officially)

Boardbreaker · Post #601 » by **Boardbreaker** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 1:57 pm

Hield to McDermott has been a pretty big downgrade.

PhilBlackson · Post #602 » by **PhilBlackson** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 2:12 pm

I can’t get with people who are calling Hali or IND “frauds”….not that I ever thought they were true contenders. But Hali is CLEARLY playing through injury to try and qualify for a super max.

When he was/is healthy he’s easily one of the best PGs in the league and I’d absolutely kill to have a dude like him on this roster. Not sure how anyone could possibly not realize by his limited playing time that clearly something isn’t right with him:

Tha Cynic · Post #603 » by **Tha Cynic** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 2:13 pm

Los_29 wrote:
Tha Cynic wrote:Players also get hot for half a season and then cool off. How much of this is injury and how much is partly insane shooting regressing to the mean? The entire Pacers team lives and dies by the 3.

His percentages are not drastically down from the months he was healthy with the exception of his insane November. The difference is he’s playing a lot less minutes and his usage is down a lot. He’s not right.

He's shooting 32% from 3 since the start of the new year. I haven't looked back further to see when that started, and just chose this calendar year.

Psubs · Post #604 » by **Psubs** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 2:57 pm

PhilBlackson wrote:I can’t get with people who are calling Hali or IND “frauds”….not that I ever thought they were true contenders. But Hali is CLEARLY playing through injury to try and qualify for a super max.

When he was/is healthy he’s easily one of the best PGs in the league and I’d absolutely kill to have a dude like him on this roster. Not sure how anyone could possibly not realize by his limited playing time that clearly something isn’t right with him:

Exactly. All will see once he reaches 65 games and they shut him down to rest properly. Oh geez, he needs 16 more games and there are only 20 games left for the Pacers.

His games played will be 58, 77, 56, 65. Talent-wise, yes but does output have him deserve supermax if he can't regularly play over 60 games at over 90% health? He hasn't lead his team to an ECF, whereas at least Trae Young was able to drag the Hawks past the Bucks for 1 ECF appearance.

dagger · Post #605 » by **dagger** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 3:22 pm

With the schedule ahead for the Pacers, it's looking like a safe bet the pick won't be worse than 17th or 18th, though 16 looks reasonable right now. At best, they might catch the Heat.

MiamiSPX · Post #606 » by **MiamiSPX** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 3:36 pm

Boardbreaker wrote:Hield to McDermott has been a pretty big downgrade.

That trade made no sense unless they promised Hield they would move him. They traded a pending UFA they couldn't keep, for a pending UFA who is far inferior and they likely don't want to keep.

Psubs · Post #607 » by **Psubs** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 3:54 pm

MiamiSPX wrote:
Boardbreaker wrote:Hield to McDermott has been a pretty big downgrade.

That trade made no sense unless they promised Hield they would move him. They traded a pending UFA they couldn't keep, for a pending UFA who is far inferior and they likely don't want to keep.

They had so many guards, so this freed up playing time and got a forward back that should be similar.

Bruin · Post #608 » by **Bruin** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 5:52 pm

Need the Mavs to win tomorrow. Would put the Pacers 1.5 games back of the 16th pick. Assuming the Heat beat the Pistons, which they should

AkelaLoneWolf · Post #609 » by **AkelaLoneWolf** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 6:35 pm

dagger wrote:With the schedule ahead for the Pacers, it's looking like a safe bet the pick won't be worse than 17th or 18th, though 16 looks reasonable right now. At best, they might catch the Heat.

Miami and Orlando both have very easy schedules to end the season. And lakers and gsw are trying to avoid the play in.

dkb964 · Post #610 » by **dkb964** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 9:18 pm

If the Pacers get bounced in the play-in and have some lottery luck and finish in the iop 3 do the Raptors flat out lose the pick or does it roll over to next year?

Mak · Post #611 » by **Mak** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 9:44 pm

dkb964 wrote:If the Pacers get bounced in the play-in and have some lottery luck and finish in the iop 3 do the Raptors flat out lose the pick or does it roll over to next year?

They get second round pick. Can't do a roll over in this case, because you technically can't trade consecutive picks. Because they traded 2026 to us, you cant factor in a roll over to 2025.

It would be pretty crazy if Pacers get top 3, draft is not dep but that could be franchise changing lottery luck.

dkb964 · Post #612 » by **dkb964** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 10:17 pm

Mak wrote:
dkb964 wrote:If the Pacers get bounced in the play-in and have some lottery luck and finish in the iop 3 do the Raptors flat out lose the pick or does it roll over to next year?

They get second round pick. Can't do a roll over in this case, because you technically can't trade consecutive picks. Because they traded 2026 to us, you cant factor in a roll over to 2025.

It would be pretty crazy if Pacers get top 3, draft is not dep but that could be franchise changing lottery luck.

It would make the Siakam trade a disaster. Thank you for letting me know this though. It makes me want them to finish 8th rather then say 11th and risk losing the pick. Is it crazy to think that way?

dkb964 · Post #613 » by **dkb964** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 10:21 pm

dkb964 wrote:
Mak wrote:
dkb964 wrote:If the Pacers get bounced in the play-in and have some lottery luck and finish in the iop 3 do the Raptors flat out lose the pick or does it roll over to next year?

They get second round pick. Can't do a roll over in this case, because you technically can't trade consecutive picks. Because they traded 2026 to us, you cant factor in a roll over to 2025.

It would be pretty crazy if Pacers get top 3, draft is not dep but that could be franchise changing lottery luck.

It would make the Siakam trade a disaster. Thank you for letting me know this though. It makes me want them to finish 8th rather then say 11th and risk losing the pick. Is it crazy to think that way? I have no idea what to think when it comes to these picks and protection and which draft class is better. It gives me a headache. I am looking forward to when there is some clarity though.

And1Skip · Post #614 » by **And1Skip** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 10:31 pm

dkb964 wrote:
dkb964 wrote:
Mak wrote:
They get second round pick. Can't do a roll over in this case, because you technically can't trade consecutive picks. Because they traded 2026 to us, you cant factor in a roll over to 2025.

It would be pretty crazy if Pacers get top 3, draft is not dep but that could be franchise changing lottery luck.

It would make the Siakam trade a disaster. Thank you for letting me know this though. It makes me want them to finish 8th rather then say 11th and risk losing the pick. Is it crazy to think that way? I have no idea what to think when it comes to these picks and protection and which draft class is better. It gives me a headache. I am looking forward to when there is some clarity though.

There are 9 games ahead of the 11th place team Nets. There's virtually no chance they will finish 11th. At worst they will be 8th where they are now and have 2 shots in the Play-In to make the playoffs. If they lose twice, the don't make the playoffs and most likely their pick would be 14th or 13th which only have a 1-3% chance of getting into top 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

billy_hoyle · Post #615 » by **billy_hoyle** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 11:20 pm

And1Skip wrote:
dkb964 wrote:
dkb964 wrote:

It would make the Siakam trade a disaster. Thank you for letting me know this though. It makes me want them to finish 8th rather then say 11th and risk losing the pick. Is it crazy to think that way? I have no idea what to think when it comes to these picks and protection and which draft class is better. It gives me a headache. I am looking forward to when there is some clarity though.

There are 9 games ahead of the 11th place team Nets. There's virtually no chance they will finish 11th. At worst they will be 8th where they are now and have 2 shots in the Play-In to make the playoffs. If they lose twice, the don't make the playoffs and most likely their pick would be 14th or 13th which only have a 1-3% chance of getting into top 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

We want them to be as bad as possible. In all likelihood they will have a max ~5.1% chance at keeping the pick. There's no way they end up below the Jazz.

I'd take 95% chance ( and more likely 99% chance) if it meant moving up to the end of the lottery.

That would be dope when I thought we'd have a low 20's pick after the trade.

Siakam for two late lottery picks and a former late lottery pick (Ochai) isn't that bad.

And1Skip · Post #616 » by **And1Skip** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 11:54 pm

billy_hoyle wrote:
And1Skip wrote:
dkb964 wrote:
It would make the Siakam trade a disaster. Thank you for letting me know this though. It makes me want them to finish 8th rather then say 11th and risk losing the pick. Is it crazy to think that way? I have no idea what to think when it comes to these picks and protection and which draft class is better. It gives me a headache. I am looking forward to when there is some clarity though.

There are 9 games ahead of the 11th place team Nets. There's virtually no chance they will finish 11th. At worst they will be 8th where they are now and have 2 shots in the Play-In to make the playoffs. If they lose twice, the don't make the playoffs and most likely their pick would be 14th or 13th which only have a 1-3% chance of getting into top 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

We want them to be as bad as possible. In all likelihood they will have a max ~5.1% chance at keeping the pick. There's no way they end up below the Jazz.

I'd take 95% chance ( and more likely 99% chance) if it meant moving up to the end of the lottery.

That would be dope when I thought we'd have a low 20's pick after the trade.

Siakam for two late lottery picks and a former late lottery pick (Ochai) isn't that bad.

Well of course. The only time that's happened under the new lottery odds is 2019 (first year of these odds) when Atlanta had the 11th worst record and jumped to the #4 pick. 2.8% odds. Of course, that would be amazing for us since the Indy pick is top 3 protected.

billy_hoyle · Post #617 » by **billy_hoyle** » Mon Mar 4, 2024 11:57 pm

And1Skip wrote:
billy_hoyle wrote:
And1Skip wrote:
There are 9 games ahead of the 11th place team Nets. There's virtually no chance they will finish 11th. At worst they will be 8th where they are now and have 2 shots in the Play-In to make the playoffs. If they lose twice, the don't make the playoffs and most likely their pick would be 14th or 13th which only have a 1-3% chance of getting into top 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

We want them to be as bad as possible. In all likelihood they will have a max ~5.1% chance at keeping the pick. There's no way they end up below the Jazz.

I'd take 95% chance ( and more likely 99% chance) if it meant moving up to the end of the lottery.

That would be dope when I thought we'd have a low 20's pick after the trade.

Siakam for two late lottery picks and a former late lottery pick (Ochai) isn't that bad.

Well of course. The only time that's happened under the new lottery odds is 2019 (first year of these odds) when Atlanta had the 11th worst record and jumped to the #4 pick. 2.8% odds. Of course, that would be amazing for us since the Indy pick is top 3 protected.

I was agreeing with your point. The odds are there. The records are pretty much set.

We want them to keep losing. Not a significant chance we lose the pick.

4th pick would be awesome. Basically covers the worth of Siakam in one asset (I think he's worth a top 5-10 pick).

bballsparkin · Post #618 » by **bballsparkin** » Tue Mar 5, 2024 1:31 am

If the Pacers pick jumped to 4th boy would that be stressful waiting knowing that the pick was in the top 4.

ConSarnit · Post #619 » by **ConSarnit** » Tue Mar 5, 2024 3:41 pm

bballsparkin wrote:If the Pacers pick jumped to 4th boy would that be stressful waiting knowing that the pick was in the top 4.

In a way the Pacers jumping would be worst case scenario. If they jump that means there'll be about a 70% chance they jumped into the top 3. If the Pacers finish 13th in lotto odds (I think mathematically about the worst they can finish) then we're looking at odds of:

13: 92.9%
14: 2.3%

4: 1.4%
1-3: 3.3%

If the Pacers jump to the top 4 there is only a 29% chance we keep the pick.

LarSiN · Post #620 » by **LarSiN** » Tue Mar 5, 2024 3:57 pm

billy_hoyle wrote:
And1Skip wrote:
dkb964 wrote:
It would make the Siakam trade a disaster. Thank you for letting me know this though. It makes me want them to finish 8th rather then say 11th and risk losing the pick. Is it crazy to think that way? I have no idea what to think when it comes to these picks and protection and which draft class is better. It gives me a headache. I am looking forward to when there is some clarity though.

There are 9 games ahead of the 11th place team Nets. There's virtually no chance they will finish 11th. At worst they will be 8th where they are now and have 2 shots in the Play-In to make the playoffs. If they lose twice, the don't make the playoffs and most likely their pick would be 14th or 13th which only have a 1-3% chance of getting into top 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

We want them to be as bad as possible. In all likelihood they will have a max ~5.1% chance at keeping the pick. There's no way they end up below the Jazz.

I'd take 95% chance ( and more likely 99% chance) if it meant moving up to the end of the lottery.

That would be dope when I thought we'd have a low 20's pick after the trade.

Siakam for two late lottery picks and a former late lottery pick (Ochai) isn't that bad.

Plus not paying him the max