Cstarski wrote:It must be such a coincidence that every team in contention now or have WON a chip in the last 24 years either drafted their best or second best player.
Right off the top of my head, bubbles Lakers didn't draft LBJ nor AD. So I decided to take a look back at the last 24 champions:
Def Not:
19-20 Lakers: LBJ & AD
03-04 Pistons: Billups, Ben, Rip all spent their first 3+ years on other teams
Arguable:
18-19: Kawhi & Lowry/Siakam: Is the up and coming 24yo Siakam really better than the prime Lowry? Doubtful
07-08: KG & PP/RayRay
This makes 3 or 4 years out of 24, it makes your premise inaccurate but that's not why I dislike your argument.
1. Championships in the last 24 years had been dominated by megastars like Duncan, LBJ (with Wade or Kyrie), Curry, Kobe, etc. Saying that majority of the championship teams draft their best or second best players is simply reiterating those are great players and they are in competent organizations that built around them.
2. Your argument has a bit of a survivorship bias. For every team that fit your criteria and won the chip, there are many more that didn't.
As another counter-argument, Below is a list of teams that currently meet your criteria:
Hawks: Trae
Celtics: Tatum/Brown
Nets: Claxton
Hornets: Melo
Bulls: Lavine (arguable but most would agree he's better than Vuc)
Cavs: Mobley or Garland
Mavs: Luka
Nuggets: Jokic/Murray
Pistons: Cade
Warriors: Curry
Rockets: Sengun
Pacers: Turner
Heat: Bam
Grizzlies: Morant/JJJ/Bane
Bucks: Giannis
Wolves: Ant/Towns
Pelicans: Zion/Ingram
Thunders: SGA/Chet
Magic: Wagner/Banchero
76ers: Embiid/Maxey
Suns: Booker
Blazers: Simons (I don't think one can argue he's worse than both Grant and Ayton)
Kings: Fox
Spurs: Wemby
Raptors: Barnes
That's 25 out of 30 teams having at least one of their top 2 players via draft! Teams that drafted stars simply try to hold on to them for as long as they can. So obviously chances are much higher that one of those 25 teams will win the chip. Like history suggests, 20 or 21 of the last 24 champions meet this criteria.
The 5 teams that don't meet the criteria is a mix of good and bad teams:
Clippers
Lakers
Knicks
Jazz
Wizards